Daily Papers

We study the problem of adaptively identifying patient subpopulations that benefit from a given treatment during a confirmatory clinical trial. This type of adaptive clinical trial has been thoroughly studied in biostatistics, but has been allowed only limited adaptivity so far. Here, we aim to relax classical restrictions on such designs and investigate how to incorporate ideas from the recent machine learning literature on adaptive and online experimentation to make trials more flexible and efficient. We find that the unique characteristics of the subpopulation selection problem -- most importantly that (i) one is usually interested in finding subpopulations with any treatment benefit (and not necessarily the single subgroup with largest effect) given a limited budget and that (ii) effectiveness only has to be demonstrated across the subpopulation on average -- give rise to interesting challenges and new desiderata when designing algorithmic solutions. Building on these findings, we propose AdaGGI and AdaGCPI, two meta-algorithms for subpopulation construction. We empirically investigate their performance across a range of simulation scenarios and derive insights into their (dis)advantages across different settings.

The Multi-armed bandit offer the advantage to learn and exploit the already learnt knowledge at the same time. This capability allows this approach to be applied in different domains, going from clinical trials where the goal is investigating the effects of different experimental treatments while minimizing patient losses, to adaptive routing where the goal is to minimize the delays in a network. This article provides a review of the recent results on applying bandit to real-life scenario and summarize the state of the art for each of these fields. Different techniques has been proposed to solve this problem setting, like epsilon-greedy, Upper confident bound (UCB) and Thompson Sampling (TS). We are showing here how this algorithms were adapted to solve the different problems of exploration exploitation.

Dynamic treatment regimes (DTRs) are personalized, adaptive, multi-stage treatment plans that adapt treatment decisions both to an individual's initial features and to intermediate outcomes and features at each subsequent stage, which are affected by decisions in prior stages. Examples include personalized first- and second-line treatments of chronic conditions like diabetes, cancer, and depression, which adapt to patient response to first-line treatment, disease progression, and individual characteristics. While existing literature mostly focuses on estimating the optimal DTR from offline data such as from sequentially randomized trials, we study the problem of developing the optimal DTR in an online manner, where the interaction with each individual affect both our cumulative reward and our data collection for future learning. We term this the DTR bandit problem. We propose a novel algorithm that, by carefully balancing exploration and exploitation, is guaranteed to achieve rate-optimal regret when the transition and reward models are linear. We demonstrate our algorithm and its benefits both in synthetic experiments and in a case study of adaptive treatment of major depressive disorder using real-world data.

Clinical trials are fundamental in developing new drugs, medical devices, and treatments. However, they are often time-consuming and have low success rates. Although there have been initial attempts to create large language models (LLMs) for clinical trial design and patient-trial matching, these models remain task-specific and not adaptable to diverse clinical trial tasks. To address this challenge, we propose a clinical trial foundation model named Panacea, designed to handle multiple tasks, including trial search, trial summarization, trial design, and patient-trial matching. We also assemble a large-scale dataset, named TrialAlign, of 793,279 trial documents and 1,113,207 trial-related scientific papers, to infuse clinical knowledge into the model by pre-training. We further curate TrialInstruct, which has 200,866 of instruction data for fine-tuning. These resources enable Panacea to be widely applicable for a range of clinical trial tasks based on user requirements. We evaluated Panacea on a new benchmark, named TrialPanorama, which covers eight clinical trial tasks. Our method performed the best on seven of the eight tasks compared to six cutting-edge generic or medicine-specific LLMs. Specifically, Panacea showed great potential to collaborate with human experts in crafting the design of eligibility criteria, study arms, and outcome measures, in multi-round conversations. In addition, Panacea achieved 14.42% improvement in patient-trial matching, 41.78% to 52.02% improvement in trial search, and consistently ranked at the top for five aspects of trial summarization. Our approach demonstrates the effectiveness of Panacea in clinical trials and establishes a comprehensive resource, including training data, model, and benchmark, for developing clinical trial foundation models, paving the path for AI-based clinical trial development.

Large Language Models (LLMs) and multi-agent systems have shown impressive capabilities in natural language tasks but face challenges in clinical trial applications, primarily due to limited access to external knowledge. Recognizing the potential of advanced clinical trial tools that aggregate and predict based on the latest medical data, we propose an integrated solution to enhance their accessibility and utility. We introduce Clinical Agent System (ClinicalAgent), a clinical multi-agent system designed for clinical trial tasks, leveraging GPT-4, multi-agent architectures, LEAST-TO-MOST, and ReAct reasoning technology. This integration not only boosts LLM performance in clinical contexts but also introduces novel functionalities. The proposed method achieves competitive predictive performance in clinical trial outcome prediction (0.7908 PR-AUC), obtaining a 0.3326 improvement over the standard prompt Method. Publicly available code can be found at https://anonymous.4open.science/r/ClinicalAgent-6671.

Developing artificial intelligence (AI) for vertical domains requires a solid data foundation for both training and evaluation. In this work, we introduce TrialPanorama, a large-scale, structured database comprising 1,657,476 clinical trial records aggregated from 15 global sources. The database captures key aspects of trial design and execution, including trial setups, interventions, conditions, biomarkers, and outcomes, and links them to standard biomedical ontologies such as DrugBank and MedDRA. This structured and ontology-grounded design enables TrialPanorama to serve as a unified, extensible resource for a wide range of clinical trial tasks, including trial planning, design, and summarization. To demonstrate its utility, we derive a suite of benchmark tasks directly from the TrialPanorama database. The benchmark spans eight tasks across two categories: three for systematic review (study search, study screening, and evidence summarization) and five for trial design (arm design, eligibility criteria, endpoint selection, sample size estimation, and trial completion assessment). The experiments using five state-of-the-art large language models (LLMs) show that while general-purpose LLMs exhibit some zero-shot capability, their performance is still inadequate for high-stakes clinical trial workflows. We release TrialPanorama database and the benchmark to facilitate further research on AI for clinical trials.

Clinical trial matching is a key process in health delivery and discovery. In practice, it is plagued by overwhelming unstructured data and unscalable manual processing. In this paper, we conduct a systematic study on scaling clinical trial matching using large language models (LLMs), with oncology as the focus area. Our study is grounded in a clinical trial matching system currently in test deployment at a large U.S. health network. Initial findings are promising: out of box, cutting-edge LLMs, such as GPT-4, can already structure elaborate eligibility criteria of clinical trials and extract complex matching logic (e.g., nested AND/OR/NOT). While still far from perfect, LLMs substantially outperform prior strong baselines and may serve as a preliminary solution to help triage patient-trial candidates with humans in the loop. Our study also reveals a few significant growth areas for applying LLMs to end-to-end clinical trial matching, such as context limitation and accuracy, especially in structuring patient information from longitudinal medical records.

Clinical trial matching is the task of identifying trials for which patients may be potentially eligible. Typically, this task is labor-intensive and requires detailed verification of patient electronic health records (EHRs) against the stringent inclusion and exclusion criteria of clinical trials. This process is manual, time-intensive, and challenging to scale up, resulting in many patients missing out on potential therapeutic options. Recent advancements in Large Language Models (LLMs) have made automating patient-trial matching possible, as shown in multiple concurrent research studies. However, the current approaches are confined to constrained, often synthetic datasets that do not adequately mirror the complexities encountered in real-world medical data. In this study, we present the first, end-to-end large-scale empirical evaluation of clinical trial matching using real-world EHRs. Our study showcases the capability of LLMs to accurately match patients with appropriate clinical trials. We perform experiments with proprietary LLMs, including GPT-4 and GPT-3.5, as well as our custom fine-tuned model called OncoLLM and show that OncoLLM, despite its significantly smaller size, not only outperforms GPT-3.5 but also matches the performance of qualified medical doctors. All experiments were carried out on real-world EHRs that include clinical notes and available clinical trials from a single cancer center in the United States.

Patient recruitment is challenging for clinical trials. We introduce TrialGPT, an end-to-end framework for zero-shot patient-to-trial matching with large language models. TrialGPT comprises three modules: it first performs large-scale filtering to retrieve candidate trials (TrialGPT-Retrieval); then predicts criterion-level patient eligibility (TrialGPT-Matching); and finally generates trial-level scores (TrialGPT-Ranking). We evaluate TrialGPT on three cohorts of 183 synthetic patients with over 75,000 trial annotations. TrialGPT-Retrieval can recall over 90% of relevant trials using less than 6% of the initial collection. Manual evaluations on 1,015 patient-criterion pairs show that TrialGPT-Matching achieves an accuracy of 87.3% with faithful explanations, close to the expert performance. The TrialGPT-Ranking scores are highly correlated with human judgments and outperform the best-competing models by 43.8% in ranking and excluding trials. Furthermore, our user study reveals that TrialGPT can reduce the screening time by 42.6% in patient recruitment. Overall, these results have demonstrated promising opportunities for patient-to-trial matching with TrialGPT.

Clinical trials drive improvements in cancer treatments and outcomes. However, most adults with cancer do not participate in trials, and trials often fail to enroll enough patients to answer their scientific questions. Artificial intelligence could accelerate matching of patients to appropriate clinical trials. Here, we describe the development and evaluation of the MatchMiner-AI pipeline for clinical trial searching and ranking. MatchMiner-AI focuses on matching patients to potential trials based on core criteria describing clinical "spaces," or disease contexts, targeted by a trial. It aims to accelerate the human work of identifying potential matches, not to fully automate trial screening. The pipeline includes modules for extraction of key information from a patient's longitudinal electronic health record; rapid ranking of candidate trial-patient matches based on embeddings in vector space; and classification of whether a candidate match represents a reasonable clinical consideration. Code and synthetic data are available at https://huggingface.co/ksg-dfci/MatchMiner-AI . Model weights based on synthetic data are available at https://huggingface.co/ksg-dfci/TrialSpace and https://huggingface.co/ksg-dfci/TrialChecker . A simple cancer clinical trial search engine to demonstrate pipeline components is available at https://huggingface.co/spaces/ksg-dfci/trial_search_alpha .

Precision therapeutics require multimodal adaptive models that generate personalized treatment recommendations. We introduce TxAgent, an AI agent that leverages multi-step reasoning and real-time biomedical knowledge retrieval across a toolbox of 211 tools to analyze drug interactions, contraindications, and patient-specific treatment strategies. TxAgent evaluates how drugs interact at molecular, pharmacokinetic, and clinical levels, identifies contraindications based on patient comorbidities and concurrent medications, and tailors treatment strategies to individual patient characteristics. It retrieves and synthesizes evidence from multiple biomedical sources, assesses interactions between drugs and patient conditions, and refines treatment recommendations through iterative reasoning. It selects tools based on task objectives and executes structured function calls to solve therapeutic tasks that require clinical reasoning and cross-source validation. The ToolUniverse consolidates 211 tools from trusted sources, including all US FDA-approved drugs since 1939 and validated clinical insights from Open Targets. TxAgent outperforms leading LLMs, tool-use models, and reasoning agents across five new benchmarks: DrugPC, BrandPC, GenericPC, TreatmentPC, and DescriptionPC, covering 3,168 drug reasoning tasks and 456 personalized treatment scenarios. It achieves 92.1% accuracy in open-ended drug reasoning tasks, surpassing GPT-4o and outperforming DeepSeek-R1 (671B) in structured multi-step reasoning. TxAgent generalizes across drug name variants and descriptions. By integrating multi-step inference, real-time knowledge grounding, and tool-assisted decision-making, TxAgent ensures that treatment recommendations align with established clinical guidelines and real-world evidence, reducing the risk of adverse events and improving therapeutic decision-making.

Clinical trials are crucial for drug development but are time consuming, expensive, and often burdensome on patients. More importantly, clinical trials face uncertain outcomes due to issues with efficacy, safety, or problems with patient recruitment. If we were better at predicting the results of clinical trials, we could avoid having to run trials that will inevitably fail more resources could be devoted to trials that are likely to succeed. In this paper, we propose Hierarchical INteraction Network (HINT) for more general, clinical trial outcome predictions for all diseases based on a comprehensive and diverse set of web data including molecule information of the drugs, target disease information, trial protocol and biomedical knowledge. HINT first encode these multi-modal data into latent embeddings, where an imputation module is designed to handle missing data. Next, these embeddings will be fed into the knowledge embedding module to generate knowledge embeddings that are pretrained using external knowledge on pharmaco-kinetic properties and trial risk from the web. Then the interaction graph module will connect all the embedding via domain knowledge to fully capture various trial components and their complex relations as well as their influences on trial outcomes. Finally, HINT learns a dynamic attentive graph neural network to predict trial outcome. Comprehensive experimental results show that HINT achieves strong predictive performance, obtaining 0.772, 0.607, 0.623, 0.703 on PR-AUC for Phase I, II, III, and indication outcome prediction, respectively. It also consistently outperforms the best baseline method by up to 12.4\% on PR-AUC.

Synthesizing clinical evidence largely relies on systematic reviews of clinical trials and retrospective analyses from medical literature. However, the rapid expansion of publications presents challenges in efficiently identifying, summarizing, and updating clinical evidence. Here, we introduce TrialMind, a generative artificial intelligence (AI) pipeline for facilitating human-AI collaboration in three crucial tasks for evidence synthesis: study search, screening, and data extraction. To assess its performance, we chose published systematic reviews to build the benchmark dataset, named TrialReviewBench, which contains 100 systematic reviews and the associated 2,220 clinical studies. Our results show that TrialMind excels across all three tasks. In study search, it generates diverse and comprehensive search queries to achieve high recall rates (Ours 0.711-0.834 v.s. Human baseline 0.138-0.232). For study screening, TrialMind surpasses traditional embedding-based methods by 30% to 160%. In data extraction, it outperforms a GPT-4 baseline by 29.6% to 61.5%. We further conducted user studies to confirm its practical utility. Compared to manual efforts, human-AI collaboration using TrialMind yielded a 71.4% recall lift and 44.2% time savings in study screening and a 23.5% accuracy lift and 63.4% time savings in data extraction. Additionally, when comparing synthesized clinical evidence presented in forest plots, medical experts favored TrialMind's outputs over GPT-4's outputs in 62.5% to 100% of cases. These findings show the promise of LLM-based approaches like TrialMind to accelerate clinical evidence synthesis via streamlining study search, screening, and data extraction from medical literature, with exceptional performance improvement when working with human experts.

Indirect experiments provide a valuable framework for estimating treatment effects in situations where conducting randomized control trials (RCTs) is impractical or unethical. Unlike RCTs, indirect experiments estimate treatment effects by leveraging (conditional) instrumental variables, enabling estimation through encouragement and recommendation rather than strict treatment assignment. However, the sample efficiency of such estimators depends not only on the inherent variability in outcomes but also on the varying compliance levels of users with the instrumental variables and the choice of estimator being used, especially when dealing with numerous instrumental variables. While adaptive experiment design has a rich literature for direct experiments, in this paper we take the initial steps towards enhancing sample efficiency for indirect experiments by adaptively designing a data collection policy over instrumental variables. Our main contribution is a practical computational procedure that utilizes influence functions to search for an optimal data collection policy, minimizing the mean-squared error of the desired (non-linear) estimator. Through experiments conducted in various domains inspired by real-world applications, we showcase how our method can significantly improve the sample efficiency of indirect experiments.

Clinical trials disruption has always represented a non negligible part of the ending of interventional studies. While the SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) pandemic has led to an impressive and unprecedented initiation of clinical research, it has also led to considerable disruption of clinical trials in other disease areas, with around 80% of non-COVID-19 trials stopped or interrupted during the pandemic. In many cases the disrupted trials will not have the planned statistical power necessary to yield interpretable results. This paper describes methods to compensate for the information loss arising from trial disruptions by incorporating additional information available from auxiliary data sources. The methods described include the use of auxiliary data on baseline and early outcome data available from the trial itself and frequentist and Bayesian approaches for the incorporation of information from external data sources. The methods are illustrated by application to the analysis of artificial data based on the Primary care pediatrics Learning Activity Nutrition (PLAN) study, a clinical trial assessing a diet and exercise intervention for overweight children, that was affected by the COVID-19 pandemic. We show how all of the methods proposed lead to an increase in precision relative to use of complete case data only.

This work proposes a procedure for designing algorithms for specific adaptive data collection tasks like active learning and pure-exploration multi-armed bandits. Unlike the design of traditional adaptive algorithms that rely on concentration of measure and careful analysis to justify the correctness and sample complexity of the procedure, our adaptive algorithm is learned via adversarial training over equivalence classes of problems derived from information theoretic lower bounds. In particular, a single adaptive learning algorithm is learned that competes with the best adaptive algorithm learned for each equivalence class. Our procedure takes as input just the available queries, set of hypotheses, loss function, and total query budget. This is in contrast to existing meta-learning work that learns an adaptive algorithm relative to an explicit, user-defined subset or prior distribution over problems which can be challenging to define and be mismatched to the instance encountered at test time. This work is particularly focused on the regime when the total query budget is very small, such as a few dozen, which is much smaller than those budgets typically considered by theoretically derived algorithms. We perform synthetic experiments to justify the stability and effectiveness of the training procedure, and then evaluate the method on tasks derived from real data including a noisy 20 Questions game and a joke recommendation task.

Clinical trials or studies oftentimes require long-term and/or costly follow-up of participants to evaluate a novel treatment/drug/vaccine. There has been increasing interest in the past few decades in using short-term surrogate outcomes as a replacement of the primary outcome i.e., in using the surrogate outcome, which can potentially be observed sooner, to make inference about the treatment effect on the long-term primary outcome. Very few of the available statistical methods to evaluate a surrogate are applicable to settings where both the surrogate and the primary outcome are time-to-event outcomes subject to censoring. Methods that can handle this setting tend to require parametric assumptions or be limited to assessing only the restricted mean survival time. In this paper, we propose a non-parametric approach to evaluate a censored surrogate outcome, such as time to progression, when the primary outcome is also a censored time-to-event outcome, such as time to death, and the treatment effect of interest is the difference in overall survival. Specifically, we define the proportion of the treatment effect on the primary outcome that is explained (PTE) by the censored surrogate outcome in this context, and estimate this proportion by defining and deriving an optimal transformation of the surrogate information. Our approach provides the added advantage of relaxed assumptions to guarantee that the true PTE is within (0,1), along with being model-free. Finite sample performance of our estimators are illustrated via extensive simulation studies and a real data application examining progression-free survival as a surrogate for overall survival for patients with metastatic colorectal cancer.

Large participatory biomedical studies, studies that recruit individuals to join a dataset, are gaining popularity and investment, especially for analysis by modern AI methods. Because they purposively recruit participants, these studies are uniquely able to address a lack of historical representation, an issue that has affected many biomedical datasets. In this work, we define representativeness as the similarity to a target population distribution of a set of attributes and our goal is to mirror the U.S. population across distributions of age, gender, race, and ethnicity. Many participatory studies recruit at several institutions, so we introduce a computational approach to adaptively allocate recruitment resources among sites to improve representativeness. In simulated recruitment of 10,000-participant cohorts from medical centers in the STAR Clinical Research Network, we show that our approach yields a more representative cohort than existing baselines. Thus, we highlight the value of computational modeling in guiding recruitment efforts.

We consider the task of evaluating policies of algorithmic resource allocation through randomized controlled trials (RCTs). Such policies are tasked with optimizing the utilization of limited intervention resources, with the goal of maximizing the benefits derived. Evaluation of such allocation policies through RCTs proves difficult, notwithstanding the scale of the trial, because the individuals' outcomes are inextricably interlinked through resource constraints controlling the policy decisions. Our key contribution is to present a new estimator leveraging our proposed novel concept, that involves retrospective reshuffling of participants across experimental arms at the end of an RCT. We identify conditions under which such reassignments are permissible and can be leveraged to construct counterfactual trials, whose outcomes can be accurately ascertained, for free. We prove theoretically that such an estimator is more accurate than common estimators based on sample means -- we show that it returns an unbiased estimate and simultaneously reduces variance. We demonstrate the value of our approach through empirical experiments on synthetic, semi-synthetic as well as real case study data and show improved estimation accuracy across the board.

Natural language processing (NLP) of clinical trial documents can be useful in new trial design. Here we identify entity types relevant to clinical trial design and propose a framework called CT-BERT for information extraction from clinical trial text. We trained named entity recognition (NER) models to extract eligibility criteria entities by fine-tuning a set of pre-trained BERT models. We then compared the performance of CT-BERT with recent baseline methods including attention-based BiLSTM and Criteria2Query. The results demonstrate the superiority of CT-BERT in clinical trial NLP.

Humans have the ability to adapt the type of information they use, the procedure they employ, and the amount of time they spend when solving problems. However, most standard neural networks have a fixed function type and computation budget regardless of the sample's nature or difficulty. Adaptivity is a powerful paradigm as it not only imbues practitioners with flexibility pertaining to the downstream usage of these models but can also serve as a powerful inductive bias for solving certain challenging classes of problems. In this work, we introduce a new approach called AdaTape, which allows for dynamic computation in neural networks through adaptive tape tokens. AdaTape utilizes an elastic input sequence by equipping an architecture with a dynamic read-and-write tape. Specifically, we adaptively generate input sequences using tape tokens obtained from a tape bank which can be either trainable or derived from input data. We examine the challenges and requirements to obtain dynamic sequence content and length, and propose the Adaptive Tape Reading (ATR) algorithm to achieve both goals. Through extensive experiments on image recognition tasks, we show that AdaTape can achieve better performance while maintaining the computational cost. To facilitate further research, we have released code at https://github.com/google-research/scenic.

Scientific discovery relies on scientists generating novel hypotheses that undergo rigorous experimental validation. To augment this process, we introduce an AI co-scientist, a multi-agent system built on Gemini 2.0. The AI co-scientist is intended to help uncover new, original knowledge and to formulate demonstrably novel research hypotheses and proposals, building upon prior evidence and aligned to scientist-provided research objectives and guidance. The system's design incorporates a generate, debate, and evolve approach to hypothesis generation, inspired by the scientific method and accelerated by scaling test-time compute. Key contributions include: (1) a multi-agent architecture with an asynchronous task execution framework for flexible compute scaling; (2) a tournament evolution process for self-improving hypotheses generation. Automated evaluations show continued benefits of test-time compute, improving hypothesis quality. While general purpose, we focus development and validation in three biomedical areas: drug repurposing, novel target discovery, and explaining mechanisms of bacterial evolution and anti-microbial resistance. For drug repurposing, the system proposes candidates with promising validation findings, including candidates for acute myeloid leukemia that show tumor inhibition in vitro at clinically applicable concentrations. For novel target discovery, the AI co-scientist proposed new epigenetic targets for liver fibrosis, validated by anti-fibrotic activity and liver cell regeneration in human hepatic organoids. Finally, the AI co-scientist recapitulated unpublished experimental results via a parallel in silico discovery of a novel gene transfer mechanism in bacterial evolution. These results, detailed in separate, co-timed reports, demonstrate the potential to augment biomedical and scientific discovery and usher an era of AI empowered scientists.

The global cost of drug discovery and development exceeds $200 billion annually. The main results of drug discovery and development are the outcomes of clinical trials, which directly influence the regulatory approval of new drug candidates and ultimately affect patient outcomes. Despite their significance, large-scale, high-quality clinical trial outcome data are not readily available to the public. Suppose a large clinical trial outcome dataset is provided; machine learning researchers can potentially develop accurate prediction models using past trials and outcome labels, which could help prioritize and optimize therapeutic programs, ultimately benefiting patients. This paper introduces Clinical Trial Outcome (CTO) dataset, the largest trial outcome dataset with around 479K clinical trials, aggregating outcomes from multiple sources of weakly supervised labels, minimizing the noise from individual sources, and eliminating the need for human annotation. These sources include large language model (LLM) decisions on trial-related documents, news headline sentiments, stock prices of trial sponsors, trial linkages across phases, and other signals such as patient dropout rates and adverse events. CTO's labels show unprecedented agreement with supervised clinical trial outcome labels from test split of the supervised TOP dataset, with a 91 F1.

This paper describes the results of SemEval 2023 task 7 -- Multi-Evidence Natural Language Inference for Clinical Trial Data (NLI4CT) -- consisting of 2 tasks, a Natural Language Inference (NLI) task, and an evidence selection task on clinical trial data. The proposed challenges require multi-hop biomedical and numerical reasoning, which are of significant importance to the development of systems capable of large-scale interpretation and retrieval of medical evidence, to provide personalized evidence-based care. Task 1, the entailment task, received 643 submissions from 40 participants, and Task 2, the evidence selection task, received 364 submissions from 23 participants. The tasks are challenging, with the majority of submitted systems failing to significantly outperform the majority class baseline on the entailment task, and we observe significantly better performance on the evidence selection task than on the entailment task. Increasing the number of model parameters leads to a direct increase in performance, far more significant than the effect of biomedical pre-training. Future works could explore the limitations of large models for generalization and numerical inference, and investigate methods to augment clinical datasets to allow for more rigorous testing and to facilitate fine-tuning. We envisage that the dataset, models, and results of this task will be useful to the biomedical NLI and evidence retrieval communities. The dataset, competition leaderboard, and website are publicly available.

Large language models (LLMs) have emerged as powerful tools for analyzing complex datasets. Recent studies demonstrate their potential to generate useful, personalized responses when provided with patient-specific health information that encompasses lifestyle, biomarkers, and context. As LLM-driven health applications are increasingly adopted, rigorous and efficient one-sided evaluation methodologies are crucial to ensure response quality across multiple dimensions, including accuracy, personalization and safety. Current evaluation practices for open-ended text responses heavily rely on human experts. This approach introduces human factors and is often cost-prohibitive, labor-intensive, and hinders scalability, especially in complex domains like healthcare where response assessment necessitates domain expertise and considers multifaceted patient data. In this work, we introduce Adaptive Precise Boolean rubrics: an evaluation framework that streamlines human and automated evaluation of open-ended questions by identifying gaps in model responses using a minimal set of targeted rubrics questions. Our approach is based on recent work in more general evaluation settings that contrasts a smaller set of complex evaluation targets with a larger set of more precise, granular targets answerable with simple boolean responses. We validate this approach in metabolic health, a domain encompassing diabetes, cardiovascular disease, and obesity. Our results demonstrate that Adaptive Precise Boolean rubrics yield higher inter-rater agreement among expert and non-expert human evaluators, and in automated assessments, compared to traditional Likert scales, while requiring approximately half the evaluation time of Likert-based methods. This enhanced efficiency, particularly in automated evaluation and non-expert contributions, paves the way for more extensive and cost-effective evaluation of LLMs in health.

Meta-analyses statistically aggregate the findings of different randomized controlled trials (RCTs) to assess treatment effectiveness. Because this yields robust estimates of treatment effectiveness, results from meta-analyses are considered the strongest form of evidence. However, rigorous evidence syntheses are time-consuming and labor-intensive, requiring manual extraction of data from individual trials to be synthesized. Ideally, language technologies would permit fully automatic meta-analysis, on demand. This requires accurately extracting numerical results from individual trials, which has been beyond the capabilities of natural language processing (NLP) models to date. In this work, we evaluate whether modern large language models (LLMs) can reliably perform this task. We annotate (and release) a modest but granular evaluation dataset of clinical trial reports with numerical findings attached to interventions, comparators, and outcomes. Using this dataset, we evaluate the performance of seven LLMs applied zero-shot for the task of conditionally extracting numerical findings from trial reports. We find that massive LLMs that can accommodate lengthy inputs are tantalizingly close to realizing fully automatic meta-analysis, especially for dichotomous (binary) outcomes (e.g., mortality). However, LLMs -- including ones trained on biomedical texts -- perform poorly when the outcome measures are complex and tallying the results requires inference. This work charts a path toward fully automatic meta-analysis of RCTs via LLMs, while also highlighting the limitations of existing models for this aim.

Recent advances in inference time scaling with extended long chain-of thought have significantly improved the reasoning capabilities of both general and medical large language models (LLMs). However, these models tend to engage in lengthy reasoning processes regardless of the difficulty of the input question, leading to increased inference costs in real-world applications. Therefore, enabling adaptive thinking where models think less for simpler questions and think more for complex ones is critical for the effective use of medical LLMs in practice. Despite its importance, there is a lack of end-to-end approaches designed to enhance the adaptive thinking capabilities of medical LLMs while providing a comprehensive examination of the trade-off between performance and computational cost. To bridge this gap, we propose AdaThink-Med, the first end-to-end framework designed to enhance adaptive thinking ability in medical reasoning models with uncertainty-guided length calibration. AdaThink-Med first generates multiple candidate outputs for each question, evaluates the correctness and uncertainty of each candidate, and then estimates problem difficulty via an uncertainty-guided length calibration module. For outputs with low difficulty and correct answers, the framework penalizes longer reasoning paths; whereas for those with high difficulty and incorrect answers, it encourages extending the chain of thought to explore alternative solutions. On six public medical QA benchmarks, AdaThink-Med achieves up to 6.4x length reduction on average while retaining performance with only minimal degradation. Intriguingly, we observe that AdaThink-Med spontaneously develops two distinct reasoning modes, which we characterize as "non-thinking" and "thinking", demonstrating the model's ability to suppress redundant reasoning processes dynamically.

Randomized controlled trials are susceptible to imbalance on covariates predictive of the outcome. Rerandomization and deterministic treatment assignment are two proposed solutions. This paper explores the relationship between rerandomization and deterministic assignment, showing how deterministic assignment is an extreme case of rerandomization. The paper argues that in small experiments, both fully randomized and fully deterministic assignment have limitations. Instead, the researcher should consider setting the rerandomization acceptance probability based on an analysis of covariates and assumptions about the data structure to achieve an optimal alignment between randomness and balance. This allows for the calculation of minimum p-values along with valid permutation tests and fiducial intervals. The paper also introduces tools, including a new, open-source R package named fastrerandomize, to implement rerandomization and explore options for optimal rerandomization acceptance thresholds.

To effectively optimize and personalize treatments, it is necessary to investigate the heterogeneity of treatment effects. With the wide range of users being treated over many online controlled experiments, the typical approach of manually investigating each dimension of heterogeneity becomes overly cumbersome and prone to subjective human biases. We need an efficient way to search through thousands of experiments with hundreds of target covariates and hundreds of breakdown dimensions. In this paper, we propose a systematic paradigm for detecting, surfacing and characterizing heterogeneous treatment effects. First, we detect if treatment effect variation is present in an experiment, prior to specifying any breakdowns. Second, we surface the most relevant dimensions for heterogeneity. Finally, we characterize the heterogeneity beyond just the conditional average treatment effects (CATE) by studying the conditional distributions of the estimated individual treatment effects. We show the effectiveness of our methods using simulated data and empirical studies.

Predicting how different interventions will causally affect a specific individual is important in a variety of domains such as personalized medicine, public policy, and online marketing. There are a large number of methods to predict the effect of an existing intervention based on historical data from individuals who received it. However, in many settings it is important to predict the effects of novel interventions (e.g., a newly invented drug), which these methods do not address. Here, we consider zero-shot causal learning: predicting the personalized effects of a novel intervention. We propose CaML, a causal meta-learning framework which formulates the personalized prediction of each intervention's effect as a task. CaML trains a single meta-model across thousands of tasks, each constructed by sampling an intervention, along with its recipients and nonrecipients. By leveraging both intervention information (e.g., a drug's attributes) and individual features~(e.g., a patient's history), CaML is able to predict the personalized effects of novel interventions that do not exist at the time of training. Experimental results on real world datasets in large-scale medical claims and cell-line perturbations demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach. Most strikingly, CaML's zero-shot predictions outperform even strong baselines trained directly on data from the test interventions.

Understanding causality should be a core requirement of any attempt to build real impact through AI. Due to the inherent unobservability of counterfactuals, large randomised trials (RCTs) are the standard for causal inference. But large experiments are generically expensive, and randomisation carries its own costs, e.g. when suboptimal decisions are trialed. Recent work has proposed more sample-efficient alternatives to RCTs, but these are not adaptable to the downstream application for which the causal effect is sought. In this work, we develop a task-specific approach to experimental design and derive sampling strategies customised to particular downstream applications. Across a range of important tasks, real-world datasets, and sample sizes, our method outperforms other benchmarks, e.g. requiring an order-of-magnitude less data to match RCT performance on targeted marketing tasks.

Reinforcement finetuning (RFT) has shown great potential for enhancing the mathematical reasoning capabilities of large language models (LLMs), but it is often sample- and compute-inefficient, requiring extensive training. In this work, we introduce AdaRFT (Adaptive Curriculum Reinforcement Finetuning), a method that significantly improves both the efficiency and final accuracy of RFT through adaptive curriculum learning. AdaRFT dynamically adjusts the difficulty of training problems based on the model's recent reward signals, ensuring that the model consistently trains on tasks that are challenging but solvable. This adaptive sampling strategy accelerates learning by maintaining an optimal difficulty range, avoiding wasted computation on problems that are too easy or too hard. AdaRFT requires only a lightweight extension to standard RFT algorithms like Proximal Policy Optimization (PPO), without modifying the reward function or model architecture. Experiments on competition-level math datasets-including AMC, AIME, and IMO-style problems-demonstrate that AdaRFT significantly improves both training efficiency and reasoning performance. We evaluate AdaRFT across multiple data distributions and model sizes, showing that it reduces the number of training steps by up to 2x and improves accuracy by a considerable margin, offering a more scalable and effective RFT framework.

Recruiting patients to participate in clinical trials can be challenging and time-consuming. Usually, participation in a clinical trial is initiated by a healthcare professional and proposed to the patient. Promoting clinical trials directly to patients via online recruitment might help to reach them more efficiently. In this study, we address the case where a patient is initiating their own recruitment process and wants to determine whether they are eligible for a given clinical trial, using their own language to describe their medical profile. To study whether this creates difficulties in the patient trial matching process, we design a new dataset and task, Natural Language Inference for Patient Recruitment (NLI4PR), in which patient language profiles must be matched to clinical trials. We create it by adapting the TREC 2022 Clinical Trial Track dataset, which provides patients' medical profiles, and rephrasing them manually using patient language. We also use the associated clinical trial reports where the patients are either eligible or excluded. We prompt several open-source Large Language Models on our task and achieve from 56.5 to 71.8 of F1 score using patient language, against 64.7 to 73.1 for the same task using medical language. When using patient language, we observe only a small loss in performance for the best model, suggesting that having the patient as a starting point could be adopted to help recruit patients for clinical trials. The corpus and code bases are all freely available on our Github and HuggingFace repositories.

We consider the problem of automatically generating a narrative biomedical evidence summary from multiple trial reports. We evaluate modern neural models for abstractive summarization of relevant article abstracts from systematic reviews previously conducted by members of the Cochrane collaboration, using the authors conclusions section of the review abstract as our target. We enlist medical professionals to evaluate generated summaries, and we find that modern summarization systems yield consistently fluent and relevant synopses, but that they are not always factual. We propose new approaches that capitalize on domain-specific models to inform summarization, e.g., by explicitly demarcating snippets of inputs that convey key findings, and emphasizing the reports of large and high-quality trials. We find that these strategies modestly improve the factual accuracy of generated summaries. Finally, we propose a new method for automatically evaluating the factuality of generated narrative evidence syntheses using models that infer the directionality of reported findings.

Considerable effort has been dedicated to mitigating toxicity, but existing methods often require drastic modifications to model parameters or the use of computationally intensive auxiliary models. Furthermore, previous approaches have often neglected the crucial factor of language's evolving nature over time. In this work, we present a comprehensive perspective on toxicity mitigation that takes into account its changing nature. We introduce Goodtriever, a flexible methodology that matches the current state-of-the-art toxicity mitigation while achieving 43% relative latency reduction during inference and being more computationally efficient. By incorporating a retrieval-based approach at decoding time, Goodtriever enables toxicity-controlled text generation. Our research advocates for an increased focus on adaptable mitigation techniques, which better reflect the data drift models face when deployed in the wild. Code and data are available at https://github.com/for-ai/goodtriever.

Machine learning (ML) holds great potential for accurately forecasting treatment outcomes over time, which could ultimately enable the adoption of more individualized treatment strategies in many practical applications. However, a significant challenge that has been largely overlooked by the ML literature on this topic is the presence of informative sampling in observational data. When instances are observed irregularly over time, sampling times are typically not random, but rather informative -- depending on the instance's characteristics, past outcomes, and administered treatments. In this work, we formalize informative sampling as a covariate shift problem and show that it can prohibit accurate estimation of treatment outcomes if not properly accounted for. To overcome this challenge, we present a general framework for learning treatment outcomes in the presence of informative sampling using inverse intensity-weighting, and propose a novel method, TESAR-CDE, that instantiates this framework using Neural CDEs. Using a simulation environment based on a clinical use case, we demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach in learning under informative sampling.

Randomized controlled trials (RCTs) are the benchmark for causal inference, yet field implementation can deviate. We here present a remote audit - a design-based, preregistrable diagnostic that uses only pre-treatment satellite imagery to test whether assignment is independent of local conditions. The conditional randomization test of the remote audit evaluates whether treatment assignment is more predictable from pre-treatment satellite features than expected under the experiment's registered mechanism, providing a finite-sample valid, design-based diagnostic that requires no parametric assumptions. The procedure is finite-sample valid, honors blocks and clusters, and controls multiplicity across image models and resolutions via a max-statistic. We illustrate with two RCTs: Uganda's Youth Opportunities Program, where the audit corroborates randomization and flags selection and missing-data risks; and a school-based trial in Bangladesh, where assignment is highly predictable from pre-treatment features relative to the stated design, consistent with independent concerns about irregularities. Remote audits complement balance tests, lower early-stage costs, and enable rapid design checks when baseline surveys are expensive or infeasible.

Clinical evidence, derived from rigorous research and data analysis, provides healthcare professionals with reliable scientific foundations for informed decision-making. Integrating clinical evidence into real-time practice is challenging due to the enormous workload, complex professional processes, and time constraints. This highlights the need for tools that automate evidence synthesis to support more efficient and accurate decision making in clinical settings. This study introduces Quicker, an evidence-based clinical decision support system powered by large language models (LLMs), designed to automate evidence synthesis and generate clinical recommendations modeled after standard clinical guideline development processes. Quicker implements a fully automated chain that covers all phases, from questions to clinical recommendations, and further enables customized decision-making through integrated tools and interactive user interfaces. To evaluate Quicker's capabilities, we developed the Q2CRBench-3 benchmark dataset, based on clinical guideline development records for three different diseases. Experimental results highlighted Quicker's strong performance, with fine-grained question decomposition tailored to user preferences, retrieval sensitivities comparable to human experts, and literature screening performance approaching comprehensive inclusion of relevant studies. In addition, Quicker-assisted evidence assessment effectively supported human reviewers, while Quicker's recommendations were more comprehensive and logically coherent than those of clinicians. In system-level testing, collaboration between a single reviewer and Quicker reduced the time required for recommendation development to 20-40 minutes. In general, our findings affirm the potential of Quicker to help physicians make quicker and more reliable evidence-based clinical decisions.

Recent advances in generative models, including large language models (LLMs), vision language models (VLMs), and diffusion models, have accelerated the field of natural language and image processing in medicine and marked a significant paradigm shift in how biomedical models can be developed and deployed. While these models are highly adaptable to new tasks, scaling and evaluating their usage presents new challenges not addressed in previous frameworks. In particular, the ability of these models to produce useful outputs with little to no specialized training data ("zero-" or "few-shot" approaches), as well as the open-ended nature of their outputs, necessitate the development of new guidelines for robust reporting of clinical generative model research. In response to gaps in standards and best practices for the development of clinical AI tools identified by US Executive Order 141103 and several emerging national networks for clinical AI evaluation, we begin to formalize some of these guidelines by building on the original MI-CLAIM checklist. The new checklist, MI-CLAIM-GEN (Table 1), aims to address differences in training, evaluation, interpretability, and reproducibility of new generative models compared to non-generative ("predictive") AI models. This MI-CLAIM-GEN checklist also seeks to clarify cohort selection reporting with unstructured clinical data and adds additional items on alignment with ethical standards for clinical AI research.

Over the recent years, the emergence of large language models (LLMs) has given rise to a proliferation of domain-specific models that are intended to reflect the particularities of linguistic context and content as a correlate of the originating domain. This paper details the conception, design, training and evaluation of DAEDRA, a LLM designed to detect regulatory-relevant outcomes (mortality, ER attendance and hospitalisation) in adverse event reports elicited through passive reporting (PR). While PR is a highly cost-efficient way of eliciting information from a wide and diverse audience -- typically including not only physicians and healthcare providers but also patients, family members and other lay stakeholders --, this diversity makes PR corpora difficult to analyse. Generic language models may not capture the complex clinical dimensions while specific clinical or biomedical models may not perform well on lay reports. To evaluate the utility of a subdomain-specific language model, an adaptive training approach was adapted, wherein base language model candidates were evaluated on a subset of the corpus, and the best performer was trained on the entire corpus. This yielded a small but significant improvement in F_1 (+1%), precision (+2.5%) and recall (+3.8%), at a relatively low training cost and a single-day training time. Subdomain-specific LLMs continue to be viable options for better results when analysing highly specialised corpora.

Radiation therapy plays a crucial role in cancer treatment, necessitating precise delivery of radiation to tumors while sparing healthy tissues over multiple days. Computed tomography (CT) is integral for treatment planning, offering electron density data crucial for accurate dose calculations. However, accurately representing patient anatomy is challenging, especially in adaptive radiotherapy, where CT is not acquired daily. Magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) provides superior soft-tissue contrast. Still, it lacks electron density information while cone beam CT (CBCT) lacks direct electron density calibration and is mainly used for patient positioning. Adopting MRI-only or CBCT-based adaptive radiotherapy eliminates the need for CT planning but presents challenges. Synthetic CT (sCT) generation techniques aim to address these challenges by using image synthesis to bridge the gap between MRI, CBCT, and CT. The SynthRAD2023 challenge was organized to compare synthetic CT generation methods using multi-center ground truth data from 1080 patients, divided into two tasks: 1) MRI-to-CT and 2) CBCT-to-CT. The evaluation included image similarity and dose-based metrics from proton and photon plans. The challenge attracted significant participation, with 617 registrations and 22/17 valid submissions for tasks 1/2. Top-performing teams achieved high structural similarity indices (>0.87/0.90) and gamma pass rates for photon (>98.1%/99.0%) and proton (>99.0%/97.3%) plans. However, no significant correlation was found between image similarity metrics and dose accuracy, emphasizing the need for dose evaluation when assessing the clinical applicability of sCT. SynthRAD2023 facilitated the investigation and benchmarking of sCT generation techniques, providing insights for developing MRI-only and CBCT-based adaptive radiotherapy.

Adverse drug events (ADEs) significantly impact clinical research, causing many clinical trial failures. ADE prediction is key for developing safer medications and enhancing patient outcomes. To support this effort, we introduce CT-ADE, a dataset for multilabel predictive modeling of ADEs in monopharmacy treatments. CT-ADE integrates data from 2,497 unique drugs, encompassing 168,984 drug-ADE pairs extracted from clinical trials, annotated with patient and contextual information, and comprehensive ADE concepts standardized across multiple levels of the MedDRA ontology. Preliminary analyses with large language models (LLMs) achieved F1-scores up to 55.90%. Models using patient and contextual information showed F1-score improvements of 21%-38% over models using only chemical structure data. Our results highlight the importance of target population and treatment regimens in the predictive modeling of ADEs, offering greater performance gains than LLM domain specialization and scaling. CT-ADE provides an essential tool for researchers aiming to leverage artificial intelligence and machine learning to enhance patient safety and minimize the impact of ADEs on pharmaceutical research and development. The dataset is publicly accessible at https://github.com/ds4dh/CT-ADE.

How do we most effectively treat a disease or condition? Ideally, we could consult a database of evidence gleaned from clinical trials to answer such questions. Unfortunately, no such database exists; clinical trial results are instead disseminated primarily via lengthy natural language articles. Perusing all such articles would be prohibitively time-consuming for healthcare practitioners; they instead tend to depend on manually compiled systematic reviews of medical literature to inform care. NLP may speed this process up, and eventually facilitate immediate consult of published evidence. The Evidence Inference dataset was recently released to facilitate research toward this end. This task entails inferring the comparative performance of two treatments, with respect to a given outcome, from a particular article (describing a clinical trial) and identifying supporting evidence. For instance: Does this article report that chemotherapy performed better than surgery for five-year survival rates of operable cancers? In this paper, we collect additional annotations to expand the Evidence Inference dataset by 25\%, provide stronger baseline models, systematically inspect the errors that these make, and probe dataset quality. We also release an abstract only (as opposed to full-texts) version of the task for rapid model prototyping. The updated corpus, documentation, and code for new baselines and evaluations are available at http://evidence-inference.ebm-nlp.com/.

We introduce ADEPT: Adaptive Data ExPloiTation, a simple yet powerful framework to enhance the **data efficiency** and **generalization** in deep reinforcement learning (RL). Specifically, ADEPT adaptively manages the use of sampled data across different learning stages via multi-armed bandit (MAB) algorithms, optimizing data utilization while mitigating overfitting. Moreover, ADEPT can significantly reduce the computational overhead and accelerate a wide range of RL algorithms. We test ADEPT on benchmarks including Procgen, MiniGrid, and PyBullet. Extensive simulation demonstrates that ADEPT can achieve superior performance with remarkable computational efficiency, offering a practical solution to data-efficient RL. Our code is available at https://github.com/yuanmingqi/ADEPT.

Large Language Models (LLMs) are at the forefront of NLP achievements but fall short in dealing with shortcut learning, factual inconsistency, and vulnerability to adversarial inputs.These shortcomings are especially critical in medical contexts, where they can misrepresent actual model capabilities. Addressing this, we present SemEval-2024 Task 2: Safe Biomedical Natural Language Inference for ClinicalTrials. Our contributions include the refined NLI4CT-P dataset (i.e., Natural Language Inference for Clinical Trials - Perturbed), designed to challenge LLMs with interventional and causal reasoning tasks, along with a comprehensive evaluation of methods and results for participant submissions. A total of 106 participants registered for the task contributing to over 1200 individual submissions and 25 system overview papers. This initiative aims to advance the robustness and applicability of NLI models in healthcare, ensuring safer and more dependable AI assistance in clinical decision-making. We anticipate that the dataset, models, and outcomes of this task can support future research in the field of biomedical NLI. The dataset, competition leaderboard, and website are publicly available.

Systematic literature review is essential for evidence-based medicine, requiring comprehensive analysis of clinical trial publications. However, the application of artificial intelligence (AI) models for medical literature mining has been limited by insufficient training and evaluation across broad therapeutic areas and diverse tasks. Here, we present LEADS, an AI foundation model for study search, screening, and data extraction from medical literature. The model is trained on 633,759 instruction data points in LEADSInstruct, curated from 21,335 systematic reviews, 453,625 clinical trial publications, and 27,015 clinical trial registries. We showed that LEADS demonstrates consistent improvements over four cutting-edge generic large language models (LLMs) on six tasks. Furthermore, LEADS enhances expert workflows by providing supportive references following expert requests, streamlining processes while maintaining high-quality results. A study with 16 clinicians and medical researchers from 14 different institutions revealed that experts collaborating with LEADS achieved a recall of 0.81 compared to 0.77 experts working alone in study selection, with a time savings of 22.6%. In data extraction tasks, experts using LEADS achieved an accuracy of 0.85 versus 0.80 without using LEADS, alongside a 26.9% time savings. These findings highlight the potential of specialized medical literature foundation models to outperform generic models, delivering significant quality and efficiency benefits when integrated into expert workflows for medical literature mining.

Large Language Models (LLMs) have great potential in the field of health care, yet they face great challenges in adapting to rapidly evolving medical knowledge. This can lead to outdated or contradictory treatment suggestions. This study investigated how LLMs respond to evolving clinical guidelines, focusing on concept drift and internal inconsistencies. We developed the DriftMedQA benchmark to simulate guideline evolution and assessed the temporal reliability of various LLMs. Our evaluation of seven state-of-the-art models across 4,290 scenarios demonstrated difficulties in rejecting outdated recommendations and frequently endorsing conflicting guidance. Additionally, we explored two mitigation strategies: Retrieval-Augmented Generation and preference fine-tuning via Direct Preference Optimization. While each method improved model performance, their combination led to the most consistent and reliable results. These findings underscore the need to improve LLM robustness to temporal shifts to ensure more dependable applications in clinical practice.

We theoretically explore the relationship between sample-efficiency and adaptivity in reinforcement learning. An algorithm is sample-efficient if it uses a number of queries n to the environment that is polynomial in the dimension d of the problem. Adaptivity refers to the frequency at which queries are sent and feedback is processed to update the querying strategy. To investigate this interplay, we employ a learning framework that allows sending queries in K batches, with feedback being processed and queries updated after each batch. This model encompasses the whole adaptivity spectrum, ranging from non-adaptive 'offline' (K=1) to fully adaptive (K=n) scenarios, and regimes in between. For the problems of policy evaluation and best-policy identification under d-dimensional linear function approximation, we establish Omega(log log d) lower bounds on the number of batches K required for sample-efficient algorithms with n = O(poly(d)) queries. Our results show that just having adaptivity (K>1) does not necessarily guarantee sample-efficiency. Notably, the adaptivity-boundary for sample-efficiency is not between offline reinforcement learning (K=1), where sample-efficiency was known to not be possible, and adaptive settings. Instead, the boundary lies between different regimes of adaptivity and depends on the problem dimension.

The assessment of safety performance plays a pivotal role in the development and deployment of connected and automated vehicles (CAVs). A common approach involves designing testing scenarios based on prior knowledge of CAVs (e.g., surrogate models), conducting tests in these scenarios, and subsequently evaluating CAVs' safety performances. However, substantial differences between CAVs and the prior knowledge can significantly diminish the evaluation efficiency. In response to this issue, existing studies predominantly concentrate on the adaptive design of testing scenarios during the CAV testing process. Yet, these methods have limitations in their applicability to high-dimensional scenarios. To overcome this challenge, we develop an adaptive testing environment that bolsters evaluation robustness by incorporating multiple surrogate models and optimizing the combination coefficients of these surrogate models to enhance evaluation efficiency. We formulate the optimization problem as a regression task utilizing quadratic programming. To efficiently obtain the regression target via reinforcement learning, we propose the dense reinforcement learning method and devise a new adaptive policy with high sample efficiency. Essentially, our approach centers on learning the values of critical scenes displaying substantial surrogate-to-real gaps. The effectiveness of our method is validated in high-dimensional overtaking scenarios, demonstrating that our approach achieves notable evaluation efficiency.

We propose an adaptive training scheme for unsupervised medical image registration. Existing methods rely on image reconstruction as the primary supervision signal. However, nuisance variables (e.g. noise and covisibility), violation of the Lambertian assumption in physical waves (e.g. ultrasound), and inconsistent image acquisition can all cause a loss of correspondence between medical images. As the unsupervised learning scheme relies on intensity constancy between images to establish correspondence for reconstruction, this introduces spurious error residuals that are not modeled by the typical training objective. To mitigate this, we propose an adaptive framework that re-weights the error residuals with a correspondence scoring map during training, preventing the parametric displacement estimator from drifting away due to noisy gradients, which leads to performance degradation. To illustrate the versatility and effectiveness of our method, we tested our framework on three representative registration architectures across three medical image datasets along with other baselines. Our adaptive framework consistently outperforms other methods both quantitatively and qualitatively. Paired t-tests show that our improvements are statistically significant. Code available at: https://voldemort108x.github.io/AdaCS/.

Access to the right evidence does not guarantee that large language models (LLMs) will reason with it correctly. This gap between retrieval and reasoning is especially concerning in clinical settings, where outputs must align with structured protocols. We study this gap using Written Exposure Therapy (WET) guidelines as a testbed. In evaluating model responses to curated clinician-vetted questions, we find that errors persist even when authoritative passages are provided. To address this, we propose an evaluation framework that measures accuracy, consistency, and fidelity of reasoning. Our results highlight both the potential and the risks: retrieval-augmented generation (RAG) can constrain outputs, but safe deployment requires assessing reasoning as rigorously as retrieval.

Recovering causal relationships from data is an important problem. Using observational data, one can typically only recover causal graphs up to a Markov equivalence class and additional assumptions or interventional data are needed for complete recovery. In this work, under some standard assumptions, we study causal graph discovery via adaptive interventions with node-dependent interventional costs. For this setting, we show that no algorithm can achieve an approximation guarantee that is asymptotically better than linear in the number of vertices with respect to the verification number; a well-established benchmark for adaptive search algorithms. Motivated by this negative result, we define a new benchmark that captures the worst-case interventional cost for any search algorithm. Furthermore, with respect to this new benchmark, we provide adaptive search algorithms that achieve logarithmic approximations under various settings: atomic, bounded size interventions and generalized cost objectives.

Medical systematic reviews can be very costly and resource intensive. We explore how Large Language Models (LLMs) can support and be trained to perform literature screening when provided with a detailed set of selection criteria. Specifically, we instruction tune LLaMA and Guanaco models to perform abstract screening for medical systematic reviews. Our best model, Bio-SIEVE, outperforms both ChatGPT and trained traditional approaches, and generalises better across medical domains. However, there remains the challenge of adapting the model to safety-first scenarios. We also explore the impact of multi-task training with Bio-SIEVE-Multi, including tasks such as PICO extraction and exclusion reasoning, but find that it is unable to match single-task Bio-SIEVE's performance. We see Bio-SIEVE as an important step towards specialising LLMs for the biomedical systematic review process and explore its future developmental opportunities. We release our models, code and a list of DOIs to reconstruct our dataset for reproducibility.

A great deal of effort has been devoted to reducing the risk of spurious scientific discoveries, from the use of sophisticated validation techniques, to deep statistical methods for controlling the false discovery rate in multiple hypothesis testing. However, there is a fundamental disconnect between the theoretical results and the practice of data analysis: the theory of statistical inference assumes a fixed collection of hypotheses to be tested, or learning algorithms to be applied, selected non-adaptively before the data are gathered, whereas in practice data is shared and reused with hypotheses and new analyses being generated on the basis of data exploration and the outcomes of previous analyses. In this work we initiate a principled study of how to guarantee the validity of statistical inference in adaptive data analysis. As an instance of this problem, we propose and investigate the question of estimating the expectations of m adaptively chosen functions on an unknown distribution given n random samples. We show that, surprisingly, there is a way to estimate an exponential in n number of expectations accurately even if the functions are chosen adaptively. This gives an exponential improvement over standard empirical estimators that are limited to a linear number of estimates. Our result follows from a general technique that counter-intuitively involves actively perturbing and coordinating the estimates, using techniques developed for privacy preservation. We give additional applications of this technique to our question.

Reinforcement learning (RL) with rule-based rewards has demonstrated strong potential in enhancing the reasoning and generalization capabilities of vision-language models (VLMs) and large language models (LLMs), while reducing computational overhead. However, its application in medical imaging remains underexplored. Existing reinforcement fine-tuning (RFT) approaches in this domain primarily target closed-ended visual question answering (VQA), limiting their applicability to real-world clinical reasoning. In contrast, open-ended medical VQA better reflects clinical practice but has received limited attention. While some efforts have sought to unify both formats via semantically guided RL, we observe that model-based semantic rewards often suffer from reward collapse, where responses with significant semantic differences receive similar scores. To address this, we propose ARMed (Adaptive Reinforcement for Medical Reasoning), a novel RL framework for open-ended medical VQA. ARMed first incorporates domain knowledge through supervised fine-tuning (SFT) on chain-of-thought data, then applies reinforcement learning with textual correctness and adaptive semantic rewards to enhance reasoning quality. We evaluate ARMed on six challenging medical VQA benchmarks. Results show that ARMed consistently boosts both accuracy and generalization, achieving a 32.64% improvement on in-domain tasks and an 11.65% gain on out-of-domain benchmarks. These results highlight the critical role of reward discriminability in medical RL and the promise of semantically guided rewards for enabling robust and clinically meaningful multimodal reasoning.

Label efficiency has become an increasingly important objective in deep learning applications. Active learning aims to reduce the number of labeled examples needed to train deep networks, but the empirical performance of active learning algorithms can vary dramatically across datasets and applications. It is difficult to know in advance which active learning strategy will perform well or best in a given application. To address this, we propose the first adaptive algorithm selection strategy for deep active learning. For any unlabeled dataset, our (meta) algorithm TAILOR (Thompson ActIve Learning algORithm selection) iteratively and adaptively chooses among a set of candidate active learning algorithms. TAILOR uses novel reward functions aimed at gathering class-balanced examples. Extensive experiments in multi-class and multi-label applications demonstrate TAILOR's effectiveness in achieving accuracy comparable or better than that of the best of the candidate algorithms. Our implementation of TAILOR is open-sourced at https://github.com/jifanz/TAILOR.

Sampling is ubiquitous in machine learning methodologies. Due to the growth of large datasets and model complexity, we want to learn and adapt the sampling process while training a representation. Towards achieving this grand goal, a variety of sampling techniques have been proposed. However, most of them either use a fixed sampling scheme or adjust the sampling scheme based on simple heuristics. They cannot choose the best sample for model training in different stages. Inspired by "Think, Fast and Slow" (System 1 and System 2) in cognitive science, we propose a reward-guided sampling strategy called Adaptive Sample with Reward (ASR) to tackle this challenge. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first work utilizing reinforcement learning (RL) to address the sampling problem in representation learning. Our approach optimally adjusts the sampling process to achieve optimal performance. We explore geographical relationships among samples by distance-based sampling to maximize overall cumulative reward. We apply ASR to the long-standing sampling problems in similarity-based loss functions. Empirical results in information retrieval and clustering demonstrate ASR's superb performance across different datasets. We also discuss an engrossing phenomenon which we name as "ASR gravity well" in experiments.

Inevitable domain and task discrepancies in real-world scenarios can impair the generalization performance of the pre-trained deep models for medical data. Therefore, we audaciously propose that we should build a general-purpose medical AI system that can be seamlessly adapted to downstream domains/tasks. Since the domain/task adaption procedures usually involve additional labeling work for the target data, designing a data-efficient adaption algorithm is desired to save the cost of transferring the learned knowledge. Our recent work found that vision-language models (VLMs) are efficient learners with extraordinary cross-domain ability. Therefore, in this work, we further explore the possibility of leveraging pre-trained VLMs as medical foundation models for building general-purpose medical AI, where we thoroughly investigate three machine-learning paradigms, i.e., domain/task-specialized learning, joint learning, and continual learning, for training the VLMs and evaluate their generalization performance on cross-domain and cross-task test sets. To alleviate the catastrophic forgetting during sequential training, we employ rehearsal learning and receive a sharp boost in terms of generalization capability. In a nutshell, our empirical evidence suggests that continual learning may be a practical and efficient learning paradigm for the medical foundation model. And we hope researchers can use our empirical evidence as basement to further explore the path toward medical foundation model.

Medical language models (MLMs) have become pivotal in advancing medical natural language processing. However, prior models that rely on pre-training or supervised fine-tuning often exhibit low data efficiency and limited practicality in real-world clinical applications. While OpenAIs O1 highlights test-time scaling in mathematics, attempts to replicate this approach in medicine typically distill responses from GPT-series models to open-source models, focusing primarily on multiple-choice tasks. This strategy, though straightforward, neglects critical concerns like data privacy and realistic deployment in clinical settings. In this work, we present a deployable, small-scale medical language model, \mone, designed for long-chain reasoning in clinical tasks using a self-evolution paradigm. Starting with a seed dataset of around 8,000 instances spanning five domains and 16 datasets, we prompt a base policy model to perform Monte Carlo Tree Search (MCTS) to construct verifiable reasoning chains. Each reasoning step is assigned an evolution rollout value, allowing verified trajectories to train the policy model and the reward model. During inference, the policy model generates multiple responses, and the reward model selects the one with the highest reward score. Experiments on eleven evaluation datasets demonstrate that \mone outperforms prior open-source models by 2 points, with the addition of the reward model further boosting performance (sim13 points), surpassing GPT-4o-mini. Code and data are available at https://github.com/pixas/MedSSS.

We study the problem of using low computational cost to automate the choices of learners and hyperparameters for an ad-hoc training dataset and error metric, by conducting trials of different configurations on the given training data. We investigate the joint impact of multiple factors on both trial cost and model error, and propose several design guidelines. Following them, we build a fast and lightweight library FLAML which optimizes for low computational resource in finding accurate models. FLAML integrates several simple but effective search strategies into an adaptive system. It significantly outperforms top-ranked AutoML libraries on a large open source AutoML benchmark under equal, or sometimes orders of magnitude smaller budget constraints.

Large language models (LLMs) hold great promise in summarizing medical evidence. Most recent studies focus on the application of proprietary LLMs. Using proprietary LLMs introduces multiple risk factors, including a lack of transparency and vendor dependency. While open-source LLMs allow better transparency and customization, their performance falls short compared to proprietary ones. In this study, we investigated to what extent fine-tuning open-source LLMs can further improve their performance in summarizing medical evidence. Utilizing a benchmark dataset, MedReview, consisting of 8,161 pairs of systematic reviews and summaries, we fine-tuned three broadly-used, open-sourced LLMs, namely PRIMERA, LongT5, and Llama-2. Overall, the fine-tuned LLMs obtained an increase of 9.89 in ROUGE-L (95% confidence interval: 8.94-10.81), 13.21 in METEOR score (95% confidence interval: 12.05-14.37), and 15.82 in CHRF score (95% confidence interval: 13.89-16.44). The performance of fine-tuned LongT5 is close to GPT-3.5 with zero-shot settings. Furthermore, smaller fine-tuned models sometimes even demonstrated superior performance compared to larger zero-shot models. The above trends of improvement were also manifested in both human and GPT4-simulated evaluations. Our results can be applied to guide model selection for tasks demanding particular domain knowledge, such as medical evidence summarization.

Incentivizing the reasoning ability of Multimodal Large Language Models (MLLMs) is essential for medical applications to transparently analyze medical scans and provide reliable diagnosis. However, existing medical MLLMs rely solely on internal knowledge during reasoning, leading to hallucinated reasoning and factual inaccuracies when encountering cases beyond their training scope. Although recent Agentic Retrieval-Augmented Generation (RAG) methods elicit the medical model's proactive retrieval ability during reasoning, they are confined to unimodal LLMs, neglecting the crucial visual information during reasoning and retrieval. Consequently, we propose the first Multimodal Medical Reasoning-with-Retrieval framework, Med-RwR, which actively retrieves external knowledge by querying observed symptoms or domain-specific medical concepts during reasoning. Specifically, we design a two-stage reinforcement learning strategy with tailored rewards that stimulate the model to leverage both visual diagnostic findings and textual clinical information for effective retrieval. Building on this foundation, we further propose a Confidence-Driven Image Re-retrieval (CDIR) method for test-time scaling when low prediction confidence is detected. Evaluation on various public medical benchmarks demonstrates Med-RwR's significant improvements over baseline models, proving the effectiveness of enhancing reasoning capabilities with external knowledge integration. Furthermore, Med-RwR demonstrates remarkable generalizability to unfamiliar domains, evidenced by 8.8% performance gain on our proposed EchoCardiography Benchmark (ECBench), despite the scarcity of echocardiography data in the training corpus. Our data, model, and codes will be made publicly available at https://github.com/xmed-lab/Med-RwR.

We present a corpus of 5,000 richly annotated abstracts of medical articles describing clinical randomized controlled trials. Annotations include demarcations of text spans that describe the Patient population enrolled, the Interventions studied and to what they were Compared, and the Outcomes measured (the `PICO' elements). These spans are further annotated at a more granular level, e.g., individual interventions within them are marked and mapped onto a structured medical vocabulary. We acquired annotations from a diverse set of workers with varying levels of expertise and cost. We describe our data collection process and the corpus itself in detail. We then outline a set of challenging NLP tasks that would aid searching of the medical literature and the practice of evidence-based medicine.

Rare diseases present unique challenges in healthcare, often suffering from delayed diagnosis and fragmented information landscapes. The scarcity of reliable knowledge in these conditions poses a distinct challenge for Large Language Models (LLMs) in supporting clinical management and delivering precise patient information underscoring the need for focused training on these 'zebra' cases. We present Zebra-Llama, a specialized context-aware language model with high precision Retrieval Augmented Generation (RAG) capability, focusing on Ehlers-Danlos Syndrome (EDS) as our case study. EDS, affecting 1 in 5,000 individuals, exemplifies the complexities of rare diseases with its diverse symptoms, multiple subtypes, and evolving diagnostic criteria. By implementing a novel context-aware fine-tuning methodology trained on questions derived from medical literature, patient experiences, and clinical resources, along with expertly curated responses, Zebra-Llama demonstrates unprecedented capabilities in handling EDS-related queries. On a test set of real-world questions collected from EDS patients and clinicians, medical experts evaluated the responses generated by both models, revealing Zebra-Llama's substantial improvements over base model (Llama 3.1-8B-Instruct) in thoroughness (77.5% vs. 70.1%), accuracy (83.0% vs. 78.8%), clarity (74.7% vs. 72.0%) and citation reliability (70.6% vs. 52.3%). Released as an open-source resource, Zebra-Llama not only provides more accessible and reliable EDS information but also establishes a framework for developing specialized AI solutions for other rare conditions. This work represents a crucial step towards democratizing expert-level knowledge in rare disease management, potentially transforming how healthcare providers and patients navigate the complex landscape of rare diseases.

Multi-Agent Reinforcement Learning (MARL) has shown clear effectiveness in coordinating multiple agents across simulated benchmarks and constrained scenarios. However, its deployment in real-world multi-agent systems (MAS) remains limited, primarily due to the complex and dynamic nature of such environments. These challenges arise from multiple interacting sources of variability, including fluctuating agent populations, evolving task goals, and inconsistent execution conditions. Together, these factors demand that MARL algorithms remain effective under continuously changing system configurations and operational demands. To better capture and assess this capacity for adjustment, we introduce the concept of adaptability as a unified and practically grounded lens through which to evaluate the reliability of MARL algorithms under shifting conditions, broadly referring to any changes in the environment dynamics that may occur during learning or execution. Centred on the notion of adaptability, we propose a structured framework comprising three key dimensions: learning adaptability, policy adaptability, and scenario-driven adaptability. By adopting this adaptability perspective, we aim to support more principled assessments of MARL performance beyond narrowly defined benchmarks. Ultimately, this survey contributes to the development of algorithms that are better suited for deployment in dynamic, real-world multi-agent systems.

The rapid advancements in large language models (LLMs) have demonstrated their potential to accelerate scientific discovery, particularly in automating the process of research ideation. LLM-based systems have shown promise in generating hypotheses and research ideas. However, current approaches predominantly rely on prompting-based pre-trained models, limiting their ability to optimize generated content effectively. Moreover, they also lack the capability to deal with the complex interdependence and inherent restrictions among novelty, feasibility, and effectiveness, which remains challenging due to the inherent trade-offs among these dimensions, such as the innovation-feasibility conflict. To address these limitations, we for the first time propose fine-tuning LLMs to be better idea proposers and introduce a novel framework that employs a two-stage approach combining Supervised Fine-Tuning (SFT) and controllable Reinforcement Learning (RL). In the SFT stage, the model learns foundational patterns from pairs of research papers and follow-up ideas. In the RL stage, multi-dimensional reward modeling, guided by fine-grained feedback, evaluates and optimizes the generated ideas across key metrics. Dimensional controllers enable dynamic adjustment of generation, while a sentence-level decoder ensures context-aware emphasis during inference. Our framework provides a balanced approach to research ideation, achieving high-quality outcomes by dynamically navigating the trade-offs among novelty, feasibility, and effectiveness.

Large Language Model (LLM)-based agents have demonstrated strong capabilities across a wide range of tasks, and their application in the medical domain holds particular promise due to the demand for high generalizability and reliance on interdisciplinary knowledge. However, existing medical agent systems often rely on static, manually crafted workflows that lack the flexibility to accommodate diverse diagnostic requirements and adapt to emerging clinical scenarios. Motivated by the success of automated machine learning (AutoML), this paper introduces a novel framework for the automated design of medical agent architectures. Specifically, we define a hierarchical and expressive agent search space that enables dynamic workflow adaptation through structured modifications at the node, structural, and framework levels. Our framework conceptualizes medical agents as graph-based architectures composed of diverse, functional node types and supports iterative self-improvement guided by diagnostic feedback. Experimental results on skin disease diagnosis tasks demonstrate that the proposed method effectively evolves workflow structures and significantly enhances diagnostic accuracy over time. This work represents the first fully automated framework for medical agent architecture design and offers a scalable, adaptable foundation for deploying intelligent agents in real-world clinical environments.

Large language models (LLMs) are transforming the landscape of medicine, yet two fundamental challenges persist: keeping up with rapidly evolving medical knowledge and providing verifiable, evidence-grounded reasoning. Retrieval-augmented generation (RAG) has been widely adopted to address these limitations by supplementing model outputs with retrieved evidence. However, whether RAG reliably achieves these goals remains unclear. Here, we present the most comprehensive expert evaluation of RAG in medicine to date. Eighteen medical experts contributed a total of 80,502 annotations, assessing 800 model outputs generated by GPT-4o and Llama-3.1-8B across 200 real-world patient and USMLE-style queries. We systematically decomposed the RAG pipeline into three components: (i) evidence retrieval (relevance of retrieved passages), (ii) evidence selection (accuracy of evidence usage), and (iii) response generation (factuality and completeness of outputs). Contrary to expectation, standard RAG often degraded performance: only 22% of top-16 passages were relevant, evidence selection remained weak (precision 41-43%, recall 27-49%), and factuality and completeness dropped by up to 6% and 5%, respectively, compared with non-RAG variants. Retrieval and evidence selection remain key failure points for the model, contributing to the overall performance drop. We further show that simple yet effective strategies, including evidence filtering and query reformulation, substantially mitigate these issues, improving performance on MedMCQA and MedXpertQA by up to 12% and 8.2%, respectively. These findings call for re-examining RAG's role in medicine and highlight the importance of stage-aware evaluation and deliberate system design for reliable medical LLM applications.

Accurately predicting immunotherapy response in Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer (NSCLC) remains a critical unmet need. Existing radiomics and deep learning-based predictive models rely primarily on pre-treatment imaging to predict categorical response outcomes, limiting their ability to capture the complex morphological and textural transformations induced by immunotherapy. This study introduces ImmunoDiff, an anatomy-aware diffusion model designed to synthesize post-treatment CT scans from baseline imaging while incorporating clinically relevant constraints. The proposed framework integrates anatomical priors, specifically lobar and vascular structures, to enhance fidelity in CT synthesis. Additionally, we introduce a novel cbi-Adapter, a conditioning module that ensures pairwise-consistent multimodal integration of imaging and clinical data embeddings, to refine the generative process. Additionally, a clinical variable conditioning mechanism is introduced, leveraging demographic data, blood-based biomarkers, and PD-L1 expression to refine the generative process. Evaluations on an in-house NSCLC cohort treated with immune checkpoint inhibitors demonstrate a 21.24% improvement in balanced accuracy for response prediction and a 0.03 increase in c-index for survival prediction. Code will be released soon.

Low-Rank Adaptation (LoRA) has become a widely adopted technique for fine-tuning large-scale pre-trained models with minimal parameter updates. However, existing methods rely on fixed ranks or focus solely on either rank pruning or expansion, failing to adapt ranks dynamically to match the importance of different layers during training. In this work, we propose ElaLoRA, an adaptive low-rank adaptation framework that dynamically prunes and expands ranks based on gradient-derived importance scores. To the best of our knowledge, ElaLoRA is the first method that enables both rank pruning and expansion during fine-tuning. Experiments across multiple benchmarks demonstrate that ElaLoRA consistently outperforms existing PEFT methods across different parameter budgets. Furthermore, our studies validate that layers receiving higher rank allocations contribute more significantly to model performance, providing theoretical justification for our adaptive strategy. By introducing a principled and adaptive rank allocation mechanism, ElaLoRA offers a scalable and efficient fine-tuning solution, particularly suited for resource-constrained environments.

Data science plays a critical role in clinical research, but it requires professionals with expertise in coding and medical data analysis. Large language models (LLMs) have shown great potential in supporting medical tasks and performing well in general coding tests. However, these tests do not assess LLMs' ability to handle data science tasks in medicine, nor do they explore their practical utility in clinical research. To address this, we developed a dataset consisting of 293 real-world data science coding tasks, based on 39 published clinical studies, covering 128 tasks in Python and 165 tasks in R. This dataset simulates realistic clinical research scenarios using patient data. Our findings reveal that cutting-edge LLMs struggle to generate perfect solutions, frequently failing to follow input instructions, understand target data, and adhere to standard analysis practices. Consequently, LLMs are not yet ready to fully automate data science tasks. We benchmarked advanced adaptation methods and found two to be particularly effective: chain-of-thought prompting, which provides a step-by-step plan for data analysis, which led to a 60% improvement in code accuracy; and self-reflection, enabling LLMs to iteratively refine their code, yielding a 38% accuracy improvement. Building on these insights, we developed a platform that integrates LLMs into the data science workflow for medical professionals. In a user study with five medical doctors, we found that while LLMs cannot fully automate coding tasks, they significantly streamline the programming process. We found that 80% of their submitted code solutions were incorporated from LLM-generated code, with up to 96% reuse in some cases. Our analysis highlights the potential of LLMs, when integrated into expert workflows, to enhance data science efficiency in clinical research.

Multimodal large language models (MLLMs) hold significant potential in medical applications, including disease diagnosis and clinical decision-making. However, these tasks require highly accurate, context-sensitive, and professionally aligned responses, making reliable reward models and judges critical. Despite their importance, medical reward models (MRMs) and judges remain underexplored, with no dedicated benchmarks addressing clinical requirements. Existing benchmarks focus on general MLLM capabilities or evaluate models as solvers, neglecting essential evaluation dimensions like diagnostic accuracy and clinical relevance. To address this, we introduce Med-RewardBench, the first benchmark specifically designed to evaluate MRMs and judges in medical scenarios. Med-RewardBench features a multimodal dataset spanning 13 organ systems and 8 clinical departments, with 1,026 expert-annotated cases. A rigorous three-step process ensures high-quality evaluation data across six clinically critical dimensions. We evaluate 32 state-of-the-art MLLMs, including open-source, proprietary, and medical-specific models, revealing substantial challenges in aligning outputs with expert judgment. Additionally, we develop baseline models that demonstrate substantial performance improvements through fine-tuning.

Randomized controlled trials (RCTs) are considered the gold standard for estimating the average treatment effect (ATE) of interventions. One use of RCTs is to study the causes of global poverty -- a subject explicitly cited in the 2019 Nobel Memorial Prize awarded to Duflo, Banerjee, and Kremer "for their experimental approach to alleviating global poverty." Because the ATE is a population summary, anti-poverty experiments often seek to unpack the effect variation around the ATE by conditioning (CATE) on tabular variables such as age and ethnicity that were measured during the RCT data collection. Although such variables are key to unpacking CATE, using only such variables may fail to capture historical, geographical, or neighborhood-specific contributors to effect variation, as tabular RCT data are often only observed near the time of the experiment. In global poverty research, when the location of the experiment units is approximately known, satellite imagery can provide a window into such factors important for understanding heterogeneity. However, there is no method that specifically enables applied researchers to analyze CATE from images. In this paper, using a deep probabilistic modeling framework, we develop such a method that estimates latent clusters of images by identifying images with similar treatment effects distributions. Our interpretable image CATE model also includes a sensitivity factor that quantifies the importance of image segments contributing to the effect cluster prediction. We compare the proposed methods against alternatives in simulation; also, we show how the model works in an actual RCT, estimating the effects of an anti-poverty intervention in northern Uganda and obtaining a posterior predictive distribution over effects for the rest of the country where no experimental data was collected. We make all models available in open-source software.

Large language models (LLMs) in psychological counseling have attracted increasing attention. However, existing approaches often lack emotional understanding, adaptive strategies, and the use of therapeutic methods across multiple sessions with long-term memory, leaving them far from real clinical practice. To address these critical gaps, we introduce TheraMind, a strategic and adaptive agent for longitudinal psychological counseling. The cornerstone of TheraMind is a novel dual-loop architecture that decouples the complex counseling process into an Intra-Session Loop for tactical dialogue management and a Cross-Session Loop for strategic therapeutic planning. The Intra-Session Loop perceives the patient's emotional state to dynamically select response strategies while leveraging cross-session memory to ensure continuity. Crucially, the Cross-Session Loop empowers the agent with long-term adaptability by evaluating the efficacy of the applied therapy after each session and adjusting the method for subsequent interactions. We validate our approach in a high-fidelity simulation environment grounded in real clinical cases. Extensive evaluations show that TheraMind outperforms other methods, especially on multi-session metrics like Coherence, Flexibility, and Therapeutic Attunement, validating the effectiveness of its dual-loop design in emulating strategic, adaptive, and longitudinal therapeutic behavior. The code is publicly available at https://0mwwm0.github.io/TheraMind/.

Multi-Modal Large Language Models (MLLMs), despite being successful, exhibit limited generality and often fall short when compared to specialized models. Recently, LLM-based agents have been developed to address these challenges by selecting appropriate specialized models as tools based on user inputs. However, such advancements have not been extensively explored within the medical domain. To bridge this gap, this paper introduces the first agent explicitly designed for the medical field, named Multi-modal Medical Agent (MMedAgent). We curate an instruction-tuning dataset comprising six medical tools solving seven tasks across five modalities, enabling the agent to choose the most suitable tools for a given task. Comprehensive experiments demonstrate that MMedAgent achieves superior performance across a variety of medical tasks compared to state-of-the-art open-source methods and even the closed-source model, GPT-4o. Furthermore, MMedAgent exhibits efficiency in updating and integrating new medical tools. Codes and models are all available.

Retrieval-augmented generation (RAG) and long-context language models (LCLMs) both address context limitations of LLMs in open-domain question answering (QA). However, optimal external context to retrieve remains an open problem: fixing the retrieval size risks either wasting tokens or omitting key evidence. Existing adaptive methods like Self-RAG and Self-Route rely on iterative LLM prompting and perform well on factoid QA, but struggle with aggregation QA, where the optimal context size is both unknown and variable. We present Adaptive-k retrieval, a simple and effective single-pass method that adaptively selects the number of passages based on the distribution of the similarity scores between the query and the candidate passages. It does not require model fine-tuning, extra LLM inferences or changes to existing retriever-reader pipelines. On both factoid and aggregation QA benchmarks, Adaptive-k matches or outperforms fixed-k baselines while using up to 10x fewer tokens than full-context input, yet still retrieves 70% of relevant passages. It improves accuracy across five LCLMs and two embedding models, highlighting that dynamically adjusting context size leads to more efficient and accurate QA.

Personalized treatment effect estimates are often of interest in high-stakes applications -- thus, before deploying a model estimating such effects in practice, one needs to be sure that the best candidate from the ever-growing machine learning toolbox for this task was chosen. Unfortunately, due to the absence of counterfactual information in practice, it is usually not possible to rely on standard validation metrics for doing so, leading to a well-known model selection dilemma in the treatment effect estimation literature. While some solutions have recently been investigated, systematic understanding of the strengths and weaknesses of different model selection criteria is still lacking. In this paper, instead of attempting to declare a global `winner', we therefore empirically investigate success- and failure modes of different selection criteria. We highlight that there is a complex interplay between selection strategies, candidate estimators and the data used for comparing them, and provide interesting insights into the relative (dis)advantages of different criteria alongside desiderata for the design of further illuminating empirical studies in this context.

Building upon our previous investigations of O1 replication (Part 1: Journey Learning [Qin et al., 2024] and Part 2: Distillation [Huang et al., 2024]), this work explores the potential of inference-time scaling in large language models (LLMs) for medical reasoning tasks, ranging from diagnostic decision-making to treatment planning. Through extensive experiments on medical benchmarks of varying complexity (MedQA, Medbullets, and JAMA Clinical Challenges), our investigation reveals several key insights: (1) Increasing inference time does lead to improved performance. With a modest training set of 500 samples, our model yields substantial performance improvements of 6%-11%. (2) Task complexity directly correlates with the required length of reasoning chains, confirming the necessity of extended thought processes for challenging problems. (3) The differential diagnoses generated by our model adhere to the principles of the hypothetico-deductive method, producing a list of potential conditions that may explain a patient's symptoms and systematically narrowing these possibilities by evaluating the evidence. These findings demonstrate the promising synergy between inference-time scaling and journey learning in advancing LLMs' real-world clinical reasoning capabilities.

We study contextual combinatorial bandits with probabilistically triggered arms (C^2MAB-T) under a variety of smoothness conditions that capture a wide range of applications, such as contextual cascading bandits and contextual influence maximization bandits. Under the triggering probability modulated (TPM) condition, we devise the C^2-UCB-T algorithm and propose a novel analysis that achieves an O(dKT) regret bound, removing a potentially exponentially large factor O(1/p_{min}), where d is the dimension of contexts, p_{min} is the minimum positive probability that any arm can be triggered, and batch-size K is the maximum number of arms that can be triggered per round. Under the variance modulated (VM) or triggering probability and variance modulated (TPVM) conditions, we propose a new variance-adaptive algorithm VAC^2-UCB and derive a regret bound O(dT), which is independent of the batch-size K. As a valuable by-product, our analysis technique and variance-adaptive algorithm can be applied to the CMAB-T and C^2MAB setting, improving existing results there as well. We also include experiments that demonstrate the improved performance of our algorithms compared with benchmark algorithms on synthetic and real-world datasets.

High-throughput drug screening -- using cell imaging or gene expression measurements as readouts of drug effect -- is a critical tool in biotechnology to assess and understand the relationship between the chemical structure and biological activity of a drug. Since large-scale screens have to be divided into multiple experiments, a key difficulty is dealing with batch effects, which can introduce systematic errors and non-biological associations in the data. We propose InfoCORE, an Information maximization approach for COnfounder REmoval, to effectively deal with batch effects and obtain refined molecular representations. InfoCORE establishes a variational lower bound on the conditional mutual information of the latent representations given a batch identifier. It adaptively reweighs samples to equalize their implied batch distribution. Extensive experiments on drug screening data reveal InfoCORE's superior performance in a multitude of tasks including molecular property prediction and molecule-phenotype retrieval. Additionally, we show results for how InfoCORE offers a versatile framework and resolves general distribution shifts and issues of data fairness by minimizing correlation with spurious features or removing sensitive attributes. The code is available at https://github.com/uhlerlab/InfoCORE.

Temporally dense single-person "small data" have become widely available thanks to mobile apps and wearable sensors. Many caregivers and self-trackers want to use these data to help a specific person change their behavior to achieve desired health outcomes. Ideally, this involves discerning possible causes from correlations using that person's own observational time series data. In this paper, we estimate within-individual average treatment effects of physical activity on sleep duration, and vice-versa. We introduce the model twin randomization (MoTR; "motor") method for analyzing an individual's intensive longitudinal data. Formally, MoTR is an application of the g-formula (i.e., standardization, back-door adjustment) under serial interference. It estimates stable recurring effects, as is done in n-of-1 trials and single case experimental designs. We compare our approach to standard methods (with possible confounding) to show how to use causal inference to make better personalized recommendations for health behavior change, and analyze 222 days of Fitbit sleep and steps data for one of the authors.

Reasoning large language models (LLMs) excel in complex tasks, which has drawn significant attention to reinforcement learning (RL) for LLMs. However, existing approaches allocate an equal number of rollouts to all questions during the RL process, which is inefficient. This inefficiency stems from the fact that training on simple questions yields limited gains, whereas more rollouts are needed for challenging questions to sample correct answers. Furthermore, while RL improves response precision, it limits the model's exploration ability, potentially resulting in a performance cap below that of the base model prior to RL. To address these issues, we propose a mechanism for dynamically allocating rollout budgets based on the difficulty of the problems, enabling more efficient RL training. Additionally, we introduce an adaptive dynamic temperature adjustment strategy to maintain the entropy at a stable level, thereby encouraging sufficient exploration. This enables LLMs to improve response precision while preserving their exploratory ability to uncover potential correct pathways. The code and data is available on: https://github.com/LiaoMengqi/E3-RL4LLMs

Therapeutic development is a costly and high-risk endeavor that is often plagued by high failure rates. To address this, we introduce TxGemma, a suite of efficient, generalist large language models (LLMs) capable of therapeutic property prediction as well as interactive reasoning and explainability. Unlike task-specific models, TxGemma synthesizes information from diverse sources, enabling broad application across the therapeutic development pipeline. The suite includes 2B, 9B, and 27B parameter models, fine-tuned from Gemma-2 on a comprehensive dataset of small molecules, proteins, nucleic acids, diseases, and cell lines. Across 66 therapeutic development tasks, TxGemma achieved superior or comparable performance to the state-of-the-art generalist model on 64 (superior on 45), and against state-of-the-art specialist models on 50 (superior on 26). Fine-tuning TxGemma models on therapeutic downstream tasks, such as clinical trial adverse event prediction, requires less training data than fine-tuning base LLMs, making TxGemma suitable for data-limited applications. Beyond these predictive capabilities, TxGemma features conversational models that bridge the gap between general LLMs and specialized property predictors. These allow scientists to interact in natural language, provide mechanistic reasoning for predictions based on molecular structure, and engage in scientific discussions. Building on this, we further introduce Agentic-Tx, a generalist therapeutic agentic system powered by Gemini 2.5 that reasons, acts, manages diverse workflows, and acquires external domain knowledge. Agentic-Tx surpasses prior leading models on the Humanity's Last Exam benchmark (Chemistry & Biology) with 52.3% relative improvement over o3-mini (high) and 26.7% over o3-mini (high) on GPQA (Chemistry) and excels with improvements of 6.3% (ChemBench-Preference) and 2.4% (ChemBench-Mini) over o3-mini (high).

Large language models (LLMs) represent a transformative class of AI tools capable of revolutionizing various aspects of healthcare by generating human-like responses across diverse contexts and adapting to novel tasks following human instructions. Their potential application spans a broad range of medical tasks, such as clinical documentation, matching patients to clinical trials, and answering medical questions. In this primer paper, we propose an actionable guideline to help healthcare professionals more efficiently utilize LLMs in their work, along with a set of best practices. This approach consists of several main phases, including formulating the task, choosing LLMs, prompt engineering, fine-tuning, and deployment. We start with the discussion of critical considerations in identifying healthcare tasks that align with the core capabilities of LLMs and selecting models based on the selected task and data, performance requirements, and model interface. We then review the strategies, such as prompt engineering and fine-tuning, to adapt standard LLMs to specialized medical tasks. Deployment considerations, including regulatory compliance, ethical guidelines, and continuous monitoring for fairness and bias, are also discussed. By providing a structured step-by-step methodology, this tutorial aims to equip healthcare professionals with the tools necessary to effectively integrate LLMs into clinical practice, ensuring that these powerful technologies are applied in a safe, reliable, and impactful manner.

Humans naturally adapt to diverse environments by learning underlying rules across worlds with different dynamics, observations, and reward structures. In contrast, existing agents typically demonstrate improvements via self-evolving within a single domain, implicitly assuming a fixed environment distribution. Cross-environment learning has remained largely unmeasured: there is no standard collection of controllable, heterogeneous environments, nor a unified way to represent how agents learn. We address these gaps in two steps. First, we propose AutoEnv, an automated framework that treats environments as factorizable distributions over transitions, observations, and rewards, enabling low-cost (4.12 USD on average) generation of heterogeneous worlds. Using AutoEnv, we construct AutoEnv-36, a dataset of 36 environments with 358 validated levels, on which seven language models achieve 12-49% normalized reward, demonstrating the challenge of AutoEnv-36. Second, we formalize agent learning as a component-centric process driven by three stages of Selection, Optimization, and Evaluation applied to an improvable agent component. Using this formulation, we design eight learning methods and evaluate them on AutoEnv-36. Empirically, the gain of any single learning method quickly decrease as the number of environments increases, revealing that fixed learning methods do not scale across heterogeneous environments. Environment-adaptive selection of learning methods substantially improves performance but exhibits diminishing returns as the method space expands. These results highlight both the necessity and the current limitations of agent learning for scalable cross-environment generalization, and position AutoEnv and AutoEnv-36 as a testbed for studying cross-environment agent learning. The code is avaiable at https://github.com/FoundationAgents/AutoEnv.

Purpose: Magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) to visualize anatomical motion is becoming increasingly important when treating cancer patients with radiotherapy. Hybrid MRI-linear accelerator (MRI-linac) systems allow real-time motion management during irradiation. This paper presents a multi-institutional real-time MRI time series dataset from different MRI-linac vendors. The dataset is designed to support developing and evaluating real-time tumor localization (tracking) algorithms for MRI-guided radiotherapy within the TrackRAD2025 challenge (https://trackrad2025.grand-challenge.org/). Acquisition and validation methods: The dataset consists of sagittal 2D cine MRIs in 585 patients from six centers (3 Dutch, 1 German, 1 Australian, and 1 Chinese). Tumors in the thorax, abdomen, and pelvis acquired on two commercially available MRI-linacs (0.35 T and 1.5 T) were included. For 108 cases, irradiation targets or tracking surrogates were manually segmented on each temporal frame. The dataset was randomly split into a public training set of 527 cases (477 unlabeled and 50 labeled) and a private testing set of 58 cases (all labeled). Data Format and Usage Notes: The data is publicly available under the TrackRAD2025 collection: https://doi.org/10.57967/hf/4539. Both the images and segmentations for each patient are available in metadata format. Potential Applications: This novel clinical dataset will enable the development and evaluation of real-time tumor localization algorithms for MRI-guided radiotherapy. By enabling more accurate motion management and adaptive treatment strategies, this dataset has the potential to advance the field of radiotherapy significantly.

In this work, we introduce MedAgentSim, an open-source simulated clinical environment with doctor, patient, and measurement agents designed to evaluate and enhance LLM performance in dynamic diagnostic settings. Unlike prior approaches, our framework requires doctor agents to actively engage with patients through multi-turn conversations, requesting relevant medical examinations (e.g., temperature, blood pressure, ECG) and imaging results (e.g., MRI, X-ray) from a measurement agent to mimic the real-world diagnostic process. Additionally, we incorporate self improvement mechanisms that allow models to iteratively refine their diagnostic strategies. We enhance LLM performance in our simulated setting by integrating multi-agent discussions, chain-of-thought reasoning, and experience-based knowledge retrieval, facilitating progressive learning as doctor agents interact with more patients. We also introduce an evaluation benchmark for assessing the LLM's ability to engage in dynamic, context-aware diagnostic interactions. While MedAgentSim is fully automated, it also supports a user-controlled mode, enabling human interaction with either the doctor or patient agent. Comprehensive evaluations in various simulated diagnostic scenarios demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach. Our code, simulation tool, and benchmark are available at https://medagentsim.netlify.app/.

Several recent works seek to develop foundation models specifically for medical applications, adapting general-purpose large language models (LLMs) and vision-language models (VLMs) via continued pretraining on publicly available biomedical corpora. These works typically claim that such domain-adaptive pretraining (DAPT) improves performance on downstream medical tasks, such as answering medical licensing exam questions. In this paper, we compare ten public "medical" LLMs and two VLMs against their corresponding base models, arriving at a different conclusion: all medical VLMs and nearly all medical LLMs fail to consistently improve over their base models in the zero-/few-shot prompting and supervised fine-tuning regimes for medical question-answering (QA). For instance, across all tasks and model pairs we consider in the 3-shot setting, medical LLMs only outperform their base models in 22.7% of cases, reach a (statistical) tie in 36.8% of cases, and are significantly worse than their base models in the remaining 40.5% of cases. Our conclusions are based on (i) comparing each medical model head-to-head, directly against the corresponding base model; (ii) optimizing the prompts for each model separately in zero-/few-shot prompting; and (iii) accounting for statistical uncertainty in comparisons. While these basic practices are not consistently adopted in the literature, our ablations show that they substantially impact conclusions. Meanwhile, we find that after fine-tuning on specific QA tasks, medical LLMs can show performance improvements, but the benefits do not carry over to tasks based on clinical notes. Our findings suggest that state-of-the-art general-domain models may already exhibit strong medical knowledge and reasoning capabilities, and offer recommendations to strengthen the conclusions of future studies.

Estimating the impact of continuous treatment variables (e.g., dosage amount) on binary outcomes presents significant challenges in modeling and estimation because many existing approaches make strong assumptions that do not hold for certain continuous treatment variables. For instance, traditional logistic regression makes strong linearity assumptions that do not hold for continuous treatment variables like time of initiation. In this work, we propose a semiparametric regression framework that decomposes effects into two interpretable components: a prognostic score that captures baseline outcome risk based on a combination of clinical, genetic, and sociodemographic features, and a treatment-interaction score that flexibly models the optimal treatment level via a nonparametric link function. By connecting these two parametric scores with Nadaraya-Watson regression, our approach is both interpretable and flexible. The potential of our approach is demonstrated through numerical simulations that show empirical estimation convergence. We conclude by applying our approach to a real-world case study using the International Warfarin Pharmacogenomics Consortium (IWPC) dataset to show our approach's clinical utility by deriving personalized warfarin dosing recommendations that integrate both genetic and clinical data, providing insights towards enhancing patient safety and therapeutic efficacy in anticoagulation therapy.

Large language models (LLMs) have demonstrated strong reasoning abilities in mathematical tasks, often enhanced through reinforcement learning (RL). However, RL-trained models frequently produce unnecessarily long reasoning traces -- even for simple queries -- leading to increased inference costs and latency. While recent approaches attempt to control verbosity by adding length penalties to the reward function, these methods rely on fixed penalty terms that are hard to tune and cannot adapt as the model's reasoning capability evolves, limiting their effectiveness. In this work, we propose an adaptive reward-shaping method that enables LLMs to "think fast and right" -- producing concise outputs without sacrificing correctness. Our method dynamically adjusts the reward trade-off between accuracy and response length based on model performance: when accuracy is high, the length penalty increases to encourage faster length reduction; when accuracy drops, the penalty is relaxed to preserve correctness. This adaptive reward accelerates early-stage length reduction while avoiding over-compression in later stages. Experiments across multiple datasets show that our approach consistently and dramatically reduces reasoning length while largely maintaining accuracy, offering a new direction for cost-efficient adaptive reasoning in large-scale language models.

Retinal imaging has emerged as a powerful, non-invasive modality for detecting and quantifying biomarkers of systemic diseases-ranging from diabetes and hypertension to Alzheimer's disease and cardiovascular disorders but current insights remain dispersed across platforms and specialties. Recent technological advances in optical coherence tomography (OCT/OCTA) and adaptive optics (AO) now deliver ultra-high-resolution scans (down to 5 {\mu}m ) with superior contrast and spatial integration, allowing early identification of microvascular abnormalities and neurodegenerative changes. At the same time, AI-driven and machine learning (ML) algorithms have revolutionized the analysis of large-scale retinal datasets, increasing sensitivity and specificity; for example, deep learning models achieve > 90 \% sensitivity for diabetic retinopathy and AUC = 0.89 for the prediction of cardiovascular risk from fundus photographs. The proliferation of mobile health technologies and telemedicine platforms further extends access, reduces costs, and facilitates community-based screening and longitudinal monitoring. Despite these breakthroughs, translation into routine practice is hindered by heterogeneous imaging protocols, limited external validation of AI models, and integration challenges within clinical workflows. In this review, we systematically synthesize the latest OCT/OCT and AO developments, AI/ML approaches, and mHealth/Tele-ophthalmology initiatives and quantify their diagnostic performance across disease domains. Finally, we propose a roadmap for multicenter protocol standardization, prospective validation trials, and seamless incorporation of retinal screening into primary and specialty care pathways-paving the way for precision prevention, early intervention, and ongoing treatment of life-threatening systemic diseases.

Several recent works seek to develop foundation models specifically for medical applications, adapting general-purpose large language models (LLMs) and vision-language models (VLMs) via continued pretraining on publicly available biomedical corpora. These works typically claim that such domain-adaptive pretraining (DAPT) improves performance on downstream medical tasks, such as answering medical licensing exam questions. In this paper, we compare seven public "medical" LLMs and two VLMs against their corresponding base models, arriving at a different conclusion: all medical VLMs and nearly all medical LLMs fail to consistently improve over their base models in the zero-/few-shot prompting regime for medical question-answering (QA) tasks. For instance, across the tasks and model pairs we consider in the 3-shot setting, medical LLMs only outperform their base models in 12.1% of cases, reach a (statistical) tie in 49.8% of cases, and are significantly worse than their base models in the remaining 38.2% of cases. Our conclusions are based on (i) comparing each medical model head-to-head, directly against the corresponding base model; (ii) optimizing the prompts for each model separately; and (iii) accounting for statistical uncertainty in comparisons. While these basic practices are not consistently adopted in the literature, our ablations show that they substantially impact conclusions. Our findings suggest that state-of-the-art general-domain models may already exhibit strong medical knowledge and reasoning capabilities, and offer recommendations to strengthen the conclusions of future studies.

Fast changing states or volatile environments pose a significant challenge to online optimization, which needs to perform rapid adaptation under limited observation. In this paper, we give query and regret optimal bandit algorithms under the strict notion of strongly adaptive regret, which measures the maximum regret over any contiguous interval I. Due to its worst-case nature, there is an almost-linear Omega(|I|^{1-epsilon}) regret lower bound, when only one query per round is allowed [Daniely el al, ICML 2015]. Surprisingly, with just two queries per round, we give Strongly Adaptive Bandit Learner (StABL) that achieves O(n|I|) adaptive regret for multi-armed bandits with n arms. The bound is tight and cannot be improved in general. Our algorithm leverages a multiplicative update scheme of varying stepsizes and a carefully chosen observation distribution to control the variance. Furthermore, we extend our results and provide optimal algorithms in the bandit convex optimization setting. Finally, we empirically demonstrate the superior performance of our algorithms under volatile environments and for downstream tasks, such as algorithm selection for hyperparameter optimization.

Recent breakthroughs in large language models (LLMs) offer unprecedented natural language understanding and generation capabilities. However, existing surveys on LLMs in biomedicine often focus on specific applications or model architectures, lacking a comprehensive analysis that integrates the latest advancements across various biomedical domains. This review, based on an analysis of 484 publications sourced from databases including PubMed, Web of Science, and arXiv, provides an in-depth examination of the current landscape, applications, challenges, and prospects of LLMs in biomedicine, distinguishing itself by focusing on the practical implications of these models in real-world biomedical contexts. Firstly, we explore the capabilities of LLMs in zero-shot learning across a broad spectrum of biomedical tasks, including diagnostic assistance, drug discovery, and personalized medicine, among others, with insights drawn from 137 key studies. Then, we discuss adaptation strategies of LLMs, including fine-tuning methods for both uni-modal and multi-modal LLMs to enhance their performance in specialized biomedical contexts where zero-shot fails to achieve, such as medical question answering and efficient processing of biomedical literature. Finally, we discuss the challenges that LLMs face in the biomedicine domain including data privacy concerns, limited model interpretability, issues with dataset quality, and ethics due to the sensitive nature of biomedical data, the need for highly reliable model outputs, and the ethical implications of deploying AI in healthcare. To address these challenges, we also identify future research directions of LLM in biomedicine including federated learning methods to preserve data privacy and integrating explainable AI methodologies to enhance the transparency of LLMs.

Continual learning is an emerging subject in machine learning that aims to solve multiple tasks presented sequentially to the learner without forgetting previously learned tasks. Recently, many deep learning based approaches have been proposed for continual learning, however the mathematical foundations behind existing continual learning methods remain underdeveloped. On the other hand, adaptive filtering is a classic subject in signal processing with a rich history of mathematically principled methods. However, its role in understanding the foundations of continual learning has been underappreciated. In this tutorial, we review the basic principles behind both continual learning and adaptive filtering, and present a comparative analysis that highlights multiple connections between them. These connections allow us to enhance the mathematical foundations of continual learning based on existing results for adaptive filtering, extend adaptive filtering insights using existing continual learning methods, and discuss a few research directions for continual learning suggested by the historical developments in adaptive filtering.

Users typically engage with LLMs interactively, yet most existing benchmarks evaluate them in a static, single-turn format, posing reliability concerns in interactive scenarios. We identify a key obstacle towards reliability: LLMs are trained to answer any question, even with incomplete context or insufficient knowledge. In this paper, we propose to change the static paradigm to an interactive one, develop systems that proactively ask questions to gather more information and respond reliably, and introduce an benchmark - MediQ - to evaluate question-asking ability in LLMs. MediQ simulates clinical interactions consisting of a Patient System and an adaptive Expert System; with potentially incomplete initial information, the Expert refrains from making diagnostic decisions when unconfident, and instead elicits missing details via follow-up questions. We provide a pipeline to convert single-turn medical benchmarks into an interactive format. Our results show that directly prompting state-of-the-art LLMs to ask questions degrades performance, indicating that adapting LLMs to proactive information-seeking settings is nontrivial. We experiment with abstention strategies to better estimate model confidence and decide when to ask questions, improving diagnostic accuracy by 22.3%; however, performance still lags compared to an (unrealistic in practice) upper bound with complete information upfront. Further analyses show improved interactive performance with filtering irrelevant contexts and reformatting conversations. Overall, we introduce a novel problem towards LLM reliability, an interactive MediQ benchmark and a novel question-asking system, and highlight directions to extend LLMs' information-seeking abilities in critical domains.

The integration of large language models (LLMs) into medical practice holds transformative potential, yet their real-world clinical utility remains limited by critical alignment challenges: (1) a disconnect between static evaluation benchmarks and dynamic clinical cognitive needs, (2) difficulties in adapting to evolving, multi-source medical standards, and (3) the inability of conventional reward models to capture nuanced, multi-dimensional medical quality criteria. To address these gaps, we propose MR-RML (Multidimensional Rubric-oriented Reward Model Learning) via GPRC (Geometric Projection Reference Constraints), a novel alignment framework that integrates medical standards into a structured "Dimensions-Scenarios-Disciplines" matrix to guide data generation and model optimization. MR-RML introduces three core innovations: (1) a "Dimensions-Scenarios-Disciplines" medical standard system that embeds domain standards into the full training pipeline; (2) an independent multi-dimensional reward model that decomposes evaluation criteria, shifting from real-time rubric-based scoring to internalized reward modeling for improved consistency and cost-efficiency; (3) geometric projection reference constraints that transform medical cognitive logic into mathematical regularization, aligning scoring gradients with clinical reasoning and enabling synthetic data-driven training. Through extensive evaluations on the authoritative medical benchmark Healthbench, our method yields substantial performance gains over the base LLM Qwen-32B (45% on the full subset and 85% on Hard subset, respectively). It achieves a SOTA among open-source LLMs with scores of 62.7 (full subset) and 44.7 (hard subset), while also outperforming the majority of closed-source models.

Recent developments in Large Language Model (LLM)-based agents have shown impressive capabilities spanning multiple domains, exemplified by deep research systems that demonstrate superior performance on complex information-seeking and synthesis tasks. While general-purpose deep research agents have shown impressive capabilities, they struggle significantly with medical domain challenges, as evidenced by leading proprietary systems achieving limited accuracy on complex medical benchmarks. The key limitations are: (1) the model lacks sufficient dense medical knowledge for clinical reasoning, and (2) the framework is constrained by the absence of specialized retrieval tools tailored for medical contexts.We present a medical deep research agent that addresses these challenges through two core innovations. First, we develop a novel data synthesis framework using medical knowledge graphs, extracting the longest chains from subgraphs around rare medical entities to generate complex multi-hop question-answer pairs. Second, we integrate a custom-built private medical retrieval engine alongside general-purpose tools, enabling accurate medical information synthesis. Our approach generates 2100+ diverse trajectories across 12 medical specialties, each averaging 4.2 tool interactions.Through a two-stage training paradigm combining supervised fine-tuning and online reinforcement learning with composite rewards, our MedResearcher-R1-32B model demonstrates exceptional performance, establishing new state-of-the-art results on medical benchmarks while maintaining competitive performance on general deep research tasks. Our work demonstrates that strategic domain-specific innovations in architecture, tool design, and training data construction can enable smaller open-source models to outperform much larger proprietary systems in specialized domains.

We present a novel contribution to Spanish clinical natural language processing by introducing the largest publicly available clinical corpus, ClinText-SP, along with a state-of-the-art clinical encoder language model, RigoBERTa Clinical. Our corpus was meticulously curated from diverse open sources, including clinical cases from medical journals and annotated corpora from shared tasks, providing a rich and diverse dataset that was previously difficult to access. RigoBERTa Clinical, developed through domain-adaptive pretraining on this comprehensive dataset, significantly outperforms existing models on multiple clinical NLP benchmarks. By publicly releasing both the dataset and the model, we aim to empower the research community with robust resources that can drive further advancements in clinical NLP and ultimately contribute to improved healthcare applications.

Testing and evaluation is a critical step in the development and deployment of connected and automated vehicles (CAVs). Due to the black-box property and various types of CAVs, how to test and evaluate CAVs adaptively remains a major challenge. Many approaches have been proposed to adaptively generate testing scenarios during the testing process. However, most existing approaches cannot be applied to complex scenarios, where the variables needed to define such scenarios are high dimensional. Towards filling this gap, the adaptive testing with sparse control variates method is proposed in this paper. Instead of adaptively generating testing scenarios, our approach evaluates CAVs' performances by adaptively utilizing the testing results. Specifically, each testing result is adjusted using multiple linear regression techniques based on control variates. As the regression coefficients can be adaptively optimized for the CAV under test, using the adjusted results can reduce the estimation variance, compared with using the testing results directly. To overcome the high dimensionality challenge, sparse control variates are utilized only for the critical variables of testing scenarios. To validate the proposed method, the high-dimensional overtaking scenarios are investigated, and the results demonstrate that our approach can further accelerate the evaluation process by about 30 times.

Tacrolimus is one of the cornerstone immunosuppressive drugs in most transplantation centers worldwide following solid organ transplantation. Therapeutic drug monitoring of tacrolimus is necessary in order to avoid rejection of the transplanted organ or severe side effects. However, finding the right dose for a given patient is challenging, even for experienced clinicians. Consequently, a tool that can accurately estimate the drug exposure for individual dose adaptions would be of high clinical value. In this work, we propose a new technique using machine learning to estimate the tacrolimus exposure in kidney transplant recipients. Our models achieve predictive errors that are at the same level as an established population pharmacokinetic model, but are faster to develop and require less knowledge about the pharmacokinetic properties of the drug.

Alzheimer's disease (AD) is a degenerative brain disease impairing a person's ability to perform day to day activities. The clinical manifestations of Alzheimer's disease are characterized by heterogeneity in age, disease span, progression rate, impairment of memory and cognitive abilities. Due to these variabilities, personalized care and treatment planning, as well as patient counseling about their individual progression is limited. Recent developments in machine learning to detect hidden patterns in complex, multi-dimensional datasets provides significant opportunities to address this critical need. In this work, we use unsupervised and supervised machine learning approaches for subtype identification and prediction. We apply machine learning methods to the extensive clinical observations available at the Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative (ADNI) data set to identify patient subtypes and to predict disease progression. Our analysis depicts the progression space for the Alzheimer's disease into low, moderate and high disease progression zones. The proposed work will enable early detection and characterization of distinct disease subtypes based on clinical heterogeneity. We anticipate that our models will enable patient counseling, clinical trial design, and ultimately individualized clinical care.

Self-consistency (SC), a widely used decoding strategy for chain-of-thought reasoning, shows significant gains across various multi-step reasoning tasks but comes with a high cost due to multiple sampling with the preset size. Its variants, Adaptive self-consistency (ASC) and Early-stopping self-consistency (ESC), dynamically adjust the number of samples based on the posterior distribution of a set of pre-samples, reducing the cost of SC with minimal impact on performance. Both methods, however, do not exploit the prior information about question difficulty. It often results in unnecessary repeated sampling for easy questions that could be accurately answered with just one attempt, wasting resources. To tackle this problem, we propose Difficulty-Adaptive Self-Consistency (DSC), which leverages the difficulty information from both prior and posterior perspectives to adaptively allocate inference resources, further reducing the cost of SC. To demonstrate the effectiveness of DSC, we conduct extensive experiments on three popular categories of reasoning tasks: arithmetic, commonsense and symbolic reasoning on six benchmarks. The empirical results show that DSC consistently surpasses the strong baseline ASC and ESC in terms of costs by a significant margin, while attaining comparable performances.

Survival analysis, or time-to-event modelling, is a classical statistical problem that has garnered a lot of interest for its practical use in epidemiology, demographics or actuarial sciences. Recent advances on the subject from the point of view of machine learning have been concerned with precise per-individual predictions instead of population studies, driven by the rise of individualized medicine. We introduce here a conditional normalizing flow based estimate of the time-to-event density as a way to model highly flexible and individualized conditional survival distributions. We use a novel hierarchical formulation of normalizing flows to enable efficient fitting of flexible conditional distributions without overfitting and show how the normalizing flow formulation can be efficiently adapted to the censored setting. We experimentally validate the proposed approach on a synthetic dataset as well as four open medical datasets and an example of a common financial problem.

Pretrained large language models (LLMs) are increasingly utilized across a wide range of natural language processing (NLP) tasks due to their impressive capabilities as few-shot learners. Recent techniques, such as chain-of-thought (CoT) prompting, have significantly advanced multi-step reasoning by introducing step-by-step decomposition, achieving state-of-the-art results on complex reasoning benchmarks. However, these approaches often rely on static prompting templates that do not adapt to task complexity or errors during the reasoning process. In this work, we introduce Adaptive Prompting, a dynamic and iterative framework designed to enhance reasoning by incorporating real-time adjustments to prompt structures and validation mechanisms.Experimental results demonstrate that Adaptive Prompting significantly improves performance on diverse reasoning benchmarks, including arithmetic reasoning (GSM8K, MultiArith), logical reasoning and commonsense tasks, achieving substantial accuracy gains compared to static prompting baselines. By integrating guided prompts, intermediate validation, and self-corrective steps, our approach enables smaller models to achieve competitive performance with larger counterparts, such as GPT-4, while maintaining computational efficiency. The framework achieves this without requiring fine-tuning or task-specific training data, highlighting the untapped potential of iterative reasoning methods.

Process reward models (PRMs) play a central role in guiding inference-time scaling algorithms for large language models (LLMs). However, we observe that even state-of-the-art PRMs can be poorly calibrated and often overestimate success probabilities. To address this, we present a calibration approach, performed via quantile regression, that adjusts PRM outputs to better align with true success probabilities. Leveraging these calibrated success estimates and their associated confidence bounds, we introduce an instance-adaptive scaling (IAS) framework that dynamically adjusts the inference budget based on the estimated likelihood that a partial reasoning trajectory will yield a correct final answer. Unlike conventional methods that allocate a fixed number of reasoning trajectories per query, this approach successfully adapts to each instance and reasoning step when using our calibrated PRMs. Experiments on mathematical reasoning benchmarks show that (i) our PRM calibration method successfully achieves small calibration error, outperforming the baseline methods, (ii) calibration is crucial for enabling effective adaptive scaling, and (iii) the proposed IAS strategy reduces inference costs while maintaining final answer accuracy, utilizing less compute on more confident problems as desired.

Recent progress in multimodal large language models (MLLMs) has demonstrated promising performance on medical benchmarks and in preliminary trials as clinical assistants. Yet, our pilot audit of diagnostic cases uncovers a critical failure mode: instability in early evidence interpretation precedes hallucination, creating branching reasoning trajectories that cascade into globally inconsistent conclusions. This highlights the need for clinical reasoning agents that constrain stochasticity and hallucination while producing auditable decision flows. We introduce MedMMV, a controllable multimodal multi-agent framework for reliable and verifiable clinical reasoning. MedMMV stabilizes reasoning through diversified short rollouts, grounds intermediate steps in a structured evidence graph under the supervision of a Hallucination Detector, and aggregates candidate paths with a Combined Uncertainty scorer. On six medical benchmarks, MedMMV improves accuracy by up to 12.7% and, more critically, demonstrates superior reliability. Blind physician evaluations confirm that MedMMV substantially increases reasoning truthfulness without sacrificing informational content. By controlling instability through a verifiable, multi-agent process, our framework provides a robust path toward deploying trustworthy AI systems in high-stakes domains like clinical decision support.

Current approaches for training Process Reward Models (PRMs) often involve breaking down responses into multiple reasoning steps using rule-based techniques, such as using predefined placeholder tokens or setting the reasoning step's length into a fixed size. These approaches overlook the fact that specific words do not typically mark true decision points in a text. To address this, we propose AdaptiveStep, a method that divides reasoning steps based on the model's confidence in predicting the next word. This division method provides more decision-making information at each step, enhancing downstream tasks, such as reward model learning. Moreover, our method does not require manual annotation. We demonstrate its effectiveness through experiments with AdaptiveStep-trained PRMs in mathematical reasoning and code generation tasks. Experimental results indicate that the outcome PRM achieves state-of-the-art Best-of-N performance, surpassing greedy search strategy with token-level value-guided decoding, while also reducing construction costs by over 30% compared to existing open-source PRMs. In addition, we provide a thorough analysis and case study on the PRM's performance, transferability, and generalization capabilities.

Mixture of Expert Tuning (MoE-Tuning) has effectively enhanced the performance of general MLLMs with fewer parameters, yet its application in resource-limited medical settings has not been fully explored. To address this gap, we developed MoE-TinyMed, a model tailored for medical applications that significantly lowers parameter demands. In evaluations on the VQA-RAD, SLAKE, and Path-VQA datasets, MoE-TinyMed outperformed LLaVA-Med in all Med-VQA closed settings with just 3.6B parameters. Additionally, a streamlined version with 2B parameters surpassed LLaVA-Med's performance in PathVQA, showcasing its effectiveness in resource-limited healthcare settings.

A popular approach for improving the correctness of output from large language models (LLMs) is Self-Consistency - poll the LLM multiple times and output the most frequent solution. Existing Self-Consistency techniques always draw a constant number of samples per question, where a better approach will be to non-uniformly distribute the available budget based on the amount of agreement in the samples drawn so far. In response, we introduce Adaptive-Consistency, a cost-efficient, model-agnostic technique that dynamically adjusts the number of samples per question using a lightweight stopping criterion. Our experiments over 13 datasets and two LLMs demonstrate that Adaptive-Consistency reduces sample budget by up to 6.0 times with an average accuracy drop of less than 0.1%.

In the pharmaceutical industry, the use of artificial intelligence (AI) has seen consistent growth over the past decade. This rise is attributed to major advancements in statistical machine learning methodologies, computational capabilities and the increased availability of large datasets. AI techniques are applied throughout different stages of drug development, ranging from drug discovery to post-marketing benefit-risk assessment. Kolluri et al. provided a review of several case studies that span these stages, featuring key applications such as protein structure prediction, success probability estimation, subgroup identification, and AI-assisted clinical trial monitoring. From a regulatory standpoint, there was a notable uptick in submissions incorporating AI components in 2021. The most prevalent therapeutic areas leveraging AI were oncology (27%), psychiatry (15%), gastroenterology (12%), and neurology (11%). The paradigm of personalized or precision medicine has gained significant traction in recent research, partly due to advancements in AI techniques hamburg2010path. This shift has had a transformative impact on the pharmaceutical industry. Departing from the traditional "one-size-fits-all" model, personalized medicine incorporates various individual factors, such as environmental conditions, lifestyle choices, and health histories, to formulate customized treatment plans. By utilizing sophisticated machine learning algorithms, clinicians and researchers are better equipped to make informed decisions in areas such as disease prevention, diagnosis, and treatment selection, thereby optimizing health outcomes for each individual.

The mining of adverse drug events (ADEs) is pivotal in pharmacovigilance, enhancing patient safety by identifying potential risks associated with medications, facilitating early detection of adverse events, and guiding regulatory decision-making. Traditional ADE detection methods are reliable but slow, not easily adaptable to large-scale operations, and offer limited information. With the exponential increase in data sources like social media content, biomedical literature, and Electronic Medical Records (EMR), extracting relevant ADE-related information from these unstructured texts is imperative. Previous ADE mining studies have focused on text-based methodologies, overlooking visual cues, limiting contextual comprehension, and hindering accurate interpretation. To address this gap, we present a MultiModal Adverse Drug Event (MMADE) detection dataset, merging ADE-related textual information with visual aids. Additionally, we introduce a framework that leverages the capabilities of LLMs and VLMs for ADE detection by generating detailed descriptions of medical images depicting ADEs, aiding healthcare professionals in visually identifying adverse events. Using our MMADE dataset, we showcase the significance of integrating visual cues from images to enhance overall performance. This approach holds promise for patient safety, ADE awareness, and healthcare accessibility, paving the way for further exploration in personalized healthcare.

We present Gazal-R1, a 32-billion-parameter language model that achieves state-of-the-art performance in medical reasoning while providing transparent, step-by-step explanations for clinical decision-making. Built upon Qwen3 32B, our model demonstrates that strategic training can enable mid-sized models to outperform significantly larger counterparts in specialized domains. We developed a novel two-stage training pipeline: first, supervised fine-tuning on a carefully curated dataset of 107,033 synthetic medical reasoning examples that teaches structured clinical thinking, enhanced by advanced parameter-efficient techniques including Weight-Decomposed Low-Rank Adaptation (DoRA) and Rank-Stabilized LoRA (rsLoRA); second, reinforcement learning using Group Relative Policy Optimization (GRPO) with a sophisticated multi-component reward system that refines accuracy, format adherence, and reasoning quality. Gazal-R1 achieves exceptional performance across medical benchmarks, scoring 87.1% on MedQA, 81.6% on MMLU Pro (Medical), and 79.6% on PubMedQA, surpassing models up to 12x larger. Beyond its strong empirical results, this work provides detailed insights into the challenges of training reasoning-capable models in specialized domains, including issues with reward hacking, training instability, and the fundamental tension between factual recall and detailed reasoning. Our methodology offers a reproducible framework for developing high-capability, domain-specific language models that balance performance, efficiency, and explainability.

To generate evidence regarding the safety and efficacy of artificial intelligence (AI) enabled medical devices, AI models need to be evaluated on a diverse population of patient cases, some of which may not be readily available. We propose an evaluation approach for testing medical imaging AI models that relies on in silico imaging pipelines in which stochastic digital models of human anatomy (in object space) with and without pathology are imaged using a digital replica imaging acquisition system to generate realistic synthetic image datasets. Here, we release M-SYNTH, a dataset of cohorts with four breast fibroglandular density distributions imaged at different exposure levels using Monte Carlo x-ray simulations with the publicly available Virtual Imaging Clinical Trial for Regulatory Evaluation (VICTRE) toolkit. We utilize the synthetic dataset to analyze AI model performance and find that model performance decreases with increasing breast density and increases with higher mass density, as expected. As exposure levels decrease, AI model performance drops with the highest performance achieved at exposure levels lower than the nominal recommended dose for the breast type.

The drug development pipeline for a new compound can last 10-20 years and cost over 10 billion. Drug repurposing offers a more time- and cost-effective alternative. Computational approaches based on biomedical knowledge graph representations have recently yielded new drug repurposing hypotheses. In this study, we present a novel, disease-specific hypergraph representation learning technique to derive contextual embeddings of biological pathways of various lengths but that all start at any given drug and all end at the disease of interest. Further, we extend this method to multi-disease hypergraphs. To determine the repurposing potential of each of the 1,522 drugs, we derive drug-specific distributions of cosine similarity values and ultimately consider the median for ranking. Cosine similarity values are computed between (1) all biological pathways starting at the considered drug and ending at the disease of interest and (2) all biological pathways starting at drugs currently prescribed against that disease and ending at the disease of interest. We illustrate our approach with Alzheimer's disease (AD) and two of its risk factors: hypertension (HTN) and type 2 diabetes (T2D). We compare each drug's rank across four hypergraph settings (single- or multi-disease): AD only, AD + HTN, AD + T2D, and AD + HTN + T2D. Notably, our framework led to the identification of two promising drugs whose repurposing potential was significantly higher in hypergraphs combining two diseases: dapagliflozin (antidiabetic; moved up, from top 32% to top 7%, across all considered drugs) and debrisoquine (antihypertensive; moved up, from top 76% to top 23%). Our approach serves as a hypothesis generation tool, to be paired with a validation pipeline relying on laboratory experiments and semi-automated parsing of the biomedical literature.

We present a new distribution-free conformal prediction algorithm for sequential data (e.g., time series), called the sequential predictive conformal inference (SPCI). We specifically account for the nature that time series data are non-exchangeable, and thus many existing conformal prediction algorithms are not applicable. The main idea is to adaptively re-estimate the conditional quantile of non-conformity scores (e.g., prediction residuals), upon exploiting the temporal dependence among them. More precisely, we cast the problem of conformal prediction interval as predicting the quantile of a future residual, given a user-specified point prediction algorithm. Theoretically, we establish asymptotic valid conditional coverage upon extending consistency analyses in quantile regression. Using simulation and real-data experiments, we demonstrate a significant reduction in interval width of SPCI compared to other existing methods under the desired empirical coverage.

While the general machine learning (ML) community has benefited from public datasets, tasks, and models, the progress of ML in healthcare has been hampered by a lack of such shared assets. The success of foundation models creates new challenges for healthcare ML by requiring access to shared pretrained models to validate performance benefits. We help address these challenges through three contributions. First, we publish a new dataset, EHRSHOT, which contains deidentified structured data from the electronic health records (EHRs) of 6,739 patients from Stanford Medicine. Unlike MIMIC-III/IV and other popular EHR datasets, EHRSHOT is longitudinal and not restricted to ICU/ED patients. Second, we publish the weights of CLMBR-T-base, a 141M parameter clinical foundation model pretrained on the structured EHR data of 2.57M patients. We are one of the first to fully release such a model for coded EHR data; in contrast, most prior models released for clinical data (e.g. GatorTron, ClinicalBERT) only work with unstructured text and cannot process the rich, structured data within an EHR. We provide an end-to-end pipeline for the community to validate and build upon its performance. Third, we define 15 few-shot clinical prediction tasks, enabling evaluation of foundation models on benefits such as sample efficiency and task adaptation. Our model and dataset are available via a research data use agreement from the Stanford AIMI Center. Code to reproduce our results are available at our Github repo: https://github.com/som-shahlab/ehrshot-benchmark

As the capabilities of Large Language Models (LLMs) in healthcare and medicine continue to advance, there is a growing need for competitive open-source models that can safeguard public interest. With the increasing availability of highly competitive open base models, the impact of continued pre-training is increasingly uncertain. In this work, we explore the role of instruct tuning, model merging, alignment, red teaming and advanced inference schemes, as means to improve current open models. To that end, we introduce the Aloe family, a set of open medical LLMs highly competitive within its scale range. Aloe models are trained on the current best base models (Mistral, LLaMA 3), using a new custom dataset which combines public data sources improved with synthetic Chain of Thought (CoT). Aloe models undergo an alignment phase, becoming one of the first few policy-aligned open healthcare LLM using Direct Preference Optimization, setting a new standard for ethical performance in healthcare LLMs. Model evaluation expands to include various bias and toxicity datasets, a dedicated red teaming effort, and a much-needed risk assessment for healthcare LLMs. Finally, to explore the limits of current LLMs in inference, we study several advanced prompt engineering strategies to boost performance across benchmarks, yielding state-of-the-art results for open healthcare 7B LLMs, unprecedented at this scale.

The objective of personalized medicine is to tailor interventions to an individual patient's unique characteristics. A key technology for this purpose involves medical digital twins, computational models of human biology that can be personalized and dynamically updated to incorporate patient-specific data collected over time. Certain aspects of human biology, such as the immune system, are not easily captured with physics-based models, such as differential equations. Instead, they are often multi-scale, stochastic, and hybrid. This poses a challenge to existing model-based control and optimization approaches that cannot be readily applied to such models. Recent advances in automatic differentiation and neural-network control methods hold promise in addressing complex control problems. However, the application of these approaches to biomedical systems is still in its early stages. This work introduces dynamics-informed neural-network controllers as an alternative approach to control of medical digital twins. As a first use case for this method, the focus is on agent-based models, a versatile and increasingly common modeling platform in biomedicine. The effectiveness of the proposed neural-network control method is illustrated and benchmarked against other methods with two widely-used agent-based model types. The relevance of the method introduced here extends beyond medical digital twins to other complex dynamical systems.

Providing effective treatment and making informed clinical decisions are essential goals of modern medicine and clinical care. We are interested in simulating disease dynamics for clinical decision-making, leveraging recent advances in large generative models. To this end, we introduce the Medical World Model (MeWM), the first world model in medicine that visually predicts future disease states based on clinical decisions. MeWM comprises (i) vision-language models to serve as policy models, and (ii) tumor generative models as dynamics models. The policy model generates action plans, such as clinical treatments, while the dynamics model simulates tumor progression or regression under given treatment conditions. Building on this, we propose the inverse dynamics model that applies survival analysis to the simulated post-treatment tumor, enabling the evaluation of treatment efficacy and the selection of the optimal clinical action plan. As a result, the proposed MeWM simulates disease dynamics by synthesizing post-treatment tumors, with state-of-the-art specificity in Turing tests evaluated by radiologists. Simultaneously, its inverse dynamics model outperforms medical-specialized GPTs in optimizing individualized treatment protocols across all metrics. Notably, MeWM improves clinical decision-making for interventional physicians, boosting F1-score in selecting the optimal TACE protocol by 13%, paving the way for future integration of medical world models as the second readers.