Daily Papers

We present MedXIAOHE, a medical vision-language foundation model designed to advance general-purpose medical understanding and reasoning in real-world clinical applications. MedXIAOHE achieves state-of-the-art performance across diverse medical benchmarks and surpasses leading closed-source multimodal systems on multiple capabilities. To achieve this, we propose an entity-aware continual pretraining framework that organizes heterogeneous medical corpora to broaden knowledge coverage and reduce long-tail gaps (e.g., rare diseases). For medical expert-level reasoning and interaction, MedXIAOHE incorporates diverse medical reasoning patterns via reinforcement learning and tool-augmented agentic training, enabling multi-step diagnostic reasoning with verifiable decision traces. To improve reliability in real-world use, MedXIAOHE integrates user-preference rubrics, evidence-grounded reasoning, and low-hallucination long-form report generation, with improved adherence to medical instructions. We release this report to document our practical design choices, scaling insights, and evaluation framework, hoping to inspire further research.

Dynamic Retrieval-Augmented Generation adaptively determines when to retrieve during generation to mitigate hallucinations in large language models (LLMs). However, existing methods rely on model-internal signals (e.g., logits, entropy), which are fundamentally unreliable because LLMs are typically ill-calibrated and often exhibit high confidence in erroneous outputs. We propose QuCo-RAG, which shifts from subjective confidence to objective statistics computed from pre-training data. Our method quantifies uncertainty through two stages: (1) before generation, we identify low-frequency entities indicating long-tail knowledge gaps; (2) during generation, we verify entity co-occurrence in the pre-training corpus, where zero co-occurrence often signals hallucination risk. Both stages leverage Infini-gram for millisecond-latency queries over 4 trillion tokens, triggering retrieval when uncertainty is high. Experiments on multi-hop QA benchmarks show QuCo-RAG achieves EM gains of 5--12 points over state-of-the-art baselines with OLMo-2 models, and transfers effectively to models with undisclosed pre-training data (Llama, Qwen, GPT), improving EM by up to 14 points. Domain generalization on biomedical QA further validates the robustness of our paradigm. These results establish corpus-grounded verification as a principled, practically model-agnostic paradigm for dynamic RAG. Our code is publicly available at https://github.com/ZhishanQ/QuCo-RAG.

Popular text-to-image (T2I) systems are trained on web-scraped data, which is heavily Amero and Euro-centric, underrepresenting the cultures of the Global South. To analyze these biases, we introduce CuRe, a novel and scalable benchmarking and scoring suite for cultural representativeness that leverages the marginal utility of attribute specification to T2I systems as a proxy for human judgments. Our CuRe benchmark dataset has a novel categorical hierarchy built from the crowdsourced Wikimedia knowledge graph, with 300 cultural artifacts across 32 cultural subcategories grouped into six broad cultural axes (food, art, fashion, architecture, celebrations, and people). Our dataset's categorical hierarchy enables CuRe scorers to evaluate T2I systems by analyzing their response to increasing the informativeness of text conditioning, enabling fine-grained cultural comparisons. We empirically observe much stronger correlations of our class of scorers to human judgments of perceptual similarity, image-text alignment, and cultural diversity across image encoders (SigLIP 2, AIMV2 and DINOv2), vision-language models (OpenCLIP, SigLIP 2, Gemini 2.0 Flash) and state-of-the-art text-to-image systems, including three variants of Stable Diffusion (1.5, XL, 3.5 Large), FLUX.1 [dev], Ideogram 2.0, and DALL-E 3. The code and dataset is open-sourced and available at https://aniketrege.github.io/cure/.

Large Reasoning Models (LRMs) have demonstrated impressive performance on complex tasks, including logical puzzle games that require deriving solutions satisfying all constraints. However, whether they can flexibly apply appropriate rules to varying conditions, particularly when faced with non-canonical game variants, remains an open question. Existing corpora focus on popular puzzles like 9x9 Sudoku, risking overfitting to canonical formats and memorization of solution patterns, which can mask deficiencies in understanding novel rules or adapting strategies to new variants. To address this, we introduce HardcoreLogic, a challenging benchmark of over 5,000 puzzles across 10 games, designed to test the robustness of LRMs on the "long-tail" of logical games. HardcoreLogic systematically transforms canonical puzzles through three dimensions: Increased Complexity (IC), Uncommon Elements (UE), and Unsolvable Puzzles (UP), reducing reliance on shortcut memorization. Evaluations on a diverse set of LRMs reveal significant performance drops, even for models achieving top scores on existing benchmarks, indicating heavy reliance on memorized stereotypes. While increased complexity is the dominant source of difficulty, models also struggle with subtle rule variations that do not necessarily increase puzzle difficulty. Our systematic error analysis on solvable and unsolvable puzzles further highlights gaps in genuine reasoning. Overall, HardcoreLogic exposes the limitations of current LRMs and establishes a benchmark for advancing high-level logical reasoning.

Fine-tuning for large language models (LLMs) typically requires substantial amounts of high-quality supervised data, which is both costly and labor-intensive to acquire. While synthetic data generation has emerged as a promising solution, existing approaches frequently suffer from factual inaccuracies, insufficient long-tail coverage, simplistic knowledge structures, and homogenized outputs. To address these challenges, we introduce GraphGen, a knowledge graph-guided framework designed for three key question-answering (QA) scenarios: atomic QA, aggregated QA, and multi-hop QA. It begins by constructing a fine-grained knowledge graph from the source text. It then identifies knowledge gaps in LLMs using the expected calibration error metric, prioritizing the generation of QA pairs that target high-value, long-tail knowledge. Furthermore, GraphGen incorporates multi-hop neighborhood sampling to capture complex relational information and employs style-controlled generation to diversify the resulting QA data. Experimental results on knowledge-intensive tasks under closed-book settings demonstrate that GraphGen outperforms conventional synthetic data methods, offering a more reliable and comprehensive solution to the data scarcity challenge in supervised fine-tuning. The code and data are publicly available at https://github.com/open-sciencelab/GraphGen.

Multilingual falsehoods threaten information integrity worldwide, yet detection benchmarks remain confined to English or a few high-resource languages, leaving low-resource linguistic communities without robust defense tools. We introduce BLUFF, a comprehensive benchmark for detecting false and synthetic content, spanning 79 languages with over 202K samples, combining human-written fact-checked content (122K+ samples across 57 languages) and LLM-generated content (79K+ samples across 71 languages). BLUFF uniquely covers both high-resource "big-head" (20) and low-resource "long-tail" (59) languages, addressing critical gaps in multilingual research on detecting false and synthetic content. Our dataset features four content types (human-written, LLM-generated, LLM-translated, and hybrid human-LLM text), bidirectional translation (EnglishleftrightarrowX), 39 textual modification techniques (36 manipulation tactics for fake news, 3 AI-editing strategies for real news), and varying edit intensities generated using 19 diverse LLMs. We present AXL-CoI (Adversarial Cross-Lingual Agentic Chainof-Interactions), a novel multi-agentic framework for controlled fake/real news generation, paired with mPURIFY, a quality filtering pipeline ensuring dataset integrity. Experiments reveal state-of-theart detectors suffer up to 25.3% F1 degradation on low-resource versus high-resource languages. BLUFF provides the research community with a multilingual benchmark, extensive linguistic-oriented benchmark evaluation, comprehensive documentation, and opensource tools to advance equitable falsehood detection. Dataset and code are available at: https://jsl5710.github.io/BLUFF/

While recent advances in neural representations and generative models have revolutionized 3D content creation, the field remains constrained by significant data processing bottlenecks. To address this, we introduce HY3D-Bench, an open-source ecosystem designed to establish a unified, high-quality foundation for 3D generation. Our contributions are threefold: (1) We curate a library of 250k high-fidelity 3D objects distilled from large-scale repositories, employing a rigorous pipeline to deliver training-ready artifacts, including watertight meshes and multi-view renderings; (2) We introduce structured part-level decomposition, providing the granularity essential for fine-grained perception and controllable editing; and (3) We bridge real-world distribution gaps via a scalable AIGC synthesis pipeline, contributing 125k synthetic assets to enhance diversity in long-tail categories. Validated empirically through the training of Hunyuan3D-2.1-Small, HY3D-Bench democratizes access to robust data resources, aiming to catalyze innovation across 3D perception, robotics, and digital content creation.

Accurate prediction of pedestrians' future motions is critical for intelligent driving systems. Developing models for this task requires rich datasets containing diverse sets of samples. However, the existing naturalistic trajectory prediction datasets are generally imbalanced in favor of simpler samples and lack challenging scenarios. Such a long-tail effect causes prediction models to underperform on the tail portion of the data distribution containing safety-critical scenarios. Previous methods tackle the long-tail problem using methods such as contrastive learning and class-conditioned hypernetworks. These approaches, however, are not modular and cannot be applied to many machine learning architectures. In this work, we propose a modular model-agnostic framework for trajectory prediction that leverages a specialized mixture of experts. In our approach, each expert is trained with a specialized skill with respect to a particular part of the data. To produce predictions, we utilise a router network that selects the best expert by generating relative confidence scores. We conduct experimentation on common pedestrian trajectory prediction datasets and show that besides achieving state-of-the-art performance, our method significantly performs better on long-tail scenarios. We further conduct ablation studies to highlight the contribution of different proposed components.

One of the most profound challenges of modern machine learning is performing well on the long-tail of rare and underrepresented features. Large general-purpose models are trained for many tasks, but work best on high-frequency use cases. After training, it is hard to adapt a model to perform well on specific use cases underrepresented in the training corpus. Relying on prompt engineering or few-shot examples to maximize the output quality on a particular test case can be frustrating, as models can be highly sensitive to small changes, react in unpredicted ways or rely on a fixed system prompt for maintaining performance. In this work, we ask: "Can we optimize our training protocols to both improve controllability and performance on underrepresented use cases at inference time?" We revisit the divide between training and inference techniques to improve long-tail performance while providing users with a set of control levers the model is trained to be responsive to. We create a detailed taxonomy of data characteristics and task provenance to explicitly control generation attributes and implicitly condition generations at inference time. We fine-tune a base model to infer these markers automatically, which makes them optional at inference time. This principled and flexible approach yields pronounced improvements in performance, especially on examples from the long tail of the training distribution. While we observe an average lift of 5.7% win rates in open-ended generation quality with our markers, we see over 9.1% gains in underrepresented domains. We also observe relative lifts of up to 14.1% on underrepresented tasks like CodeRepair and absolute improvements of 35.3% on length instruction following evaluations.

Long-tailed data distributions pose challenges for a variety of domains like e-commerce, finance, biomedical science, and cyber security, where the performance of machine learning models is often dominated by head categories while tail categories are inadequately learned. This work aims to provide a systematic view of long-tailed learning with regard to three pivotal angles: (A1) the characterization of data long-tailedness, (A2) the data complexity of various domains, and (A3) the heterogeneity of emerging tasks. We develop HeroLT, a comprehensive long-tailed learning benchmark integrating 18 state-of-the-art algorithms, 10 evaluation metrics, and 17 real-world datasets across 6 tasks and 4 data modalities. HeroLT with novel angles and extensive experiments (315 in total) enables effective and fair evaluation of newly proposed methods compared with existing baselines on varying dataset types. Finally, we conclude by highlighting the significant applications of long-tailed learning and identifying several promising future directions. For accessibility and reproducibility, we open-source our benchmark HeroLT and corresponding results at https://github.com/SSSKJ/HeroLT.

Real-world data tends to follow a long-tailed distribution, where the class imbalance results in dominance of the head classes during training. In this paper, we propose a frustratingly simple but effective step-wise learning framework to gradually enhance the capability of the model in detecting all categories of long-tailed datasets. Specifically, we build smooth-tail data where the long-tailed distribution of categories decays smoothly to correct the bias towards head classes. We pre-train a model on the whole long-tailed data to preserve discriminability between all categories. We then fine-tune the class-agnostic modules of the pre-trained model on the head class dominant replay data to get a head class expert model with improved decision boundaries from all categories. Finally, we train a unified model on the tail class dominant replay data while transferring knowledge from the head class expert model to ensure accurate detection of all categories. Extensive experiments on long-tailed datasets LVIS v0.5 and LVIS v1.0 demonstrate the superior performance of our method, where we can improve the AP with ResNet-50 backbone from 27.0% to 30.3% AP, and especially for the rare categories from 15.5% to 24.9% AP. Our best model using ResNet-101 backbone can achieve 30.7% AP, which suppresses all existing detectors using the same backbone.

Internet photo collections exhibit an extremely long-tailed distribution: a few famous landmarks are densely photographed and easily reconstructed in 3D, while most real-world sites are represented with sparse, noisy, uneven imagery beyond the capabilities of both classical and learned 3D methods. We believe that tackling this long-tail regime represents one of the next frontiers for 3D foundation models. Although reliable ground-truth 3D supervision from sparse scenes is challenging to acquire, we observe that it can be effectively simulated by sampling sparse subsets from well-reconstructed Internet landmarks. To this end, we introduce MegaDepth-X, a large dataset of 3D reconstructions with clean, dense depth, together with a strategy for sampling sets of training images that mimic camera distributions in long-tail scenes. Finetuning 3D foundation models with these components yields robust reconstructions under extreme sparsity, and also enables more reliable reconstruction in symmetric and repetitive scenes, while preserving generalization to standard, dense 3D benchmark datasets.

A recent study by Feldman (2020) proposed a long-tail theory to explain the memorization behavior of deep learning models. However, memorization has not been empirically verified in the context of NLP, a gap addressed by this work. In this paper, we use three different NLP tasks to check if the long-tail theory holds. Our experiments demonstrate that top-ranked memorized training instances are likely atypical, and removing the top-memorized training instances leads to a more serious drop in test accuracy compared with removing training instances randomly. Furthermore, we develop an attribution method to better understand why a training instance is memorized. We empirically show that our memorization attribution method is faithful, and share our interesting finding that the top-memorized parts of a training instance tend to be features negatively correlated with the class label.

The long-tail distribution of the visual world poses great challenges for deep learning based classification models on how to handle the class imbalance problem. Existing solutions usually involve class-balancing strategies, e.g., by loss re-weighting, data re-sampling, or transfer learning from head- to tail-classes, but most of them adhere to the scheme of jointly learning representations and classifiers. In this work, we decouple the learning procedure into representation learning and classification, and systematically explore how different balancing strategies affect them for long-tailed recognition. The findings are surprising: (1) data imbalance might not be an issue in learning high-quality representations; (2) with representations learned with the simplest instance-balanced (natural) sampling, it is also possible to achieve strong long-tailed recognition ability by adjusting only the classifier. We conduct extensive experiments and set new state-of-the-art performance on common long-tailed benchmarks like ImageNet-LT, Places-LT and iNaturalist, showing that it is possible to outperform carefully designed losses, sampling strategies, even complex modules with memory, by using a straightforward approach that decouples representation and classification. Our code is available at https://github.com/facebookresearch/classifier-balancing.

The Growth-at-Risk (GaR) framework has garnered attention in recent econometric literature, yet current approaches implicitly assume a constant Pareto exponent. We introduce novel and robust econometrics to estimate the tails of GaR based on a rigorous theoretical framework and establish validity and effectiveness. Simulations demonstrate consistent outperformance relative to existing alternatives in terms of predictive accuracy. We perform a long-term GaR analysis that provides accurate and insightful predictions, effectively capturing financial anomalies better than current methods.

Since large language models have approached human-level performance on many tasks, it has become increasingly harder for researchers to find tasks that are still challenging to the models. Failure cases usually come from the long-tail distribution - data that an oracle language model could assign a probability on the lower end of its distribution. Current methodology such as prompt engineering or crowdsourcing are insufficient for creating long-tail examples because humans are constrained by cognitive bias. We propose a Logic-Induced-Knowledge-Search (LINK) framework for systematically generating long-tail knowledge statements. Grounded by a symbolic rule, we search for long-tail values for each variable of the rule by first prompting a LLM, then verifying the correctness of the values with a critic, and lastly pushing for the long-tail distribution with a reranker. With this framework we construct a dataset, Logic-Induced-Long-Tail (LINT), consisting of 200 symbolic rules and 50K knowledge statements spanning across four domains. Human annotations find that 84% of the statements in LINT are factually correct. In contrast, ChatGPT and GPT4 struggle with directly generating long-tail statements under the guidance of logic rules, each only getting 56% and 78% of their statements correct. Moreover, their "long-tail" generations in fact fall into the higher likelihood range, and thus are not really long-tail. Our findings suggest that LINK is effective for generating data in the long-tail distribution while enforcing quality. LINT can be useful for systematically evaluating LLMs' capabilities in the long-tail distribution. We challenge the models with a simple entailment classification task using samples from LINT. We find that ChatGPT and GPT4's capability in identifying incorrect knowledge drop by ~3% in the long-tail distribution compared to head distribution.

Deep long-tailed learning, one of the most challenging problems in visual recognition, aims to train well-performing deep models from a large number of images that follow a long-tailed class distribution. In the last decade, deep learning has emerged as a powerful recognition model for learning high-quality image representations and has led to remarkable breakthroughs in generic visual recognition. However, long-tailed class imbalance, a common problem in practical visual recognition tasks, often limits the practicality of deep network based recognition models in real-world applications, since they can be easily biased towards dominant classes and perform poorly on tail classes. To address this problem, a large number of studies have been conducted in recent years, making promising progress in the field of deep long-tailed learning. Considering the rapid evolution of this field, this paper aims to provide a comprehensive survey on recent advances in deep long-tailed learning. To be specific, we group existing deep long-tailed learning studies into three main categories (i.e., class re-balancing, information augmentation and module improvement), and review these methods following this taxonomy in detail. Afterward, we empirically analyze several state-of-the-art methods by evaluating to what extent they address the issue of class imbalance via a newly proposed evaluation metric, i.e., relative accuracy. We conclude the survey by highlighting important applications of deep long-tailed learning and identifying several promising directions for future research.

Scene text detection has seen the emergence of high-performing methods that excel on academic benchmarks. However, these detectors often fail to replicate such success in real-world scenarios. We uncover two key factors contributing to this discrepancy through extensive experiments. First, a Fine-tuning Gap, where models leverage Dataset-Specific Optimization (DSO) paradigm for one domain at the cost of reduced effectiveness in others, leads to inflated performances on academic benchmarks. Second, the suboptimal performance in practical settings is primarily attributed to the long-tailed distribution of texts, where detectors struggle with rare and complex categories as artistic or overlapped text. Given that the DSO paradigm might undermine the generalization ability of models, we advocate for a Joint-Dataset Learning (JDL) protocol to alleviate the Fine-tuning Gap. Additionally, an error analysis is conducted to identify three major categories and 13 subcategories of challenges in long-tailed scene text, upon which we propose a Long-Tailed Benchmark (LTB). LTB facilitates a comprehensive evaluation of ability to handle a diverse range of long-tailed challenges. We further introduce MAEDet, a self-supervised learning-based method, as a strong baseline for LTB. The code is available at https://github.com/pd162/LTB.

Natural data are often long-tail distributed over semantic classes. Existing recognition methods tackle this imbalanced classification by placing more emphasis on the tail data, through class re-balancing/re-weighting or ensembling over different data groups, resulting in increased tail accuracies but reduced head accuracies. We take a dynamic view of the training data and provide a principled model bias and variance analysis as the training data fluctuates: Existing long-tail classifiers invariably increase the model variance and the head-tail model bias gap remains large, due to more and larger confusion with hard negatives for the tail. We propose a new long-tailed classifier called RoutIng Diverse Experts (RIDE). It reduces the model variance with multiple experts, reduces the model bias with a distribution-aware diversity loss, reduces the computational cost with a dynamic expert routing module. RIDE outperforms the state-of-the-art by 5% to 7% on CIFAR100-LT, ImageNet-LT and iNaturalist 2018 benchmarks. It is also a universal framework that is applicable to various backbone networks, long-tailed algorithms, and training mechanisms for consistent performance gains. Our code is available at: https://github.com/frank-xwang/RIDE-LongTailRecognition.

Real-world data often exhibits long tail distributions with heavy class imbalance, where the majority classes can dominate the training process and alter the decision boundaries of the minority classes. Recently, researchers have investigated the potential of supervised contrastive learning for long-tailed recognition, and demonstrated that it provides a strong performance gain. In this paper, we show that while supervised contrastive learning can help improve performance, past baselines suffer from poor uniformity brought in by imbalanced data distribution. This poor uniformity manifests in samples from the minority class having poor separability in the feature space. To address this problem, we propose targeted supervised contrastive learning (TSC), which improves the uniformity of the feature distribution on the hypersphere. TSC first generates a set of targets uniformly distributed on a hypersphere. It then makes the features of different classes converge to these distinct and uniformly distributed targets during training. This forces all classes, including minority classes, to maintain a uniform distribution in the feature space, improves class boundaries, and provides better generalization even in the presence of long-tail data. Experiments on multiple datasets show that TSC achieves state-of-the-art performance on long-tailed recognition tasks.

Recent studies indicate that NLU models are prone to rely on shortcut features for prediction, without achieving true language understanding. As a result, these models fail to generalize to real-world out-of-distribution data. In this work, we show that the words in the NLU training set can be modeled as a long-tailed distribution. There are two findings: 1) NLU models have strong preference for features located at the head of the long-tailed distribution, and 2) Shortcut features are picked up during very early few iterations of the model training. These two observations are further employed to formulate a measurement which can quantify the shortcut degree of each training sample. Based on this shortcut measurement, we propose a shortcut mitigation framework LTGR, to suppress the model from making overconfident predictions for samples with large shortcut degree. Experimental results on three NLU benchmarks demonstrate that our long-tailed distribution explanation accurately reflects the shortcut learning behavior of NLU models. Experimental analysis further indicates that LTGR can improve the generalization accuracy on OOD data, while preserving the accuracy on in-distribution data.

Long-tailed learning has garnered increasing attention due to its practical significance. Among the various approaches, the fine-tuning paradigm has gained considerable interest with the advent of foundation models. However, most existing methods primarily focus on leveraging knowledge from these models, overlooking the inherent biases introduced by the imbalanced training data they rely on. In this paper, we examine how such imbalances from pre-training affect long-tailed downstream tasks. Specifically, we find the imbalance biases inherited in foundation models on downstream task as parameter imbalance and data imbalance. During fine-tuning, we observe that parameter imbalance plays a more critical role, while data imbalance can be mitigated using existing re-balancing strategies. Moreover, we find that parameter imbalance cannot be effectively addressed by current re-balancing techniques, such as adjusting the logits, during training, unlike data imbalance. To tackle both imbalances simultaneously, we build our method on causal learning and view the incomplete semantic factor as the confounder, which brings spurious correlations between input samples and labels. To resolve the negative effects of this, we propose a novel backdoor adjustment method that learns the true causal effect between input samples and labels, rather than merely fitting the correlations in the data. Notably, we achieve an average performance increase of about 1.67% on each dataset.

Long-tailed learning has garnered increasing attention due to its wide applicability in real-world scenarios. Among existing approaches, Long-Tailed Semi-Supervised Learning (LTSSL) has emerged as an effective solution by incorporating a large amount of unlabeled data into the imbalanced labeled dataset. However, most prior LTSSL methods are designed to train models from scratch, which often leads to issues such as overconfidence and low-quality pseudo-labels. To address these challenges, we extend LTSSL into the foundation model fine-tuning paradigm and propose a novel framework: LoFT (Long-tailed semi-supervised learning via parameter-efficient Fine-Tuning). We demonstrate that fine-tuned foundation models can generate more reliable pseudolabels, thereby benefiting imbalanced learning. Furthermore, we explore a more practical setting by investigating semi-supervised learning under open-world conditions, where the unlabeled data may include out-of-distribution (OOD) samples. To handle this problem, we propose LoFT-OW (LoFT under Open-World scenarios) to improve the discriminative ability. Experimental results on multiple benchmarks demonstrate that our method achieves superior performance compared to previous approaches, even when utilizing only 1\% of the unlabeled data compared with previous works.

Long-tailed classification is challenging due to its heavy imbalance in class probabilities. While existing methods often focus on overall accuracy or accuracy for tail classes, they overlook a critical aspect: certain types of errors can carry greater risks than others in real-world long-tailed problems. For example, misclassifying patients (a tail class) as healthy individuals (a head class) entails far more serious consequences than the reverse scenario. To address this critical issue, we introduce Making Reliable and Flexible Decisions in Long-tailed Classification (RF-DLC), a novel framework aimed at reliable predictions in long-tailed problems. Leveraging Bayesian Decision Theory, we introduce an integrated gain to seamlessly combine long-tailed data distributions and the decision-making procedure. We further propose an efficient variational optimization strategy for the decision risk objective. Our method adapts readily to diverse utility matrices, which can be designed for specific tasks, ensuring its flexibility for different problem settings. In empirical evaluation, we design a new metric, False Head Rate, to quantify tail-sensitivity risk, along with comprehensive experiments on multiple real-world tasks, including large-scale image classification and uncertainty quantification, to demonstrate the reliability and flexibility of our method.

To schedule LLM inference, the shortest job first (SJF) principle is favorable by prioritizing requests with short output lengths to avoid head-of-line (HOL) blocking. Existing methods usually predict a single output length for each request to facilitate scheduling. We argue that such a point estimate does not match the stochastic decoding process of LLM inference, where output length is uncertain by nature and determined by when the end-of-sequence (EOS) token is sampled. Hence, the output length of each request should be fitted with a distribution rather than a single value. With an in-depth analysis of empirical data and the stochastic decoding process, we observe that output length follows a heavy-tailed distribution and can be fitted with the log-t distribution. On this basis, we propose a simple metric called Tail Inflated Expectation (TIE) to replace the output length in SJF scheduling, which adjusts the expectation of a log-t distribution with its tail probabilities to account for the risk that a request generates long outputs. To evaluate our TIE scheduler, we compare it with three strong baselines, and the results show that TIE reduces the per-token latency by 2.31times for online inference and improves throughput by 1.42times for offline data generation.

Real-world data often exhibit extreme imbalances and out-of-distribution (OOD) instances, which significantly biases the model training. While it has been extensively studied in vision and language domains separately, the impact of long-tailed open worlds on multi-modal large language models (MLLMs) has been largely overlooked. In this paper, we first demonstrate the susceptibility and vulnerability of vision-language models to significant biases caused by tail drift and out-of-distribution (OOD) drift during both the pre-training and fine-tuning stages. To eliminate the bias from different sources, we integrate the tailed drift adaptation and OOD drift detection into a unified framework by extending the concept drift theory to multi-modal. Specifically, a T-distribution-based drift adapter is proposed to effectively mitigate the bias induced by the long-tailed problem, which also facilitates the model in distinguishing OOD data through explicit distribution modelling. Extensive experiments show significant improvements in our model's ability to adapt to tailed drift and OOD drift. Moreover, it enhances the efficiency and accuracy of image-text alignment in vision language model pre-training, particularly in the long-tail open world scenario. Furthermore, we create a set of multi-modal datasets called OpenMMlo, specifically tailored for the long-tailed open world scenario, to validate our findings. To foster the development of the multi-modal community, we have made both OpenMMlo datasets and our code publicly available at: https://github.com/Anonymous0Knight/ConceptDriftMLLMs.

Recently, autoregressive (AR) video diffusion models has achieved remarkable performance. However, due to their limited training durations, a train-test gap emerges when testing at longer horizons, leading to rapid visual degradations. Following Self Forcing, which studies the train-test gap within the training duration, this work studies the train-test gap beyond the training duration, i.e., the gap between the limited horizons during training and open-ended horizons during testing. Since open-ended testing can extend beyond any finite training window, and long-video training is computationally expensive, we pursue a training-free solution to bridge this gap. To explore a training-free solution, we conduct a systematic analysis of AR cache maintenance. These insights lead to Rolling Sink. Built on Self Forcing (trained on only 5s clips), Rolling Sink effectively scales the AR video synthesis to ultra-long durations (e.g., 5-30 minutes at 16 FPS) at test time, with consistent subjects, stable colors, coherent structures, and smooth motions. As demonstrated by extensive experiments, Rolling Sink achieves superior long-horizon visual fidelity and temporal consistency compared to SOTA baselines. Project page: https://rolling-sink.github.io/

Recognition problems in long-tailed data, in which the sample size per class is heavily skewed, have gained importance because the distribution of the sample size per class in a dataset is generally exponential unless the sample size is intentionally adjusted. Various methods have been devised to address these problems. Recently, weight balancing, which combines well-known classical regularization techniques with two-stage training, has been proposed. Despite its simplicity, it is known for its high performance compared with existing methods devised in various ways. However, there is a lack of understanding as to why this method is effective for long-tailed data. In this study, we analyze weight balancing by focusing on neural collapse and the cone effect at each training stage and found that it can be decomposed into an increase in Fisher's discriminant ratio of the feature extractor caused by weight decay and cross entropy loss and implicit logit adjustment caused by weight decay and class-balanced loss. Our analysis enables the training method to be further simplified by reducing the number of training stages to one while increasing accuracy.

Existing long-tailed recognition methods, aiming to train class-balanced models from long-tailed data, generally assume the models would be evaluated on the uniform test class distribution. However, practical test class distributions often violate this assumption (e.g., being either long-tailed or even inversely long-tailed), which may lead existing methods to fail in real applications. In this paper, we study a more practical yet challenging task, called test-agnostic long-tailed recognition, where the training class distribution is long-tailed while the test class distribution is agnostic and not necessarily uniform. In addition to the issue of class imbalance, this task poses another challenge: the class distribution shift between the training and test data is unknown. To tackle this task, we propose a novel approach, called Self-supervised Aggregation of Diverse Experts, which consists of two strategies: (i) a new skill-diverse expert learning strategy that trains multiple experts from a single and stationary long-tailed dataset to separately handle different class distributions; (ii) a novel test-time expert aggregation strategy that leverages self-supervision to aggregate the learned multiple experts for handling unknown test class distributions. We theoretically show that our self-supervised strategy has a provable ability to simulate test-agnostic class distributions. Promising empirical results demonstrate the effectiveness of our method on both vanilla and test-agnostic long-tailed recognition. Code is available at https://github.com/Vanint/SADE-AgnosticLT.

The long-tailed distribution is a common phenomenon in the real world. Extracted large scale image datasets inevitably demonstrate the long-tailed property and models trained with imbalanced data can obtain high performance for the over-represented categories, but struggle for the under-represented categories, leading to biased predictions and performance degradation. To address this challenge, we propose a novel de-biasing method named Inverse Image Frequency (IIF). IIF is a multiplicative margin adjustment transformation of the logits in the classification layer of a convolutional neural network. Our method achieves stronger performance than similar works and it is especially useful for downstream tasks such as long-tailed instance segmentation as it produces fewer false positive detections. Our extensive experiments show that IIF surpasses the state of the art on many long-tailed benchmarks such as ImageNet-LT, CIFAR-LT, Places-LT and LVIS, reaching 55.8% top-1 accuracy with ResNet50 on ImageNet-LT and 26.2% segmentation AP with MaskRCNN on LVIS. Code available at https://github.com/kostas1515/iif

Irregular multivariate time series impose a trade-off for long-horizon forecasting: discrete methods can distort temporal structure via re-gridding, while continuous-time models often require sequential solvers prone to drift. To bridge this gap, we present Latent Laplace Diffusion (LLapDiff), a generative framework that models the target as a low-dimensional latent trajectory, enabling horizon-wide generation without step-by-step integration over physical time. We guide the reverse process utilizing a stable modal parameterization motivated by stochastic port-Hamiltonian dynamics, and parameterize its mean evolution in the Laplace domain via learnable complex-conjugate poles, enabling direct evaluation over irregular timestamps. We also link continuous dynamics to irregular observations through renewal-averaging analysis, which maps sampling gaps to effective event-domain poles and motivates a gap-aware history summarizer. Extensive experiments show that LLapDiff improves over baselines in long-horizon forecasting, and its continuous-time generative nature supports missing-value imputation by querying the same model at historical timestamps. Code is available at https://github.com/pixelhero98/LLapDiffusion.

The computational cost of training a vision-language model (VLM) can be reduced by sampling the training data. Previous work on efficient VLM pre-training has pointed to the importance of semantic data balance, adjusting the distribution of topics in the data to improve VLM accuracy. However, existing efficient pre-training approaches may disproportionately remove rare concepts from the training corpus. As a result, long-tail concepts remain insufficiently represented in the training data and are not effectively captured during training. In this work, we introduce a dynamic cluster-based sampling approach (DynamiCS) that downsamples large clusters of data and upsamples small ones. The approach is dynamic in that it applies sampling at each epoch. We first show the importance of dynamic sampling for VLM training. Then, we demonstrate the advantage of our cluster-scaling approach, which maintains the relative order of semantic clusters in the data and emphasizes the long-tail. This approach contrasts with current work, which focuses only on flattening the semantic distribution of the data. Our experiments show that DynamiCS reduces the computational cost of VLM training and provides a performance advantage for long-tail concepts.

Deep neural networks have made huge progress in the last few decades. However, as the real-world data often exhibits a long-tailed distribution, vanilla deep models tend to be heavily biased toward the majority classes. To address this problem, state-of-the-art methods usually adopt a mixture of experts (MoE) to focus on different parts of the long-tailed distribution. Experts in these methods are with the same model depth, which neglects the fact that different classes may have different preferences to be fit by models with different depths. To this end, we propose a novel MoE-based method called Self-Heterogeneous Integration with Knowledge Excavation (SHIKE). We first propose Depth-wise Knowledge Fusion (DKF) to fuse features between different shallow parts and the deep part in one network for each expert, which makes experts more diverse in terms of representation. Based on DKF, we further propose Dynamic Knowledge Transfer (DKT) to reduce the influence of the hardest negative class that has a non-negligible impact on the tail classes in our MoE framework. As a result, the classification accuracy of long-tailed data can be significantly improved, especially for the tail classes. SHIKE achieves the state-of-the-art performance of 56.3%, 60.3%, 75.4%, and 41.9% on CIFAR100-LT (IF100), ImageNet-LT, iNaturalist 2018, and Places-LT, respectively.

Time series forecasting always faces the challenge of concept drift, where data distributions evolve over time, leading to a decline in forecast model performance. Existing solutions are based on online learning, which continually organize recent time series observations as new training samples and update model parameters according to the forecasting feedback on recent data. However, they overlook a critical issue: obtaining ground-truth future values of each sample should be delayed until after the forecast horizon. This delay creates a temporal gap between the training samples and the test sample. Our empirical analysis reveals that the gap can introduce concept drift, causing forecast models to adapt to outdated concepts. In this paper, we present Proceed, a novel proactive model adaptation framework for online time series forecasting. Proceed first estimates the concept drift between the recently used training samples and the current test sample. It then employs an adaptation generator to efficiently translate the estimated drift into parameter adjustments, proactively adapting the model to the test sample. To enhance the generalization capability of the framework, Proceed is trained on synthetic diverse concept drifts. Extensive experiments on five real-world datasets across various forecast models demonstrate that Proceed brings more performance improvements than the state-of-the-art online learning methods, significantly facilitating forecast models' resilience against concept drifts. Code is available at https://github.com/SJTU-DMTai/OnlineTSF.

Background: Deep learning models are typically trained using stochastic gradient descent or one of its variants. These methods update the weights using their gradient, estimated from a small fraction of the training data. It has been observed that when using large batch sizes there is a persistent degradation in generalization performance - known as the "generalization gap" phenomena. Identifying the origin of this gap and closing it had remained an open problem. Contributions: We examine the initial high learning rate training phase. We find that the weight distance from its initialization grows logarithmically with the number of weight updates. We therefore propose a "random walk on random landscape" statistical model which is known to exhibit similar "ultra-slow" diffusion behavior. Following this hypothesis we conducted experiments to show empirically that the "generalization gap" stems from the relatively small number of updates rather than the batch size, and can be completely eliminated by adapting the training regime used. We further investigate different techniques to train models in the large-batch regime and present a novel algorithm named "Ghost Batch Normalization" which enables significant decrease in the generalization gap without increasing the number of updates. To validate our findings we conduct several additional experiments on MNIST, CIFAR-10, CIFAR-100 and ImageNet. Finally, we reassess common practices and beliefs concerning training of deep models and suggest they may not be optimal to achieve good generalization.

Training and evaluating autonomous driving algorithms requires a diverse range of scenarios. However, most available datasets predominantly consist of normal driving behaviors demonstrated by human drivers, resulting in a limited number of safety-critical cases. This imbalance, often referred to as a long-tail distribution, restricts the ability of driving algorithms to learn from crucial scenarios involving risk or failure, scenarios that are essential for humans to develop driving skills efficiently. To generate such scenarios, we utilize Multi-modal Large Language Models to convert crash reports of accidents into a structured scenario format, which can be directly executed within simulations. Specifically, we introduce CrashAgent, a multi-agent framework designed to interpret multi-modal real-world traffic crash reports for the generation of both road layouts and the behaviors of the ego vehicle and surrounding traffic participants. We comprehensively evaluate the generated crash scenarios from multiple perspectives, including the accuracy of layout reconstruction, collision rate, and diversity. The resulting high-quality and large-scale crash dataset will be publicly available to support the development of safe driving algorithms in handling safety-critical situations.

Although contrastive learning methods have shown prevailing performance on a variety of representation learning tasks, they encounter difficulty when the training dataset is long-tailed. Many researchers have combined contrastive learning and a logit adjustment technique to address this problem, but the combinations are done ad-hoc and a theoretical background has not yet been provided. The goal of this paper is to provide the background and further improve the performance. First, we show that the fundamental reason contrastive learning methods struggle with long-tailed tasks is that they try to maximize the mutual information maximization between latent features and input data. As ground-truth labels are not considered in the maximization, they are not able to address imbalances between class labels. Rather, we interpret the long-tailed recognition task as a mutual information maximization between latent features and ground-truth labels. This approach integrates contrastive learning and logit adjustment seamlessly to derive a loss function that shows state-of-the-art performance on long-tailed recognition benchmarks. It also demonstrates its efficacy in image segmentation tasks, verifying its versatility beyond image classification.

Large Vision-Language Models (LVLMs) have achieved significant progress in combining visual comprehension with language generation. Despite this success, the training data of LVLMs still suffers from Long-Tail (LT) problems, where the data distribution is highly imbalanced. Previous works have mainly focused on traditional VLM architectures, i.e., CLIP or ViT, and specific tasks such as recognition and classification. Nevertheless, the exploration of LVLM (e.g. LLaVA) and more general tasks (e.g. Visual Question Answering and Visual Reasoning) remains under-explored. In this paper, we first conduct an in-depth analysis of the LT issues in LVLMs and identify two core causes: the overrepresentation of head concepts and the underrepresentation of tail concepts. Based on the above observation, we propose an Adaptive Data Refinement Framework (ADR), which consists of two stages: Data Rebalancing (DR) and Data Synthesis (DS). In the DR stage, we adaptively rebalance the redundant data based on entity distributions, while in the DS stage, we leverage Denoising Diffusion Probabilistic Models (DDPMs) and scarce images to supplement underrepresented portions. Through comprehensive evaluations across eleven benchmarks, our proposed ADR effectively mitigates the long-tail problem in the training data, improving the average performance of LLaVA 1.5 relatively by 4.36%, without increasing the training data volume.

Marcinkiewicz strong law of large numbers, {n^{-frac1p}}sum_{k=1}^{n} (d_{k}- d)rightarrow 0 almost surely with pin(1,2), are developed for products d_k=prod_{r=1}^s x_k^{(r)}, where the x_k^{(r)} = sum_{l=-infty}^{infty}c_{k-l}^{(r)}xi_l^{(r)} are two-sided linear processes with coefficients {c_l^{(r)}}_{lin Z} and i.i.d. zero-mean innovations {xi_l^{(r)}}_{lin Z}. The decay of the coefficients c_l^{(r)} as |l|toinfty, can be slow enough for {x_k^{(r)}} to have long memory while {d_k} can have heavy tails. The long-range dependence and heavy tails for {d_k} are handled simultaneously and a decoupling property shows the convergence rate is dictated by the worst of long-range dependence and heavy tails, but not their combination. The Marcinkiewicz strong law of large numbers is also extended to the multivariate linear process case.

Extending the generation horizon of video diffusion models to long sequences remains a long-standing and important challenge. Existing training-free approaches fall into two categories: extensions of bidirectional models, which are tightly coupled to specific architectures and suffer from quality degradation over long horizons, and autoregressive models, which accumulate drift errors due to exposure bias and tend to produce repetitive motion patterns. To address these issues, we propose a novel but simple inference-time approach for long video generation that is architecture-agnostic and requires no additional training. Our method generates long videos via overlapping sliding windows, where predicted clean samples from adjacent windows are blended via Tweedie matching to enforce both manifold constraint and temporal consistency across overlap regions. Stochastic early-phase sampling then synchronizes per-window trajectories by injecting fresh noise after each Tweedie matching correction in the high-noise phase, before transitioning to deterministic ODE sampling to preserve fine-grained visual fidelity. Applied to various video generation models, our method generates videos several times longer than the native window length while outperforming both training-free and autoregressive baselines in temporal consistency and visual quality, and further extends to audio-video joint generation and text-to-3DGS without any fine-tuning.

Heavy-tail phenomena in stochastic gradient descent (SGD) have been reported in several empirical studies. Experimental evidence in previous works suggests a strong interplay between the heaviness of the tails and generalization behavior of SGD. To address this empirical phenomena theoretically, several works have made strong topological and statistical assumptions to link the generalization error to heavy tails. Very recently, new generalization bounds have been proven, indicating a non-monotonic relationship between the generalization error and heavy tails, which is more pertinent to the reported empirical observations. While these bounds do not require additional topological assumptions given that SGD can be modeled using a heavy-tailed stochastic differential equation (SDE), they can only apply to simple quadratic problems. In this paper, we build on this line of research and develop generalization bounds for a more general class of objective functions, which includes non-convex functions as well. Our approach is based on developing Wasserstein stability bounds for heavy-tailed SDEs and their discretizations, which we then convert to generalization bounds. Our results do not require any nontrivial assumptions; yet, they shed more light to the empirical observations, thanks to the generality of the loss functions.

Long-tailed classification poses a challenge due to its heavy imbalance in class probabilities and tail-sensitivity risks with asymmetric misprediction costs. Recent attempts have used re-balancing loss and ensemble methods, but they are largely heuristic and depend heavily on empirical results, lacking theoretical explanation. Furthermore, existing methods overlook the decision loss, which characterizes different costs associated with tailed classes. This paper presents a general and principled framework from a Bayesian-decision-theory perspective, which unifies existing techniques including re-balancing and ensemble methods, and provides theoretical justifications for their effectiveness. From this perspective, we derive a novel objective based on the integrated risk and a Bayesian deep-ensemble approach to improve the accuracy of all classes, especially the "tail". Besides, our framework allows for task-adaptive decision loss which provides provably optimal decisions in varying task scenarios, along with the capability to quantify uncertainty. Finally, We conduct comprehensive experiments, including standard classification, tail-sensitive classification with a new False Head Rate metric, calibration, and ablation studies. Our framework significantly improves the current SOTA even on large-scale real-world datasets like ImageNet.

Learning the tail behavior of a distribution is a notoriously difficult problem. By definition, the number of samples from the tail is small, and deep generative models, such as normalizing flows, tend to concentrate on learning the body of the distribution. In this paper, we focus on improving the ability of normalizing flows to correctly capture the tail behavior and, thus, form more accurate models. We prove that the marginal tailedness of an autoregressive flow can be controlled via the tailedness of the marginals of its base distribution. This theoretical insight leads us to a novel type of flows based on flexible base distributions and data-driven linear layers. An empirical analysis shows that the proposed method improves on the accuracy -- especially on the tails of the distribution -- and is able to generate heavy-tailed data. We demonstrate its application on a weather and climate example, in which capturing the tail behavior is essential.

Temperature scaling is a popular technique for tuning the sharpness of a model distribution. It is used extensively for sampling likely generations and calibrating model uncertainty, and even features as a controllable parameter to many large language models in deployment. However, autoregressive models rely on myopic temperature scaling that greedily optimizes the next token. To address this, we propose Long Horizon Temperature Scaling (LHTS), a novel approach for sampling from temperature-scaled joint distributions. LHTS is compatible with all likelihood-based models, and optimizes for the long-horizon likelihood of samples. We derive a temperature-dependent LHTS objective, and show that fine-tuning a model on a range of temperatures produces a single model capable of generation with a controllable long-horizon temperature parameter. We experiment with LHTS on image diffusion models and character/language autoregressive models, demonstrating advantages over myopic temperature scaling in likelihood and sample quality, and showing improvements in accuracy on a multiple choice analogy task by 10%.

As long-horizon coding agents produce more code than any developer can review, oversight collapses onto a single surface: the automated test suite. Reward hacking naturally arises in this setup, as the agent optimizes for passing tests while deviating from the users true goal. We study this reward hacking phenomenon by decompose software engineering tasks into three parts: (i) a natural language description of the specification (ii) visible validation tests that exercise specified features in isolation, and (iii) held-out tests that compose those same features to simulate real-world usage. Based on the specification and the visible validation test suites, a genuine agent would be able to generate a solution that can also pass all of the held-out tests. Therefore we use the gap in pass rates on these two suites to quantify reward hacking. Based on this methodology, we introduce SpecBench, a benchmark comprising 30 systems-level programming tasks ranging from short horizon tasks like building a JSON parser to ultra long horizon tasks like building an entire OS kernel from scratch. Large-scale experiments reveal a consistent pattern: while every frontier agent saturates the visible suite, reward hacking persists, with smaller models exhibiting larger gaps on holdout suites. The gap also scales sharply with task length: it grows by 28 percentage points for every tenfold increase in code size. Failures range from subtle feature isolation to deliberate exploits, including a 2,900-line hash-table "compiler" that memorizes test inputs. SpecBench offers a principled testbed for measuring whether coding agents build genuine working systems or merely game the test suites developers hand them.

Conformal prediction is a theoretically grounded framework for constructing predictive intervals. We study conformal prediction with missing values in the covariates -- a setting that brings new challenges to uncertainty quantification. We first show that the marginal coverage guarantee of conformal prediction holds on imputed data for any missingness distribution and almost all imputation functions. However, we emphasize that the average coverage varies depending on the pattern of missing values: conformal methods tend to construct prediction intervals that under-cover the response conditionally to some missing patterns. This motivates our novel generalized conformalized quantile regression framework, missing data augmentation, which yields prediction intervals that are valid conditionally to the patterns of missing values, despite their exponential number. We then show that a universally consistent quantile regression algorithm trained on the imputed data is Bayes optimal for the pinball risk, thus achieving valid coverage conditionally to any given data point. Moreover, we examine the case of a linear model, which demonstrates the importance of our proposal in overcoming the heteroskedasticity induced by missing values. Using synthetic and data from critical care, we corroborate our theory and report improved performance of our methods.

Recent advances in deep learning have driven rapid progress in time series forecasting, yet many state-of-the-art models continue to struggle with robust performance in real-world applications, even when they achieve strong results on standard benchmark datasets. This persistent gap can be attributed to the black-box nature of deep learning architectures and the inherent limitations of current evaluation frameworks, which frequently lack the capacity to provide clear, quantitative insights into the specific strengths and weaknesses of different models, thereby complicating the selection of appropriate models for particular forecasting scenarios. To address these issues, we propose a synthetic data-driven evaluation paradigm, SynTSBench, that systematically assesses fundamental modeling capabilities of time series forecasting models through programmable feature configuration. Our framework isolates confounding factors and establishes an interpretable evaluation system with three core analytical dimensions: (1) temporal feature decomposition and capability mapping, which enables systematic evaluation of model capacities to learn specific pattern types; (2) robustness analysis under data irregularities, which quantifies noise tolerance thresholds and anomaly recovery capabilities; and (3) theoretical optimum benchmarking, which establishes performance boundaries for each pattern type-enabling direct comparison between model predictions and mathematical optima. Our experiments show that current deep learning models do not universally approach optimal baselines across all types of temporal features.The code is available at https://github.com/TanQitai/SynTSBench

With a strong understanding of the target domain from natural language, we produce promising results in translating across large domain gaps and bringing skeletons back to life. In this work, we use text-guided latent diffusion models for zero-shot image-to-image translation (I2I) across large domain gaps (longI2I), where large amounts of new visual features and new geometry need to be generated to enter the target domain. Being able to perform translations across large domain gaps has a wide variety of real-world applications in criminology, astrology, environmental conservation, and paleontology. In this work, we introduce a new task Skull2Animal for translating between skulls and living animals. On this task, we find that unguided Generative Adversarial Networks (GANs) are not capable of translating across large domain gaps. Instead of these traditional I2I methods, we explore the use of guided diffusion and image editing models and provide a new benchmark model, Revive-2I, capable of performing zero-shot I2I via text-prompting latent diffusion models. We find that guidance is necessary for longI2I because, to bridge the large domain gap, prior knowledge about the target domain is needed. In addition, we find that prompting provides the best and most scalable information about the target domain as classifier-guided diffusion models require retraining for specific use cases and lack stronger constraints on the target domain because of the wide variety of images they are trained on.

Major advancements have been made in the field of object detection and segmentation recently. However, when it comes to rare categories, the state-of-the-art methods fail to detect them, resulting in a significant performance gap between rare and frequent categories. In this paper, we identify that Sigmoid or Softmax functions used in deep detectors are a major reason for low performance and are sub-optimal for long-tailed detection and segmentation. To address this, we develop a Gumbel Optimized Loss (GOL), for long-tailed detection and segmentation. It aligns with the Gumbel distribution of rare classes in imbalanced datasets, considering the fact that most classes in long-tailed detection have low expected probability. The proposed GOL significantly outperforms the best state-of-the-art method by 1.1% on AP , and boosts the overall segmentation by 9.0% and detection by 8.0%, particularly improving detection of rare classes by 20.3%, compared to Mask-RCNN, on LVIS dataset. Code available at: https://github.com/kostas1515/GOL

Autoregressive (AR) video diffusion enables variable-length synthesis, but long-horizon generation often suffers from accumulated errors and identity drift. For efficiency, existing methods commonly adopt sliding-window attention during generation. This creates an irreversible generation trajectory: once the active window accumulates appearance errors, subsequent generations can only condition on this degraded trajectory and drift further away. We address this limitation by formulating long video generation as a retrieval-augmented generation (RAG) problem. Rather than relying solely on the recent window, we treat previously generated latents as a dynamic, searchable history. We propose LongLive-RAG, a general retrieval framework for AR video generation. At each new block, LongLive-RAG uses a query embedding to retrieve relevant historical latents. This lightweight retrieval step adds only a small overhead relative to generation and lets the generator condition on non-local context instead of only the recent window. To make retrieval more discriminative, we introduce the Window Temporal Delta Loss that suppresses redundant local similarity and encourages embeddings to capture meaningful temporal changes. Together, these components help reduce error accumulation caused by sliding-window attention. Experiments across multiple AR backbones and generation lengths show improved long-video quality and the best average VBench-Long rank. To our knowledge, among open-ended AR long video generation methods, LongLive-RAG is the first to formulate self-generated latent history as content-addressable retrieval memory. Code is available at https://github.com/qixinhu11/LongLive-RAG.

LLM serving systems process heterogeneous query workloads where different categories exhibit different characteristics. Code queries cluster densely in embedding space while conversational queries distribute sparsely. Content staleness varies from minutes (stock data) to months (code patterns). Query repetition patterns range from power-law (code) to uniform (conversation), producing long tail cache hit rate distributions: high-repetition categories achieve 40-60% hit rates while low-repetition or volatile categories achieve 5-15% hit rates. Vector databases must exclude the long tail because remote search costs (30ms) require 15--20% hit rates to break even, leaving 20-30% of production traffic uncached. Uniform cache policies compound this problem: fixed thresholds cause false positives in dense spaces and miss valid paraphrases in sparse spaces; fixed TTLs waste memory or serve stale data. This paper presents category-aware semantic caching where similarity thresholds, TTLs, and quotas vary by query category. We present a hybrid architecture separating in-memory HNSW search from external document storage, reducing miss cost from 30ms to 2ms. This reduction makes low-hit-rate categories economically viable (break-even at 3-5% versus 15-20%), enabling cache coverage across the entire workload distribution. Adaptive load-based policies extend this framework to respond to downstream model load, dynamically adjusting thresholds and TTLs to reduce traffic to overloaded models by 9-17% in theoretical projections.

Deep generative models are routinely used in generating samples from complex, high-dimensional distributions. Despite their apparent successes, their statistical properties are not well understood. A common assumption is that with enough training data and sufficiently large neural networks, deep generative model samples will have arbitrarily small errors in sampling from any continuous target distribution. We set up a unifying framework that debunks this belief. We demonstrate that broad classes of deep generative models, including variational autoencoders and generative adversarial networks, are not universal generators. Under the predominant case of Gaussian latent variables, these models can only generate concentrated samples that exhibit light tails. Using tools from concentration of measure and convex geometry, we give analogous results for more general log-concave and strongly log-concave latent variable distributions. We extend our results to diffusion models via a reduction argument. We use the Gromov--Levy inequality to give similar guarantees when the latent variables lie on manifolds with positive Ricci curvature. These results shed light on the limited capacity of common deep generative models to handle heavy tails. We illustrate the empirical relevance of our work with simulations and financial data.

Long-tailed class distributions pose a significant challenge for multi-label chest X-ray (CXR) classification, where rare but clinically important findings are severely underrepresented. In this work, we present a systematic empirical evaluation of loss functions, CNN backbone architectures and post-training strategies on the CXR-LT 2026 benchmark, comprising approximately 143K images with 30 disease labels from PadChest. Our experiments demonstrate that LDAM with deferred re-weighting (LDAM-DRW) consistently outperforms standard BCE and asymmetric losses for rare class recognition. Amongst the architectures evaluated, ConvNeXt-Large achieves the best single-model performance with 0.5220 mAP and 0.3765 F1 on our development set, whilst classifier re-training and test-time augmentation further improve ranking metrics. On the official test leaderboard, our submission achieved 0.3950 mAP, ranking 5th amongst all 68 participating teams with total of 1528 submissions. We provide a candid analysis of the development-to-test performance gap and discuss practical insights for handling class imbalance in clinical imaging settings. Code is available at https://github.com/Nikhil-Rao20/Long_Tail.

Long-tailed image classification remains a long-standing challenge, as real-world data typically follow highly imbalanced distributions where a few head classes dominate and many tail classes contain only limited samples. This imbalance biases feature learning toward head categories and leads to significant degradation on rare classes. Although recent studies have proposed re-sampling, re-weighting, and decoupled learning strategies, the improvement on the most underrepresented classes still remains marginal compared with overall accuracy. In this work, we present a confusion-centric perspective for long-tailed recognition that explicitly focuses on worst-class generalization. We first establish a new theoretical framework of class-specific error analysis, which shows that the worst-class error can be tightly upper-bounded by the spectral norm of the frequency-weighted confusion matrix and a model-dependent complexity term. Guided by this insight, we propose the Confusion-Aware Spectral Regularizer (CAR) that minimizes the spectral norm of the confusion matrix during training to reduce inter-class confusion and enhance tail-class generalization. To enable stable and efficient optimization, CAR integrates a Differentiable Confusion Matrix Surrogate and an EMA-based Confusion Estimator to maintain smooth and low-variance estimates across mini-batches. Extensive experiments across multiple long-tailed benchmarks demonstrates that CAR substantially improves both worst-class accuracy and overall performance. When combined with ConCutMix augmentation, CAR consistently surpasses exisiting state-of-the-art long-tailed learning methods under both the training-from-scratch setting (by 2.37% ~ 4.83%) and the fine-tuning-from-pretrained setting (by 2.42% ~ 4.17%) across ImageNet-LT, CIFAR100-LT, and iNaturalist datasets.

With an ever-increasing availability of data, it has become more and more challenging to select and label appropriate samples for the training of machine learning models. It is especially difficult to detect long-tail classes of interest in large amounts of unlabeled data. This holds especially true for Intelligent Transportation Systems (ITS), where vehicle fleets and roadside perception systems generate an abundance of raw data. While industrial, proprietary data engines for such iterative data selection and model training processes exist, researchers and the open-source community suffer from a lack of an openly available system. We present the Mcity Data Engine, which provides modules for the complete data-based development cycle, beginning at the data acquisition phase and ending at the model deployment stage. The Mcity Data Engine focuses on rare and novel classes through an open-vocabulary data selection process. All code is publicly available on GitHub under an MIT license: https://github.com/mcity/mcity_data_engine

We develop an econometric framework integrating heavy-tailed Student's t distributions with behavioral probability weighting while preserving infinite divisibility. Using 432{,}752 observations across 86 assets (2004--2024), we demonstrate Student's t specifications outperform Gaussian models in 88.4\% of cases. Bounded probability-weighting transformations preserve mathematical properties required for dynamic pricing. Gaussian models underestimate 99\% Value-at-Risk by 19.7\% versus 3.2\% for our specification. Joint estimation procedures identify tail and behavioral parameters with established asymptotic properties. Results provide robust inference for asset-pricing applications where heavy tails and behavioral distortions coexist.

This paper investigates the problem of generalized linear bandits with heavy-tailed rewards, whose (1+epsilon)-th moment is bounded for some epsilonin (0,1]. Although there exist methods for generalized linear bandits, most of them focus on bounded or sub-Gaussian rewards and are not well-suited for many real-world scenarios, such as financial markets and web-advertising. To address this issue, we propose two novel algorithms based on truncation and mean of medians. These algorithms achieve an almost optimal regret bound of O(dT^{1{1+epsilon}}), where d is the dimension of contextual information and T is the time horizon. Our truncation-based algorithm supports online learning, distinguishing it from existing truncation-based approaches. Additionally, our mean-of-medians-based algorithm requires only O(log T) rewards and one estimator per epoch, making it more practical. Moreover, our algorithms improve the regret bounds by a logarithmic factor compared to existing algorithms when epsilon=1. Numerical experimental results confirm the merits of our algorithms.

Meta-learning has emerged as an effective methodology to model several real-world tasks and problems due to its extraordinary effectiveness in the low-data regime. There are many scenarios ranging from the classification of rare diseases to language modelling of uncommon languages where the availability of large datasets is rare. Similarly, for more broader scenarios like self-driving, an autonomous vehicle needs to be trained to handle every situation well. This requires training the ML model on a variety of tasks with good quality data. But often times, we find that the data distribution across various tasks is skewed, i.e.the data follows a long-tail distribution. This leads to the model performing well on some tasks and not performing so well on others leading to model robustness issues. Meta-learning has recently emerged as a potential learning paradigm which can effectively learn from one task and generalize that learning to unseen tasks. In this study, we aim to exploit external knowledge of task relations to improve training stability via effective mini-batching of tasks. We hypothesize that selecting a diverse set of tasks in a mini-batch will lead to a better estimate of the full gradient and hence will lead to a reduction of noise in training.

Long-tailed recognition has benefited from foundation models and fine-tuning paradigms, yet existing studies and benchmarks are mainly confined to natural image domains, where pre-training and fine-tuning data share similar distributions. In contrast, scientific images exhibit distinct visual characteristics and supervision signals, raising questions about the effectiveness of fine-tuning foundation models in such settings. In this work, we investigate scientific long-tailed recognition under a purely visual and parameter-efficient fine-tuning (PEFT) paradigm. Experiments on three scientific benchmarks show that fine-tuning foundation models yields limited gains, and reveal that penultimate-layer features play an important role, particularly for tail classes. Motivated by these findings, we propose SciLT, a framework that exploits multi-level representations through adaptive feature fusion and dual-supervision learning. By jointly leveraging penultimate- and final-layer features, SciLT achieves balanced performance across head and tail classes. Extensive experiments demonstrate that SciLT consistently outperforms existing methods, establishing a strong and practical baseline for scientific long-tailed recognition and providing valuable guidance for adapting foundation models to scientific data with substantial domain shifts.

We present a method for joint alignment of sparse in-the-wild image collections of an object category. Most prior works assume either ground-truth keypoint annotations or a large dataset of images of a single object category. However, neither of the above assumptions hold true for the long-tail of the objects present in the world. We present a self-supervised technique that directly optimizes on a sparse collection of images of a particular object/object category to obtain consistent dense correspondences across the collection. We use pairwise nearest neighbors obtained from deep features of a pre-trained vision transformer (ViT) model as noisy and sparse keypoint matches and make them dense and accurate matches by optimizing a neural network that jointly maps the image collection into a learned canonical grid. Experiments on CUB and SPair-71k benchmarks demonstrate that our method can produce globally consistent and higher quality correspondences across the image collection when compared to existing self-supervised methods. Code and other material will be made available at https://kampta.github.io/asic.

Long-term forecasting presents unique challenges due to the time and memory complexity of handling long sequences. Existing methods, which rely on sliding windows to process long sequences, struggle to effectively capture long-term variations that are partially caught within the short window (i.e., outer-window variations). In this paper, we introduce a novel approach that overcomes this limitation by employing contrastive learning and enhanced decomposition architecture, specifically designed to focus on long-term variations. To this end, our contrastive loss incorporates global autocorrelation held in the whole time series, which facilitates the construction of positive and negative pairs in a self-supervised manner. When combined with our decomposition networks, our contrastive learning significantly improves long-term forecasting performance. Extensive experiments demonstrate that our approach outperforms 14 baseline models in multiple experiments over nine long-term benchmarks, especially in challenging scenarios that require a significantly long output for forecasting. Source code is available at https://github.com/junwoopark92/Self-Supervised-Contrastive-Forecsating.

Classification on long-tailed distributed data is a challenging problem, which suffers from serious class-imbalance and accordingly unpromising performance especially on tail classes. Recently, the ensembling based methods achieve the state-of-the-art performance and show great potential. However, there are two limitations for current methods. First, their predictions are not trustworthy for failure-sensitive applications. This is especially harmful for the tail classes where the wrong predictions is basically frequent. Second, they assign unified numbers of experts to all samples, which is redundant for easy samples with excessive computational cost. To address these issues, we propose a Trustworthy Long-tailed Classification (TLC) method to jointly conduct classification and uncertainty estimation to identify hard samples in a multi-expert framework. Our TLC obtains the evidence-based uncertainty (EvU) and evidence for each expert, and then combines these uncertainties and evidences under the Dempster-Shafer Evidence Theory (DST). Moreover, we propose a dynamic expert engagement to reduce the number of engaged experts for easy samples and achieve efficiency while maintaining promising performances. Finally, we conduct comprehensive experiments on the tasks of classification, tail detection, OOD detection and failure prediction. The experimental results show that the proposed TLC outperforms existing methods and is trustworthy with reliable uncertainty.

Whether physics foundation models can be usefully deployed on laboratory experiments remains an open question for scientific machine learning (ML). We test this question on the Rayleigh-Taylor instability (RTI), a ubiquitous and demanding fluid instability seen from tabletop flows to supernova explosions, in which small perturbations at a density interface grow into chaotic, multiscale mixing as a lighter fluid accelerates into a heavier one. Standard ML models struggle with RTI, and despite over a century of theoretical, numerical, and experimental work, it carries an unresolved discrepancy between simulation and experiment: the late-time mixing growth rate, α, measured in most laboratory experiments (sim 0.06-0.07), is roughly three times the value from idealized direct numerical simulations (DNS, sim 0.02). The gap's origin remains debated. These properties make RTI a stringent test for a question that matters well beyond RTI: can foundation models trained only on simulations generalise to sparse, messy, and noisy laboratory settings? We finetune Walrus, a foundation model for continuum dynamics, on three or fewer DNS realizations and recover key RTI physics over long rollouts. Applied zero-shot to sliding-barrier laboratory data, the finetuned model leaves the DNS-like regime and enters the observed growth band, having never seen a single experimental sample. These results provide independent, data-driven evidence that initial conditions play a crucial role in the longstanding sim-experiment gap in α. The model also generalises zero-shot to stable stratification, a buoyancy regime absent from training, correctly slowing mixing-layer growth. Together, our results show that foundation models can generalise well beyond their training data, predicting laboratory behavior and unseen physical regimes, opening new ways to probe longstanding simulation-experiment gaps.

The internet contains a wealth of knowledge -- from the birthdays of historical figures to tutorials on how to code -- all of which may be learned by language models. However, there is a huge variability in the number of times a given piece of information appears on the web. In this paper, we study the relationship between the knowledge memorized by large language models and the information in their pre-training datasets. In particular, we show that a language model's ability to answer a fact-based question relates to how many documents associated with that question were seen during pre-training. We identify these relevant documents by entity linking pre-training datasets and counting documents that contain the same entities as a given question-answer pair. Our results demonstrate strong correlational and causal relationships between accuracy and relevant document count for numerous question answering datasets (e.g., TriviaQA), pre-training corpora (e.g., ROOTS), and model sizes (e.g., 176B parameters). Moreover, we find that while larger models are better at learning long-tail knowledge, we estimate that today's models must be scaled by many orders of magnitude to reach competitive QA performance on questions with little support in the pre-training data. Finally, we show that retrieval-augmentation can reduce the dependence on relevant document count, presenting a promising approach for capturing the long-tail.

Data collected from the real world typically exhibit long-tailed distributions, where frequent classes contain abundant data while rare ones have only a limited number of samples. While existing supervised learning approaches have been proposed to tackle such data imbalance, the requirement of label supervision would limit their applicability to real-world scenarios in which label annotation might not be available. Without the access to class labels nor the associated class frequencies, we propose Frequency-Aware Self-Supervised Learning (FASSL) in this paper. Targeting at learning from unlabeled data with inherent long-tailed distributions, the goal of FASSL is to produce discriminative feature representations for downstream classification tasks. In FASSL, we first learn frequency-aware prototypes, reflecting the associated long-tailed distribution. Particularly focusing on rare-class samples, the relationships between image data and the derived prototypes are further exploited with the introduced self-supervised learning scheme. Experiments on long-tailed image datasets quantitatively and qualitatively verify the effectiveness of our learning scheme.

In recent years, there have been remarkable advancements in the performance of Transformer-based Large Language Models (LLMs) across various domains. As these LLMs are deployed for increasingly complex tasks, they often face the needs to conduct longer reasoning processes or understanding larger contexts. In these situations, the length generalization failure of LLMs on long sequences become more prominent. Most pre-training schemes truncate training sequences to a fixed length (such as 2048 for LLaMa). LLMs often struggle to generate fluent texts, let alone carry out downstream tasks, after longer contexts, even with relative positional encoding which is designed to cope with this problem. Common solutions such as finetuning on longer corpora often involves daunting hardware and time costs and requires careful training process design. To more efficiently leverage the generation capacity of existing LLMs, we theoretically and empirically investigate the main out-of-distribution (OOD) factors contributing to this problem. Inspired by this diagnosis, we propose a simple yet effective solution for on-the-fly length generalization, LM-Infinite, which involves only a Lambda-shaped attention mask and a distance limit while requiring no parameter updates or learning. We find it applicable to a variety of LLMs using relative-position encoding methods. LM-Infinite is computational efficient with O(n) time and space, and demonstrates consistent fluency and generation quality to as long as 32k tokens on ArXiv and OpenWebText2 datasets, with 2.72x decoding speedup. On downstream task such as passkey retrieval, it continues to work on inputs much longer than training lengths where vanilla models fail immediately.

The rapid advancement of text-to-image (T2I) diffusion models has enabled them to generate unprecedented results from given texts. However, as text inputs become longer, existing encoding methods like CLIP face limitations, and aligning the generated images with long texts becomes challenging. To tackle these issues, we propose LongAlign, which includes a segment-level encoding method for processing long texts and a decomposed preference optimization method for effective alignment training. For segment-level encoding, long texts are divided into multiple segments and processed separately. This method overcomes the maximum input length limits of pretrained encoding models. For preference optimization, we provide decomposed CLIP-based preference models to fine-tune diffusion models. Specifically, to utilize CLIP-based preference models for T2I alignment, we delve into their scoring mechanisms and find that the preference scores can be decomposed into two components: a text-relevant part that measures T2I alignment and a text-irrelevant part that assesses other visual aspects of human preference. Additionally, we find that the text-irrelevant part contributes to a common overfitting problem during fine-tuning. To address this, we propose a reweighting strategy that assigns different weights to these two components, thereby reducing overfitting and enhancing alignment. After fine-tuning 512 times 512 Stable Diffusion (SD) v1.5 for about 20 hours using our method, the fine-tuned SD outperforms stronger foundation models in T2I alignment, such as PixArt-alpha and Kandinsky v2.2. The code is available at https://github.com/luping-liu/LongAlign.

Despite the success of deep neural networks, there are still many challenges in deep representation learning due to the data scarcity issues such as data imbalance, unseen distribution, and domain shift. To address the above-mentioned issues, a variety of methods have been devised to explore the sample relationships in a vanilla way (i.e., from the perspectives of either the input or the loss function), failing to explore the internal structure of deep neural networks for learning with sample relationships. Inspired by this, we propose to enable deep neural networks themselves with the ability to learn the sample relationships from each mini-batch. Specifically, we introduce a batch transformer module or BatchFormer, which is then applied into the batch dimension of each mini-batch to implicitly explore sample relationships during training. By doing this, the proposed method enables the collaboration of different samples, e.g., the head-class samples can also contribute to the learning of the tail classes for long-tailed recognition. Furthermore, to mitigate the gap between training and testing, we share the classifier between with or without the BatchFormer during training, which can thus be removed during testing. We perform extensive experiments on over ten datasets and the proposed method achieves significant improvements on different data scarcity applications without any bells and whistles, including the tasks of long-tailed recognition, compositional zero-shot learning, domain generalization, and contrastive learning. Code will be made publicly available at https://github.com/zhihou7/BatchFormer.

Modern deep neural networks (DNNs) represent a formidable challenge for theorists: according to the commonly accepted probabilistic framework that describes their performance, these architectures should overfit due to the huge number of parameters to train, but in practice they do not. Here we employ results from replica mean field theory to compute the generalisation gap of machine learning models with quenched features, in the teacher-student scenario and for regression problems with quadratic loss function. Notably, this framework includes the case of DNNs where the last layer is optimised given a specific realisation of the remaining weights. We show how these results -- combined with ideas from statistical learning theory -- provide a stringent asymptotic upper bound on the generalisation gap of fully trained DNN as a function of the size of the dataset P. In particular, in the limit of large P and N_{out} (where N_out is the size of the last layer) and N_out ll P, the generalisation gap approaches zero faster than 2 N_out/P, for any choice of both architecture and teacher function. Notably, this result greatly improves existing bounds from statistical learning theory. We test our predictions on a broad range of architectures, from toy fully-connected neural networks with few hidden layers to state-of-the-art deep convolutional neural networks.

Class-wise characteristics of training examples affect the performance of deep classifiers. A well-studied example is when the number of training examples of classes follows a long-tailed distribution, a situation that is likely to yield sub-optimal performance for under-represented classes. This class imbalance problem is conventionally addressed by approaches relying on the class-wise cardinality of training examples, such as data resampling. In this paper, we demonstrate that considering solely the cardinality of classes does not cover all issues causing class imbalance. To measure class imbalance, we propose "Class Uncertainty" as the average predictive uncertainty of the training examples, and we show that this novel measure captures the differences across classes better than cardinality. We also curate SVCI-20 as a novel dataset in which the classes have equal number of training examples but they differ in terms of their hardness; thereby causing a type of class imbalance which cannot be addressed by the approaches relying on cardinality. We incorporate our "Class Uncertainty" measure into a diverse set of ten class imbalance mitigation methods to demonstrate its effectiveness on long-tailed datasets as well as on our SVCI-20. Code and datasets will be made available.

In this work, we empirically show that updating pretrained LMs (350M, 1.3B, 2.7B) with just a few steps of Gradient Ascent Post-training (GAP) on random, unlabeled text corpora enhances its zero-shot generalization capabilities across diverse NLP tasks. Specifically, we show that GAP can allow LMs to become comparable to 2-3x times larger LMs across 12 different NLP tasks. We also show that applying GAP on out-of-distribution corpora leads to the most reliable performance improvements. Our findings indicate that GAP can be a promising method for improving the generalization capability of LMs without any task-specific fine-tuning.

Although deep neural networks achieve tremendous success on various classification tasks, the generalization ability drops sheer when training datasets exhibit long-tailed distributions. One of the reasons is that the learned representations (i.e. features) from the imbalanced datasets are less effective than those from balanced datasets. Specifically, the learned representation under class-balanced distribution will present the Neural Collapse (NC) phenomena. NC indicates the features from the same category are close to each other and from different categories are maximally distant, showing an optimal linear separable state of classification. However, the pattern differs on imbalanced datasets and is partially responsible for the reduced performance of the model. In this work, we propose two explicit feature regularization terms to learn high-quality representation for class-imbalanced data. With the proposed regularization, NC phenomena will appear under the class-imbalanced distribution, and the generalization ability can be significantly improved. Our method is easily implemented, highly effective, and can be plugged into most existing methods. The extensive experimental results on widely-used benchmarks show the effectiveness of our method

In this paper, we introduce a novel approach for bounding the cumulant generating function (CGF) of a Dirichlet process (DP) X sim DP(αν_0), using superadditivity. In particular, our key technical contribution is the demonstration of the superadditivity of αmapsto log E_{X sim DP(αν_0)}[exp( E_X[αf])], where E_X[f] = int f dX. This result, combined with Fekete's lemma and Varadhan's integral lemma, converts the known asymptotic large deviation principle into a practical upper bound on the CGF logE_{Xsim DP(αν_0)}{exp(E_{X}{[f]})} for any α> 0. The bound is given by the convex conjugate of the scaled reversed Kullback-Leibler divergence αKL(ν_0Vert cdot). This new bound provides particularly effective confidence regions for sums of independent DPs, making it applicable across various fields.

In many real-world applications, deep neural networks are retrained from scratch as a dataset grows in size. Given the computational expense for retraining networks, it has been argued that continual learning could make updating networks more efficient. An obstacle to achieving this goal is the stability gap, which refers to an observation that when updating on new data, performance on previously learned data degrades before recovering. Addressing this problem would enable learning new data with fewer network updates, resulting in increased computational efficiency. We study how to mitigate the stability gap. We test a variety of hypotheses to understand why the stability gap occurs. This leads us to discover a method that vastly reduces this gap. In large-scale class incremental learning experiments, we are able to significantly reduce the number of network updates needed for continual learning. Our work has the potential to advance the state-of-the-art in continual learning for real-world applications along with reducing the carbon footprint required to maintain updated neural networks.

Forecasting multiple future events within a given time horizon is essential for applications in finance, retail, social networks, and healthcare. Marked Temporal Point Processes (MTPP) provide a principled framework to model both the timing and labels of events. However, most existing research focuses on predicting only the next event, leaving long-horizon forecasting largely underexplored. To address this gap, we introduce HoTPP, the first benchmark specifically designed to rigorously evaluate long-horizon predictions. We identify shortcomings in widely used evaluation metrics, propose a theoretically grounded T-mAP metric, present strong statistical baselines, and offer efficient implementations of popular models. Our empirical results demonstrate that modern MTPP approaches often underperform simple statistical baselines. Furthermore, we analyze the diversity of predicted sequences and find that most methods exhibit mode collapse. Finally, we analyze the impact of autoregression and intensity-based losses on prediction quality, and outline promising directions for future research. The HoTPP source code, hyperparameters, and full evaluation results are available at GitHub.

We propose an embarrassingly simple method -- instance-aware repeat factor sampling (IRFS) to address the problem of imbalanced data in long-tailed object detection. Imbalanced datasets in real-world object detection often suffer from a large disparity in the number of instances for each class. To improve the generalization performance of object detection models on rare classes, various data sampling techniques have been proposed. Repeat factor sampling (RFS) has shown promise due to its simplicity and effectiveness. Despite its efficiency, RFS completely neglects the instance counts and solely relies on the image count during re-sampling process. However, instance count may immensely vary for different classes with similar image counts. Such variation highlights the importance of both image and instance for addressing the long-tail distributions. Thus, we propose IRFS which unifies instance and image counts for the re-sampling process to be aware of different perspectives of the imbalance in long-tailed datasets. Our method shows promising results on the challenging LVIS v1.0 benchmark dataset over various architectures and backbones, demonstrating their effectiveness in improving the performance of object detection models on rare classes with a relative +50% average precision (AP) improvement over counterpart RFS. IRFS can serve as a strong baseline and be easily incorporated into existing long-tailed frameworks.

Web-crawled pretraining datasets underlie the impressive "zero-shot" evaluation performance of multimodal models, such as CLIP for classification/retrieval and Stable-Diffusion for image generation. However, it is unclear how meaningful the notion of "zero-shot" generalization is for such multimodal models, as it is not known to what extent their pretraining datasets encompass the downstream concepts targeted for during "zero-shot" evaluation. In this work, we ask: How is the performance of multimodal models on downstream concepts influenced by the frequency of these concepts in their pretraining datasets? We comprehensively investigate this question across 34 models and five standard pretraining datasets (CC-3M, CC-12M, YFCC-15M, LAION-400M, LAION-Aesthetics), generating over 300GB of data artifacts. We consistently find that, far from exhibiting "zero-shot" generalization, multimodal models require exponentially more data to achieve linear improvements in downstream "zero-shot" performance, following a sample inefficient log-linear scaling trend. This trend persists even when controlling for sample-level similarity between pretraining and downstream datasets, and testing on purely synthetic data distributions. Furthermore, upon benchmarking models on long-tailed data sampled based on our analysis, we demonstrate that multimodal models across the board perform poorly. We contribute this long-tail test set as the "Let it Wag!" benchmark to further research in this direction. Taken together, our study reveals an exponential need for training data which implies that the key to "zero-shot" generalization capabilities under large-scale training paradigms remains to be found.

Recent progress in neural forecasting accelerated improvements in the performance of large-scale forecasting systems. Yet, long-horizon forecasting remains a very difficult task. Two common challenges afflicting the task are the volatility of the predictions and their computational complexity. We introduce N-HiTS, a model which addresses both challenges by incorporating novel hierarchical interpolation and multi-rate data sampling techniques. These techniques enable the proposed method to assemble its predictions sequentially, emphasizing components with different frequencies and scales while decomposing the input signal and synthesizing the forecast. We prove that the hierarchical interpolation technique can efficiently approximate arbitrarily long horizons in the presence of smoothness. Additionally, we conduct extensive large-scale dataset experiments from the long-horizon forecasting literature, demonstrating the advantages of our method over the state-of-the-art methods, where N-HiTS provides an average accuracy improvement of almost 20% over the latest Transformer architectures while reducing the computation time by an order of magnitude (50 times). Our code is available at bit.ly/3VA5DoT

Intermittent demand forecasting poses unique challenges due to sparse observations, cold-start items, and obsolescence. Classical models such as Croston, SBA, and the Teunter-Syntetos-Babai (TSB) method provide simple heuristics but lack a principled generative foundation. Deep learning models address these limitations but often require large datasets and sacrifice interpretability. We introduce TSB-HB, a hierarchical Bayesian extension of TSB. Demand occurrence is modeled with a Beta-Binomial distribution, while nonzero demand sizes follow a Log-Normal distribution. Crucially, hierarchical priors enable partial pooling across items, stabilizing estimates for sparse or cold-start series while preserving heterogeneity. This framework yields a fully generative and interpretable model that generalizes classical exponential smoothing. On the UCI Online Retail dataset, TSB-HB achieves lower RMSE and RMSSE than Croston, SBA, TSB, ADIDA, IMAPA, ARIMA and Theta, and on a subset of the M5 dataset it outperforms all classical baselines we evaluate. The model provides calibrated probabilistic forecasts and improved accuracy on intermittent and lumpy items by combining a generative formulation with hierarchical shrinkage, while remaining interpretable and scalable.

Diffusion models have revolutionized image and video generation, achieving unprecedented visual quality. However, their reliance on transformer architectures incurs prohibitively high computational costs, particularly when extending generation to long videos. Recent work has explored autoregressive formulations for long video generation, typically by distilling from short-horizon bidirectional teachers. Nevertheless, given that teacher models cannot synthesize long videos, the extrapolation of student models beyond their training horizon often leads to pronounced quality degradation, arising from the compounding of errors within the continuous latent space. In this paper, we propose a simple yet effective approach to mitigate quality degradation in long-horizon video generation without requiring supervision from long-video teachers or retraining on long video datasets. Our approach centers on exploiting the rich knowledge of teacher models to provide guidance for the student model through sampled segments drawn from self-generated long videos. Our method maintains temporal consistency while scaling video length by up to 20x beyond teacher's capability, avoiding common issues such as over-exposure and error-accumulation without recomputing overlapping frames like previous methods. When scaling up the computation, our method shows the capability of generating videos up to 4 minutes and 15 seconds, equivalent to 99.9% of the maximum span supported by our base model's position embedding and more than 50x longer than that of our baseline model. Experiments on standard benchmarks and our proposed improved benchmark demonstrate that our approach substantially outperforms baseline methods in both fidelity and consistency. Our long-horizon videos demo can be found at https://self-forcing-plus-plus.github.io/

Current frontier video diffusion models have demonstrated remarkable results at generating high-quality videos. However, they can only generate short video clips, normally around 10 seconds or 240 frames, due to computation limitations during training. In this work, we show that existing models can be naturally extended to autoregressive video diffusion models without changing the architectures. Our key idea is to assign the latent frames with progressively increasing noise levels rather than a single noise level, which allows for fine-grained condition among the latents and large overlaps between the attention windows. Such progressive video denoising allows our models to autoregressively generate video frames without quality degradation or abrupt scene changes. We present state-of-the-art results on long video generation at 1 minute (1440 frames at 24 FPS). Videos from this paper are available at https://desaixie.github.io/pa-vdm/.

Learning to denoise has emerged as a prominent paradigm to design state-of-the-art deep generative models for natural images. How to use it to model the distributions of both continuous real-valued data and categorical data has been well studied in recently proposed diffusion models. However, it is found in this paper to have limited ability in modeling some other types of data, such as count and non-negative continuous data, that are often highly sparse, skewed, heavy-tailed, and/or overdispersed. To this end, we propose learning to jump as a general recipe for generative modeling of various types of data. Using a forward count thinning process to construct learning objectives to train a deep neural network, it employs a reverse count thickening process to iteratively refine its generation through that network. We demonstrate when learning to jump is expected to perform comparably to learning to denoise, and when it is expected to perform better. For example, learning to jump is recommended when the training data is non-negative and exhibits strong sparsity, skewness, heavy-tailedness, and/or heterogeneity.

Video diffusion models have recently achieved remarkable results in video generation. Despite their encouraging performance, most of these models are mainly designed and trained for short video generation, leading to challenges in maintaining temporal consistency and visual details in long video generation. In this paper, we propose LongDiff, a novel training-free method consisting of carefully designed components \ -- Position Mapping (PM) and Informative Frame Selection (IFS) \ -- to tackle two key challenges that hinder short-to-long video generation generalization: temporal position ambiguity and information dilution. Our LongDiff unlocks the potential of off-the-shelf video diffusion models to achieve high-quality long video generation in one go. Extensive experiments demonstrate the efficacy of our method.

We show via a combination of mathematical arguments and empirical evidence that data distributions sampled from diffusion models satisfy a Concentration of Measure Property saying that any Lipschitz 1-dimensional projection of a random vector is not too far from its mean with high probability. This implies that such models are quite restrictive and gives an explanation for a fact previously observed in the literature that conventional diffusion models cannot capture "heavy-tailed" data (i.e. data x for which the norm |x|_2 does not possess a sub-Gaussian tail) well. We then proceed to train a generalized linear model using stochastic gradient descent (SGD) on the diffusion-generated data for a multiclass classification task and observe empirically that a Gaussian universality result holds for the test error. In other words, the test error depends only on the first and second order statistics of the diffusion-generated data in the linear setting. Results of such forms are desirable because they allow one to assume the data itself is Gaussian for analyzing performance of the trained classifier. Finally, we note that current approaches to proving universality do not apply to this case as the covariance matrices of the data tend to have vanishing minimum singular values for the diffusion-generated data, while the current proofs assume that this is not the case (see Subsection 3.4 for more details). This leaves extending previous mathematical universality results as an intriguing open question.

We study generative modeling on convex domains using flow matching and mirror maps, and identify two fundamental challenges. First, standard log-barrier mirror maps induce heavy-tailed dual distributions, leading to ill-posed dynamics. Second, coupling with Gaussian priors performs poorly when matching heavy-tailed targets. To address these issues, we propose Mirror Flow Matching based on a regularized mirror map that controls dual tail behavior and guarantees finite moments, together with coupling to a Student-t prior that aligns with heavy-tailed targets and stabilizes training. We provide theoretical guarantees, including spatial Lipschitzness and temporal regularity of the velocity field, Wasserstein convergence rates for flow matching with Student-t priors and primal-space guarantees for constrained generation, under varepsilon-accurate learned velocity fields. Empirically, our method outperforms baselines in synthetic convex-domain simulations and achieves competitive sample quality on real-world constrained generative tasks.

As large language models (LLMs) scale, the question is not only how large they become, but how much of their capacity is effectively utilized. Existing scaling laws relate model size to loss, yet overlook how components exploit their latent space. We study feed-forward networks (FFNs) and recast width selection as a spectral utilization problem. Using a lightweight diagnostic suite -- Hard Rank (participation ratio), Soft Rank (Shannon rank), Spectral Concentration, and the composite Spectral Utilization Index (SUI) -- we quantify how many latent directions are meaningfully activated across LLaMA, GPT-2, and nGPT families. Our key finding is an asymmetric spectral scaling law: soft rank follows an almost perfect power law with FFN width, while hard rank grows only sublinearly and with high variance. This asymmetry suggests that widening FFNs mostly adds low-energy tail directions, while dominant-mode subspaces saturate early. Moreover, at larger widths, variance further collapses into a narrow subspace, leaving much of the latent space under-utilized. These results recast FFN width selection as a principled trade-off between tail capacity and dominant-mode capacity, offering concrete guidance for inference-efficient LLM design.

We study the problem of detecting the correlation between two Gaussian databases XinR^{ntimes d} and Y^{ntimes d}, each composed of n users with d features. This problem is relevant in the analysis of social media, computational biology, etc. We formulate this as a hypothesis testing problem: under the null hypothesis, these two databases are statistically independent. Under the alternative, however, there exists an unknown permutation sigma over the set of n users (or, row permutation), such that X is rho-correlated with Y^sigma, a permuted version of Y. We determine sharp thresholds at which optimal testing exhibits a phase transition, depending on the asymptotic regime of n and d. Specifically, we prove that if rho^2dto0, as dtoinfty, then weak detection (performing slightly better than random guessing) is statistically impossible, irrespectively of the value of n. This compliments the performance of a simple test that thresholds the sum all entries of X^TY. Furthermore, when d is fixed, we prove that strong detection (vanishing error probability) is impossible for any rho<rho^star, where rho^star is an explicit function of d, while weak detection is again impossible as long as rho^2dto0. These results close significant gaps in current recent related studies.

Large reasoning models enhanced by reinforcement learning with verifiable rewards have achieved significant performance gains by extending their chain-of-thought. However, this paradigm incurs substantial deployment costs as models often exhibit excessive verbosity on simple queries. Existing efficient reasoning methods relying on explicit length penalties often introduce optimization conflicts and leave the generative mechanisms driving overthinking largely unexamined. In this paper, we identify a phenomenon termed length shift where models increasingly generate unnecessary reasoning on trivial inputs during training. To address this, we introduce Dynamic Outlier Truncation (DOT), a training-time intervention that selectively suppresses redundant tokens. This method targets only the extreme tail of response lengths within fully correct rollout groups while preserving long-horizon reasoning capabilities for complex problems. To complement this intervention and ensure stable convergence, we further incorporate auxiliary KL regularization and predictive dynamic sampling. Experimental results across multiple model scales demonstrate that our approach significantly pushes the efficiency-performance Pareto frontier outward. Notably, on the AIME-24, our method reduces inference token usage by 78% while simultaneously increasing accuracy compared to the initial policy and surpassing state-of-the-art efficient reasoning methods.

In this paper, we propose NUWA-XL, a novel Diffusion over Diffusion architecture for eXtremely Long video generation. Most current work generates long videos segment by segment sequentially, which normally leads to the gap between training on short videos and inferring long videos, and the sequential generation is inefficient. Instead, our approach adopts a ``coarse-to-fine'' process, in which the video can be generated in parallel at the same granularity. A global diffusion model is applied to generate the keyframes across the entire time range, and then local diffusion models recursively fill in the content between nearby frames. This simple yet effective strategy allows us to directly train on long videos (3376 frames) to reduce the training-inference gap, and makes it possible to generate all segments in parallel. To evaluate our model, we build FlintstonesHD dataset, a new benchmark for long video generation. Experiments show that our model not only generates high-quality long videos with both global and local coherence, but also decreases the average inference time from 7.55min to 26s (by 94.26\%) at the same hardware setting when generating 1024 frames. The homepage link is https://msra-nuwa.azurewebsites.net/

State-of-the-art results on image recognition tasks are achieved using over-parameterized learning algorithms that (nearly) perfectly fit the training set and are known to fit well even random labels. This tendency to memorize the labels of the training data is not explained by existing theoretical analyses. Memorization of the training data also presents significant privacy risks when the training data contains sensitive personal information and thus it is important to understand whether such memorization is necessary for accurate learning. We provide the first conceptual explanation and a theoretical model for this phenomenon. Specifically, we demonstrate that for natural data distributions memorization of labels is necessary for achieving close-to-optimal generalization error. Crucially, even labels of outliers and noisy labels need to be memorized. The model is motivated and supported by the results of several recent empirical works. In our model, data is sampled from a mixture of subpopulations and our results show that memorization is necessary whenever the distribution of subpopulation frequencies is long-tailed. Image and text data is known to be long-tailed and therefore our results establish a formal link between these empirical phenomena. Our results allow to quantify the cost of limiting memorization in learning and explain the disparate effects that privacy and model compression have on different subgroups.

Low-quality or scarce data has posed significant challenges for training deep neural networks in practice. While classical data augmentation cannot contribute very different new data, diffusion models opens up a new door to build self-evolving AI by generating high-quality and diverse synthetic data through text-guided prompts. However, text-only guidance cannot control synthetic images' proximity to the original images, resulting in out-of-distribution data detrimental to the model performance. To overcome the limitation, we study image guidance to achieve a spectrum of interpolations between synthetic and real images. With stronger image guidance, the generated images are similar to the training data but hard to learn. While with weaker image guidance, the synthetic images will be easier for model but contribute to a larger distribution gap with the original data. The generated full spectrum of data enables us to build a novel "Diffusion Curriculum (DisCL)". DisCL adjusts the image guidance level of image synthesis for each training stage: It identifies and focuses on hard samples for the model and assesses the most effective guidance level of synthetic images to improve hard data learning. We apply DisCL to two challenging tasks: long-tail (LT) classification and learning from low-quality data. It focuses on lower-guidance images of high-quality to learn prototypical features as a warm-up of learning higher-guidance images that might be weak on diversity or quality. Extensive experiments showcase a gain of 2.7% and 2.1% in OOD and ID macro-accuracy when applying DisCL to iWildCam dataset. On ImageNet-LT, DisCL improves the base model's tail-class accuracy from 4.4% to 23.64% and leads to a 4.02% improvement in all-class accuracy.

Loss Given Default (LGD) modeling faces a fundamental data quality constraint: 90% of available training data consists of proxy estimates based on pre-distress balance sheets rather than actual recovery outcomes from completed bankruptcy proceedings. We demonstrate that this mixture-contaminated training structure causes systematic failure of recursive partitioning methods, with Random Forest achieving negative r-squared (-0.664, worse than predicting the mean) on held-out test data. Information-theoretic approaches based on Shannon entropy and mutual information provide superior generalization, achieving r-squared of 0.191 and RMSE of 0.284 on 1,218 corporate bankruptcies (1980-2023). Analysis reveals that leverage-based features contain 1.510 bits of mutual information while size effects contribute only 0.086 bits, contradicting regulatory assumptions about scale-dependent recovery. These results establish practical guidance for financial institutions deploying LGD models under Basel III requirements when representative outcome data is unavailable at sufficient scale. The findings generalize to medical outcomes research, climate forecasting, and technology reliability-domains where extended observation periods create unavoidable mixture structure in training data.

Conventional multi-label classification (MLC) methods assume that all samples are fully labeled and identically distributed. Unfortunately, this assumption is unrealistic in large-scale MLC data that has long-tailed (LT) distribution and partial labels (PL). To address the problem, we introduce a novel task, Partial labeling and Long-Tailed Multi-Label Classification (PLT-MLC), to jointly consider the above two imperfect learning environments. Not surprisingly, we find that most LT-MLC and PL-MLC approaches fail to solve the PLT-MLC, resulting in significant performance degradation on the two proposed PLT-MLC benchmarks. Therefore, we propose an end-to-end learning framework: COrrection rightarrow ModificatIon rightarrow balanCe, abbreviated as \method{}. Our bootstrapping philosophy is to simultaneously correct the missing labels (Correction) with convinced prediction confidence over a class-aware threshold and to learn from these recall labels during training. We next propose a novel multi-focal modifier loss that simultaneously addresses head-tail imbalance and positive-negative imbalance to adaptively modify the attention to different samples (Modification) under the LT class distribution. In addition, we develop a balanced training strategy by distilling the model's learning effect from head and tail samples, and thus design a balanced classifier (Balance) conditioned on the head and tail learning effect to maintain stable performance for all samples. Our experimental study shows that the proposed significantly outperforms general MLC, LT-MLC and PL-MLC methods in terms of effectiveness and robustness on our newly created PLT-MLC datasets.

Autoregressive video diffusion models have emerged as a scalable paradigm for long video generation. However, they often suffer from severe extrapolation failure, where rapid error accumulation leads to significant temporal degradation when extending beyond training horizons. We identify that this failure primarily stems from the spectral bias of 3D positional embeddings and the lack of dynamic priors in noise sampling. To address these issues, we propose FLEX (Frequency-aware Length EXtension), a training-free inference-time framework that bridges the gap between short-term training and long-term inference. FLEX introduces Frequency-aware RoPE Modulation to adaptively interpolate under-trained low-frequency components while extrapolating high-frequency ones to preserve multi-scale temporal discriminability. This is integrated with Antiphase Noise Sampling (ANS) to inject high-frequency dynamic priors and Inference-only Attention Sink to anchor global structure. Extensive evaluations on VBench demonstrate that FLEX significantly outperforms state-of-the-art models at 6x extrapolation (30s duration) and matches the performance of long-video fine-tuned baselines at 12x scale (60s duration). As a plug-and-play augmentation, FLEX seamlessly integrates into existing inference pipelines for horizon extension. It effectively pushes the generation limits of models such as LongLive, supporting consistent and dynamic video synthesis at a 4-minute scale. Project page is available at https://ga-lee.github.io/FLEX_demo.

Recently, recurrent models such as state space models and linear attention have become popular due to their linear complexity in the sequence length. Thanks to their recurrent nature, in principle they can process arbitrarily long sequences, but their performance sometimes drops considerably beyond their training context lengths-i.e. they fail to length generalize. In this work, we provide comprehensive empirical and theoretical analysis to support the unexplored states hypothesis, which posits that models fail to length generalize when during training they are only exposed to a limited subset of the distribution of all attainable states (i.e. states that would be attained if the recurrence was applied to long sequences). Furthermore, we investigate simple training interventions that aim to increase the coverage of the states that the model is trained on, e.g. by initializing the state with Gaussian noise or with the final state of a different input sequence. With only 500 post-training steps (sim 0.1% of the pre-training budget), these interventions enable length generalization for sequences that are orders of magnitude longer than the training context (e.g. 2klongrightarrow 128k) and show improved performance in long context tasks, thus presenting a simple and efficient way to enable robust length generalization in general recurrent models.

Recently, multi-expert methods have led to significant improvements in long-tail recognition (LTR). We summarize two aspects that need further enhancement to contribute to LTR boosting: (1) More diverse experts; (2) Lower model variance. However, the previous methods didn't handle them well. To this end, we propose More Diverse experts with Consistency Self-distillation (MDCS) to bridge the gap left by earlier methods. Our MDCS approach consists of two core components: Diversity Loss (DL) and Consistency Self-distillation (CS). In detail, DL promotes diversity among experts by controlling their focus on different categories. To reduce the model variance, we employ KL divergence to distill the richer knowledge of weakly augmented instances for the experts' self-distillation. In particular, we design Confident Instance Sampling (CIS) to select the correctly classified instances for CS to avoid biased/noisy knowledge. In the analysis and ablation study, we demonstrate that our method compared with previous work can effectively increase the diversity of experts, significantly reduce the variance of the model, and improve recognition accuracy. Moreover, the roles of our DL and CS are mutually reinforcing and coupled: the diversity of experts benefits from the CS, and the CS cannot achieve remarkable results without the DL. Experiments show our MDCS outperforms the state-of-the-art by 1% sim 2% on five popular long-tailed benchmarks, including CIFAR10-LT, CIFAR100-LT, ImageNet-LT, Places-LT, and iNaturalist 2018. The code is available at https://github.com/fistyee/MDCS.

Systematic Investment Plans (SIPs) are a primary vehicle for retail equity participation in India, yet the impact of their intra-month timing remains underexplored. This study offers a 22-year (2003--2024) comparative analysis of SIP performance in the Nifty 50 index, contrasting the conventional first-trading-day (FTD-SIP) strategy with an alternative aligned to monthly Futures and Options expiry days (EXP-SIP). Using a multi-layered statistical framework -- including non-parametric tests, effect size metrics, and stochastic dominance -- we uncover two key findings. First, EXP-SIPs outperform FTD-SIPs by 0.5--2.5\% annually over short-to-medium-term horizons (1--5 years), with Second-Order Stochastic Dominance (SSD) confirming the EXP-SIP as the preferred choice for all risk-averse investors. Second, we establish boundary conditions for this advantage, showing it decays and becomes economically negligible over longer horizons (10--20 years), where compounding and participation dominate. Additionally, the study challenges the prevalent ``12\% return'' narrative in Indian equity markets, finding that the 20-year pre-tax CAGR for Nifty 50 SIPs is closer to 6.7\%. These findings carry significant implications for investor welfare, financial product design, and transparency in return reporting.

Video generation is a critical pathway toward world models, with efficient long video inference as a key capability. Toward this end, we introduce LongCat-Video, a foundational video generation model with 13.6B parameters, delivering strong performance across multiple video generation tasks. It particularly excels in efficient and high-quality long video generation, representing our first step toward world models. Key features include: Unified architecture for multiple tasks: Built on the Diffusion Transformer (DiT) framework, LongCat-Video supports Text-to-Video, Image-to-Video, and Video-Continuation tasks with a single model; Long video generation: Pretraining on Video-Continuation tasks enables LongCat-Video to maintain high quality and temporal coherence in the generation of minutes-long videos; Efficient inference: LongCat-Video generates 720p, 30fps videos within minutes by employing a coarse-to-fine generation strategy along both the temporal and spatial axes. Block Sparse Attention further enhances efficiency, particularly at high resolutions; Strong performance with multi-reward RLHF: Multi-reward RLHF training enables LongCat-Video to achieve performance on par with the latest closed-source and leading open-source models. Code and model weights are publicly available to accelerate progress in the field.

For a sequence of random variables (X_1, X_2, ldots, X_n), n geq 1, that are independent and identically distributed with a regularly varying tail with index -alpha, alpha geq 0, we show that the contribution of the maximum term M_n triangleq max(X_1,ldots,X_n) in the sum S_n triangleq X_1 + cdots +X_n, as n to infty, decreases monotonically with alpha in stochastic ordering sense.

Standard methods for detecting discontinuities in conditional means are not applicable to outcomes that are complex, non-Euclidean objects like distributions, networks, or covariance matrices. This article develops a nonparametric test for jumps in conditional means when outcomes lie in a non-Euclidean metric space. Using local Fr\'echet regressionx2014which generalizes standard regression to metric-space valued datax2014the method estimates a mean path on either side of a candidate cutoff, extending existing k-sample tests to a flexible regression setting. Key theoretical contributions include a central limit theorem for the local estimator of the conditional Fr\'echet variance and the asymptotic validity and consistency of the proposed test. Simulations confirm nominal size control and robust power in finite samples. Two applications demonstrate the method's value by revealing effects invisible to scalar-based tests. First, I detect a sharp change in work-from-home compositions at Washington State's income threshold for non-compete enforceability during COVID-19, highlighting remote work's role as a bargaining margin. Second, I find that countries restructure their input-output networks after losing preferential US trade access. These findings underscore that analyzing regression functions within their native metric spaces can reveal structural discontinuities that scalar summaries would miss.

Large-scale traffic forecasting relies on fixed sensor networks that often exhibit blackouts: contiguous intervals of missing measurements caused by detector or communication failures. These outages are typically handled under a Missing At Random (MAR) assumption, even though blackout events may correlate with unobserved traffic conditions (e.g., congestion or anomalous flow), motivating a Missing Not At Random (MNAR) treatment. We propose a latent state-space framework that jointly models (i) traffic dynamics via a linear dynamical system and (ii) sensor dropout via a Bernoulli observation channel whose probability depends on the latent traffic state. Inference uses an Extended Kalman Filter with Rauch-Tung-Striebel smoothing, and parameters are learned via an approximate EM procedure with a dedicated update for detector-specific missingness parameters. On the Seattle inductive loop detector data, introducing latent dynamics yields large gains over naive baselines, reducing blackout imputation RMSE from 7.02 (LOCF) and 5.02 (linear interpolation + seasonal naive) to 4.23 (MAR LDS), corresponding to about a 64% reduction in MSE relative to LOCF. Explicit MNAR modeling provides a consistent but smaller additional improvement on real data (imputation RMSE 4.20; 0.8% RMSE reduction relative to MAR), with similar modest gains for short-horizon post-blackout forecasts (evaluated at 1, 3, and 6 steps). In controlled synthetic experiments, the MNAR advantage increases as the true missingness dependence on latent state strengthens. Overall, temporal dynamics dominate performance, while MNAR modeling offers a principled refinement that becomes most valuable when missingness is genuinely informative.

ASR models often suffer from a long-form deletion problem where the model predicts sequential blanks instead of words when transcribing a lengthy audio (in the order of minutes or hours). From the perspective of a user or downstream system consuming the ASR results, this behavior can be perceived as the model "being stuck", and potentially make the product hard to use. One of the culprits for long-form deletion is training-test data mismatch, which can happen even when the model is trained on diverse and large-scale data collected from multiple application domains. In this work, we introduce a novel technique to simultaneously model different groups of speakers in the audio along with the standard transcript tokens. Speakers are grouped as primary and non-primary, which connects the application domains and significantly alleviates the long-form deletion problem. This improved model neither needs any additional training data nor incurs additional training or inference cost.

Long-form generation is crucial for academic writing papers and repo-level code generation. Despite this, current models, including GPT-4o, still exhibit unsatisfactory performance. Existing methods that utilize preference learning with outcome supervision often fail to provide detailed feedback for extended contexts. This shortcoming can lead to content that does not fully satisfy query requirements, resulting in issues like length deviations, and diminished quality. In this paper, we propose enhancing long-form generation by incorporating process supervision. We employ Monte Carlo Tree Search to gather stepwise preference pairs, utilizing a global memory pool to maintain consistency. To address the issue of suboptimal candidate selection, we integrate external critiques to refine and improve the quality of the preference pairs. Finally, we apply step-level DPO using the collected stepwise preference pairs. Experimental results show that our method improves length and quality on long-form generation benchmarks, with almost lossless performance on general benchmarks across various model backbones.

Integrated autoregressive conditional duration (ACD) models serve as natural counterparts to the well-known integrated GARCH models used for financial returns. However, despite their resemblance, asymptotic theory for ACD is challenging and also not complete, in particular for integrated ACD. Central challenges arise from the facts that (i) integrated ACD processes imply durations with infinite expectation, and (ii) even in the non-integrated case, conventional asymptotic approaches break down due to the randomness in the number of durations within a fixed observation period. Addressing these challenges, we provide here unified asymptotic theory for the (quasi-) maximum likelihood estimator for ACD models; a unified theory which includes integrated ACD models. Based on the new results, we also provide a novel framework for hypothesis testing in duration models, enabling inference on a key empirical question: whether durations possess a finite or infinite expectation. We apply our results to high-frequency cryptocurrency ETF trading data. Motivated by parameter estimates near the integrated ACD boundary, we assess whether durations between trades in these markets have finite expectation, an assumption often made implicitly in the literature on point process models. Our empirical findings indicate infinite-mean durations for all the five cryptocurrencies examined, with the integrated ACD hypothesis rejected -- against alternatives with tail index less than one -- for four out of the five cryptocurrencies considered.

Recommender systems learn from historical user-item interactions to identify preferred items for target users. These observed interactions are usually unbalanced following a long-tailed distribution. Such long-tailed data lead to popularity bias to recommend popular but not personalized items to users. We present a gradient perspective to understand two negative impacts of popularity bias in recommendation model optimization: (i) the gradient direction of popular item embeddings is closer to that of positive interactions, and (ii) the magnitude of positive gradient for popular items are much greater than that of unpopular items. To address these issues, we propose a simple yet efficient framework to mitigate popularity bias from a gradient perspective. Specifically, we first normalize each user embedding and record accumulated gradients of users and items via popularity bias measures in model training. To address the popularity bias issues, we develop a gradient-based embedding adjustment approach used in model testing. This strategy is generic, model-agnostic, and can be seamlessly integrated into most existing recommender systems. Our extensive experiments on two classic recommendation models and four real-world datasets demonstrate the effectiveness of our method over state-of-the-art debiasing baselines.

Short-video platforms have rapidly become a new generation of information retrieval systems, where users formulate queries to access desired videos. However, user queries, especially long-tail ones, often suffer from spelling errors, incomplete phrasing, and ambiguous intent, resulting in mismatches between user expectations and retrieved results. While large language models (LLMs) have shown success in long-tail query rewriting within e-commerce, they struggle on short-video platforms, where proprietary content such as short videos, live streams, micro dramas, and user social networks falls outside their training distribution. To address this challenge, we introduce CardRewriter, an LLM-based framework that incorporates domain-specific knowledge to enhance long-tail query rewriting. For each query, our method aggregates multi-source knowledge relevant to the query and summarizes it into an informative and query-relevant knowledge card. This card then guides the LLM to better capture user intent and produce more effective query rewrites. We optimize CardRewriter using a two-stage training pipeline: supervised fine-tuning followed by group relative policy optimization, with a tailored reward system balancing query relevance and retrieval effectiveness. Offline experiments show that CardRewriter substantially improves rewriting quality for queries targeting proprietary content. Online A/B testing further confirms significant gains in long-view rate (LVR) and click-through rate (CTR), along with a notable reduction in initiative query reformulation rate (IQRR). Since September 2025, CardRewriter has been deployed on Kuaishou, one of China's largest short-video platforms, serving hundreds of millions of users daily.

Self-improvement methods enable large language models (LLMs) to generate solutions themselves and iteratively train on filtered, high-quality rationales. This process proves effective and reduces the reliance on human supervision in LLMs' reasoning, but the performance soon plateaus. We delve into the process and find that models tend to over-sample on easy queries and under-sample on queries they have yet to master. As iterations proceed, this imbalance in sampling is exacerbated, leading to a long-tail distribution where solutions to difficult queries almost diminish. This phenomenon limits the performance gain of self-improving models. A straightforward solution is brute-force sampling to balance the distribution, which significantly raises computational costs. In this paper, we introduce Guided Self-Improvement (GSI), a strategy aimed at improving the efficiency of sampling challenging heavy-tailed data. It leverages Socratic-style guidance signals to help LLM reasoning with complex queries, reducing the exploration effort and minimizing computational overhead. Experiments on four models across diverse mathematical tasks show that GSI strikes a balance between performance and efficiency, while also being effective on held-out tasks.

Federated Long-Tailed Learning (Fed-LT), a paradigm wherein data collected from decentralized local clients manifests a globally prevalent long-tailed distribution, has garnered considerable attention in recent times. In the context of Fed-LT, existing works have predominantly centered on addressing the data imbalance issue to enhance the efficacy of the generic global model while neglecting the performance at the local level. In contrast, conventional Personalized Federated Learning (pFL) techniques are primarily devised to optimize personalized local models under the presumption of a balanced global data distribution. This paper introduces an approach termed Federated Local and Generic Model Training in Fed-LT (FedLoGe), which enhances both local and generic model performance through the integration of representation learning and classifier alignment within a neural collapse framework. Our investigation reveals the feasibility of employing a shared backbone as a foundational framework for capturing overarching global trends, while concurrently employing individualized classifiers to encapsulate distinct refinements stemming from each client's local features. Building upon this discovery, we establish the Static Sparse Equiangular Tight Frame Classifier (SSE-C), inspired by neural collapse principles that naturally prune extraneous noisy features and foster the acquisition of potent data representations. Furthermore, leveraging insights from imbalance neural collapse's classifier norm patterns, we develop Global and Local Adaptive Feature Realignment (GLA-FR) via an auxiliary global classifier and personalized Euclidean norm transfer to align global features with client preferences. Extensive experimental results on CIFAR-10/100-LT, ImageNet, and iNaturalist demonstrate the advantage of our method over state-of-the-art pFL and Fed-LT approaches.

Semantic segmentation usually suffers from a long-tail data distribution. Due to the imbalanced number of samples across categories, the features of those tail classes may get squeezed into a narrow area in the feature space. Towards a balanced feature distribution, we introduce category-wise variation into the network predictions in the training phase such that an instance is no longer projected to a feature point, but a small region instead. Such a perturbation is highly dependent on the category scale, which appears as assigning smaller variation to head classes and larger variation to tail classes. In this way, we manage to close the gap between the feature areas of different categories, resulting in a more balanced representation. It is noteworthy that the introduced variation is discarded at the inference stage to facilitate a confident prediction. Although with an embarrassingly simple implementation, our method manifests itself in strong generalizability to various datasets and task settings. Extensive experiments suggest that our plug-in design lends itself well to a range of state-of-the-art approaches and boosts the performance on top of them.

Smaller-scale Vision-Langauge Models (VLMs) often claim to perform on par with larger models in general-domain visual grounding and question-answering benchmarks while offering advantages in computational efficiency and storage. However, their ability to handle rare objects, which fall into the long tail of data distributions, is less understood. To rigorously evaluate this aspect, we introduce the "Uncontextualized Uncommon Objects" (UOUO) benchmark. This benchmark focuses on systematically testing VLMs with both large and small parameter counts on rare and specialized objects. Our comprehensive analysis reveals that while smaller VLMs maintain competitive performance on common datasets, they significantly underperform on tasks involving uncommon objects. We also propose an advanced, scalable pipeline for data collection and cleaning, ensuring the UOUO benchmark provides high-quality, challenging instances. These findings highlight the need to consider long-tail distributions when assessing the true capabilities of VLMs.

Long-tailed recognition with imbalanced class distribution naturally emerges in practical machine learning applications. Existing methods such as data reweighing, resampling, and supervised contrastive learning enforce the class balance with a price of introducing imbalance between instances of head class and tail class, which may ignore the underlying rich semantic substructures of the former and exaggerate the biases in the latter. We overcome these drawbacks by a novel ``subclass-balancing contrastive learning (SBCL)'' approach that clusters each head class into multiple subclasses of similar sizes as the tail classes and enforce representations to capture the two-layer class hierarchy between the original classes and their subclasses. Since the clustering is conducted in the representation space and updated during the course of training, the subclass labels preserve the semantic substructures of head classes. Meanwhile, it does not overemphasize tail class samples, so each individual instance contribute to the representation learning equally. Hence, our method achieves both the instance- and subclass-balance, while the original class labels are also learned through contrastive learning among subclasses from different classes. We evaluate SBCL over a list of long-tailed benchmark datasets and it achieves the state-of-the-art performance. In addition, we present extensive analyses and ablation studies of SBCL to verify its advantages.

This paper studies Kernel density estimation for a high-dimensional distribution rho(x). Traditional approaches have focused on the limit of large number of data points n and fixed dimension d. We analyze instead the regime where both the number n of data points y_i and their dimensionality d grow with a fixed ratio alpha=(log n)/d. Our study reveals three distinct statistical regimes for the kernel-based estimate of the density hat rho_h^{D}(x)=1{n h^d}sum_{i=1}^n Kleft(x-y_i{h}right), depending on the bandwidth h: a classical regime for large bandwidth where the Central Limit Theorem (CLT) holds, which is akin to the one found in traditional approaches. Below a certain value of the bandwidth, h_{CLT}(alpha), we find that the CLT breaks down. The statistics of hat rho_h^{D}(x) for a fixed x drawn from rho(x) is given by a heavy-tailed distribution (an alpha-stable distribution). In particular below a value h_G(alpha), we find that hat rho_h^{D}(x) is governed by extreme value statistics: only a few points in the database matter and give the dominant contribution to the density estimator. We provide a detailed analysis for high-dimensional multivariate Gaussian data. We show that the optimal bandwidth threshold based on Kullback-Leibler divergence lies in the new statistical regime identified in this paper. Our findings reveal limitations of classical approaches, show the relevance of these new statistical regimes, and offer new insights for Kernel density estimation in high-dimensional settings.

The quality of training data are crucial for enhancing the long-text capabilities of foundation models. Despite existing efforts to refine data quality through heuristic rules and evaluations based on data diversity and difficulty, there's a lack of systematic approaches specifically tailored for assessing long texts. Addressing this gap, our work systematically measures the quality of long texts by evaluating three fundamental linguistic dimensions: coherence, cohesion, and complexity. Drawing inspiration from the aforementioned three dimensions, we introduce a suite of metrics designed to evaluate the quality of long texts, encompassing both statistical and pre-trained language model-based ones. Leveraging these metrics, we present LongWanjuan, a bilingual dataset specifically tailored to enhance the training of language models for long-text tasks with over 160B tokens. In LongWanjuan, we categorize long texts into holistic, aggregated, and chaotic types, enabling a detailed analysis of long-text quality. Furthermore, we devise a data mixture recipe that strategically balances different types of long texts within LongWanjuan, leading to significant improvements in model performance on long-text tasks. The code and dataset are available at https://github.com/OpenLMLab/LongWanjuan.

Diffusion large language models (dLLMs) have emerged as a promising alternative to autoregressive models, offering flexible generation orders and strong performance on complex reasoning tasks. However, instruction-tuned dLLMs exhibit a critical vulnerability we term <eos> overflow: as allocated sequence length increases, responses paradoxically become shorter, collapsing into early termination or degenerating into streams of <eos> tokens. Although noticed in practice, this issue has not been systematically analyzed. We trace its root cause to the dual role of <eos> as both termination and padding, which concentrates probability mass on <eos> at later positions and propagates backward to trigger early termination. To address this, we introduce Rainbow Padding, a simple remedy that replaces repeated <eos> placeholders with a repeating cycle of distinct padding tokens, distributing probability mass and breaking <eos> dominance. Experiments show that Rainbow Padding substantially improves length robustness and output quality, with as few as seven padding tokens sufficient to prevent early termination. Moreover, the method integrates efficiently into existing instruction-tuned models: LoRA fine-tuning for a single epoch on minimal data yields significant improvements, making this solution highly practical. The code is publicly available at https://github.com/quasar529/rainbow-padding.

In the past several years, the last-iterate convergence of the Stochastic Gradient Descent (SGD) algorithm has triggered people's interest due to its good performance in practice but lack of theoretical understanding. For Lipschitz convex functions, different works have established the optimal O(log(1/delta)log T/T) or O(log(1/delta)/T) high-probability convergence rates for the final iterate, where T is the time horizon and delta is the failure probability. However, to prove these bounds, all the existing works are either limited to compact domains or require almost surely bounded noises. It is natural to ask whether the last iterate of SGD can still guarantee the optimal convergence rate but without these two restrictive assumptions. Besides this important question, there are still lots of theoretical problems lacking an answer. For example, compared with the last-iterate convergence of SGD for non-smooth problems, only few results for smooth optimization have yet been developed. Additionally, the existing results are all limited to a non-composite objective and the standard Euclidean norm. It still remains unclear whether the last-iterate convergence can be provably extended to wider composite optimization and non-Euclidean norms. In this work, to address the issues mentioned above, we revisit the last-iterate convergence of stochastic gradient methods and provide the first unified way to prove the convergence rates both in expectation and in high probability to accommodate general domains, composite objectives, non-Euclidean norms, Lipschitz conditions, smoothness, and (strong) convexity simultaneously. Additionally, we extend our analysis to obtain the last-iterate convergence under heavy-tailed noises.

Long context fine-tuning of large language models(LLMs) involves training on datasets that are predominantly composed of short sequences and a small proportion of longer sequences. However, existing approaches overlook this long-tail distribution and employ training strategies designed specifically for long sequences. Moreover, these approaches also fail to address the challenges posed by variable sequence lengths during distributed training, such as load imbalance in data parallelism and severe pipeline bubbles in pipeline parallelism. These issues lead to suboptimal training performance and poor GPU resource utilization. To tackle these problems, we propose a chunk-centric training method named ChunkFlow. ChunkFlow reorganizes input sequences into uniformly sized chunks by consolidating short sequences and splitting longer ones. This approach achieves optimal computational efficiency and balance among training inputs. Additionally, ChunkFlow incorporates a state-aware chunk scheduling mechanism to ensure that the peak memory usage during training is primarily determined by the chunk size rather than the maximum sequence length in the dataset. Integrating this scheduling mechanism with existing pipeline scheduling algorithms further enhances the performance of distributed training. Experimental results demonstrate that, compared with Megatron-LM, ChunkFlow can be up to 4.53x faster in the long context fine-tuning of LLMs. Furthermore, we believe that ChunkFlow serves as an effective solution for a broader range of scenarios, such as long context continual pre-training, where datasets contain variable-length sequences.

In the real world, the frequency of occurrence of objects is naturally skewed forming long-tail class distributions, which results in poor performance on the statistically rare classes. A promising solution is to mine tail-class examples to balance the training dataset. However, mining tail-class examples is a very challenging task. For instance, most of the otherwise successful uncertainty-based mining approaches struggle due to distortion of class probabilities resulting from skewness in data. In this work, we propose an effective, yet simple, approach to overcome these challenges. Our framework enhances the subdued tail-class activations and, thereafter, uses a one-class data-centric approach to effectively identify tail-class examples. We carry out an exhaustive evaluation of our framework on three datasets spanning over two computer vision tasks. Substantial improvements in the minority-class mining and fine-tuned model's performance strongly corroborate the value of our proposed solution.

Real-world videos often extend over thousands of frames. Existing video super-resolution (VSR) approaches, however, face two persistent challenges when processing long sequences: (1) inefficiency due to the heavy cost of multi-step denoising for full-length sequences; and (2) poor scalability hindered by temporal decomposition that causes artifacts and discontinuities. To break these limits, we propose InfVSR, which novelly reformulates VSR as an autoregressive-one-step-diffusion paradigm. This enables streaming inference while fully leveraging pre-trained video diffusion priors. First, we adapt the pre-trained DiT into a causal structure, maintaining both local and global coherence via rolling KV-cache and joint visual guidance. Second, we distill the diffusion process into a single step efficiently, with patch-wise pixel supervision and cross-chunk distribution matching. Together, these designs enable efficient and scalable VSR for unbounded-length videos. To fill the gap in long-form video evaluation, we build a new benchmark tailored for extended sequences and further introduce semantic-level metrics to comprehensively assess temporal consistency. Our method pushes the frontier of long-form VSR, achieves state-of-the-art quality with enhanced semantic consistency, and delivers up to 58x speed-up over existing methods such as MGLD-VSR. Code will be available at https://github.com/Kai-Liu001/InfVSR.

Diffusion models have demonstrated remarkable capabilities in generating high-quality samples and enhancing performance across diverse domains through Classifier-Free Guidance (CFG). However, the quality of generated samples is highly sensitive to the selection of the guidance weight. In this work, we identify a critical ``training-inference gap'' and we argue that it is the presence of this gap that undermines the performance of conditional generation and renders outputs highly sensitive to the guidance weight. We quantify this gap by measuring the accumulated error during the inference stage and establish a correlation between the selection of guidance weight and minimizing this gap. Furthermore, to mitigate this gap, we propose DiffIER, an optimization-based method for high-quality generation. We demonstrate that the accumulated error can be effectively reduced by an iterative error minimization at each step during inference. By introducing this novel plug-and-play optimization framework, we enable the optimization of errors at every single inference step and enhance generation quality. Empirical results demonstrate that our proposed method outperforms baseline approaches in conditional generation tasks. Furthermore, the method achieves consistent success in text-to-image generation, image super-resolution, and text-to-speech generation, underscoring its versatility and potential for broad applications in future research.

Generating minute-long videos is a critical step toward developing world models, providing a foundation for realistic extended scenes and advanced AI simulators. The emerging semi-autoregressive (block diffusion) paradigm integrates the strengths of diffusion and autoregressive models, enabling arbitrary-length video generation and improving inference efficiency through KV caching and parallel sampling. However, it yet faces two enduring challenges: (i) KV-cache-induced long-horizon error accumulation, and (ii) the lack of fine-grained long-video benchmarks and coherence-aware metrics. To overcome these limitations, we propose BlockVid, a novel block diffusion framework equipped with semantic-aware sparse KV cache, an effective training strategy called Block Forcing, and dedicated chunk-wise noise scheduling and shuffling to reduce error propagation and enhance temporal consistency. We further introduce LV-Bench, a fine-grained benchmark for minute-long videos, complete with new metrics evaluating long-range coherence. Extensive experiments on VBench and LV-Bench demonstrate that BlockVid consistently outperforms existing methods in generating high-quality, coherent minute-long videos. In particular, it achieves a 22.2% improvement on VDE Subject and a 19.4% improvement on VDE Clarity in LV-Bench over the state of the art approaches. Project website: https://ziplab.co/BlockVid. Inferix (Code): https://github.com/alibaba-damo-academy/Inferix.