Background Requirements and Guidance Related to Federal Workforce Diversity Title VII of the Civil Rights Act of 1964 and Section 501 of the Rehabilitation Act of 1973 mandate that all federal personnel decisions be made without discrimination on the basis of race, color, religion, sex, national origin, or disability and require that agencies establish a program of equal employment opportunity for all federal employees and applicants. EEOC has oversight responsibility for federal agencies’ compliance with EEOC regulations, which direct agencies to maintain a continuing affirmative program to promote equal opportunity and to identify and eliminate discriminatory practices and policies. In order to implement the programs described above, each federal agency is required to designate an EEO director. The EEO director’s responsibilities include, among others, providing for counseling of aggrieved individuals, providing for the receipt and processing of individual and class complaints of discrimination, and advising agency leadership regarding equal employment opportunity matters. EEOC calls for federal agencies to conduct a continuing campaign to eradicate every form of prejudice or discrimination from the agency’s personnel policies, practices, and working conditions. EEOC’s Management Directive 715 (MD-715) calls for agencies to take appropriate steps to ensure that all employment decisions are free from discrimination and provides policy guidance and standards for establishing and maintaining effective affirmative programs of equal employment opportunity. The directive also sets forth the standards by which EEOC will review the sufficiency of agencies’ Title VII and Rehabilitation Act programs, including periodic agency self-assessments and the removal of barriers to free and open workplace competition. MD- 715 guidance further requires agencies to report annually on the status of activities undertaken pursuant to their equal employment opportunity programs and activities. Federal agencies are required to submit an annual MD-715 report to EEOC on the status of their EEO programs. In addition to including employee demographic data, among other things, the MD-715 reports are to include an agency self-assessment checklist, plans to correct any program deficiencies, and a description of any barrier analysis conducted and any plans to eliminate identified barriers. As part of a model EEO program to prevent unlawful discrimination, federal agencies are to regularly evaluate their employment practices to identify barriers to EEO in the workplace, take measures to eliminate identified barriers, and report annually on these efforts to EEOC, according to MD-715. EEOC’s MD-715 defines a barrier as an agency policy, procedure, practice, or condition that limits, or tends to limit, employment opportunities for members of a particular gender, race, or ethnic background or for individuals on the basis of disability status. According to EEOC’s MD-715 instructions, many employment barriers are built into the organizational and operational structures of an agency and are embedded in the agency’s day-to-day procedures and practices. USAID’s Efforts to Increase Workforce Diversity USAID’s Office of Civil Rights and Diversity (OCRD) administers programs intended to promote equal opportunity, foster diversity at all levels and occupations, and sustain an inclusive workforce. According to USAID, OCRD strives to maintain a model EEO program. As table 1 shows, OCRD consists of the Complaints and Resolution Division, the Reasonable Accommodations Division, the Diversity and Inclusion Division, and the Program Operations Division. OCRD collaborates with the Office of Human Capital and Talent Management (HCTM) to develop and implement recruitment strategies intended to support a diverse and well-qualified workforce; consults with agency officials such as the Executive Diversity Council; partners with USAID employee resource groups to extend outreach opportunities and develop strategies of inclusion within USAID; and addresses allegations of discrimination, harassment, or retaliation. Recruitment According to a June 2019 testimony by USAID’s Chief Human Capital Officer, OCRD collaborates with HCTM on the following recruitment programs intended to increase diversity: Donald Payne International Development Fellowship. Launched in 2012, the Donald Payne International Development Fellowship targets underrepresented groups in USAID’s Foreign Service. According to USAID officials, the purpose of the Payne Fellowship is to enhance diversity in the Foreign Service through outreach and strategic efforts focused on minority serving institutions. USAID provides support for selected candidates for 2 years of graduate school as well as an internship on Capitol Hill and another at a USAID mission overseas. On completion of the graduate program and internships, the selected candidate is appointed as a Foreign Service officer with a 5-year service agreement. According to USAID, each year the Payne Fellowship supports 10 fellows entering USAID’s Foreign Service. Development Diplomats in Residence. Established in 2016, the Development Diplomats in Residence program aims to educate, recruit, and channel talent to USAID by placing senior USAID officials at universities. These officials provide guidance and advice on careers, internships, and fellowships to students, professionals, and faculty members at minority-serving institutions. Two USAID career Senior Foreign Service officers serve in this role at California State University, Long Beach, and at Morehouse College, respectively. Pathways Internship Program. The Pathways Internship Program provides targeted diversity recruitment, salaries, and payments for Pathways Interns, according to the USAID Chief Human Capital Officer’s June 2019 testimony. The testimony states that the overall racial or ethnic minority representation rate in fiscal year 2018 for the Pathways Internship Program was 69 percent and that Hispanics, at 31 percent, represented the largest minority demographic. USAID officials said that the agency views its internship programs as a succession-planning tool designed to convert as many internships as possible into full-time positions. According to USAID, the agency had no Pathways Interns in 2019, as a result of funding limitations, but as of April 2020 was planning 21 internships for 2020. Training and Career Development USAID provides training as well as a formal mentoring program intended to support diversity and inclusion, according to USAID officials. OCRD is responsible for providing mandatory agency-wide training on diversity awareness and equal opportunity. USAID officials stated that the agency has mandatory and nonmandatory training on diversity and inclusion issues. For example, USAID provides online mandatory training classes on the No FEAR Act and sexual harassment. According to USAID data, 326 people took versions of these courses in 2019. USAID also offers nonmandatory in-person classes such as EEO counselor training and unconscious bias training. In 2019, 17 people took EEO counselor training, and 36 people took USAID’s in-person unconscious bias training. Additionally, USAID officials said that external partners of USAID have developed training related to diversity and inclusion, to which OCRD refers employees on request. According to USAID, the agency’s mentoring programs build on informal mentoring efforts and support strategic human capital initiatives for recruitment and retention, employee development, succession planning, and diversity. USAID officials stated that the mentoring program includes a facilitated process for matching mentors and mentees, formal mentoring training, an established tracking system, and goals used to measure success. According to the officials, the mentoring program is open to all employees. USAID Workforce Categories USAID reported to Congress on its workforce categories in 2018. USAID defines its core workforce as those who have an employer– employee relationship with the agency. This includes the following employment categories: Civil Service employees. USAID’s Civil Service employees are U.S. U.S. Personal Services Contractors U.S. personal services contractors represent a significant and growing proportion of USAID’s workforce whose demographic composition is not included in USAID’s Management Directive 715 reports. As we reported in 2017, USAID uses personal services contractors for a broader range of functions than other agencies, as its regulations permit (see GAO-17-610). Those regulations provide that personal services contractors who are U.S. citizens may be delegated or assigned any authority, duty, or responsibility that direct-hire government employees might have, although they generally cannot supervise direct-hire government employees or sign obligating documents except when specifically designated as a contracting officer. Until recently, when looking to fill a vacancy through outside hiring or by promotions and reassignments, USAID bureaus and offices had to submit that action to USAID’s Hiring and Reassignment Review Board for review. The board’s guidelines exempted personal services contracts from review and approval. In April 2020, USAID officials told us that hiring decisions no longer required the board’s approval. From June 2016 to September 2018, U.S. personal services contractors were USAID’s fastest growing workforce category, increasing from 759 to 1,015 according to USAID’s staffing reports to Congress. During this period, USAID’s Civil and Foreign Service employees decreased from 3,548 to 3,002. contractors are non–direct hire U.S. citizens on contract for the specific services of those individuals. As we reported in 2017, USAID uses personal services contracts for a broad range of functions, such as program management, security analysis, and logistics. According to its staffing report to Congress, USAID had 1,015 U.S. personal services contractors at the end of fiscal year 2018. Foreign nationals. USAID’s foreign national employees are non–U.S. citizens who are locally employed at posts abroad. They may be direct hires or personal services contractors. USAID uses foreign nationals to manage mission operations and oversee development activities. According to its staffing report to Congress, USAID had 4,712 foreign national employees at the end of fiscal year 2018. While USAID collects demographic data on U.S. personal services contractors for its payroll processor, it does not analyze this information. USAID does not report these data, because USAID does not regard personal services contractors as U.S. government employees. USAID officials noted that current reporting requirements call only for demographics of direct-hire employees, which excludes a considerable portion of the agency’s workforce. Other categories of staff not directly employed by USAID, including institutional support contractors and staff detailed from other organizations and U.S. government agencies, also perform a wide range of services in support of the agency’s programs. According to its staffing report to Congress, USAID had 1,681 institutional support contractors at the end of fiscal year 2018. EEOC has determined that contractors are a vulnerable group because of confusion as to where such personnel should seek redress for EEO matters. However, according to OCRD officials, OCRD is responsible for EEO matters for both direct and non– direct hires, including contractors. Figure 1 shows the total number of staff in each of USAID’s workforce categories in fiscal year 2018. National Finance Center Data on USAID Civil and Foreign Service Promotions, Fiscal Years 2002-2018 In fiscal year 2018, USAID had 2,964 full-time, permanent, career employees (i.e., direct-hire U.S.-citizens) in its Civil and Foreign Services, according to National Finance Center data. This number reflects an increase of more than 54 percent from fiscal year 2002. Figure 2 shows the numbers of full-time, permanent, career employees in USAID’s Civil and Foreign Services in fiscal years 2002 through 2018. Civil Service USAID’s Civil Service made up 44 percent of the agency’s full-time, permanent, career workforce in fiscal year 2018. Civil Service employees are ranked in the GS classification system from GS-1 (lowest) to GS-15 (highest), followed by the executive rank. Civil Service promotions are filled through competitive procedures and noncompetitive career-ladder positions. To be eligible for a promotion, Civil Service candidates must meet minimum qualification standards such as fulfilling time-in-grade requirements and receiving sufficiently positive ratings on their most recent performance appraisals. For competitive promotion positions, USAID uses an automated system to evaluate and rate all eligible candidates and develop referral lists of employees eligible for the promotions. Officials interview all direct-hire USAID employees from the promotion referral lists and select employees for promotion on the basis of the announcement. Career-ladder positions are intended to prepare employees for successive, noncompetitive promotions up to the full performance of the positions. For career-ladder positions, USAID officials select employees for noncompetitive promotions and are responsible for developing individual learning and training plans, offering developmental work, and providing feedback regarding employees’ performance. Each year, USAID promotes varying numbers of Civil Service employees. Promotion generally becomes more competitive for higher ranks. For example, in fiscal year 2018, 45.3 percent of employees ranked GS-11 in fiscal year 2017 were promoted to GS-12, while 1.0 percent of employees ranked GS-15 in fiscal year 2017 were promoted to the executive rank. Table 2 shows the number and percentage of employees in each Civil Service rank as well as the rate of promotion from each GS level for promotions effective in fiscal year 2018. Foreign Service Foreign Service employees made up 56 percent of USAID’s full-time, permanent, career workforce in fiscal year 2018. Foreign Service officers enter at Class 4, 5, or 6, depending on their education and experience. Officers can be promoted from each level up to Class 1, after which they can apply for the executive rank. Foreign Service promotions are based on employee eligibility, a rank- ordered list prepared by a performance board, and the number of promotions authorized by USAID management. To be promoted to the next class, Foreign Service employees must meet eligibility requirements, such as time in their current class and overseas experience. Each year, performance boards evaluate the performance of eligible employees in Class 4 and higher, develop a rank-ordered list of employees recommended for promotion, and submit the list to HCTM. According to USAID policy, performance boards primarily consist of Foreign Service employees and, to the extent possible, include members of groups that are underrepresented in the service. The Chief Human Capital Officer, the Director of OCRD, and a representative of the American Foreign Service Association review the list before finalizing promotion decisions. USAID promotes varying numbers of its Foreign Service employees each year. Promotion generally becomes more competitive for higher ranks. For example, in fiscal year 2018, 33.2 percent of employees ranked Class 4 in fiscal year 2017 were promoted to Class 3, while 3.9 percent of employees ranked Class 1 in fiscal year 2017 were promoted to the executive rank. Table 3 shows the number and percentage of employees in each Foreign Service rank in fiscal year 2018 as well as the rate of promotion from each rank for promotions effective in that fiscal year. USAID’s Hiring Reassignment and Review Board According to USAID’s Chief Human Capital Officer, USAID established the Hiring and Reassignment Review Board (HRRB) in July 2017 as a mechanism to allow USAID to prioritize positions during the government- wide hiring freeze and a subsequent period when all USAID external hires required approval from the Secretary of State. In fiscal years 2017 through 2019, the HRRB met regularly and was responsible for prioritizing U.S. direct-hire positions, monitoring attrition levels, and identifying gaps in national security and other key positions. According to June 2019 guidelines, the HRRB was required to review certain hiring and reassignment actions. Such actions included filling vacancies externally by hiring individuals from outside the agency, using operating expense funding, and filling vacancies internally by reassigning operating expense–funded Civil Service staff between the bureaus and independent offices. Hiring and reassignment actions exempted from HRRB review included, among others, hiring to compensate for attrition in certain defined high-risk mission-critical occupations, hiring into program- funded positions, Foreign Service limited appointments, personal services contracts, and institutional support contracts. According to USAID’s strategic workforce plan for fiscal years 2019 through 2021, USAID planned to have the HRRB, the Office of the Administrator, HCTM, and the Bureau for Management set broader staffing levels for the agency’s bureaus and independent offices beginning by the first quarter of fiscal year 2020. The workforce plan also states that a renamed HRRB would shift to serving as a strategic human capital governance board rather than performing position-by- position reviews. In April 2020, USAID officials told us that hiring decisions no longer required HRRB approval. Diversity of USAID Workforce Has Generally Increased Overall Proportion of Racial or Ethnic Minorities Increased, although Proportion of African Americans Declined Overall Proportion of Racial or Ethnic Minorities at USAID Increased From fiscal year 2002 to fiscal year 2018, the proportion of racial or ethnic minorities among USAID’s full-time, permanent, career employees increased from 33 percent to 37 percent, as figure 3 shows. This increase in the proportion of racial or ethnic minorities at USAID overall was driven by an increase in the proportion of racial or ethnic minorities in the Foreign Service. During this period, the proportion of racial or ethnic minorities in the Civil Service decreased slightly, from 49 to 48 percent and the proportion of racial or ethnic minorities in the Foreign Service increased from 18 to 27 percent. Proportion of Racial or Ethnic Minorities Was Nearly the Same as in Federal Workforce and Higher Than in Relevant Civilian Labor Force We compared the proportions of racial or ethnic minorities in USAID’s workforce with those in the federal workforce and relevant civilian labor force. Our comparison of USAID workforce data for fiscal year 2018 with federal workforce data for fiscal year 2017—the most recent available— found that the proportion of racial or ethnic minorities was 37 percent both at USAID and in the federal workforce. For more details, see appendix III. The proportion of racial or ethnic minorities at USAID increased from 33 percent in fiscal year 2002 to 37 percent in fiscal year 2018. In comparison, the proportion of racial or ethnic minorities in the federal workforce increased from 31 percent in fiscal year 2002 to 37 percent in fiscal year 2017. Our comparison of USAID workforce data from fiscal year 2018 with data for the relevant civilian labor force from 2006 through 2010 (the most recent available data) found larger proportions of racial or ethnic minorities at USAID than in the relevant civilian labor force for three occupational groups: (1) officials and managers, (2) professional workers, and (3) technical workers and technologists. For more details, see appendix III. Proportions of Hispanics, Asians, and Other Racial or Ethnic Minorities Increased, while Proportion of African Americans Decreased Although the overall proportion of racial or ethnic minorities at USAID increased from fiscal year 2002 to fiscal year 2018, the direction of change for specific racial or ethnic minority groups varied—the proportions of Hispanics, Asians, and other racial or ethnic minorities rose, while the proportion of African Americans fell. As figure 3 shows, from fiscal year 2002 to fiscal year 2018, the proportion of Hispanics at USAID rose from 3 to 6 percent; Asians, from 4 to 7 percent; and other racial or ethnic minorities, from 1 to 2 percent of USAID employees. In contrast, during the same period the proportion of African Americans fell from 26 to 21 percent of the agency’s employees. Our analysis found that the overall decline in the proportion of African Americans at USAID reflected a substantial decline in the proportion of African Americans in USAID’s Civil Service. The proportion of African Americans in USAID’s Civil Service decreased from 42 percent in fiscal year 2002 to 32 percent in fiscal year 2018. The proportion of African Americans in USAID’s Foreign Service increased from 11 percent to 12 percent over the same period. In contrast to the proportion of African Americans, the proportions of Hispanics, Asians, and other racial or ethnic minorities at USAID increased in both the Civil and Foreign Services from fiscal year 2002 to fiscal year 2018. Proportions of Racial or Ethnic Minorities in Civil and Foreign Services Were Generally Smaller in Higher Ranks Our analysis of USAID data for fiscal year 2018 found that the proportions of racial or ethnic minority employees generally decreased as rank increased. As figure 4 shows, the proportions of racial or ethnic minorities in the Civil Service in fiscal year 2018 were progressively smaller in each rank above GS-12, except at the executive rank, where the proportion of racial or ethnic minorities was larger than in GS-15. Specifically, the proportions of racial or ethnic minorities decreased from 77 percent in GS-12 to 31 percent in GS-15. Our analysis similarly found that, in general, the proportions of racial or ethnic minorities in the Foreign Service in fiscal year 2018 were progressively smaller in all ranks above Class 6. In fiscal year 2002, the proportion of racial or ethnic minorities was also generally smaller at higher ranks in both the Civil and Foreign Services. Overall Proportion of Women Increased Proportion of Women Increased Overall, Rising in Foreign Service While Declining in Civil Service From fiscal year 2002 to fiscal year 2018, the proportion of women at USAID increased from 51 to 54 percent, as figure 5 shows. Our analysis found that the overall increase in the proportion of women at USAID reflected a growth in the proportion of women in the Foreign Service. Specifically: The proportion of women in the Civil Service decreased from 66 percent in fiscal year 2002 to 61 percent in fiscal year 2018. The proportion of women in the Foreign Service increased from 38 percent in fiscal year 2002 to 49 percent in fiscal year 2018. Proportion of Women Was Higher Than in Federal Workforce but Mixed in Comparison with Relevant Civilian Labor Force We compared the proportion of women at USAID with the proportions of women in the federal workforce and relevant civilian labor force. Our comparison of USAID workforce data for fiscal year 2018 with federal government workforce data for 2017 found the following: The proportion of women at USAID in fiscal year 2018 (54 percent) was higher than the proportion of women in the federal workforce in fiscal year 2017 (43 percent). The proportion of women at USAID increased from 51 percent in fiscal year 2002 to 54 percent in fiscal year 2018. In contrast, the proportion of women in the federal workforce decreased slightly, from 44 percent in fiscal year 2002 to 43 percent in fiscal year 2017. Our comparison of USAID workforce data for fiscal year 2018 with data from the relevant civilian labor force for 2006 through 2010 (the most recent available data) found that the proportions of women were higher at USAID than in the relevant civilian labor force for two occupational groups—(1) officials and managers and (2) technical workers and technologists. However, the proportion of women was lower at USAID than in the relevant civilian labor force for professional workers. For more details, see appendix III. Proportions of Women in Civil and Foreign Services Were Generally Smaller in Higher Ranks As figure 6 shows, our analysis of USAID data for fiscal year 2018 for the Civil Service found progressively smaller proportions of women in each rank above GS-11. The proportions of women ranged from 75 percent in GS-11 or lower ranks to 43 percent in the executive rank. Additionally, data for fiscal year 2018 for the Foreign Service show overall smaller proportions of women in the higher ranks. Specifically, women made up 55 percent of employees in Class 4 or lower ranks but 48 percent of Foreign Service executives. In fiscal year 2002, the proportion of women was also generally smaller in higher ranks in both the Civil and Foreign Services. Promotion Outcomes Were Lower for Racial or Ethnic Minorities Than Whites in Early to Mid Career, but Differences Were Generally Statistically Significant Only in Civil Service Our analyses of USAID data on promotions in fiscal years 2002 through 2017 found lower promotion outcomes for racial or ethnic minorities than for whites in early to mid career. We found these differences when conducting descriptive analyses, which calculated simple average promotion rates, as well as adjusted analyses, which controlled for certain individual and occupational factors other than racial or ethnic minority status that could influence promotion. Promotion rates were generally lower for racial or ethnic minorities than for whites in both the Civil and Foreign Services, although the differences shown by our adjusted analyses were generally statistically significant only in the Civil Service. However, our analyses do not completely explain the reasons for differences in promotion outcomes, which may result from various unobservable factors. Thus, our analyses do not establish a causal relationship between demographic characteristics and promotion outcomes. Civil Service Promotion Outcomes Were Lower for Racial or Ethnic Minorities Than for Whites in Early to Mid Career Both our descriptive analysis and adjusted analysis of data for USAID’s Civil Service found that promotion rates were lower for racial or ethnic minorities than for whites in early to mid career, as table 4 shows. In addition, our adjusted analysis found that racial or ethnic minorities in USAID’s Civil Service had lower odds of promotion than their white counterparts. As table 4 shows, our descriptive analysis of the data for USAID’s Civil Service found that the average percentage of racial or ethnic minorities promoted from ranks GS-11 through GS-14 was lower than the average percentage of whites promoted from the same ranks. For example, our descriptive analysis found that in fiscal years 2002 through 2017, an average of 38.9 percent of racial or ethnic minorities were promoted from GS-11 to GS-12, compared with an average of 69.9 percent of whites. This difference of 31.0 percentage points indicates that the average rate of promotion from GS-11 to GS-12 was 44.4 percent lower for racial or ethnic minorities than for whites. In addition, our analysis of yearly promotion rates in the Civil Service for fiscal years 2013 through 2017 showed that the rate of promotion from GS-11 and higher ranks was greater for whites than for racial or ethnic minorities for every rank and year, except for promotions from GS-15 to the executive class in fiscal years 2013, 2014, and 2016. However, our descriptive analysis does not account for the variety of factors besides racial or ethnic minority status, such as occupation, that may affect promotion rates. Our adjusted analysis of the data for USAID’s Civil Service, controlling for certain factors other than racial or ethnic minority status that could influence promotion, found that racial or ethnic minorities had lower adjusted rates and lower odds of promotion from each rank from GS-11 through GS-14 than their white counterparts. Specifically, our adjusted analysis of USAID data on promotions in fiscal years 2002 through 2017 found the following: The average adjusted rate of promotion from GS-11 to GS-12 for racial or ethnic minorities was 46.8 percent, compared with an average of 55.8 percent for whites. This statistically significant difference indicates that the odds of promotion from GS-11 to GS-12 in the Civil Service were 41.4 percent lower for racial or ethnic minorities than for whites. Our estimates of the adjusted rates and odds of promotion from GS- 12 to GS-13 and from GS-13 to GS-14 were also statistically significantly lower for racial or ethnic minorities than for whites. There was no statistically significant difference in the odds of promotion from GS-14 to GS-15 or from GS-15 to the executive rank for racial or ethnic minorities relative to whites in the Civil Service. Compared with our descriptive analysis, our adjusted analysis found smaller percentage differences in promotion outcomes for racial or ethnic minorities relative to whites in the Civil Service. Figure 7 shows key results of our descriptive and adjusted analyses of USAID data for racial or ethnic minorities and whites in USAID’s Civil Service. Foreign Service Promotion Outcomes Were Lower for Racial or Ethnic Minorities in Early to Mid Career, but Differences Were Generally Not Statistically Significant When We Controlled for Various Factors As table 5 shows, our descriptive analysis of data for USAID’s Foreign Service found that the rate of promotion was generally lower for racial or ethnic minorities than for whites. In addition, our adjusted analysis found differences between the promotion rates for racial or ethnic minorities and those for whites. These differences were not statistically significant for promotions from Class 4 to Class 3, from Class 2 to Class 1, or from Class 1 to the executive rank. However, the differences between promotion rates for racial or ethnic minorities and whites were statistically significant for promotions from Class 3 to Class 2. As table 5 shows, our descriptive analysis of the data for USAID’s Foreign Service found that for Class 4 and higher ranks, a lower average percentage of racial or ethnic minorities than of whites was promoted from each rank except Class 1. For example, our descriptive analysis found that in fiscal years 2002 through 2017, an average of 31.5 percent of racial or ethnic minorities were promoted from Class 4 to Class 3, compared with an average of 33.7 percent of whites. This difference of 2.2 percentage points indicates that the average rate of promotion from Class 4 to Class 3 was 6.4 percent lower for racial or ethnic minorities than for whites. However, our descriptive analysis does not account for the variety of factors besides racial or ethnic minority status, such as occupation, that may affect promotion rates. Our adjusted analysis of the data for USAID’s Foreign Service, controlling for certain factors other than racial or ethnic minority status that could influence promotion, found that racial or ethnic minorities had lower adjusted rates and odds of promotion than their white counterparts but that these differences were generally not statistically significant. Specifically, our adjusted analysis of USAID data on promotions in fiscal years 2002 through 2017 found the following: On average, the adjusted rate of promotion from Class 3 to Class 2 for racial or ethnic minorities was 11.0 percent, compared with 13.1 percent for whites. This statistically significant difference indicates that the odds of promotion from Class 3 to Class 2 in the Foreign Service were 21.5 percent lower for racial or ethnic minorities than for whites. The adjusted rates and odds of promotion for racial or ethnic minorities relative to whites were also lower for promotion from Class 4 to Class 3 and from Class 2 to Class 1 and were higher for promotion from Class 1 to the executive rank, but these differences were not statistically significant at the 95 percent confidence level. That is, we could not conclude that there was a statistical relationship between racial or ethnic minority status and promotion from these ranks. Compared with our descriptive analysis, our adjusted analysis found a larger percentage difference in promotion outcomes at all levels from Class 4 to the executive rank for racial or ethnic minorities relative to whites. Figure 8 shows key results of our descriptive and adjusted analyses of USAID data for racial or ethnic minorities and whites in the Foreign Service. Differences in Promotion Outcomes for Women and Men Were Generally Not Statistically Significant Our analyses of USAID data on promotions in fiscal years 2002 through 2017 found differences between promotion outcomes for women relative to men, but these differences were generally not statistically significant. We found these differences when conducting descriptive analyses, which calculated simple average promotion rates, as well as adjusted analyses, which controlled for certain individual and occupational factors other than gender that could influence promotion. In particular, we found that average promotion rates for women in the Civil Service varied relative to men, but the differences were not statistically significant. In the Foreign Service, average promotion rates varied for women relative to men, but these differences were statistically significant only for promotion from Class 4 to Class 3. Our analyses do not completely explain the reasons for differences in promotion outcomes, which may result from various unobservable factors. Thus, our analyses do not establish a causal relationship between demographic characteristics and promotion outcomes. Civil Service Average Promotion Rates Varied for Women Relative to Men, but Differences in Outcomes Were Not Statistically Significant When We Controlled for Various Factors As table 6 shows, our descriptive analysis of USAID data on promotions in fiscal years 2002 through 2017 found that the rate of promotion in USAID’s Civil Service was generally lower for women than for men at GS- 13 and lower ranks. However, our adjusted analysis did not find any statistically significant differences in the rates or odds of promotion for women relative to men in the Civil Service. Our descriptive analysis of the data for USAID’s Civil Service found that the average percentage of women promoted from GS-11 through GS-13 was lower than the average percentage of men. For example, our descriptive analysis found that in fiscal years 2002 through 2017, an average of 47.4 percent of women were promoted from GS-11 to GS-12, compared with an average of 58.7 percent of men. This difference of 11.3 percentage points indicates that the average rate of promotion from GS- 11 to GS-12 was 19.3 percent lower for women than for men. However, our descriptive analysis does not account for the variety of factors besides gender (e.g., occupation) that may affect promotion rates. Our adjusted analysis of the USAID data, controlling for certain factors other than gender that could influence promotion, found no statistically significant differences in the rates or odds of promotion for women compared with men in the Civil Service. Specifically, the adjusted analysis for promotions in fiscal years 2002 through 2017 found the following: The adjusted rates and odds of promotion from GS-12 to GS-13, from GS-13 to GS-14, and from GS-14 to GS-15 were lower for women than for men. Our estimates of the odds of promotion from GS-11 to GS-12 and from GS-15 to the executive rank were higher for women than for men. In all cases, we found no statistically significant differences at the 95 percent confidence level in the odds of promotion from any rank for women relative to men in the Civil Service. That is, we could not conclude that there was a statistical relationship between gender and promotion from these ranks. Figure 9 shows key results of our descriptive and adjusted analyses of USAID data for men and women in USAID’s Civil Service. Foreign Service Average Promotion Rates Were Generally Higher for Women Than Men, but Differences in Outcomes Were Generally Not Statistically Significant When We Controlled for Various Factors Our descriptive and adjusted analyses of data on promotions in fiscal years 2002 through 2017 for USAID’s Foreign Service both found that the rate and odds of promotion were generally higher for women than for men, as table 7 shows. Our descriptive analysis of the data for USAID’s Foreign Service found that higher average percentages of women, relative to men, were promoted from Class 4 to Class 3, from Class 2 to Class 1, and from Class 1 to the executive rank. For example, our descriptive analysis found that in fiscal years 2002 through 2017, an average of 33.9 percent of women were promoted from Class 4 to Class 3, compared with an average of 32.2 percent of men. This 1.7 percentage point difference indicates that the average rate of promotion from Class 4 to Class 3 was 5.2 percent higher for women than for men. However, our descriptive analysis does not account for the variety of factors besides gender (e.g., occupation) that may affect promotion rates. Our adjusted analysis of the data for USAID’s Foreign Service, controlling for certain factors other than gender that could influence promotion, found that the adjusted rates and odds of promotion varied for women relative to men in the Foreign Service. Specifically, our adjusted analysis of data on promotions in fiscal years 2002 through 2017 found the following: On average, the adjusted rate of promotion from Class 4 to Class 3 for women in the Foreign Service was 34.7 percent, compared with 31.5 percent for men. This statistically significant difference indicates that the odds of promotion from Class 4 to Class 3 were 20.2 percent higher for women than for men. While the adjusted rates of promotion from Class 3 to Class 2 and from Class 1 to the executive rank were lower for women than for men, there were no statistically significant differences in the odds of promotion from these ranks for women relative to men in the Foreign Service. Thus, we could not conclude that there was a statistical relationship between gender and promotion from these ranks. Compared with the descriptive analysis, our adjusted analysis found a smaller percentage difference in promotion outcomes from Class 3 to Class 2 and from Class 2 to Class 1 for women relative to men. Our adjusted analysis also found positive, rather than negative, percentage differences in promotion outcomes from Class 4 to Class 3 and from Class 2 to Class 1 for women relative to men. Figure 10 displays key results of our descriptive and adjusted analyses of USAID data for men and women in USAID’s Foreign Service. USAID Has Identified Underrepresentation of Specific Groups in Its Workforce but Has Not Carried Out Required EEO Activities USAID has determined that specific groups, such as Hispanics and African Americans, are underrepresented in its workforce, and the agency has a strategic plan that identifies goals, activities, and measures to support diversity and inclusion. However, staffing gaps stemming in part from a lack of leadership attention have prevented OCRD from conducting required equal employment opportunity functions. Specifically, staffing gaps have prevented OCRD from responding to EEO complaints within mandated timeframes, analyzing USAID’s workforce for trends and potential barriers to equal employment, and completing the annual MD- 715 reports on the agency’s diversity efforts. USAID Has Identified Underrepresentation of Specific Groups and Developed a Diversity and Inclusion Strategic Plan USAID Has Identified Underrepresentation of Specific Groups in Its Workforce USAID has identified specific groups that are underrepresented in its workforce relative to the national civilian labor force. In each of its MD- 715 reports to EEOC for fiscal years 2013 through 2017, USAID identified the following groups as being underrepresented in its workforce: (1) Hispanic males and females in both the Civil Service and the Foreign Service; (2) individuals with a targeted disability; and (3) Hispanic, African American, and Asian American males and females in certain major occupations in areas such as health, contracting, program or project development, auditing, and management and program analysis. According to USAID officials, these groups remain underrepresented in USAID’s workforce. In fiscal years 2010 through 2016, USAID completed analyses intended to identify barriers that could contribute to underrepresentation of specific groups and other diversity issues and described such barriers in its MD- 715 reports. For example, in its report for fiscal year 2010, USAID stated that its recruitment and outreach efforts had failed to attract a representative pool of qualified applicants. In its report for fiscal year 2011, USAID stated that it had no executive development program to prepare employees to enter the senior executive service. In its report for fiscal year 2016, USAID reported on three barrier analyses examining the underrepresentation of, respectively, Hispanics; people with targeted disabilities; and African Americans, Asian Americans, and Hispanics in major occupations. Additional diversity issues may exist at USAID. For example, in 2014, EEOC found that black and Asian females may encounter barriers to equal employment when attempting to enter USAID’s Senior Foreign Service. Further, representatives from 10 of 11 employee resource groups told us that they believed members of their communities have fewer career prospects at USAID than members of other USAID communities. USAID Developed a Diversity and Inclusion Strategic Plan USAID outlined planned efforts to support diversity and inclusion in its June 2016 Human Resource Transformation Strategy and Action Plan, 2016-2021 (HR Transformation Strategy) as well as its 2017 Diversity and Inclusion Strategic Plan. According to the HR Transformation Strategy, USAID envisioned an environment in which diversity recruiting is targeted and strategic, selection bias does not prevent diverse candidates from being hired, all staff and supervisors are trained regularly in diversity and inclusion topics, and agency leaders incorporate diversity into staffing decisions. The HR Transformation Strategy included an objective focused on diversity and inclusion, with planned activities to work toward this goal. The 2017 Diversity and Inclusion Strategic Plan was developed concurrently with, and folded into, the HR Transformation Strategy’s diversity and inclusion objective. Shortly into the first year of the HR Transformation Strategy implementation, USAID narrowed its scope and suspended the diversity and inclusion objective. USAID’s 2017 Diversity and Inclusion Strategic Plan identifies three goals: (1) diversify the federal workforce though active engagement of leadership, (2) include and engage everyone in the workplace, and (3) optimize inclusive diversity efforts using a data-driven approach. The plan also identifies priorities, activities, and measures intended to meet USAID’s diversity goals, several of which cite, and overlap with, the original diversity and inclusion–related elements of the HR Transformation Strategy. HCTM and OCRD officials indicated that that the Diversity and Inclusion Strategic Plan includes some of the areas that would no longer be addressed through the HR Transformation Strategy. In addition, the officials noted that USAID has implemented some aspects of the plan. For example, according to the officials, its employee resource groups have participated in various outreach and recruitment events, as called for by the plan. HCTM and OCRD officials told us that USAID was drafting an update to the Diversity and Inclusion Strategic Plan, which it aimed to finish in June 2020. The officials stated that, although OCRD and HCTM will remain the plan’s primary implementers, the new plan will give USAID bureaus and offices more responsibility for diversity and inclusion activities. Additionally, the officials stated that working groups from USAID’s employee resource groups had begun reviewing the draft. The officials stated that OCRD expected to submit the draft to the Executive Diversity Council for comment after these reviews. Staffing Gaps Have Prevented USAID from Responding to EEO Complaints in a Timely Manner, Analyzing Its Workforce, and Reporting on Diversity Efforts OCRD has faced persistent staffing gaps stemming in part from a lack of management attention to the agency’s EEO programs. Moreover, the office has experienced turnover among its directors. OCRD officials stated that the staffing gaps and turnover challenges have prevented the office from completing required EEO functions. As figure 11 shows, the number of OCRD’s filled positions has consistently been less than its allocation. According to OCRD and EEOC officials, the office needs to fill its allocated positions to effectively perform its duties and responsibilities. These staffing gaps generally correspond to times when USAID reported that OCRD could not perform EEO investigations within mandated timeframes, conduct barrier analyses of the agency’s workforce, or complete an MD-715 report. OCRD Faces Staffing Gaps OCRD cannot effectively perform its duties and responsibilities without sufficient staff, according to OCRD officials. Federal equal employment regulations require federal agencies to provide sufficient resources to their EEO programs to ensure efficient and successful operation. However, as table 8 shows, OCRD has faced staffing gaps since fiscal year 2010. According to USAID officials, vacancies have a greater effect on smaller offices such as OCRD, where fewer staff are available to take on the resulting extra work. The officials said that this can in turn affect morale, which can increase staff turnover. Such turnover is observable in USAID’s employee data showing the number of employees and new hires in OCRD. Specifically, while OCRD added new hires to the office each fiscal year, the number of filled positions generally stayed the same or decreased. For example, the number of filled positions in OCRD decreased from 10 to nine in fiscal year 2016, despite the addition of a new hire. Similarly, in fiscal years 2017 and 2018, OCRD’s filled positions remained constant at 10 despite four new hires during that period. As a result, OCRD’s vacancy rate remained near or above 30 percent from October 2015 through April 2020. EEOC similarly noted OCRD’s insufficient staffing in compliance letters to USAID in 2017 and 2019. In both letters, EEOC outlined its expectation that USAID establish a plan to allocate sufficient resources to its EEO program and demonstrate meaningful progress toward correcting this deficiency. USAID officials stated that these staffing gaps have limited OCRD’s capacity to carry out required EEO functions. For example, in November 2019, most of OCRD’s divisions had vacancy rates of 50 percent or more. At that time, all three allocated positions in the Reasonable Accommodation Division and five of six positions in the Diversity and Inclusion Division were vacant. In February 2020, OCRD officials reported that the division’s Affirmative Employment Program had no staff to implement the MD-715 report for fiscal year 2019. Additionally, OCRD reported that the Complaints and Resolution Division’s Anti-Harassment Program continued to receive cases while working through backlogs. Without sufficient staff, OCRD is unable to effectively perform its duties and responsibilities, according to OCRD officials. As part of its response to EEOC’s October 2019 compliance letter, USAID increased the number of positions approved for OCRD to 24. However, the office has struggled to fill those positions. HCTM and OCRD officials stated that, although they are working to resolve the staffing gaps in OCRD, high demand for staff with the specialized skills OCRD requires, as well as unexpected recent turnover in OCRD due to illness and retirement, have hindered this effort. According to USAID officials, long security clearance processes also caused several candidates to withdraw from the hiring process when they found other employment. As table 9 shows, OCRD continued to have staffing gaps of 30 to 50 percent in April 2020. Representatives from nine of the 13 USAID employee groups we spoke with echoed the concern that OCRD lacked sufficient staffing resources to do its job effectively. For example, one group attributed OCRD’s lack of responsiveness to information requests to a lack of sufficient staffing resources. Another group said that there was an implicit understanding in USAID that OCRD had to prioritize reacting to negative events rather than undertaking proactive efforts to increase diversity. Without sufficient staffing resources, USAID will lack the capacity to perform required functions such as responding to EEO complaints, analyzing demographic data, or completing annual MD-715 reports. USAID Has Not Responded to EEO Complaints in a Timely Manner According to EEOC MD-715 instructions to federal agencies, model EEO programs must have sufficient budget and staffing to support the success of the EEO program, including sufficient staffing to ensure thorough and fair processing of EEO complaints in a timely manner. According to USAID, a lack of staffing resources has prevented the agency from meeting required time frames for EEO investigations. In four of its six MD- 715 submissions for fiscal years 2010 through 2018, USAID reported that it did not have sufficient staffing to implement a successful complaint process. In recent years, USAID has consistently reported being unable to complete EEO counseling, EEO investigations, or final agency decisions on EEO complaints in a timely manner, as required by federal equal employment regulations. For example, in fiscal year 2013 and fiscal years 2015 through 2019, USAID reported being unable to complete EEO investigations within prescribed time frames. Further, in an October 2019 compliance letter, EEOC stated that in fiscal year 2018, USAID completed 67 percent of EEO counseling, 14 percent of EEO investigations, and none of the final agency decisions in a timely manner. As table 10 shows, USAID reported that it did not complete any stages of the EEO complaints response process in a timely manner for fiscal years 2016 through 2019, with the exception of EEO counseling in fiscal year 2016. In fiscal year 2019, the agency continued to lack sufficient funding and qualified staffing to process EEO complaints in a timely, thorough, and fair manner, according to USAID documentation. Representatives of three USAID employee groups also stated that OCRD lacked the capacity to address EEO issues in a timely manner and attributed this to understaffing. Representatives of the first group said that, at a certain point, USAID had a single EEO investigator for the entire agency and that investigations took more than a year. Representatives of the second group stated that because OCRD was short-staffed, it had a backlog of complaints of harassment and bullying. Representatives of the third group said that they had observed the reasonable-accommodation process taking longer than a year. They speculated that this had resulted from USAID’s assigning the handling of reasonable-accommodation requests across the worldwide portfolio to a single person. According to USAID, OCRD has made progress in reducing complaint backlogs. In February 2020, OCRD officials said that the timeliness requirement had been met for the EEO complaint process and that the office no longer had a backlog of complaints. However, OCRD officials said that backlogs remained in processing anti-harassment cases. Further, the officials said that the Reasonable Accommodation Program continued to be affected by a lack of staff. In an April 2020 compliance letter to EEOC, USAID reported that OCRD had developed metrics and new internal procedures for complaint processing. The letter further stated that thus far in fiscal year 2020, OCRD had been 100 percent timely with EEO counseling, EEO investigations, and final agency decisions. While USAID has noted recent improvement in its ability to conduct timely EEO counseling and investigations, without the capacity to consistently perform these functions, USAID cannot meet mandated timeframes for responding to EEO complaints and risks being unable to achieve its goal of a diverse and inclusive workforce environment. USAID Is Unable to Perform Analyses of Its Demographic Data According to EEOC MD-715 instructions to federal agencies, model EEO programs must have sufficient budget and staffing to, among other things, conduct self-assessments of possible program deficiencies and conduct thorough barrier analyses of their agency’s workforce. Although USAID has previously completed barrier analyses of its workforce, the agency reported insufficient personnel resources to conduct annual agency self- assessments and self-analyses for its MD-715 submissions for fiscal years 2010, 2013, 2016, and 2017. For example, the fiscal year 2017 MD-715 report stated that USAID did not conduct trend analyses of the effects of management or personnel policies, procedures, and practices and that the agency lacked sufficient resources to enable it to conduct a thorough barrier analysis of its workforce. According to USAID officials, OCRD lost its staff member assigned to manage barrier analyses and was unable to fill that position during the hiring freeze. Further, OCRD continues to lack sufficient personnel to conduct barrier analyses. In November 2019, OCRD’s Diversity and Inclusion Division consisted of one supervisor and five vacant positions. Despite subsequent efforts to hire more staff, OCRD reported in February 2020 that it still lacked staff to perform its data analysis responsibilities. EEOC officials expressed concern regarding OCRD’s lack of capacity to analyze and address diversity issues. For example, EEOC officials said that USAID had not adequately used applicant flow data to identify potential barriers in fiscal year 2017. Despite having collected applicant data, USAID did not submit applicant flow data as part of its MD-715 submission for fiscal year 2017, the most recent year for which it submitted this report. According to the EEOC officials, OCRD told them that it lacked staff with sufficient technical expertise to conduct a barrier analysis of these data. Without the capacity to perform self-analysis, USAID is unable to proactively identify and address barriers to diversity in its workforce. USAID Is Unable to Consistently Submit the Annual MD-715 Report EEOC MD-715 requires federal agencies to submit their MD-715 reports to the EEOC annually. The report is due by February 28 following the end of the fiscal year that is being reported, although EEOC has the discretion to grant extensions. However, OCRD did not complete the MD-715 report in fiscal years 2011 or 2012 and has not submitted an MD-715 report for fiscal year 2018. Despite being granted submission extensions, USAID had not submitted its MD-715 report for fiscal year 2018 by the certification deadline of September 30, 2019, according to EEOC’s October 2019 compliance letter. The letter stated that EEOC expected USAID to submit the MD-715 report for fiscal year 2018 and to ensure that the MD-715 report for fiscal year 2019 would be submitted by the deadline of February 28, 2020. In November 2019, USAID officials told us that OCRD lacked the staff needed to complete the fiscal year 2018 MD- 715 report by this deadline and therefore intended to concentrate on submitting a report for fiscal year 2019. However, in February 2020, USAID officials told us that OCRD’s Affirmative Employment Program continued to lack any staff to monitor and implement the MD-715 effort. In April 2020, USAID officials reported that they were using a contractor to complete the fiscal year 2019 MD-715 report. Without OCRD capacity to submit required reports on the agency’s diversity and inclusion efforts, USAID leadership will lack sufficient insight into the EEO program to ensure that its activities meet agency goals. Furthermore, inconsistent reporting could hamper EEOC’s oversight of USAID’s EEO programs. Lack of USAID Leadership Attention Has Contributed to OCRD’s Staffing Gaps OCRD’s staffing gaps stem in part from a lack of leadership attention to USAID’s equal employment opportunity programs at both the office and agency levels. We have previously identified top leadership commitment as a leading practice for diversity management. Leaders and managers within organizations are primarily responsible for the success of diversity management, because they must provide the visibility and commit the time and necessary resources. Both USAID and EEOC officials attributed OCRD’s staffing problems to frequent management turnover within OCRD. According to information provided by USAID officials, OCRD has had five directors (permanent and acting) since 2013. USAID officials stated that this turnover made it difficult for any director to provide sufficient office-level leadership attention to sustain efforts to improve OCRD’s capacity. EEOC officials also expressed concern regarding this level of director turnover and asserted that without consistent office leadership that could effectively advocate for scarce personnel resources within USAID, OCRD would continue to face staffing shortages. EEOC officials said that OCRD could not draw sufficient attention from senior USAID leadership without a permanent director. According to EEOC MD-715 instructions to federal agencies, model EEO programs have a reporting structure for the EEO program that provides the principal EEO official with appropriate authority and resources to effectively carry out a successful EEO program. This includes, but is not limited to, an annual State of the Agency briefing given by the EEO Director (in USAID’s case, the Director of OCRD) to the agency head and other senior management officials after the submission of a MD-715 report. According to MD-715 instructions to federal agencies, the briefing must thoroughly cover all components of the agency’s MD-715 report, including an assessment of the agency’s performance in each of the six elements of a model EEO program, as well as a report on the agency’s progress in completing its barrier analysis. However, OCRD has not presented a State of the Agency briefing to the head of USAID and other senior leadership for 3 consecutive fiscal years. In April 2020, OCRD officials told us that the office planned to provide the briefing to USAID’s Executive Diversity Council once the MD-715 for fiscal year 2019 was completed, which they anticipated would occur in May 2020. HCTM and OCRD officials also told us that since receiving the EEOC’s October 2019 compliance letter, senior USAID leadership had been more engaged than previously. Without senior USAID leadership attention to diversity, OCRD will continue to lack the staffing resources necessary to build its capacity to support USAID’s diversity and inclusion efforts as well as operate an effective and efficient EEO program. Conclusions Although USAID has made some progress in increasing representation of diverse groups in its Civil and Foreign Service workforces, continued underrepresentation and generally lower promotion outcomes for racial or ethnic minorities suggest that additional efforts are needed. Addressing these issues requires an effective and efficient EEO program. However, OCRD, which operates the agency’s EEO program, is currently unable to perform its key functions because of significant staffing gaps and turnover. USAID’s recent efforts to fill staff vacancies within various OCRD divisions could help increase OCRD’s capacity to perform its required EEO functions. However, such capacity will not be fully demonstrated until OCRD can consistently ensure timely processing of EEO complaints and investigations, regular analysis of workforce demographics for trends, and regular submission of required MD-715 reports. Further, sustained attention to diversity efforts from USAID’s senior leadership would help ensure that OCRD has the capacity to perform its required EEO functions. Without capacity to perform these functions, USAID cannot consistently respond to allegations of discrimination in a timely manner, identify potential barriers to equal employment opportunity, or maintain accountability for the progress of its diversity and inclusion efforts. Recommendations for Executive Action We are making the following four recommendations to USAID: 1. The USAID Administrator should ensure that OCRD consistently responds to EEO complaints in a timely manner. (Recommendation 1) 2. The USAID Administrator should ensure that OCRD consistently analyzes USAID workforce demographic data for trends and potential barriers to equal employment opportunity. (Recommendation 2) 3. The USAID Administrator should ensure that OCRD submits required MD-715 reports to EEOC in a timely manner. (Recommendation 3) 4. The USAID Administrator should demonstrate senior leadership attention to diversity by ensuring that OCRD has the capacity to perform required EEO functions. (Recommendation 4) Agency Comments We provided a draft of this report to USAID, EEOC, and OPM for comment. USAID provided comments, which we have reproduced in appendix XV. EEOC and OPM stated they did not have comments. In its comments, USAID concurred with our four recommendations and described actions planned or underway to address them. For example, in response to recommendations 2 and 3, USAID stated that it is in the process of establishing an Affirmative Employment Program in OCRD to, among other things, analyze and report on workforce data and prepare and submit the agency’s annual MD-715 Report. USAID indicated that it expects to finish implementing actions addressing our EEO-related recommendations in 2020. We believe that, to demonstrate consistent capacity to perform its EEO functions, USAID will need to successfully complete these functions for at least two consecutive cycles. We are sending copies of this report to the appropriate congressional committees, the Administrator of USAID, the Chair of EEOC, and the Director of OPM. In addition, the report will be available at no charge on the GAO website at http://www.gao.gov. If you or your staff have any questions about this report, please contact me at (202) 512-6881 or at bairj@gao.gov. Contact points for our Office of Congressional Relations and Office of Public Affairs can be found on the last page of this report. GAO staff who made key contributions to this report are listed in appendix XVI. Appendix I: Objectives, Scope, and Methodology This report examines (1) the demographic composition of USAID’s workforce in fiscal years 2002 through 2018, (2) differences in promotion outcomes for racial or ethnic groups in USAID’s workforce, (3) differences in promotion outcomes for men and women in USAID’s workforce, and (4) the extent to which USAID has identified workforce diversity issues and worked to address them. For this report, we analyzed National Finance Center data on USAID’s full-time, permanent, career workforce (direct-hire U.S. citizen Civil and Foreign Service employees) for fiscal years 2002 through 2018. For each fiscal year, we analyzed record-level status data for USAID’s employees as of September 30 (the end of the fiscal year). This included demographic and administrative data for each employee, such as race, ethnicity, gender, grade or class, age, date of entry to USAID, years of service, veteran’s status, occupation, location or duty station, and the employee’s unique identifier. We also analyzed record-level dynamic data that included personnel actions, such as promotions or separations. In addition, we obtained “Post (Hardship) Differential Percentage of Basic Compensation” data from the Department of State’s website for fiscal years 2002 through 2018. Following guidance from the U.S. Equal Employment Opportunity Commission, we used data for nine federal job categories and their correspondence to specific occupation codes to match federal job categories to the occupations of USAID’s employees. We assessed the reliability of these data sets and of other data critical to our analyses through documentation review, electronic testing, and interviews with knowledgeable agency officials. We determined that these data were sufficiently reliable for our purposes. To examine the demographic composition of USAID’s workforce over time, we analyzed National Finance Center data for USAID’s full-time, permanent, career workforce for fiscal years 2002 through 2018. For each year, we calculated the demographic composition of the workforce by racial or ethnic group and by gender for USAID overall and for USAID’s Civil and Foreign Services. We also analyzed these numbers and percentages by occupation and rank, including General Service (GS) grade for the Civil Service, salary class for the Foreign Service, and executive rank (i.e., Senior Executive Service or Senior Foreign Service). We excluded political appointees and Office of Inspector General employees from our overall analysis because, according to agency officials, USAID’s Office of Human Capital and Talent Management does not have authority over these hires. We also compared the demographics of USAID’s workforce in fiscal year 2018 with the most recent available data on demographics of (1) the federal workforce, as reported by the Office of Personnel Management (OPM), and (2) the relevant civilian labor force, from the Census Bureau’s equal employment opportunity (EEO) tabulation. Because of USAID’s involvement in disability-related litigation during the course of this engagement, we did not analyze the numbers and percentages of employees with disabilities. Additionally, because the National Finance Center data we used did not include information about employees’ sexual orientation, we were unable to analyze the data on that basis. For the purposes of our report, racial or ethnic minorities exclude non- Hispanic whites; Hispanics include Hispanics of all races; and the remaining non-Hispanic racial or ethnic groups include white, African American, Asian, and other. Our analysis for the category we report as “other” includes non-Hispanics identified as American Indian or Alaskan Native, Native Hawaiian or other Pacific Islander, and individuals identifying as two or more races. For instances where an employee’s reported racial, ethnic, or gender category changed, we assigned the most recently recorded category to all available years. To examine promotion outcomes for racial or ethnic minorities and women in USAID’s workforce, we conducted two types of analyses— descriptive and adjusted—using USAID’s National Finance Center data for its full-time, permanent, career workforce in fiscal years 2002 through 2018. For both analyses, we considered promotion to be an increase in rank between 2 consecutive fiscal years. We included in these analyses all individuals in the original rank and did not distinguish between individuals who did or did not apply for promotion or who were eligible or ineligible. We conducted a descriptive analysis of USAID data, comparing annual promotion rates for racial or ethnic minorities and whites and for women and men. For each rank and fiscal year, we calculated these rates as the number of newly elevated employees in the next-higher rank in the following fiscal year divided by the number of employees in the given rank in the current year. We conducted adjusted analysis using a multivariate statistical method (i.e., duration analysis), which accounted for certain individual and occupational factors other than racial or ethnic minority status and gender that could influence promotion. Specifically, we used a discrete-time multivariate statistical logit model to analyze the number of yearly cycles it took to be promoted up to the executive level from GS-11 in the Civil Service and from Class 4 in the Foreign Service. We examined the statistical relationship between promotion and racial or ethnic minority status and gender, including adjusted promotion rates, odds ratios, and percentage differences in relative odds of promotion. Because a variety of factors besides racial or ethnic minority status and gender may influence promotion outcomes, we incorporated various individual and position-specific characteristics in our regression models to control for other potential factors. These included an employee’s (1) time in each rank before promotion; (2) years of prior federal government experience; (3) age when entering USAID; (4) receipt of veterans’ preference points; (5) having transferred between the Civil and Foreign Services; (6) having worked overseas in the previous year (for the Foreign Service); (7) having worked in at a location where the hardship differential was 20 percent or more in the previous year (Foreign Service only); (8) proficiency in two or more languages other than English (Foreign Service only); and (9) occupation as well as (10) fiscal years. We identified these attributes as being relevant to promotion by reviewing relevant literature and interviewing agency officials. Our primary model was a pooled model that included all employees whose records we used to determine summary statistics for USAID’s full-time, permanent, career workforce in fiscal years 2002 through 2018. Additionally, we conducted a number of sensitivity analyses, such as examining the robustness of our models to the inclusion of various sets of control variables (see app. XIII) and applying the multivariate statistical method for various permutations of racial or ethnic minority status (see app. XIV). USAID’s Identification of Diversity Issues To examine the extent to which USAID has identified workforce diversity issues and worked to address them, we reviewed all annual Management Directive 715 reports that it submitted to EEOC from fiscal year 2011 through fiscal year 2019. We also reviewed policies, guidance, and other USAID documentation related to diversity. Additionally, we met with relevant USAID officials from the Office of Civil Rights and Diversity and the Office of Human Capital and Talent Management as well as officials from EEOC. We also conducted interviews with representatives of 13 employee groups representing current employees in USAID’s Civil and Foreign Services to obtain their perspectives on diversity efforts at USAID. These groups included two unions: the Association of Federal Government Employees and the American Foreign Service Association. The 13 groups also included 11 employee resource groups: Arab- Americans in Foreign Affairs Agencies, the Asian Pacific American Employees Committee, Blacks in Government, Employees with Disabilities, Gender and Sexual Minorities, the Hispanic Employees Council of Foreign Affairs Agencies, the Jewish Affinity Group, the Native Americans in Foreign Affairs Council, the Personal Services Contractor Association, the USAID Muslims Employee Resource Group, and Women@AID. We conducted this performance audit from October 2018 to June 2020 in accordance with generally accepted government auditing standards. Those standards require that we plan and perform the audit to obtain sufficient, appropriate evidence to provide a reasonable basis for our findings and conclusions based on our audit objectives. We believe that the evidence obtained provides a reasonable basis for our findings and conclusions based on our audit objectives. Appendix II: USAID Workforce Data, Fiscal Years 2002-2018 The following figures and tables present numbers and proportions of employees in racial, ethnic, and gender groups in the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) overall and in USAID’s Civil and Foreign Services in fiscal years 2002 through 2018. Appendix III: Comparison of USAID Workforce with Federal Government and Relevant Civilian Labor Force We compared summary statistics for the U.S. Agency for International Development’s (USAID) workforce overall with summary statistics for the federal government and relevant civilian labor force. Comparison of USAID and Federal Workforce We compared summary statistics calculated from USAID personnel data for fiscal year 2018 with summary statistics for the federal government for fiscal year 2017, published in the Federal Equal Opportunity Recruitment Program (FEORP) report. Our comparison of USAID personnel data with data from the Office of Personnel Management’s FEORP report for the federal government found differences between the proportions of racial or ethnic minorities at USAID and those in the federal workforce. In particular, the proportions of African Americans and Asians were higher at USAID in fiscal year 2018 than in the federal workforce in fiscal year 2017, but the proportion of Hispanics was lower at USAID than in the federal workforce for those years. The proportion of women at USAID was higher than in the federal workforce (see table 17). Comparison of USAID’s Workforce with Relevant Civilian Labor Force across Equal Employment Opportunity Commission Groupings We compared summary statistics for USAID’s workforce with summary statistics for the relevant civilian labor force from the Census Bureau’s equal employment opportunity tabulation for three of the Equal Employment Opportunity Commission (EEOC) occupational classification system’s nine categories. Using an EEOC table that cross-classifies Office of Personnel Management occupation codes and federal sector occupational categories, we classified each USAID employee into one of the nine categories. We compared USAID and relevant civilian labor force statistics for the following three categories, corresponding to 99 percent of USAID’s full-time, permanent employees in fiscal year 2018: officials and managers, professional workers, and technical workers and technologists. Our comparison of USAID workforce data with relevant civilian labor force data found generally larger proportions of racial or ethnic minorities at USAID than in the relevant civilian labor force for officials and managers, professional workers, and technical workers and technologists (see tables 18 through 20). The proportions of women were lower at USAID than in the relevant civilian labor force for professional workers but were higher for officials and managers and for technical workers and technologists. Appendix IV: Demographic Data on Executives at USAID, Fiscal Years 2002- 2018 To compare U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) and federal government workforce data, we contrasted summary statistics on executive employees calculated from USAID personnel data for fiscal year 2018 with summary statistics on executives from federal government workforce data for fiscal year 2017 that were published in the Federal Equal Opportunity Recruitment Program (FEORP) report. As table 21 shows, our comparison of USAID workforce data with the FEORP data found a slightly higher proportion of white executives and a slightly lower proportion of racial or ethnic minority executives at USAID than in the federal workforce overall. Appendix V: Workforce Data on Veterans at USAID We analyzed U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) data on employees hired with veterans’ preference in fiscal years 2002 through 2018. The following tables present the numbers and percentages of employees hired with or without veterans’ preference in USAID’s workforce overall and in USAID’s Civil and Foreign Services during that period. Appendix VI: Workforce Data on Individuals with Disabilities at USAID Table 25 shows the proportions of permanent employees with a disability in the U.S. Agency for International Development’s (USAID) Civil and Foreign Services in fiscal years 2009 through 2017. The data shown are summary statistics from USAID’s Management Directive 715 (MD-715) reports to the Equal Employment Opportunity Commission. As the table shows, the proportion of permanent employees with disabilities increased in the Civil Service and remained constant in the Foreign Service in the years for which USAID reported these data. Appendix VII: USAID Data on Political Appointees and Office of Inspector General Employees, Fiscal Years 2002-2018 In addition to analyzing the demographic composition of the U.S. Agency for International Development’s (USAID) workforce, we analyzed USAID personnel data to determine summary statistics on political appointees in fiscal years 2002 through 2018. We considered employees to be political appointees if they were on the executive pay plan or the administratively determined pay plan. This includes Senate-confirmed political appointees as well as political appointees that did not require Senate confirmation. The following figures and tables present the numbers and proportions of political appointees in racial or ethnic and gender groups in USAID overall and USAID’s Civil Service and Foreign Service in fiscal years 2002 through 2018. We also analyzed USAID personnel data to determine summary statistics on employees of the agency’s Office of Inspector General in fiscal years 2002 through 2018. The following tables present the numbers and percentages of the office’s employees in racial or ethnic and gender groups in fiscal years 2002 through 2018. Appendix VIII: Data on Applicants to USAID, Fiscal Years 2012-2018 We analyzed data for applicants to the U.S. Agency for International Development’s (USAID) Civil Service in fiscal years 2012 and 2018 and applicants to USAID’s Foreign Service in fiscal years 2012 and 2016. According to USAID’s guidance on personnel recruitment, an applicant is considered eligible when USAID’s online application evaluation system, using the applicant’s online responses to standardized questions, determines that the applicant meets eligibility requirements and the minimum qualifications defined in the vacancy announcement. USAID’s Civil Service staffing guidance provides that officials may interview and make selections on the basis of referral lists of eligible applicants. USAID’s personnel recruitment guidance for the Foreign Service also notes that an applicant is considered selected when the applicant’s score is above the cut-off total score and the applicant has passed the onsite assessment to advance to the reference-check stage of the hiring process. We considered an applicant to have been rated eligible if the applicant data showed that the applicant had not been rated ineligible. We considered an applicant to have been selected if the applicant data showed that the applicant was either hired or selected. Tables 30 through 32 show the percentages of eligible applicants and selected eligible applicants to, respectively, USAID overall in fiscal years 2012 and 2018, USAID’s Civil Service in fiscal years 2012 and 2018, and USAID’s Foreign Service in fiscal years 2012 and 2016. Appendix IX: USAID Data on Newly Hired Employees, Fiscal Years 2003-2018 In addition to analyzing the demographic composition of the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) workforce, we analyzed USAID personnel data to determine summary statistics on employees hired in fiscal years 2003 through 2018. We considered an employee to have been hired in a given fiscal year if the employee first appeared in USAID’s personnel data for that year. Because the USAID data we reviewed began in fiscal year 2002, we were unable to identify employees who were hired in that fiscal year; thus, fiscal year 2003 is the first for which we were able to identify newly hired employees. Figure 21 shows the number of newly hired employees at USAID from fiscal year 2003 to fiscal year 2018. The following figures and tables present the numbers and proportions of newly hired employees in racial, ethnic, and gender groups in USAID overall and USAID’s Civil Service and Foreign Service in fiscal years 2003 through 2018. Appendix X: U.S. Agency for International Development Workforce Data on Attrition, Fiscal Years 2003-2018 In addition to analyzing the demographic composition of the U.S. Agency for International Development’s (USAID) workforce, we analyzed USAID personnel data to determine summary statistics for employees who left USAID in fiscal years 2003 through 2018 for reasons other than retirement or death. Figures 24 and 25 show the percentages of such employees in various racial, ethnic, and gender groups at USAID overall and in USAID’s Civil Service and Foreign Service in fiscal years 2003 and 2018. Table 35 presents attrition rates for white and racial or ethnic minority employees who left USAID in fiscal years 2003 through 2018 for reasons other than retirement or death. Table 36 presents attrition rates for men and women who left USAID in fiscal years 2003 through 2018 for reasons other than retirement or death. Appendix XI: USAID Workforce Data on Promotion Rates, Fiscal Years 2013-2017 As table 37 shows, our analysis of yearly promotion rates for fiscal years 2013 through 2017 at the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) found that promotion rates for white employees exceeded those for racial or ethnic minority employees for Civil Service promotions from GS-11 and every higher rank in every year, except from GS-15 to executive in 3 years, and Foreign Service promotions from Class 4 and higher ranks for 11 of the 20 possible year-rank combinations. Table 38 shows the promotion rates for white employees and racial or ethnic minority employees in USAID’s Civil and Foreign Services in fiscal years 2013 through 2017. Class 4 to Class 3 from Class 4 and higher ranks for 12 of the 20 possible year-rank combinations in the Foreign Service. Table 40 shows the promotion rates for men and women in USAID’s Civil and Foreign Services in fiscal years 2013 through 2017. Appendix XII: USAID Workforce Data on Years Employees Spent in Each Rank, Fiscal Years 2002-2018 Our analysis of U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) workforce data found that racial or ethnic minorities generally spent more years in each rank than whites did in USAID’s Civil Service in fiscal years 2002 through 2018. Table 41 shows the average years in rank for whites and racial or ethnic minorities in USAID’s Civil and Foreign Services. Our analysis also found that in the Civil Service, women generally spent more years than men in early- to mid-career ranks (GS-13 and below) before being promoted. However, women spent fewer years than men in later career ranks (GS-14 and above) before being promoted. In the Foreign Service, women generally spent fewer years than men in early- to mid-career ranks (Class 2 and below) before being promoted. Table 42 shows the average years in rank for men and women in USAID’s Civil and Foreign Services in fiscal years 2002 through 2018. Rank Civil Service Executive GS-15 Appendix XIII: Full Promotion Regression Results Tables 43, 44, 50, and 51 provide summaries of the multivariate statistical regression results (specifically, duration regression results) for our estimates of the percentage differences in odds of promotion for racial or ethnic minorities compared with whites and for women compared with men in the U.S. Agency for International Development’s (USAID) Civil and Foreign Services. Our analyses do not completely explain the reasons for differences in promotion outcomes, which may result from various unobservable factors. Thus, our analyses do not establish a causal relationship between demographic characteristics and promotion outcomes. promotion slots (and therefore promotion outcomes) may be affected by budget constraints that vary across fiscal years. Model 6 used data for fiscal years 2011 through 2018 only. In addition to controlling for the same variables as model 5, model 6 controlled for use of long-term leave in the prior year. Tables 43 through 55 provide the regression results of these six models for all promotion stages that we analyzed in the Civil and Foreign Services. Tables 43, 44, 50, and 51 present the consolidated regression results for all six models and all promotion stages, presented as estimates of percentage differences. Tables 45 through 49 and tables 52 through 55 provide the full regression results of the first five models, presented as odds ratios. Odds ratios that are statistically significant and lower than 1.00 indicate that individuals with the given characteristic were less likely to be promoted. Odds ratios that are statistically significant and greater than 1.00 indicate that individuals with the given characteristic were more likely to be promoted. To convert the values in tables 45 through 49 and tables 52 through 55 to the values in tables 43, 44, 50, and 51, we linearly transformed the estimates. That is, the values for the estimates in tables 43, 44, 50, and 51 are equal to the values in tables 45 through 49 and in tables 52 through 55 multiplied by 100, minus 100. The values for the standard errors in tables 43, 44, 50, and 51 are equal to the values in tables 45 through 49 and in tables 52 through 55 multiplied by 100. For example, in table 45, the estimate for model 1a is 0.463; we arrived at the percentage difference of negative 54 percent in table 43 by 0.463*100-100. Additionally, in table 45, the estimate for the standard error for model 1a is (0.0624); we arrived at the converted standard error of (6) in table 45 by (0.0624)*100. Table 43 summarizes the regression results for our estimates of the percentage differences in odds of promotion for racial or ethnic minorities compared with whites in the Civil Service. We observed that racial or ethnic minorities’ lower odds of promotion from GS-11 through GS-14 were consistently statistically significant across all of our models examining combinations of factors that could influence promotion (i.e., models 1a through 5). In addition, our results were generally statistically significant when we examined the more recent time period fiscal years 2011 through 2018 (see model 6). Racial or ethnic minority (0.0624) (0.0629) (0.0950) (0.0850) (0.0972) 0.872 (0.200) 0.962 (0.229) 1.016 (0.255) Age at entry, squared (0.000627) (0.000640) (0.000659) 0.932*** (0.0197) 0.927*** (0.0200) 0.909*** (0.0211) Years of government service, squared (0.317) (0.362) (0.340) (0.393) (0.399) 0.764 (0.174) 0.802 (0.193) (1.043) (2.707) 1.750** (0.393) 1.919*** (0.459) (0.568) (0.559) 1.987** (0.662) 2.096** (0.728) Odds ratio (standard error) (0.718) (0.747) 1.147 (0.228) 1.235 (0.262) (5.832) (5.407) (6.191) (1.395) (1.142) (0.802) Legend: GS = General Schedule, — = not applicable, √ = controls applied, *** = statistically significant at p-value < 0.01, ** = statistically significant at p- value < 0.05, * = statistically significant at p-value < 0.1. Odds ratio (standard error) Model 3 Model 2 0.876 0.825* — (0.103) Model 4 0.833 (0.100) Model 5 0.806* (0.102) (0.150) (0.149) (0.163) 1.020 (0.0400) 1.022 (0.0410) 1.032 (0.0427) Age at entry, squared (0.000528) (0.000540) (0.000554) Control variable Years of government service Odds ratio (standard error) Model 2 Model 3 0.937*** — (0.0170) (0.0174) (0.0184) Years of government service, squared 1.000 (0.000678) 1.000 (0.000687) 1.000 (0.000703) (0.158) (0.150) (0.152) (0.278) (0.316) 2.299 (3.283) (0.321) (0.306) 0.781 (0.261) 0.878 (0.303) (0.141) (0.142) 1.518 (0.482) 1.515 (0.500) 2.194*** (0.579) 2.050*** (0.548) 2.457*** (0.669) 2.315 (1.734) 1.564 (1.199) 0.648 (0.538) Legend: GS = General Schedule, — = not applicable, √ = controls applied, *** = statistically significant at p-value < 0.01, ** = statistically significant at p- value < 0.05, * = statistically significant at p-value < 0.1. Appendix XIII: Full Promotion Regression Results For example, the estimated odds ratio for racial or ethnic minority employees for promotion from GS- 12 to GS-13 is 0.640 (model 5), which means that the odds of promotion for racial or ethnic minority employees are about 64 percent of the odds for white employees. We conducted discrete-time duration analysis using logit models to analyze the time duration (number of years) before promotion from each GS grade shown. In all models, we controlled for the time that employees spent in each grade before promotion. The overall baseline population for the duration analysis represents individuals who possessed none of the characteristics indicated by the list of control variables. These analyses do not completely explain why differences in odds of promotion exist. While various independent variables capture and control for many characteristics across demographic groups, unobservable factors may account for differences in odds of promotion; thus, our regression results do not establish a causal relationship between demographic characteristics and promotion outcomes. Control variable Woman Model 1b 0.912 (0.0897) Model 2 0.988 (0.0986) Model 3 0.855 (0.0906) Model 4 0.832* (0.0900) Model 5 0.838 (0.0926) (0.116) (0.120) (0.139) 1.021 (0.0385) 1.028 (0.0395) 1.034 (0.0405) Age at entry, squared (0.0158) (0.0165) (0.0170) Years of government, service squared 1.000 (0.000575) 1.000 (0.000594) 1.000 (0.000603) (5.518) (4.311) 0.865 (0.235) 1.013 (0.281) (0.159) (0.160) 0.788 (0.242) 0.703 (0.219) Odds ratio (standard error) (0.163) (0.180) 0.580 (0.210) 0.612 (0.223) (0.277) (0.284) 0.844 (0.263) 0.932 (0.295) 0.198*** (0.0621) 0.164*** (0.0520) 0.199*** (0.0636) 0.243* (0.183) 0.221* (0.172) 0.187** (0.154) Legend: GS = General Schedule, — = not applicable, √ = controls applied, *** = statistically significant at p-value < 0.01, ** = statistically significant at p- value < 0.05, * = statistically significant at p-value < 0.1. Racial or ethnic minority (0.0822) (0.0823) (0.0910) (0.0988) (0.111) 0.634* (0.150) 0.633* (0.151) 0.722 (0.175) Age at entry, squared (0.000670) (0.000673) (0.000690) 1.018 (0.0214) 1.024 (0.0221) 0.987 (0.0224) Years of government service, squared (0.327) (0.352) (0.473) (1.609) (1.437) 1.157 (0.497) 1.401 (0.612) (1.302) (1.511) 0.553 (0.229) 0.557 (0.232) (0.172) (0.146) 1.170 (0.451) 1.575 (0.617) Odds ratio (standard error) (0.227) (0.230) 0.856 (0.361) 1.009 (0.433) 0.0232*** (0.0103) 0.0202*** (0.00903) 0.0227*** (0.0102) 0.00362*** (0.00377) 0.00317*** (0.00336) 0.00526*** (0.00584) Legend: GS = General Schedule, — = not applicable, √ = controls applied, *** = statistically significant at p-value < 0.01, ** = statistically significant at p- value < 0.05, * = statistically significant at p-value < 0.1. (0.418) (0.413) (0.332) (0.360) (0.455) 4.827*** (2.417) 5.221*** (2.569) 6.051*** (3.095) (0.147) (0.141) (0.148) Odds ratio (standard error) Control variable Age at entry, squared (0.00180) (0.00173) (0.00174) 1.120* (0.0751) 1.143* (0.0785) 1.054 (0.0768) Years of government service, squared (0.963) (1.082) (1.282) (0.472) (0.514) (0.459) (0.485) (0.274) (0.242) 1.712 (1.907) 2.195 (2.500) — 1.287 (1.431) — 1.708 (1.964) (0.446) (0.414) Odds ratio (standard error 0.00117*** (0.00181) 0.00110*** (0.00171) 0.00109*** (0.00170) 0.000580** (0.00178) 0.000754** (0.00229) 0.00114** (0.00361) Legend: GS = General Schedule, — = not applicable, √ = controls applied, *** = statistically significant at p-value < 0.01, ** = statistically significant at p- value < 0.05, * = statistically significant at p-value < 0.1. Table 50 summarizes the regression results for our estimates of the percentage differences in odds of promotion for racial or ethnic minorities compared with whites in the Foreign Service. We found that racial or ethnic minorities had lower estimated odds of promotion than whites in early to mid career (Class 4 through Class 1), but these differences were generally not statistically significant. However, we observed statistically significantly lower odds of promotion for racial or ethnic minorities from Class 3 through Class 2. These results were consistently statistically significant across all of our models examining combinations of factors that could influence promotion (i.e., models 1a through 5). including in the more recent period fiscal years 2011 through 2018 (see models 5 and 6). Tables 52 through 55 present full regression results for models 1a through 5 for each rank in the Foreign Service. The results are presented as odds ratios. Racial or ethnic minority (0.0732) (0.0725) (0.0746) (0.0733) (0.0831) 0.910 (0.229) 0.819 (0.209) 1.010 (0.278) Age at entry, squared (0.000598) (0.000602) (0.000645) 1.104*** (0.0310) 1.104*** (0.0312) 1.098*** (0.0327) Years of government service, squared (0.126) (0.129) (0.128) 2.035*** (0.182) 2.018*** (0.182) 3.664*** (0.442) (0.217) (0.216) (0.346) (3.089) (3.039) 1.338 (0.266) 1.557** (0.339) (0.151) (0.157) 0.935 (0.151) 1.190 (0.209) Odds ratio (standard error) (0.124) (0.147) 1.592** (0.362) 1.391 (0.334) Duration controls Fiscal year controls (0.169) (0.212) Legend: — = not applicable, √ = controls applied, *** = statistically significant at p-value < 0.01, ** = statistically significant at p-value < 0.05, * = statistically significant at p-value < 0.1. (0.0722) (0.0745) (0.0817) (0.0831) (0.0911) 0.752*** (0.0769) 0.767** (0.0790) 0.767** (0.0803) 0.748*** (0.0801) 0.785** (0.0895) (0.154) (0.147) (0.201) Odds ratio (standard error) Control variable Age at entry Age at entry, squared (0.0679) (0.0688) (0.0650) 0.998** (0.000764) 0.998** (0.000769) 0.999 (0.000799) Years of government service, squared (0.00140) (0.00141) (0.00148) 1.077 (0.109) 1.078 (0.110) 0.855 (0.0970) (0.0868) (0.0868) (0.121) 1.033 (0.168) 1.024 (0.167) 0.929 (0.164) 2.641 (3.278) 2.499 (3.189) (0.185) (0.182) 1.063 (0.177) 1.166 (0.208) (0.126) (0.221) 1.534** (0.295) 1.857*** (0.386) (0.160) (0.215) Odds ratio (standard error) 0.000459*** (0.000257) 0.000467*** (0.000262) 0.000494*** (0.000277) 0.000022*** (0.000028) 0.000017*** (0.000022) 0.000417*** (0.000588) Legend: — = not applicable, √ = controls applied, *** = statistically significant at p-value < 0.01, ** = statistically significant at p-value < 0.05, * = statistically significant at p-value < 0.1. Odds ratio (standard error) Model 2 Model 3 1.122 0.997 (0.0951) (0.0986) (0.0922) (0.0948) (0.0970) 0.837* (0.0890) 0.820* (0.0882) 0.842 (0.0922) 0.830* (0.0922) 0.863 (0.0979) Age at entry, squared (0.0659) (0.0665) (0.0642) 0.998*** (0.000750) 0.998*** (0.000754) 0.998** (0.000772) Years of government service, squared (0.000815) (0.000821) (0.000859) Control variable Two or more languages Odds ratio (standard error) Model 2 Model 3 — 1.417*** (0.135) (0.137) (0.130) 1.480*** (0.165) 1.437*** (0.164) 1.777*** (0.227) (0.141) (0.144) (0.172) (1.409) (3.636) 1.181 (0.241) 1.203 (0.249) (0.200) (0.202) 1.050 (0.197) 1.280 (0.247) (0.274) (0.268) 0.966 (0.229) 1.003 (0.242) (0.130) (0.137) Legend: — = not applicable, √ = controls applied, *** = statistically significant at p-value < 0.01, ** = statistically significant at p-value < 0.05, * = statistically significant at p-value < 0.1. Appendix XIII: Full Promotion Regression Results (0.117) (0.117) (0.124) (0.127) (0.127) 1.028 (0.160) 1.034 (0.162) 1.089 (0.173) 1.220 (0.202) 1.321 (0.226) (0.0613) (0.0577) (0.0612) Age at entry, squared 1.002** (0.00104) 1.003*** (0.00101) 1.003** (0.00106) Years of government service, squared (0.000948) (0.00101) (0.00114) 0.954 (0.125) 0.996 (0.137) 0.918 (0.130) (0.139) (0.154) (0.200) 0.546* (0.182) 0.654 (0.223) 0.827 (0.306) 4.998*** (1.128) 3.924*** (0.907) Odds ratio (standard error) (0.326) (0.321) 0.586* (0.185) 0.514** (0.165) (0.418) (0.413) 1.168 (0.551) 1.139 (0.552) (0.189) (0.145) 1.156 (0.451) 0.882 (0.354) 0.00502*** (0.00303) 0.00513*** (0.00310) 0.00510*** (0.00308) 0.211 (0.312) 0.547 (0.813) 0.00422** (0.0100) Legend: — = not applicable, √ = controls applied, *** = statistically significant at p-value < 0.01, ** = statistically significant at p-value < 0.05, * = statistically significant at p-value < 0.1. Tables 56 and 57 summarize the multivariate statistical regression results (specifically, duration regression results) for our estimates of the percentage differences in odds of promotion for two groupings of racial or ethnic minorities in the U.S. Agency for International Development’s (USAID) Civil and Foreign Services. We examined odds of promotion for African Americans and non– African American racial or ethnic minorities compared with whites. We examined odds of promotion for the individual racial or ethnic groups—African Americans, Hispanics, Asians, and other racial or ethnic minorities—compared with whites. Our analyses do not completely explain the reasons for differences in promotion outcomes, which may result from various unobservable factors. Thus, our analyses do not establish a causal relationship between demographic characteristics and promotion outcomes. Veteran’s status Transferring between the Foreign and Civil Services Having a hardship assignment in the prior year (Foreign Service only) Having an overseas post in the prior year (Foreign Service only) Proficiency in two or more languages other than English (Foreign Service only) Fiscal year fixed effects (indicator variables representing the fiscal year) The third model, which was limited to fiscal years 2011 through 2018, controlled for the same variables as the second model and also controlled for use of long-term leave in the previous year. Table 56 summarizes the regression results for our estimates of the percentage differences in odds of promotion for the two groupings of racial or ethnic minorities compared with whites in the Civil Service. For the first grouping, we found statistically significantly lower odds of promotion from GS-11 through GS-15 for African Americans than for whites in fiscal years 2002 through 2018 (model 2). The odds of promotion from GS-12 to GS-13 were also statistically significantly lower for non–African American racial or ethnic minorities during the same period. For the second grouping, we found statistically significantly lower odds of promotion from GS-12 to GS-13 for Asians than for whites in fiscal years 2002 through 2018. Asian (46) (24) (24) (31) (74) -49 (22) -30 (22) -2 (31) 2 (38) Other racial or ethnic minority (198) (27) (26) (68) Legend: GS = General Schedule, *** statistically significant at p-value < 0.01, ** statistically significant at p-value < 0.05, * statistically significant at p- value < 0.1, — = not applicable. Table 57 presents the summary of the regression results for our estimates of the percentage differences in odds of promotion for the two groupings of racial or ethnic minorities compared with whites in the Foreign Service. For the first grouping, we found statistically significantly lower odds of promotion from Class 4 to Class 3 for African Americans than for whites in fiscal years 2002 through 2018 (model 2). For the second grouping, we found statistically significantly lower odds of promotion from Class 3 to Class 2 for members of the “Other” racial or ethnic minority group than for whites in fiscal years 2011 through 2018 (model 3). Appendix XV: Comments from the U.S. Agency of International Development Appendix XVI: GAO Contacts and Staff Acknowledgments GAO Contacts Staff Acknowledgments In addition to the contacts named above, Mona Sehgal (Assistant Director), David Hancock (Analyst-in-Charge), Cody Knudsen, Moon Parks, Nisha Rai, Deirdre Sutula, and Melinda Cordero made key contributions to this report. Reid Lowe, Justin Fisher, Nicole Willems, and Chris Keblitis provided technical assistance.