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SubscribeTowards a Personal Health Large Language Model
In health, most large language model (LLM) research has focused on clinical tasks. However, mobile and wearable devices, which are rarely integrated into such tasks, provide rich, longitudinal data for personal health monitoring. Here we present Personal Health Large Language Model (PH-LLM), fine-tuned from Gemini for understanding and reasoning over numerical time-series personal health data. We created and curated three datasets that test 1) production of personalized insights and recommendations from sleep patterns, physical activity, and physiological responses, 2) expert domain knowledge, and 3) prediction of self-reported sleep outcomes. For the first task we designed 857 case studies in collaboration with domain experts to assess real-world scenarios in sleep and fitness. Through comprehensive evaluation of domain-specific rubrics, we observed that Gemini Ultra 1.0 and PH-LLM are not statistically different from expert performance in fitness and, while experts remain superior for sleep, fine-tuning PH-LLM provided significant improvements in using relevant domain knowledge and personalizing information for sleep insights. We evaluated PH-LLM domain knowledge using multiple choice sleep medicine and fitness examinations. PH-LLM achieved 79% on sleep and 88% on fitness, exceeding average scores from a sample of human experts. Finally, we trained PH-LLM to predict self-reported sleep quality outcomes from textual and multimodal encoding representations of wearable data, and demonstrate that multimodal encoding is required to match performance of specialized discriminative models. Although further development and evaluation are necessary in the safety-critical personal health domain, these results demonstrate both the broad knowledge and capabilities of Gemini models and the benefit of contextualizing physiological data for personal health applications as done with PH-LLM.
Safe AI for health and beyond -- Monitoring to transform a health service
Machine learning techniques are effective for building predictive models because they identify patterns in large datasets. Development of a model for complex real-life problems often stop at the point of publication, proof of concept or when made accessible through some mode of deployment. However, a model in the medical domain risks becoming obsolete as patient demographics, systems and clinical practices change. The maintenance and monitoring of predictive model performance post-publication is crucial to enable their safe and effective long-term use. We will assess the infrastructure required to monitor the outputs of a machine learning algorithm, and present two scenarios with examples of monitoring and updates of models, firstly on a breast cancer prognosis model trained on public longitudinal data, and secondly on a neurodegenerative stratification algorithm that is currently being developed and tested in clinic.
The Role of AI in Early Detection of Life-Threatening Diseases: A Retinal Imaging Perspective
Retinal imaging has emerged as a powerful, non-invasive modality for detecting and quantifying biomarkers of systemic diseases-ranging from diabetes and hypertension to Alzheimer's disease and cardiovascular disorders but current insights remain dispersed across platforms and specialties. Recent technological advances in optical coherence tomography (OCT/OCTA) and adaptive optics (AO) now deliver ultra-high-resolution scans (down to 5 {\mu}m ) with superior contrast and spatial integration, allowing early identification of microvascular abnormalities and neurodegenerative changes. At the same time, AI-driven and machine learning (ML) algorithms have revolutionized the analysis of large-scale retinal datasets, increasing sensitivity and specificity; for example, deep learning models achieve > 90 \% sensitivity for diabetic retinopathy and AUC = 0.89 for the prediction of cardiovascular risk from fundus photographs. The proliferation of mobile health technologies and telemedicine platforms further extends access, reduces costs, and facilitates community-based screening and longitudinal monitoring. Despite these breakthroughs, translation into routine practice is hindered by heterogeneous imaging protocols, limited external validation of AI models, and integration challenges within clinical workflows. In this review, we systematically synthesize the latest OCT/OCT and AO developments, AI/ML approaches, and mHealth/Tele-ophthalmology initiatives and quantify their diagnostic performance across disease domains. Finally, we propose a roadmap for multicenter protocol standardization, prospective validation trials, and seamless incorporation of retinal screening into primary and specialty care pathways-paving the way for precision prevention, early intervention, and ongoing treatment of life-threatening systemic diseases.
Enforcing temporal consistency in Deep Learning segmentation of brain MR images
Longitudinal analysis has great potential to reveal developmental trajectories and monitor disease progression in medical imaging. This process relies on consistent and robust joint 4D segmentation. Traditional techniques are dependent on the similarity of images over time and the use of subject-specific priors to reduce random variation and improve the robustness and sensitivity of the overall longitudinal analysis. This is however slow and computationally intensive as subject-specific templates need to be rebuilt every time. The focus of this work to accelerate this analysis with the use of deep learning. The proposed approach is based on deep CNNs and incorporates semantic segmentation and provides a longitudinal relationship for the same subject. The proposed approach is based on deep CNNs and incorporates semantic segmentation and provides a longitudinal relationship for the same subject. The state of art using 3D patches as inputs to modified Unet provides results around {0.91 pm 0.5} Dice and using multi-view atlas in CNNs provide around the same results. In this work, different models are explored, each offers better accuracy and fast results while increasing the segmentation quality. These methods are evaluated on 135 scans from the EADC-ADNI Harmonized Hippocampus Protocol. Proposed CNN based segmentation approaches demonstrate how 2D segmentation using prior slices can provide similar results to 3D segmentation while maintaining good continuity in the 3D dimension and improved speed. Just using 2D modified sagittal slices provide us a better Dice and longitudinal analysis for a given subject. For the ADNI dataset, using the simple UNet CNN technique gives us {0.84 pm 0.5} and while using modified CNN techniques on the same input yields {0.89 pm 0.5}. Rate of atrophy and RMS error are calculated for several test cases using various methods and analyzed.
Multimodal Disease Progression Modeling via Spatiotemporal Disentanglement and Multiscale Alignment
Longitudinal multimodal data, including electronic health records (EHR) and sequential chest X-rays (CXRs), is critical for modeling disease progression, yet remains underutilized due to two key challenges: (1) redundancy in consecutive CXR sequences, where static anatomical regions dominate over clinically-meaningful dynamics, and (2) temporal misalignment between sparse, irregular imaging and continuous EHR data. We introduce DiPro, a novel framework that addresses these challenges through region-aware disentanglement and multi-timescale alignment. First, we disentangle static (anatomy) and dynamic (pathology progression) features in sequential CXRs, prioritizing disease-relevant changes. Second, we hierarchically align these static and dynamic CXR features with asynchronous EHR data via local (pairwise interval-level) and global (full-sequence) synchronization to model coherent progression pathways. Extensive experiments on the MIMIC dataset demonstrate that DiPro could effectively extract temporal clinical dynamics and achieve state-of-the-art performance on both disease progression identification and general ICU prediction tasks.
Efficient and Personalized Mobile Health Event Prediction via Small Language Models
Healthcare monitoring is crucial for early detection, timely intervention, and the ongoing management of health conditions, ultimately improving individuals' quality of life. Recent research shows that Large Language Models (LLMs) have demonstrated impressive performance in supporting healthcare tasks. However, existing LLM-based healthcare solutions typically rely on cloud-based systems, which raise privacy concerns and increase the risk of personal information leakage. As a result, there is growing interest in running these models locally on devices like mobile phones and wearables to protect users' privacy. Small Language Models (SLMs) are potential candidates to solve privacy and computational issues, as they are more efficient and better suited for local deployment. However, the performance of SLMs in healthcare domains has not yet been investigated. This paper examines the capability of SLMs to accurately analyze health data, such as steps, calories, sleep minutes, and other vital statistics, to assess an individual's health status. Our results show that, TinyLlama, which has 1.1 billion parameters, utilizes 4.31 GB memory, and has 0.48s latency, showing the best performance compared other four state-of-the-art (SOTA) SLMs on various healthcare applications. Our results indicate that SLMs could potentially be deployed on wearable or mobile devices for real-time health monitoring, providing a practical solution for efficient and privacy-preserving healthcare.
Large-scale Training of Foundation Models for Wearable Biosignals
Tracking biosignals is crucial for monitoring wellness and preempting the development of severe medical conditions. Today, wearable devices can conveniently record various biosignals, creating the opportunity to monitor health status without disruption to one's daily routine. Despite widespread use of wearable devices and existing digital biomarkers, the absence of curated data with annotated medical labels hinders the development of new biomarkers to measure common health conditions. In fact, medical datasets are usually small in comparison to other domains, which is an obstacle for developing neural network models for biosignals. To address this challenge, we have employed self-supervised learning using the unlabeled sensor data collected under informed consent from the large longitudinal Apple Heart and Movement Study (AHMS) to train foundation models for two common biosignals: photoplethysmography (PPG) and electrocardiogram (ECG) recorded on Apple Watch. We curated PPG and ECG datasets from AHMS that include data from ~141K participants spanning ~3 years. Our self-supervised learning framework includes participant level positive pair selection, stochastic augmentation module and a regularized contrastive loss optimized with momentum training, and generalizes well to both PPG and ECG modalities. We show that the pre-trained foundation models readily encode information regarding participants' demographics and health conditions. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first study that builds foundation models using large-scale PPG and ECG data collected via wearable consumer devices x2013 prior works have commonly used smaller-size datasets collected in clinical and experimental settings. We believe PPG and ECG foundation models can enhance future wearable devices by reducing the reliance on labeled data and hold the potential to help the users improve their health.
Pattern Discovery in Time Series with Byte Pair Encoding
The growing popularity of wearable sensors has generated large quantities of temporal physiological and activity data. Ability to analyze this data offers new opportunities for real-time health monitoring and forecasting. However, temporal physiological data presents many analytic challenges: the data is noisy, contains many missing values, and each series has a different length. Most methods proposed for time series analysis and classification do not handle datasets with these characteristics nor do they offer interpretability and explainability, a critical requirement in the health domain. We propose an unsupervised method for learning representations of time series based on common patterns identified within them. The patterns are, interpretable, variable in length, and extracted using Byte Pair Encoding compression technique. In this way the method can capture both long-term and short-term dependencies present in the data. We show that this method applies to both univariate and multivariate time series and beats state-of-the-art approaches on a real world dataset collected from wearable sensors.
GLOBEM Dataset: Multi-Year Datasets for Longitudinal Human Behavior Modeling Generalization
Recent research has demonstrated the capability of behavior signals captured by smartphones and wearables for longitudinal behavior modeling. However, there is a lack of a comprehensive public dataset that serves as an open testbed for fair comparison among algorithms. Moreover, prior studies mainly evaluate algorithms using data from a single population within a short period, without measuring the cross-dataset generalizability of these algorithms. We present the first multi-year passive sensing datasets, containing over 700 user-years and 497 unique users' data collected from mobile and wearable sensors, together with a wide range of well-being metrics. Our datasets can support multiple cross-dataset evaluations of behavior modeling algorithms' generalizability across different users and years. As a starting point, we provide the benchmark results of 18 algorithms on the task of depression detection. Our results indicate that both prior depression detection algorithms and domain generalization techniques show potential but need further research to achieve adequate cross-dataset generalizability. We envision our multi-year datasets can support the ML community in developing generalizable longitudinal behavior modeling algorithms.
Multimodal Sensor Dataset for Monitoring Older Adults Post Lower-Limb Fractures in Community Settings
Lower-Limb Fractures (LLF) are a major health concern for older adults, often leading to reduced mobility and prolonged recovery, potentially impairing daily activities and independence. During recovery, older adults frequently face social isolation and functional decline, complicating rehabilitation and adversely affecting physical and mental health. Multi-modal sensor platforms that continuously collect data and analyze it using machine-learning algorithms can remotely monitor this population and infer health outcomes. They can also alert clinicians to individuals at risk of isolation and decline. This paper presents a new publicly available multi-modal sensor dataset, MAISON-LLF, collected from older adults recovering from LLF in community settings. The dataset includes data from smartphone and smartwatch sensors, motion detectors, sleep-tracking mattresses, and clinical questionnaires on isolation and decline. The dataset was collected from ten older adults living alone at home for eight weeks each, totaling 560 days of 24-hour sensor data. For technical validation, supervised machine-learning and deep-learning models were developed using the sensor and clinical questionnaire data, providing a foundational comparison for the research community.
Autoregressive Hidden Markov Models with partial knowledge on latent space applied to aero-engines prognostics
[This paper was initially published in PHME conference in 2016, selected for further publication in International Journal of Prognostics and Health Management.] This paper describes an Autoregressive Partially-hidden Markov model (ARPHMM) for fault detection and prognostics of equipments based on sensors' data. It is a particular dynamic Bayesian network that allows to represent the dynamics of a system by means of a Hidden Markov Model (HMM) and an autoregressive (AR) process. The Markov chain assumes that the system is switching back and forth between internal states while the AR process ensures a temporal coherence on sensor measurements. A sound learning procedure of standard ARHMM based on maximum likelihood allows to iteratively estimate all parameters simultaneously. This paper suggests a modification of the learning procedure considering that one may have prior knowledge about the structure which becomes partially hidden. The integration of the prior is based on the Theory of Weighted Distributions which is compatible with the Expectation-Maximization algorithm in the sense that the convergence properties are still satisfied. We show how to apply this model to estimate the remaining useful life based on health indicators. The autoregressive parameters can indeed be used for prediction while the latent structure can be used to get information about the degradation level. The interest of the proposed method for prognostics and health assessment is demonstrated on CMAPSS datasets.
Understanding the Impact of Long-Term Memory on Self-Disclosure with Large Language Model-Driven Chatbots for Public Health Intervention
Recent large language models (LLMs) offer the potential to support public health monitoring by facilitating health disclosure through open-ended conversations but rarely preserve the knowledge gained about individuals across repeated interactions. Augmenting LLMs with long-term memory (LTM) presents an opportunity to improve engagement and self-disclosure, but we lack an understanding of how LTM impacts people's interaction with LLM-driven chatbots in public health interventions. We examine the case of CareCall -- an LLM-driven voice chatbot with LTM -- through the analysis of 1,252 call logs and interviews with nine users. We found that LTM enhanced health disclosure and fostered positive perceptions of the chatbot by offering familiarity. However, we also observed challenges in promoting self-disclosure through LTM, particularly around addressing chronic health conditions and privacy concerns. We discuss considerations for LTM integration in LLM-driven chatbots for public health monitoring, including carefully deciding what topics need to be remembered in light of public health goals.
Model-Twin Randomization (MoTR): A Monte Carlo Method for Estimating the Within-Individual Average Treatment Effect Using Wearable Sensors
Temporally dense single-person "small data" have become widely available thanks to mobile apps and wearable sensors. Many caregivers and self-trackers want to use these data to help a specific person change their behavior to achieve desired health outcomes. Ideally, this involves discerning possible causes from correlations using that person's own observational time series data. In this paper, we estimate within-individual average treatment effects of physical activity on sleep duration, and vice-versa. We introduce the model twin randomization (MoTR; "motor") method for analyzing an individual's intensive longitudinal data. Formally, MoTR is an application of the g-formula (i.e., standardization, back-door adjustment) under serial interference. It estimates stable recurring effects, as is done in n-of-1 trials and single case experimental designs. We compare our approach to standard methods (with possible confounding) to show how to use causal inference to make better personalized recommendations for health behavior change, and analyze 222 days of Fitbit sleep and steps data for one of the authors.
TimelyGPT: Extrapolatable Transformer Pre-training for Long-term Time-Series Forecasting in Healthcare
Large-scale pre-trained models (PTMs) such as BERT and GPT have recently achieved great success in Natural Language Processing and Computer Vision domains. However, the development of PTMs on healthcare time-series data is lagging behind.This underscores the limitations of the existing transformer-based architectures, particularly their scalability to handle large-scale time series and ability to capture long-term temporal dependencies. In this study, we present Timely Generative Pre-trained Transformer (TimelyGPT). TimelyGPT employs an extrapolatable position (xPos) embedding to encode trend and periodic patterns into time-series representations. It also integrates recurrent attention and temporal convolution modules to effectively capture global-local temporal dependencies. We evaluated TimelyGPT on two large-scale healthcare time series datasets corresponding to continuous biosignals and irregularly-sampled time series, respectively. Our experiments show that during pre-training, TimelyGPT excels in learning time-series representations from continuously monitored biosignals and irregularly-sampled time series data commonly observed in longitudinal electronic health records (EHRs). In forecasting continuous biosignals, TimelyGPT achieves accurate extrapolation up to 6,000 timesteps of body temperature during the sleep stage transition, given a short look-up window (i.e., prompt) containing only 2,000 timesteps. For irregularly-sampled time series, TimelyGPT with a proposed time-specific inference demonstrates high top recall scores in predicting future diagnoses using early diagnostic records, effectively handling irregular intervals between clinical records. Together, we envision TimelyGPT to be useful in a broad spectrum of health domains, including long-term patient health state forecasting and patient risk trajectory prediction.
Integrating Wearable Sensor Data and Self-reported Diaries for Personalized Affect Forecasting
Emotional states, as indicators of affect, are pivotal to overall health, making their accurate prediction before onset crucial. Current studies are primarily centered on immediate short-term affect detection using data from wearable and mobile devices. These studies typically focus on objective sensory measures, often neglecting other forms of self-reported information like diaries and notes. In this paper, we propose a multimodal deep learning model for affect status forecasting. This model combines a transformer encoder with a pre-trained language model, facilitating the integrated analysis of objective metrics and self-reported diaries. To validate our model, we conduct a longitudinal study, enrolling college students and monitoring them over a year, to collect an extensive dataset including physiological, environmental, sleep, metabolic, and physical activity parameters, alongside open-ended textual diaries provided by the participants. Our results demonstrate that the proposed model achieves predictive accuracy of 82.50% for positive affect and 82.76% for negative affect, a full week in advance. The effectiveness of our model is further elevated by its explainability.
From Classification to Clinical Insights: Towards Analyzing and Reasoning About Mobile and Behavioral Health Data With Large Language Models
Passively collected behavioral health data from ubiquitous sensors holds significant promise to provide mental health professionals insights from patient's daily lives; however, developing analysis tools to use this data in clinical practice requires addressing challenges of generalization across devices and weak or ambiguous correlations between the measured signals and an individual's mental health. To address these challenges, we take a novel approach that leverages large language models (LLMs) to synthesize clinically useful insights from multi-sensor data. We develop chain of thought prompting methods that use LLMs to generate reasoning about how trends in data such as step count and sleep relate to conditions like depression and anxiety. We first demonstrate binary depression classification with LLMs achieving accuracies of 61.1% which exceed the state of the art. While it is not robust for clinical use, this leads us to our key finding: even more impactful and valued than classification is a new human-AI collaboration approach in which clinician experts interactively query these tools and combine their domain expertise and context about the patient with AI generated reasoning to support clinical decision-making. We find models like GPT-4 correctly reference numerical data 75% of the time, and clinician participants express strong interest in using this approach to interpret self-tracking data.
Automated Chronotyping from a Daily Calendar using Machine Learning
Chronotype compares individuals' circadian phase to others. It contextualizes mental health risk assessments and detection of social jet lag, which can hamper mental health and cognitive performance. Existing ways of determining chronotypes, such as Dim Light Melatonin Onset (DLMO) or the Morningness-Eveningness Questionnaire (MEQ), are limited by being discrete in time and time-intensive to update, meaning they rarely capture real-world variability across time. Chronotyping users based on a daily planner app might augment existing methods to enable assessment continuously and at scale. This paper reports the construction of a supervised binary classifier that attempts to demonstrate the feasibility of this approach. 1,460 registered users from the Owaves app opted in by filling out the MEQ survey between July 14, 2022, and May 1, 2023. 142 met the eligibility criteria. We used multimodal app data from individuals identified as morning and evening types from MEQ data, basing the classifier on app time series data. This included daily timing for 8 main lifestyle activity types: exercise, sleep, social interactions, meal times, relaxation, work, play, and miscellaneous, as defined in the app. The timing of activities showed substantial change across time, as well as heterogeneity by activity type. Our novel chronotyping classifier was able to predict the morningness and eveningness of its users with an ROC AUC of 0.70. Our findings demonstrate the feasibility of chronotype classification from multimodal, real-world app data, while highlighting fundamental challenges to applying discrete and fixed labels to complex, dynamic, multimodal behaviors. Our findings suggest a potential for real-time monitoring of shifts in chronotype specific to different causes (i.e. types of activity), which could feasibly be used to support future, prospective mental health support research.
Brain Latent Progression: Individual-based Spatiotemporal Disease Progression on 3D Brain MRIs via Latent Diffusion
The growing availability of longitudinal Magnetic Resonance Imaging (MRI) datasets has facilitated Artificial Intelligence (AI)-driven modeling of disease progression, making it possible to predict future medical scans for individual patients. However, despite significant advancements in AI, current methods continue to face challenges including achieving patient-specific individualization, ensuring spatiotemporal consistency, efficiently utilizing longitudinal data, and managing the substantial memory demands of 3D scans. To address these challenges, we propose Brain Latent Progression (BrLP), a novel spatiotemporal model designed to predict individual-level disease progression in 3D brain MRIs. The key contributions in BrLP are fourfold: (i) it operates in a small latent space, mitigating the computational challenges posed by high-dimensional imaging data; (ii) it explicitly integrates subject metadata to enhance the individualization of predictions; (iii) it incorporates prior knowledge of disease dynamics through an auxiliary model, facilitating the integration of longitudinal data; and (iv) it introduces the Latent Average Stabilization (LAS) algorithm, which (a) enforces spatiotemporal consistency in the predicted progression at inference time and (b) allows us to derive a measure of the uncertainty for the prediction at the global and voxel level. We train and evaluate BrLP on 11,730 T1-weighted (T1w) brain MRIs from 2,805 subjects and validate its generalizability on an external test set comprising 2,257 MRIs from 962 subjects. Our experiments compare BrLP-generated MRI scans with real follow-up MRIs, demonstrating state-of-the-art accuracy compared to existing methods. The code is publicly available at: https://github.com/LemuelPuglisi/BrLP.
ALPHA: AnomaLous Physiological Health Assessment Using Large Language Models
This study concentrates on evaluating the efficacy of Large Language Models (LLMs) in healthcare, with a specific focus on their application in personal anomalous health monitoring. Our research primarily investigates the capabilities of LLMs in interpreting and analyzing physiological data obtained from FDA-approved devices. We conducted an extensive analysis using anomalous physiological data gathered in a simulated low-air-pressure plateau environment. This allowed us to assess the precision and reliability of LLMs in understanding and evaluating users' health status with notable specificity. Our findings reveal that LLMs exhibit exceptional performance in determining medical indicators, including a Mean Absolute Error (MAE) of less than 1 beat per minute for heart rate and less than 1% for oxygen saturation (SpO2). Furthermore, the Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) for these evaluations remained below 1%, with the overall accuracy of health assessments surpassing 85%. In image analysis tasks, such as interpreting photoplethysmography (PPG) data, our specially adapted GPT models demonstrated remarkable proficiency, achieving less than 1 bpm error in cycle count and 7.28 MAE for heart rate estimation. This study highlights LLMs' dual role as health data analysis tools and pivotal elements in advanced AI health assistants, offering personalized health insights and recommendations within the future health assistant framework.
Wearable data from subjects playing Super Mario, sitting university exams, or performing physical exercise help detect acute mood episodes via self-supervised learning
Personal sensing, leveraging data passively and near-continuously collected with wearables from patients in their ecological environment, is a promising paradigm to monitor mood disorders (MDs), a major determinant of worldwide disease burden. However, collecting and annotating wearable data is very resource-intensive. Studies of this kind can thus typically afford to recruit only a couple dozens of patients. This constitutes one of the major obstacles to applying modern supervised machine learning techniques to MDs detection. In this paper, we overcome this data bottleneck and advance the detection of MDs acute episode vs stable state from wearables data on the back of recent advances in self-supervised learning (SSL). This leverages unlabelled data to learn representations during pre-training, subsequently exploited for a supervised task. First, we collected open-access datasets recording with an Empatica E4 spanning different, unrelated to MD monitoring, personal sensing tasks -- from emotion recognition in Super Mario players to stress detection in undergraduates -- and devised a pre-processing pipeline performing on-/off-body detection, sleep-wake detection, segmentation, and (optionally) feature extraction. With 161 E4-recorded subjects, we introduce E4SelfLearning, the largest to date open access collection, and its pre-processing pipeline. Second, we show that SSL confidently outperforms fully-supervised pipelines using either our novel E4-tailored Transformer architecture (E4mer) or classical baseline XGBoost: 81.23% against 75.35% (E4mer) and 72.02% (XGBoost) correctly classified recording segments from 64 (half acute, half stable) patients. Lastly, we illustrate that SSL performance is strongly associated with the specific surrogate task employed for pre-training as well as with unlabelled data availability.
Foresight -- Generative Pretrained Transformer (GPT) for Modelling of Patient Timelines using EHRs
Background: Electronic Health Records hold detailed longitudinal information about each patient's health status and general clinical history, a large portion of which is stored within the unstructured text. Existing approaches focus mostly on structured data and a subset of single-domain outcomes. We explore how temporal modelling of patients from free text and structured data, using deep generative transformers can be used to forecast a wide range of future disorders, substances, procedures or findings. Methods: We present Foresight, a novel transformer-based pipeline that uses named entity recognition and linking tools to convert document text into structured, coded concepts, followed by providing probabilistic forecasts for future medical events such as disorders, substances, procedures and findings. We processed the entire free-text portion from three different hospital datasets totalling 811336 patients covering both physical and mental health. Findings: On tests in two UK hospitals (King's College Hospital, South London and Maudsley) and the US MIMIC-III dataset precision@10 0.68, 0.76 and 0.88 was achieved for forecasting the next disorder in a patient timeline, while precision@10 of 0.80, 0.81 and 0.91 was achieved for forecasting the next biomedical concept. Foresight was also validated on 34 synthetic patient timelines by five clinicians and achieved relevancy of 97% for the top forecasted candidate disorder. As a generative model, it can forecast follow-on biomedical concepts for as many steps as required. Interpretation: Foresight is a general-purpose model for biomedical concept modelling that can be used for real-world risk forecasting, virtual trials and clinical research to study the progression of disorders, simulate interventions and counterfactuals, and educational purposes.
A Wearable Device Dataset for Mental Health Assessment Using Laser Doppler Flowmetry and Fluorescence Spectroscopy Sensors
In this study, we introduce a novel method to predict mental health by building machine learning models for a non-invasive wearable device equipped with Laser Doppler Flowmetry (LDF) and Fluorescence Spectroscopy (FS) sensors. Besides, we present the corresponding dataset to predict mental health, e.g. depression, anxiety, and stress levels via the DAS-21 questionnaire. To our best knowledge, this is the world's largest and the most generalized dataset ever collected for both LDF and FS studies. The device captures cutaneous blood microcirculation parameters, and wavelet analysis of the LDF signal extracts key rhythmic oscillations. The dataset, collected from 132 volunteers aged 18-94 from 19 countries, explores relationships between physiological features, demographics, lifestyle habits, and health conditions. We employed a variety of machine learning methods to classify stress detection, in which LightGBM is identified as the most effective model for stress detection, achieving a ROC AUC of 0.7168 and a PR AUC of 0.8852. In addition, we also incorporated Explainable Artificial Intelligence (XAI) techniques into our analysis to investigate deeper insights into the model's predictions. Our results suggest that females, younger individuals and those with a higher Body Mass Index (BMI) or heart rate have a greater likelihood of experiencing mental health conditions like stress and anxiety. All related code and data are published online: https://github.com/leduckhai/Wearable_LDF-FS.
ACR: A Benchmark for Automatic Cohort Retrieval
Identifying patient cohorts is fundamental to numerous healthcare tasks, including clinical trial recruitment and retrospective studies. Current cohort retrieval methods in healthcare organizations rely on automated queries of structured data combined with manual curation, which are time-consuming, labor-intensive, and often yield low-quality results. Recent advancements in large language models (LLMs) and information retrieval (IR) offer promising avenues to revolutionize these systems. Major challenges include managing extensive eligibility criteria and handling the longitudinal nature of unstructured Electronic Medical Records (EMRs) while ensuring that the solution remains cost-effective for real-world application. This paper introduces a new task, Automatic Cohort Retrieval (ACR), and evaluates the performance of LLMs and commercial, domain-specific neuro-symbolic approaches. We provide a benchmark task, a query dataset, an EMR dataset, and an evaluation framework. Our findings underscore the necessity for efficient, high-quality ACR systems capable of longitudinal reasoning across extensive patient databases.
Patient Trajectory Prediction: Integrating Clinical Notes with Transformers
Predicting disease trajectories from electronic health records (EHRs) is a complex task due to major challenges such as data non-stationarity, high granularity of medical codes, and integration of multimodal data. EHRs contain both structured data, such as diagnostic codes, and unstructured data, such as clinical notes, which hold essential information often overlooked. Current models, primarily based on structured data, struggle to capture the complete medical context of patients, resulting in a loss of valuable information. To address this issue, we propose an approach that integrates unstructured clinical notes into transformer-based deep learning models for sequential disease prediction. This integration enriches the representation of patients' medical histories, thereby improving the accuracy of diagnosis predictions. Experiments on MIMIC-IV datasets demonstrate that the proposed approach outperforms traditional models relying solely on structured data.
A Review of Longitudinal Radiology Report Generation: Dataset Composition, Methods, and Performance Evaluation
Chest Xray imaging is a widely used diagnostic tool in modern medicine, and its high utilization creates substantial workloads for radiologists. To alleviate this burden, vision language models are increasingly applied to automate Chest Xray radiology report generation (CXRRRG), aiming for clinically accurate descriptions while reducing manual effort. Conventional approaches, however, typically rely on single images, failing to capture the longitudinal context necessary for producing clinically faithful comparison statements. Recently, growing attention has been directed toward incorporating longitudinal data into CXR RRG, enabling models to leverage historical studies in ways that mirror radiologists diagnostic workflows. Nevertheless, existing surveys primarily address single image CXRRRG and offer limited guidance for longitudinal settings, leaving researchers without a systematic framework for model design. To address this gap, this survey provides the first comprehensive review of longitudinal radiology report generation (LRRG). Specifically, we examine dataset construction strategies, report generation architectures alongside longitudinally tailored designs, and evaluation protocols encompassing both longitudinal specific measures and widely used benchmarks. We further summarize LRRG methods performance, alongside analyses of different ablation studies, which collectively highlight the critical role of longitudinal information and architectural design choices in improving model performance. Finally, we summarize five major limitations of current research and outline promising directions for future development, aiming to lay a foundation for advancing this emerging field.
Self-supervision of wearable sensors time-series data for influenza detection
Self-supervision may boost model performance in downstream tasks. However, there is no principled way of selecting the self-supervised objectives that yield the most adaptable models. Here, we study this problem on daily time-series data generated from wearable sensors used to detect onset of influenza-like illness (ILI). We first show that using self-supervised learning to predict next-day time-series values allows us to learn rich representations which can be adapted to perform accurate ILI prediction. Second, we perform an empirical analysis of three different self-supervised objectives to assess their adaptability to ILI prediction. Our results show that predicting the next day's resting heart rate or time-in-bed during sleep provides better representations for ILI prediction. These findings add to previous work demonstrating the practical application of self-supervised learning from activity data to improve health predictions.
ULTra-AV: A Unified Longitudinal Trajectory Dataset for Automated Vehicle
Automated Vehicles (AVs) promise significant advances in transportation. Critical to these improvements is understanding AVs' longitudinal behavior, relying heavily on real-world trajectory data. Existing open-source trajectory datasets of AV, however, often fall short in refinement, reliability, and completeness, hindering effective performance metrics analysis and model development. This study addresses these challenges by creating a Unified Longitudinal TRAjectory dataset for AVs (Ultra-AV) to analyze their microscopic longitudinal driving behaviors. This dataset compiles data from 13 distinct sources, encompassing various AV types, test sites, and experiment scenarios. We established a three-step data processing: 1. extraction of longitudinal trajectory data, 2. general data cleaning, and 3. data-specific cleaning to obtain the longitudinal trajectory data and car-following trajectory data. The validity of the processed data is affirmed through performance evaluations across safety, mobility, stability, and sustainability, along with an analysis of the relationships between variables in car-following models. Our work not only furnishes researchers with standardized data and metrics for longitudinal AV behavior studies but also sets guidelines for data collection and model development.
Frequency Estimation of Evolving Data Under Local Differential Privacy
Collecting and analyzing evolving longitudinal data has become a common practice. One possible approach to protect the users' privacy in this context is to use local differential privacy (LDP) protocols, which ensure the privacy protection of all users even in the case of a breach or data misuse. Existing LDP data collection protocols such as Google's RAPPOR and Microsoft's dBitFlipPM can have longitudinal privacy linear to the domain size k, which is excessive for large domains, such as Internet domains. To solve this issue, in this paper we introduce a new LDP data collection protocol for longitudinal frequency monitoring named LOngitudinal LOcal HAshing (LOLOHA) with formal privacy guarantees. In addition, the privacy-utility trade-off of our protocol is only linear with respect to a reduced domain size 2leq g ll k. LOLOHA combines a domain reduction approach via local hashing with double randomization to minimize the privacy leakage incurred by data updates. As demonstrated by our theoretical analysis as well as our experimental evaluation, LOLOHA achieves a utility competitive to current state-of-the-art protocols, while substantially minimizing the longitudinal privacy budget consumption by up to k/g orders of magnitude.
Longitudinal Segmentation of MS Lesions via Temporal Difference Weighting
Accurate segmentation of Multiple Sclerosis (MS) lesions in longitudinal MRI scans is crucial for monitoring disease progression and treatment efficacy. Although changes across time are taken into account when assessing images in clinical practice, most existing deep learning methods treat scans from different timepoints separately. Among studies utilizing longitudinal images, a simple channel-wise concatenation is the primary albeit suboptimal method employed to integrate timepoints. We introduce a novel approach that explicitly incorporates temporal differences between baseline and follow-up scans through a unique architectural inductive bias called Difference Weighting Block. It merges features from two timepoints, emphasizing changes between scans. We achieve superior scores in lesion segmentation (Dice Score, Hausdorff distance) as well as lesion detection (lesion-level F_1 score) as compared to state-of-the-art longitudinal and single timepoint models across two datasets. Our code is made publicly available at www.github.com/MIC-DKFZ/Longitudinal-Difference-Weighting.
UrBAN: Urban Beehive Acoustics and PheNotyping Dataset
In this paper, we present a multimodal dataset obtained from a honey bee colony in Montr\'eal, Quebec, Canada, spanning the years of 2021 to 2022. This apiary comprised 10 beehives, with microphones recording more than 2000 hours of high quality raw audio, and also sensors capturing temperature, and humidity. Periodic hive inspections involved monitoring colony honey bee population changes, assessing queen-related conditions, and documenting overall hive health. Additionally, health metrics, such as Varroa mite infestation rates and winter mortality assessments were recorded, offering valuable insights into factors affecting hive health status and resilience. In this study, we first outline the data collection process, sensor data description, and dataset structure. Furthermore, we demonstrate a practical application of this dataset by extracting various features from the raw audio to predict colony population using the number of frames of bees as a proxy.
Benchmarking for Public Health Surveillance tasks on Social Media with a Domain-Specific Pretrained Language Model
A user-generated text on social media enables health workers to keep track of information, identify possible outbreaks, forecast disease trends, monitor emergency cases, and ascertain disease awareness and response to official health correspondence. This exchange of health information on social media has been regarded as an attempt to enhance public health surveillance (PHS). Despite its potential, the technology is still in its early stages and is not ready for widespread application. Advancements in pretrained language models (PLMs) have facilitated the development of several domain-specific PLMs and a variety of downstream applications. However, there are no PLMs for social media tasks involving PHS. We present and release PHS-BERT, a transformer-based PLM, to identify tasks related to public health surveillance on social media. We compared and benchmarked the performance of PHS-BERT on 25 datasets from different social medial platforms related to 7 different PHS tasks. Compared with existing PLMs that are mainly evaluated on limited tasks, PHS-BERT achieved state-of-the-art performance on all 25 tested datasets, showing that our PLM is robust and generalizable in the common PHS tasks. By making PHS-BERT available, we aim to facilitate the community to reduce the computational cost and introduce new baselines for future works across various PHS-related tasks.
GPT4Battery: An LLM-driven Framework for Adaptive State of Health Estimation of Raw Li-ion Batteries
State of health (SOH) is a crucial indicator for assessing the degradation level of batteries that cannot be measured directly but requires estimation. Accurate SOH estimation enhances detection, control, and feedback for Li-ion batteries, allowing for safe and efficient energy management and guiding the development of new-generation batteries. Despite the significant progress in data-driven SOH estimation, the time and resource-consuming degradation experiments for generating lifelong training data pose a challenge in establishing one large model capable of handling diverse types of Li-ion batteries, e.g., cross-chemistry, cross-manufacturer, and cross-capacity. Hence, this paper utilizes the strong generalization capability of large language model (LLM) to proposes a novel framework for adaptable SOH estimation across diverse batteries. To match the real scenario where unlabeled data sequentially arrives in use with distribution shifts, the proposed model is modified by a test-time training technique to ensure estimation accuracy even at the battery's end of life. The validation results demonstrate that the proposed framework achieves state-of-the-art accuracy on four widely recognized datasets collected from 62 batteries. Furthermore, we analyze the theoretical challenges of cross-battery estimation and provide a quantitative explanation of the effectiveness of our method.
PhysioLLM: Supporting Personalized Health Insights with Wearables and Large Language Models
We present PhysioLLM, an interactive system that leverages large language models (LLMs) to provide personalized health understanding and exploration by integrating physiological data from wearables with contextual information. Unlike commercial health apps for wearables, our system offers a comprehensive statistical analysis component that discovers correlations and trends in user data, allowing users to ask questions in natural language and receive generated personalized insights, and guides them to develop actionable goals. As a case study, we focus on improving sleep quality, given its measurability through physiological data and its importance to general well-being. Through a user study with 24 Fitbit watch users, we demonstrate that PhysioLLM outperforms both the Fitbit App alone and a generic LLM chatbot in facilitating a deeper, personalized understanding of health data and supporting actionable steps toward personal health goals.
Enhanced Contrastive Learning with Multi-view Longitudinal Data for Chest X-ray Report Generation
Automated radiology report generation offers an effective solution to alleviate radiologists' workload. However, most existing methods focus primarily on single or fixed-view images to model current disease conditions, which limits diagnostic accuracy and overlooks disease progression. Although some approaches utilize longitudinal data to track disease progression, they still rely on single images to analyze current visits. To address these issues, we propose enhanced contrastive learning with Multi-view Longitudinal data to facilitate chest X-ray Report Generation, named MLRG. Specifically, we introduce a multi-view longitudinal contrastive learning method that integrates spatial information from current multi-view images and temporal information from longitudinal data. This method also utilizes the inherent spatiotemporal information of radiology reports to supervise the pre-training of visual and textual representations. Subsequently, we present a tokenized absence encoding technique to flexibly handle missing patient-specific prior knowledge, allowing the model to produce more accurate radiology reports based on available prior knowledge. Extensive experiments on MIMIC-CXR, MIMIC-ABN, and Two-view CXR datasets demonstrate that our MLRG outperforms recent state-of-the-art methods, achieving a 2.3% BLEU-4 improvement on MIMIC-CXR, a 5.5% F1 score improvement on MIMIC-ABN, and a 2.7% F1 RadGraph improvement on Two-view CXR.
Temporal Label Smoothing for Early Event Prediction
Models that can predict the occurrence of events ahead of time with low false-alarm rates are critical to the acceptance of decision support systems in the medical community. This challenging task is typically treated as a simple binary classification, ignoring temporal dependencies between samples, whereas we propose to exploit this structure. We first introduce a common theoretical framework unifying dynamic survival analysis and early event prediction. Following an analysis of objectives from both fields, we propose Temporal Label Smoothing (TLS), a simpler, yet best-performing method that preserves prediction monotonicity over time. By focusing the objective on areas with a stronger predictive signal, TLS improves performance over all baselines on two large-scale benchmark tasks. Gains are particularly notable along clinically relevant measures, such as event recall at low false-alarm rates. TLS reduces the number of missed events by up to a factor of two over previously used approaches in early event prediction.
Longitudinal prediction of DNA methylation to forecast epigenetic outcomes
Interrogating the evolution of biological changes at early stages of life requires longitudinal profiling of molecules, such as DNA methylation, which can be challenging with children. We introduce a probabilistic and longitudinal machine learning framework based on multi-mean Gaussian processes (GPs), accounting for individual and gene correlations across time. This method provides future predictions of DNA methylation status at different individual ages while accounting for uncertainty. Our model is trained on a birth cohort of children with methylation profiled at ages 0-4, and we demonstrated that the status of methylation sites for each child can be accurately predicted at ages 5-7. We show that methylation profiles predicted by multi-mean GPs can be used to estimate other phenotypes, such as epigenetic age, and enable comparison to other health measures of interest. This approach encourages epigenetic studies to move towards longitudinal design for investigating epigenetic changes during development, ageing and disease progression.
Measuring the Stability of EHR- and EKG-based Predictive Models
Databases of electronic health records (EHRs) are increasingly used to inform clinical decisions. Machine learning methods can find patterns in EHRs that are predictive of future adverse outcomes. However, statistical models may be built upon patterns of health-seeking behavior that vary across patient subpopulations, leading to poor predictive performance when training on one patient population and predicting on another. This note proposes two tests to better measure and understand model generalization. We use these tests to compare models derived from two data sources: (i) historical medical records, and (ii) electrocardiogram (EKG) waveforms. In a predictive task, we show that EKG-based models can be more stable than EHR-based models across different patient populations.
A Corpus for Detecting High-Context Medical Conditions in Intensive Care Patient Notes Focusing on Frequently Readmitted Patients
A crucial step within secondary analysis of electronic health records (EHRs) is to identify the patient cohort under investigation. While EHRs contain medical billing codes that aim to represent the conditions and treatments patients may have, much of the information is only present in the patient notes. Therefore, it is critical to develop robust algorithms to infer patients' conditions and treatments from their written notes. In this paper, we introduce a dataset for patient phenotyping, a task that is defined as the identification of whether a patient has a given medical condition (also referred to as clinical indication or phenotype) based on their patient note. Nursing Progress Notes and Discharge Summaries from the Intensive Care Unit of a large tertiary care hospital were manually annotated for the presence of several high-context phenotypes relevant to treatment and risk of re-hospitalization. This dataset contains 1102 Discharge Summaries and 1000 Nursing Progress Notes. Each Discharge Summary and Progress Note has been annotated by at least two expert human annotators (one clinical researcher and one resident physician). Annotated phenotypes include treatment non-adherence, chronic pain, advanced/metastatic cancer, as well as 10 other phenotypes. This dataset can be utilized for academic and industrial research in medicine and computer science, particularly within the field of medical natural language processing.
mind_call: A Dataset for Mental Health Function Calling with Large Language Models
Large Language Model (LLM)-based systems increasingly rely on function calling to enable structured and controllable interaction with external data sources, yet existing datasets do not address mental health-oriented access to wearable sensor data. This paper presents a synthetic function-calling dataset designed for mental health assistance grounded in wearable health signals such as sleep, physical activity, cardiovascular measures, stress indicators, and metabolic data. The dataset maps diverse natural language queries to standardized API calls derived from a widely adopted health data schema. Each sample includes a user query, a query category, an explicit reasoning step, a normalized temporal parameter, and a target function. The dataset covers explicit, implicit, behavioral, symptom-based, and metaphorical expressions, which reflect realistic mental health-related user interactions. This resource supports research on intent grounding, temporal reasoning, and reliable function invocation in LLM-based mental health agents and is publicly released to promote reproducibility and future work.
Artificial Intelligence-derived Vascular Age from Photoplethysmography: A Novel Digital Biomarker for Cardiovascular Health
With the increasing availability of wearable devices, photoplethysmography (PPG) has emerged as a promising non-invasive tool for monitoring human hemodynamics. We propose a deep learning framework to estimate vascular age (AI-vascular age) from PPG signals, incorporating a distribution-aware loss to address biases caused by imbalanced data. The model was developed using data from the UK Biobank (UKB), with 98,672 participants in the development cohort and 113,559 participants (144,683 data pairs) for clinical evaluation. After adjusting for key confounders, individuals with a vascular age gap (AI-vascular age minus calendar age) exceeding 9 years had a significantly higher risk of major adverse cardiovascular and cerebrovascular events (MACCE) (HR = 2.37, p < 0.005) and secondary outcomes, including diabetes (HR = 2.69, p < 0.005), hypertension (HR = 2.88, p < 0.005), coronary heart disease (HR = 2.20, p < 0.005), heart failure (HR = 2.15, p < 0.005), myocardial infarction (HR = 2.51, p < 0.005), stroke (HR = 2.55, p < 0.005), and all-cause mortality (HR = 2.51, p < 0.005). Conversely, participants with a vascular age gap below -9 years exhibited a significantly lower incidence of these outcomes. We further evaluated the longitudinal applicability of AI-vascular age using serial PPG data from the UKB, demonstrating its value in risk stratification by leveraging AI-vascular age at two distinct time points to predict future MACCE incidence. External validation was performed on a MIMIC-III-derived cohort (n = 2,343), where each one-year increase in vascular age gap was significantly associated with elevated in-hospital mortality risk (OR = 1.02, p < 0.005). In conclusion, our study establishes AI-vascular age as a novel, non-invasive digital biomarker for cardiovascular health assessment.
I-GLIDE: Input Groups for Latent Health Indicators in Degradation Estimation
Accurate remaining useful life (RUL) prediction hinges on the quality of health indicators (HIs), yet existing methods often fail to disentangle complex degradation mechanisms in multi-sensor systems or quantify uncertainty in HI reliability. This paper introduces a novel framework for HI construction, advancing three key contributions. First, we adapt Reconstruction along Projected Pathways (RaPP) as a health indicator (HI) for RUL prediction for the first time, showing that it outperforms traditional reconstruction error metrics. Second, we show that augmenting RaPP-derived HIs with aleatoric and epistemic uncertainty quantification (UQ) via Monte Carlo dropout and probabilistic latent spaces- significantly improves RUL-prediction robustness. Third, and most critically, we propose indicator groups, a paradigm that isolates sensor subsets to model system-specific degradations, giving rise to our novel method, I-GLIDE which enables interpretable, mechanism-specific diagnostics. Evaluated on data sourced from aerospace and manufacturing systems, our approach achieves marked improvements in accuracy and generalizability compared to state-of-the-art HI methods while providing actionable insights into system failure pathways. This work bridges the gap between anomaly detection and prognostics, offering a principled framework for uncertainty-aware degradation modeling in complex systems.
HeAR -- Health Acoustic Representations
Health acoustic sounds such as coughs and breaths are known to contain useful health signals with significant potential for monitoring health and disease, yet are underexplored in the medical machine learning community. The existing deep learning systems for health acoustics are often narrowly trained and evaluated on a single task, which is limited by data and may hinder generalization to other tasks. To mitigate these gaps, we develop HeAR, a scalable self-supervised learning-based deep learning system using masked autoencoders trained on a large dataset of 313 million two-second long audio clips. Through linear probes, we establish HeAR as a state-of-the-art health audio embedding model on a benchmark of 33 health acoustic tasks across 6 datasets. By introducing this work, we hope to enable and accelerate further health acoustics research.
Beyond Sensor Data: Foundation Models of Behavioral Data from Wearables Improve Health Predictions
Wearable devices record physiological and behavioral signals that can improve health predictions. While foundation models are increasingly used for such predictions, they have been primarily applied to low-level sensor data, despite behavioral data often being more informative due to their alignment with physiologically relevant timescales and quantities. We develop foundation models of such behavioral signals using over 2.5B hours of wearable data from 162K individuals, systematically optimizing architectures and tokenization strategies for this unique dataset. Evaluated on 57 health-related tasks, our model shows strong performance across diverse real-world applications including individual-level classification and time-varying health state prediction. The model excels in behavior-driven tasks like sleep prediction, and improves further when combined with representations of raw sensor data. These results underscore the importance of tailoring foundation model design to wearables and demonstrate the potential to enable new health applications.
Predicting the Flu from Instagram
Conventional surveillance systems for monitoring infectious diseases, such as influenza, face challenges due to shortage of skilled healthcare professionals, remoteness of communities and absence of communication infrastructures. Internet-based approaches for surveillance are appealing logistically as well as economically. Search engine queries and Twitter have been the primarily used data sources in such approaches. The aim of this study is to assess the predictive power of an alternative data source, Instagram. By using 317 weeks of publicly available data from Instagram, we trained several machine learning algorithms to both nowcast and forecast the number of official influenza-like illness incidents in Finland where population-wide official statistics about the weekly incidents are available. In addition to date and hashtag count features of online posts, we were able to utilize also the visual content of the posted images with the help of deep convolutional neural networks. Our best nowcasting model reached a mean absolute error of 11.33 incidents per week and a correlation coefficient of 0.963 on the test data. Forecasting models for predicting 1 week and 2 weeks ahead showed statistical significance as well by reaching correlation coefficients of 0.903 and 0.862, respectively. This study demonstrates how social media and in particular, digital photographs shared in them, can be a valuable source of information for the field of infodemiology.
Improving the utility of locally differentially private protocols for longitudinal and multidimensional frequency estimates
This paper investigates the problem of collecting multidimensional data throughout time (i.e., longitudinal studies) for the fundamental task of frequency estimation under Local Differential Privacy (LDP) guarantees. Contrary to frequency estimation of a single attribute, the multidimensional aspect demands particular attention to the privacy budget. Besides, when collecting user statistics longitudinally, privacy progressively degrades. Indeed, the "multiple" settings in combination (i.e., many attributes and several collections throughout time) impose several challenges, for which this paper proposes the first solution for frequency estimates under LDP. To tackle these issues, we extend the analysis of three state-of-the-art LDP protocols (Generalized Randomized Response -- GRR, Optimized Unary Encoding -- OUE, and Symmetric Unary Encoding -- SUE) for both longitudinal and multidimensional data collections. While the known literature uses OUE and SUE for two rounds of sanitization (a.k.a. memoization), i.e., L-OUE and L-SUE, respectively, we analytically and experimentally show that starting with OUE and then with SUE provides higher data utility (i.e., L-OSUE). Also, for attributes with small domain sizes, we propose Longitudinal GRR (L-GRR), which provides higher utility than the other protocols based on unary encoding. Last, we also propose a new solution named Adaptive LDP for LOngitudinal and Multidimensional FREquency Estimates (ALLOMFREE), which randomly samples a single attribute to be sent with the whole privacy budget and adaptively selects the optimal protocol, i.e., either L-GRR or L-OSUE. As shown in the results, ALLOMFREE consistently and considerably outperforms the state-of-the-art L-SUE and L-OUE protocols in the quality of the frequency estimates.
Longitudinal Data and a Semantic Similarity Reward for Chest X-Ray Report Generation
Chest X-Ray (CXR) report generation is a promising approach to improving the efficiency of CXR interpretation. However, a significant increase in diagnostic accuracy is required before that can be realised. Motivated by this, we propose a framework that is more inline with a radiologist's workflow by considering longitudinal data. Here, the decoder is additionally conditioned on the report from the subject's previous imaging study via a prompt. We also propose a new reward for reinforcement learning based on CXR-BERT, which computes the similarity between reports. We conduct experiments on the MIMIC-CXR dataset. The results indicate that longitudinal data improves CXR report generation. CXR-BERT is also shown to be a promising alternative to the current state-of-the-art reward based on RadGraph. This investigation indicates that longitudinal CXR report generation can offer a substantial increase in diagnostic accuracy. Our Hugging Face model is available at: https://huggingface.co/aehrc/cxrmate and code is available at: https://github.com/aehrc/cxrmate.
DiaTrend: A dataset from advanced diabetes technology to enable development of novel analytic solutions
Objective digital data is scarce yet needed in many domains to enable research that can transform the standard of healthcare. While data from consumer-grade wearables and smartphones is more accessible, there is critical need for similar data from clinical-grade devices used by patients with a diagnosed condition. The prevalence of wearable medical devices in the diabetes domain sets the stage for unique research and development within this field and beyond. However, the scarcity of open-source datasets presents a major barrier to progress. To facilitate broader research on diabetes-relevant problems and accelerate development of robust computational solutions, we provide the DiaTrend dataset. The DiaTrend dataset is composed of intensive longitudinal data from wearable medical devices, including a total of 27,561 days of continuous glucose monitor data and 8,220 days of insulin pump data from 54 patients with diabetes. This dataset is useful for developing novel analytic solutions that can reduce the disease burden for people living with diabetes and increase knowledge on chronic condition management in outpatient settings.
HR-VILAGE-3K3M: A Human Respiratory Viral Immunization Longitudinal Gene Expression Dataset for Systems Immunity
Respiratory viral infections pose a global health burden, yet the cellular immune responses driving protection or pathology remain unclear. Natural infection cohorts often lack pre-exposure baseline data and structured temporal sampling. In contrast, inoculation and vaccination trials generate insightful longitudinal transcriptomic data. However, the scattering of these datasets across platforms, along with inconsistent metadata and preprocessing procedure, hinders AI-driven discovery. To address these challenges, we developed the Human Respiratory Viral Immunization LongitudinAl Gene Expression (HR-VILAGE-3K3M) repository: an AI-ready, rigorously curated dataset that integrates 14,136 RNA-seq profiles from 3,178 subjects across 66 studies encompassing over 2.56 million cells. Spanning vaccination, inoculation, and mixed exposures, the dataset includes microarray, bulk RNA-seq, and single-cell RNA-seq from whole blood, PBMCs, and nasal swabs, sourced from GEO, ImmPort, and ArrayExpress. We harmonized subject-level metadata, standardized outcome measures, applied unified preprocessing pipelines with rigorous quality control, and aligned all data to official gene symbols. To demonstrate the utility of HR-VILAGE-3K3M, we performed predictive modeling of vaccine responders and evaluated batch-effect correction methods. Beyond these initial demonstrations, it supports diverse systems immunology applications and benchmarking of feature selection and transfer learning algorithms. Its scale and heterogeneity also make it ideal for pretraining foundation models of the human immune response and for advancing multimodal learning frameworks. As the largest longitudinal transcriptomic resource for human respiratory viral immunization, it provides an accessible platform for reproducible AI-driven research, accelerating systems immunology and vaccine development against emerging viral threats.
Beyond Low Earth Orbit: Biomonitoring, Artificial Intelligence, and Precision Space Health
Human space exploration beyond low Earth orbit will involve missions of significant distance and duration. To effectively mitigate myriad space health hazards, paradigm shifts in data and space health systems are necessary to enable Earth-independence, rather than Earth-reliance. Promising developments in the fields of artificial intelligence and machine learning for biology and health can address these needs. We propose an appropriately autonomous and intelligent Precision Space Health system that will monitor, aggregate, and assess biomedical statuses; analyze and predict personalized adverse health outcomes; adapt and respond to newly accumulated data; and provide preventive, actionable, and timely insights to individual deep space crew members and iterative decision support to their crew medical officer. Here we present a summary of recommendations from a workshop organized by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration, on future applications of artificial intelligence in space biology and health. In the next decade, biomonitoring technology, biomarker science, spacecraft hardware, intelligent software, and streamlined data management must mature and be woven together into a Precision Space Health system to enable humanity to thrive in deep space.
Gaze into the Heart: A Multi-View Video Dataset for rPPG and Health Biomarkers Estimation
Progress in remote PhotoPlethysmoGraphy (rPPG) is limited by the critical issues of existing publicly available datasets: small size, privacy concerns with facial videos, and lack of diversity in conditions. The paper introduces a novel comprehensive large-scale multi-view video dataset for rPPG and health biomarkers estimation. Our dataset comprises 3600 synchronized video recordings from 600 subjects, captured under varied conditions (resting and post-exercise) using multiple consumer-grade cameras at different angles. To enable multimodal analysis of physiological states, each recording is paired with a 100 Hz PPG signal and extended health metrics, such as electrocardiogram, arterial blood pressure, biomarkers, temperature, oxygen saturation, respiratory rate, and stress level. Using this data, we train an efficient rPPG model and compare its quality with existing approaches in cross-dataset scenarios. The public release of our dataset and model should significantly speed up the progress in the development of AI medical assistants.
AIMI: Leveraging Future Knowledge and Personalization in Sparse Event Forecasting for Treatment Adherence
Adherence to prescribed treatments is crucial for individuals with chronic conditions to avoid costly or adverse health outcomes. For certain patient groups, intensive lifestyle interventions are vital for enhancing medication adherence. Accurate forecasting of treatment adherence can open pathways to developing an on-demand intervention tool, enabling timely and personalized support. With the increasing popularity of smartphones and wearables, it is now easier than ever to develop and deploy smart activity monitoring systems. However, effective forecasting systems for treatment adherence based on wearable sensors are still not widely available. We close this gap by proposing Adherence Forecasting and Intervention with Machine Intelligence (AIMI). AIMI is a knowledge-guided adherence forecasting system that leverages smartphone sensors and previous medication history to estimate the likelihood of forgetting to take a prescribed medication. A user study was conducted with 27 participants who took daily medications to manage their cardiovascular diseases. We designed and developed CNN and LSTM-based forecasting models with various combinations of input features and found that LSTM models can forecast medication adherence with an accuracy of 0.932 and an F-1 score of 0.936. Moreover, through a series of ablation studies involving convolutional and recurrent neural network architectures, we demonstrate that leveraging known knowledge about future and personalized training enhances the accuracy of medication adherence forecasting. Code available: https://github.com/ab9mamun/AIMI.
Progress Note Understanding -- Assessment and Plan Reasoning: Overview of the 2022 N2C2 Track 3 Shared Task
Daily progress notes are common types in the electronic health record (EHR) where healthcare providers document the patient's daily progress and treatment plans. The EHR is designed to document all the care provided to patients, but it also enables note bloat with extraneous information that distracts from the diagnoses and treatment plans. Applications of natural language processing (NLP) in the EHR is a growing field with the majority of methods in information extraction. Few tasks use NLP methods for downstream diagnostic decision support. We introduced the 2022 National NLP Clinical Challenge (N2C2) Track 3: Progress Note Understanding - Assessment and Plan Reasoning as one step towards a new suite of tasks. The Assessment and Plan Reasoning task focuses on the most critical components of progress notes, Assessment and Plan subsections where health problems and diagnoses are contained. The goal of the task was to develop and evaluate NLP systems that automatically predict causal relations between the overall status of the patient contained in the Assessment section and its relation to each component of the Plan section which contains the diagnoses and treatment plans. The goal of the task was to identify and prioritize diagnoses as the first steps in diagnostic decision support to find the most relevant information in long documents like daily progress notes. We present the results of 2022 n2c2 Track 3 and provide a description of the data, evaluation, participation and system performance.
Extending Mixture of Experts Model to Investigate Heterogeneity of Trajectories: When, Where and How to Add Which Covariates
Researchers are usually interested in examining the impact of covariates when separating heterogeneous samples into latent classes that are more homogeneous. The majority of theoretical and empirical studies with such aims have focused on identifying covariates as predictors of class membership in the structural equation modeling framework. In other words, the covariates only indirectly affect the sample heterogeneity. However, the covariates' influence on between-individual differences can also be direct. This article presents a mixture model that investigates covariates to explain within-cluster and between-cluster heterogeneity simultaneously, known as a mixture-of-experts (MoE) model. This study aims to extend the MoE framework to investigate heterogeneity in nonlinear trajectories: to identify latent classes, covariates as predictors to clusters, and covariates that explain within-cluster differences in change patterns over time. Our simulation studies demonstrate that the proposed model generally estimates the parameters unbiasedly, precisely and exhibits appropriate empirical coverage for a nominal 95% confidence interval. This study also proposes implementing structural equation model forests to shrink the covariate space of the proposed mixture model. We illustrate how to select covariates and construct the proposed model with longitudinal mathematics achievement data. Additionally, we demonstrate that the proposed mixture model can be further extended in the structural equation modeling framework by allowing the covariates that have direct effects to be time-varying.
Medical Concept Representation Learning from Electronic Health Records and its Application on Heart Failure Prediction
Objective: To transform heterogeneous clinical data from electronic health records into clinically meaningful constructed features using data driven method that rely, in part, on temporal relations among data. Materials and Methods: The clinically meaningful representations of medical concepts and patients are the key for health analytic applications. Most of existing approaches directly construct features mapped to raw data (e.g., ICD or CPT codes), or utilize some ontology mapping such as SNOMED codes. However, none of the existing approaches leverage EHR data directly for learning such concept representation. We propose a new way to represent heterogeneous medical concepts (e.g., diagnoses, medications and procedures) based on co-occurrence patterns in longitudinal electronic health records. The intuition behind the method is to map medical concepts that are co-occuring closely in time to similar concept vectors so that their distance will be small. We also derive a simple method to construct patient vectors from the related medical concept vectors. Results: For qualitative evaluation, we study similar medical concepts across diagnosis, medication and procedure. In quantitative evaluation, our proposed representation significantly improves the predictive modeling performance for onset of heart failure (HF), where classification methods (e.g. logistic regression, neural network, support vector machine and K-nearest neighbors) achieve up to 23% improvement in area under the ROC curve (AUC) using this proposed representation. Conclusion: We proposed an effective method for patient and medical concept representation learning. The resulting representation can map relevant concepts together and also improves predictive modeling performance.
SMHD: A Large-Scale Resource for Exploring Online Language Usage for Multiple Mental Health Conditions
Mental health is a significant and growing public health concern. As language usage can be leveraged to obtain crucial insights into mental health conditions, there is a need for large-scale, labeled, mental health-related datasets of users who have been diagnosed with one or more of such conditions. In this paper, we investigate the creation of high-precision patterns to identify self-reported diagnoses of nine different mental health conditions, and obtain high-quality labeled data without the need for manual labelling. We introduce the SMHD (Self-reported Mental Health Diagnoses) dataset and make it available. SMHD is a novel large dataset of social media posts from users with one or multiple mental health conditions along with matched control users. We examine distinctions in users' language, as measured by linguistic and psychological variables. We further explore text classification methods to identify individuals with mental conditions through their language.
Incremental Semi-supervised Federated Learning for Health Inference via Mobile Sensing
Mobile sensing appears as a promising solution for health inference problem (e.g., influenza-like symptom recognition) by leveraging diverse smart sensors to capture fine-grained information about human behaviors and ambient contexts. Centralized training of machine learning models can place mobile users' sensitive information under privacy risks due to data breach and misexploitation. Federated Learning (FL) enables mobile devices to collaboratively learn global models without the exposure of local private data. However, there are challenges of on-device FL deployment using mobile sensing: 1) long-term and continuously collected mobile sensing data may exhibit domain shifts as sensing objects (e.g. humans) have varying behaviors as a result of internal and/or external stimulus; 2) model retraining using all available data may increase computation and memory burden; and 3) the sparsity of annotated crowd-sourced data causes supervised FL to lack robustness. In this work, we propose FedMobile, an incremental semi-supervised federated learning algorithm, to train models semi-supervisedly and incrementally in a decentralized online fashion. We evaluate FedMobile using a real-world mobile sensing dataset for influenza-like symptom recognition. Our empirical results show that FedMobile-trained models achieve the best results in comparison to the selected baseline methods.
Multimodal Foundation Models for Early Disease Detection
Healthcare data now span EHRs, medical imaging, genomics, and wearable sensors, but most diagnostic models still process these modalities in isolation. This limits their ability to capture early, cross-modal disease signatures. This paper introduces a multimodal foundation model built on a transformer architecture that integrates heterogeneous clinical data through modality-specific encoders and cross-modal attention. Each modality is mapped into a shared latent space and fused using multi-head attention with residual normalization. We implement the framework using a multimodal dataset that simulates early-stage disease patterns across EHR sequences, imaging patches, genomic profiles, and wearable signals, including missing-modality scenarios and label noise. The model is trained using supervised classification together with self-supervised reconstruction and contrastive alignment to improve robustness. Experimental evaluation demonstrates strong performance in early-detection settings, with stable classification metrics, reliable uncertainty estimates, and interpretable attention patterns. The approach moves toward a flexible, pretrain-and-fine-tune foundation model that supports precision diagnostics, handles incomplete inputs, and improves early disease detection across oncology, cardiology, and neurology applications.
ImageFlowNet: Forecasting Multiscale Image-Level Trajectories of Disease Progression with Irregularly-Sampled Longitudinal Medical Images
Advances in medical imaging technologies have enabled the collection of longitudinal images, which involve repeated scanning of the same patients over time, to monitor disease progression. However, predictive modeling of such data remains challenging due to high dimensionality, irregular sampling, and data sparsity. To address these issues, we propose ImageFlowNet, a novel model designed to forecast disease trajectories from initial images while preserving spatial details. ImageFlowNet first learns multiscale joint representation spaces across patients and time points, then optimizes deterministic or stochastic flow fields within these spaces using a position-parameterized neural ODE/SDE framework. The model leverages a UNet architecture to create robust multiscale representations and mitigates data scarcity by combining knowledge from all patients. We provide theoretical insights that support our formulation of ODEs, and motivate our regularizations involving high-level visual features, latent space organization, and trajectory smoothness. We validate ImageFlowNet on three longitudinal medical image datasets depicting progression in geographic atrophy, multiple sclerosis, and glioblastoma, demonstrating its ability to effectively forecast disease progression and outperform existing methods. Our contributions include the development of ImageFlowNet, its theoretical underpinnings, and empirical validation on real-world datasets. The official implementation is available at https://github.com/KrishnaswamyLab/ImageFlowNet.
Dementia-R1: Reinforced Pretraining and Reasoning from Unstructured Clinical Notes for Real-World Dementia Prognosis
While Large Language Models (LLMs) have shown strong performance on clinical text understanding, they struggle with longitudinal prediction tasks such as dementia prognosis, which require reasoning over complex, non-monotonic symptom trajectories across multiple visits. Standard supervised training lacks explicit annotations for symptom evolution, while direct Reinforcement Learning (RL) is hindered by sparse binary rewards. To address this challenge, we introduce Dementia-R1, an RL-based framework for longitudinal dementia prognosis from unstructured clinical notes. Our approach adopts a Cold-Start RL strategy that pre-trains the model to predict verifiable clinical indices extracted from patient histories, enhancing the capability to reason about disease progression before determining the final clinical status. Extensive experiments demonstrate that Dementia-R1 achieves an F1 score of 77.03% on real-world unstructured clinical datasets. Notably, on the ADNI benchmark, our 7B model rivals GPT-4o, effectively capturing fluctuating cognitive trajectories. Code is available at https://anonymous.4open.science/r/dementiar1-CDB5
Uncertainty Quantification as a Complementary Latent Health Indicator for Remaining Useful Life Prediction on Turbofan Engines
Health Indicators (HIs) are essential for predicting system failures in predictive maintenance. While methods like RaPP (Reconstruction along Projected Pathways) improve traditional HI approaches by leveraging autoencoder latent spaces, their performance can be hindered by both aleatoric and epistemic uncertainties. In this paper, we propose a novel framework that integrates uncertainty quantification into autoencoder-based latent spaces, enhancing RaPP-generated HIs. We demonstrate that separating aleatoric uncertainty from epistemic uncertainty and cross combining HI information is the driver of accuracy improvements in Remaining Useful Life (RUL) prediction. Our method employs both standard and variational autoencoders to construct these HIs, which are then used to train a machine learning model for RUL prediction. Benchmarked on the NASA C-MAPSS turbofan dataset, our approach outperforms traditional HI-based methods and end-to-end RUL prediction models and is competitive with RUL estimation methods. These results underscore the importance of uncertainty quantification in health assessment and showcase its significant impact on predictive performance when incorporated into the HI construction process.
Generative models for wearables data
Data scarcity is a common obstacle in medical research due to the high costs associated with data collection and the complexity of gaining access to and utilizing data. Synthesizing health data may provide an efficient and cost-effective solution to this shortage, enabling researchers to explore distributions and populations that are not represented in existing observations or difficult to access due to privacy considerations. To that end, we have developed a multi-task self-attention model that produces realistic wearable activity data. We examine the characteristics of the generated data and quantify its similarity to genuine samples with both quantitative and qualitative approaches.
Dual Meta-Learning with Longitudinally Generalized Regularization for One-Shot Brain Tissue Segmentation Across the Human Lifespan
Brain tissue segmentation is essential for neuroscience and clinical studies. However, segmentation on longitudinal data is challenging due to dynamic brain changes across the lifespan. Previous researches mainly focus on self-supervision with regularizations and will lose longitudinal generalization when fine-tuning on a specific age group. In this paper, we propose a dual meta-learning paradigm to learn longitudinally consistent representations and persist when fine-tuning. Specifically, we learn a plug-and-play feature extractor to extract longitudinal-consistent anatomical representations by meta-feature learning and a well-initialized task head for fine-tuning by meta-initialization learning. Besides, two class-aware regularizations are proposed to encourage longitudinal consistency. Experimental results on the iSeg2019 and ADNI datasets demonstrate the effectiveness of our method. Our code is available at https://github.com/ladderlab-xjtu/DuMeta.
Real-time accident detection and physiological signal monitoring to enhance motorbike safety and emergency response
Rapid urbanization and improved living standards have led to a substantial increase in the number of vehicles on the road, consequently resulting in a rise in the frequency of accidents. Among these accidents, motorbike accidents pose a particularly high risk, often resulting in serious injuries or deaths. A significant number of these fatalities occur due to delayed or inadequate medical attention. To this end, we propose a novel automatic detection and notification system specifically designed for motorbike accidents. The proposed system comprises two key components: a detection system and a physiological signal monitoring system. The detection system is integrated into the helmet and consists of a microcontroller, accelerometer, GPS, GSM, and Wi-Fi modules. The physio-monitoring system incorporates a sensor for monitoring pulse rate and SpO_{2} saturation. All collected data are presented on an LCD display and wirelessly transmitted to the detection system through the microcontroller of the physiological signal monitoring system. If the accelerometer readings consistently deviate from the specified threshold decided through extensive experimentation, the system identifies the event as an accident and transmits the victim's information -- including the GPS location, pulse rate, and SpO_{2} saturation rate -- to the designated emergency contacts. Preliminary results demonstrate the efficacy of the proposed system in accurately detecting motorbike accidents and promptly alerting emergency contacts. We firmly believe that the proposed system has the potential to significantly mitigate the risks associated with motorbike accidents and save lives.
SDOH-NLI: a Dataset for Inferring Social Determinants of Health from Clinical Notes
Social and behavioral determinants of health (SDOH) play a significant role in shaping health outcomes, and extracting these determinants from clinical notes is a first step to help healthcare providers systematically identify opportunities to provide appropriate care and address disparities. Progress on using NLP methods for this task has been hindered by the lack of high-quality publicly available labeled data, largely due to the privacy and regulatory constraints on the use of real patients' information. This paper introduces a new dataset, SDOH-NLI, that is based on publicly available notes and which we release publicly. We formulate SDOH extraction as a natural language inference (NLI) task, and provide binary textual entailment labels obtained from human raters for a cross product of a set of social history snippets as premises and SDOH factors as hypotheses. Our dataset differs from standard NLI benchmarks in that our premises and hypotheses are obtained independently. We evaluate both "off-the-shelf" entailment models as well as models fine-tuned on our data, and highlight the ways in which our dataset appears more challenging than commonly used NLI datasets.
Neural Control System for Continuous Glucose Monitoring and Maintenance
Precise glucose level monitoring is critical for people with diabetes to avoid serious complications. While there are several methods for continuous glucose level monitoring, research on maintenance devices is limited. To mitigate the gap, we provide a novel neural control system for continuous glucose monitoring and management that uses differential predictive control. Our approach, led by a sophisticated neural policy and differentiable modeling, constantly adjusts insulin supply in real-time, thereby improving glucose level optimization in the body. This end-to-end method maximizes efficiency, providing personalized care and improved health outcomes, as confirmed by empirical evidence.
On Heterogeneous Treatment Effects in Heterogeneous Causal Graphs
Heterogeneity and comorbidity are two interwoven challenges associated with various healthcare problems that greatly hampered research on developing effective treatment and understanding of the underlying neurobiological mechanism. Very few studies have been conducted to investigate heterogeneous causal effects (HCEs) in graphical contexts due to the lack of statistical methods. To characterize this heterogeneity, we first conceptualize heterogeneous causal graphs (HCGs) by generalizing the causal graphical model with confounder-based interactions and multiple mediators. Such confounders with an interaction with the treatment are known as moderators. This allows us to flexibly produce HCGs given different moderators and explicitly characterize HCEs from the treatment or potential mediators on the outcome. We establish the theoretical forms of HCEs and derive their properties at the individual level in both linear and nonlinear models. An interactive structural learning is developed to estimate the complex HCGs and HCEs with confidence intervals provided. Our method is empirically justified by extensive simulations and its practical usefulness is illustrated by exploring causality among psychiatric disorders for trauma survivors.
BrisT1D Dataset: Young Adults with Type 1 Diabetes in the UK using Smartwatches
Background: Type 1 diabetes (T1D) has seen a rapid evolution in management technology and forms a useful case study for the future management of other chronic conditions. Further development of this management technology requires an exploration of its real-world use and the potential of additional data streams. To facilitate this, we contribute the BrisT1D Dataset to the growing number of public T1D management datasets. The dataset was developed from a longitudinal study of 24 young adults in the UK who used a smartwatch alongside their usual T1D management. Findings: The BrisT1D dataset features both device data from the T1D management systems and smartwatches used by participants, as well as transcripts of monthly interviews and focus groups conducted during the study. The device data is provided in a processed state, for usability and more rapid analysis, and in a raw state, for in-depth exploration of novel insights captured in the study. Conclusions: This dataset has a range of potential applications. The quantitative elements can support blood glucose prediction, hypoglycaemia prediction, and closed-loop algorithm development. The qualitative elements enable the exploration of user experiences and opinions, as well as broader mixed-methods research into the role of smartwatches in T1D management.
ADARP: A Multi Modal Dataset for Stress and Alcohol Relapse Quantification in Real Life Setting
Stress detection and classification from wearable sensor data is an emerging area of research with significant implications for individuals' physical and mental health. In this work, we introduce a new dataset, ADARP, which contains physiological data and self-report outcomes collected in real-world ambulatory settings involving individuals diagnosed with alcohol use disorders. We describe the user study, present details of the dataset, establish the significant correlation between physiological data and self-reported outcomes, demonstrate stress classification, and make our dataset public to facilitate research.
Artificial Intelligence for Personalized Prediction of Alzheimer's Disease Progression: A Survey of Methods, Data Challenges, and Future Directions
Alzheimer's Disease (AD) is marked by significant inter-individual variability in its progression, complicating accurate prognosis and personalized care planning. This heterogeneity underscores the critical need for predictive models capable of forecasting patient-specific disease trajectories. Artificial Intelligence (AI) offers powerful tools to address this challenge by analyzing complex, multi-modal, and longitudinal patient data. This paper provides a comprehensive survey of AI methodologies applied to personalized AD progression prediction. We review key approaches including state-space models for capturing temporal dynamics, deep learning techniques like Recurrent Neural Networks for sequence modeling, Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) for leveraging network structures, and the emerging concept of AI-driven digital twins for individualized simulation. Recognizing that data limitations often impede progress, we examine common challenges such as high dimensionality, missing data, and dataset imbalance. We further discuss AI-driven mitigation strategies, with a specific focus on synthetic data generation using Variational Autoencoders (VAEs) and Generative Adversarial Networks (GANs) to augment and balance datasets. The survey synthesizes the strengths and limitations of current approaches, emphasizing the trend towards multimodal integration and the persistent need for model interpretability and generalizability. Finally, we identify critical open challenges, including robust external validation, clinical integration, and ethical considerations, and outline promising future research directions such as hybrid models, causal inference, and federated learning. This review aims to consolidate current knowledge and guide future efforts in developing clinically relevant AI tools for personalized AD prognostication.
SADM: Sequence-Aware Diffusion Model for Longitudinal Medical Image Generation
Human organs constantly undergo anatomical changes due to a complex mix of short-term (e.g., heartbeat) and long-term (e.g., aging) factors. Evidently, prior knowledge of these factors will be beneficial when modeling their future state, i.e., via image generation. However, most of the medical image generation tasks only rely on the input from a single image, thus ignoring the sequential dependency even when longitudinal data is available. Sequence-aware deep generative models, where model input is a sequence of ordered and timestamped images, are still underexplored in the medical imaging domain that is featured by several unique challenges: 1) Sequences with various lengths; 2) Missing data or frame, and 3) High dimensionality. To this end, we propose a sequence-aware diffusion model (SADM) for the generation of longitudinal medical images. Recently, diffusion models have shown promising results in high-fidelity image generation. Our method extends this new technique by introducing a sequence-aware transformer as the conditional module in a diffusion model. The novel design enables learning longitudinal dependency even with missing data during training and allows autoregressive generation of a sequence of images during inference. Our extensive experiments on 3D longitudinal medical images demonstrate the effectiveness of SADM compared with baselines and alternative methods. The code is available at https://github.com/ubc-tea/SADM-Longitudinal-Medical-Image-Generation.
Multi-resolution Networks For Flexible Irregular Time Series Modeling (Multi-FIT)
Missing values, irregularly collected samples, and multi-resolution signals commonly occur in multivariate time series data, making predictive tasks difficult. These challenges are especially prevalent in the healthcare domain, where patients' vital signs and electronic records are collected at different frequencies and have occasionally missing information due to the imperfections in equipment or patient circumstances. Researchers have handled each of these issues differently, often handling missing data through mean value imputation and then using sequence models over the multivariate signals while ignoring the different resolution of signals. We propose a unified model named Multi-resolution Flexible Irregular Time series Network (Multi-FIT). The building block for Multi-FIT is the FIT network. The FIT network creates an informative dense representation at each time step using signal information such as last observed value, time difference since the last observed time stamp and overall mean for the signal. Vertical FIT (FIT-V) is a variant of FIT which also models the relationship between different temporal signals while creating the informative dense representations for the signal. The multi-FIT model uses multiple FIT networks for sets of signals with different resolutions, further facilitating the construction of flexible representations. Our model has three main contributions: a.) it does not impute values but rather creates informative representations to provide flexibility to the model for creating task-specific representations b.) it models the relationship between different signals in the form of support signals c.) it models different resolutions in parallel before merging them for the final prediction task. The FIT, FIT-V and Multi-FIT networks improve upon the state-of-the-art models for three predictive tasks, including the forecasting of patient survival.
DailyLLM: Context-Aware Activity Log Generation Using Multi-Modal Sensors and LLMs
Rich and context-aware activity logs facilitate user behavior analysis and health monitoring, making them a key research focus in ubiquitous computing. The remarkable semantic understanding and generation capabilities of Large Language Models (LLMs) have recently created new opportunities for activity log generation. However, existing methods continue to exhibit notable limitations in terms of accuracy, efficiency, and semantic richness. To address these challenges, we propose DailyLLM. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first log generation and summarization system that comprehensively integrates contextual activity information across four dimensions: location, motion, environment, and physiology, using only sensors commonly available on smartphones and smartwatches. To achieve this, DailyLLM introduces a lightweight LLM-based framework that integrates structured prompting with efficient feature extraction to enable high-level activity understanding. Extensive experiments demonstrate that DailyLLM outperforms state-of-the-art (SOTA) log generation methods and can be efficiently deployed on personal computers and Raspberry Pi. Utilizing only a 1.5B-parameter LLM model, DailyLLM achieves a 17% improvement in log generation BERTScore precision compared to the 70B-parameter SOTA baseline, while delivering nearly 10x faster inference speed.
LLM Agent-Based Simulation of Student Activities and Mental Health Using Smartphone Sensing Data
Students' mental well-being is vital for academic success, with activities such as studying, socializing, and sleeping playing a role. Current mobile sensing data highlight this intricate link using statistical and machine learning analyses. We propose a novel LLM agent-based simulation framework to model student activities and mental health using the StudentLife Dataset. Each LLM agent was initialized with personality questionnaires and guided by smartphone sensing data throughout the simulated semester. These agents predict individual behaviors, provide self-reported mental health data via ecological momentary assessments (EMAs), and complete follow-up personality questionnaires. To ensure accuracy, we investigated various prompting techniques, memory systems, and activity-based mental state management strategies that dynamically update an agent's mental state based on their daily activities. This simulation goes beyond simply replicating existing data. This allows us to explore new scenarios that are not present in the original dataset, such as peer influence through agent-to-agent interactions and the impact of social media. Furthermore, we can conduct intervention studies by manipulating activity patterns via sensing signals and personality traits using questionnaire responses. This provides valuable insights into the behavioral changes that could enhance student well-being. The framework also facilitates hypothetical interviews with LLM agents, offering deeper insights into their mental health. This study showcases the power of LLM-driven behavioral modeling with sensing data, opening new avenues for understanding and supporting student mental health.
FedFitTech: A Baseline in Federated Learning for Fitness Tracking
The rapid evolution of sensors and resource-efficient machine learning models has spurred the widespread adoption of wearable fitness tracking devices. Equipped with inertial sensors, such devices can continuously capture physical movements for fitness technology (FitTech), enabling applications from sports optimization to preventive healthcare. Traditional Centralized Learning approaches to detect fitness activities struggle with data privacy concerns, regulatory restrictions, and communication inefficiencies. In contrast, Federated Learning (FL) enables a decentralized model training by communicating model updates rather than potentially private wearable sensor data. Applying FL to FitTech presents unique challenges, such as data imbalance, lack of labeled data, heterogeneous user activities, and trade-offs between personalization and generalization. To simplify research on FitTech in FL, we present the FedFitTech baseline, under the Flower framework, which is publicly available and widely used by both industry and academic researchers. Additionally, to illustrate its usage, this paper presents a case study that implements a system based on the FedFitTech baseline, incorporating a client-side early stopping strategy and comparing the results. For instance, this system allows wearable devices to optimize the trade-off between capturing common fitness activities and preserving individuals' nuances, thereby enhancing both the scalability and efficiency of privacy-aware fitness tracking applications. The results show that this reduces the overall redundant communications by 13%, while maintaining the overall recognition performance at a negligible recognition cost by 1%. Thus, the FedFitTech baseline creates a foundation for a wide range of new research and development opportunities in FitTech, and it is available as open source at: https://github.com/shreyaskorde16/FedFitTech
GenHPF: General Healthcare Predictive Framework with Multi-task Multi-source Learning
Despite the remarkable progress in the development of predictive models for healthcare, applying these algorithms on a large scale has been challenging. Algorithms trained on a particular task, based on specific data formats available in a set of medical records, tend to not generalize well to other tasks or databases in which the data fields may differ. To address this challenge, we propose General Healthcare Predictive Framework (GenHPF), which is applicable to any EHR with minimal preprocessing for multiple prediction tasks. GenHPF resolves heterogeneity in medical codes and schemas by converting EHRs into a hierarchical textual representation while incorporating as many features as possible. To evaluate the efficacy of GenHPF, we conduct multi-task learning experiments with single-source and multi-source settings, on three publicly available EHR datasets with different schemas for 12 clinically meaningful prediction tasks. Our framework significantly outperforms baseline models that utilize domain knowledge in multi-source learning, improving average AUROC by 1.2%P in pooled learning and 2.6%P in transfer learning while also showing comparable results when trained on a single EHR dataset. Furthermore, we demonstrate that self-supervised pretraining using multi-source datasets is effective when combined with GenHPF, resulting in a 0.6%P AUROC improvement compared to models without pretraining. By eliminating the need for preprocessing and feature engineering, we believe that this work offers a solid framework for multi-task and multi-source learning that can be leveraged to speed up the scaling and usage of predictive algorithms in healthcare.
Learning from Two Decades of Blood Pressure Data: Demography-Specific Patterns Across 75 Million Patient Encounters
Hypertension remains a global health concern with a rising prevalence, necessitating effective monitoring and understanding of blood pressure (BP) dynamics. This study delves into the wealth of information derived from BP measurement, a crucial approach in informing our understanding of hypertensive trends. Numerous studies have reported on the relationship between BP variation and various factors. In this research, we leveraged an extensive dataset comprising 75 million records spanning two decades, offering a unique opportunity to explore and analyze BP variations across demographic features such as age, race, and gender. Our findings revealed that gender-based BP variation was not statistically significant, challenging conventional assumptions. Interestingly, systolic blood pressure (SBP) consistently increased with age, while diastolic blood pressure (DBP) displayed a distinctive peak in the forties age group. Moreover, our analysis uncovered intriguing similarities in the distribution of BP among some of the racial groups. This comprehensive investigation contributes to the ongoing discourse on hypertension and underscores the importance of considering diverse demographic factors in understanding BP variations. Our results provide valuable insights that may inform personalized healthcare approaches tailored to specific demographic profiles.
A structural equation formulation for general quasi-periodic Gaussian processes
This paper introduces a structural equation formulation that gives rise to a new family of quasi-periodic Gaussian processes, useful to process a broad class of natural and physiological signals. The proposed formulation simplifies generation and forecasting, and provides hyperparameter estimates, which we exploit in a convergent and consistent iterative estimation algorithm. A bootstrap approach for standard error estimation and confidence intervals is also provided. We demonstrate the computational and scaling benefits of the proposed approach on a broad class of problems, including water level tidal analysis, CO_{2} emission data, and sunspot numbers data. By leveraging the structural equations, our method reduces the cost of likelihood evaluations and predictions from O(k^2 p^2) to O(p^2), significantly improving scalability.
Did You Really Just Have a Heart Attack? Towards Robust Detection of Personal Health Mentions in Social Media
Millions of users share their experiences on social media sites, such as Twitter, which in turn generate valuable data for public health monitoring, digital epidemiology, and other analyses of population health at global scale. The first, critical, task for these applications is classifying whether a personal health event was mentioned, which we call the (PHM) problem. This task is challenging for many reasons, including typically short length of social media posts, inventive spelling and lexicons, and figurative language, including hyperbole using diseases like "heart attack" or "cancer" for emphasis, and not as a health self-report. This problem is even more challenging for rarely reported, or frequent but ambiguously expressed conditions, such as "stroke". To address this problem, we propose a general, robust method for detecting PHMs in social media, which we call WESPAD, that combines lexical, syntactic, word embedding-based, and context-based features. WESPAD is able to generalize from few examples by automatically distorting the word embedding space to most effectively detect the true health mentions. Unlike previously proposed state-of-the-art supervised and deep-learning techniques, WESPAD requires relatively little training data, which makes it possible to adapt, with minimal effort, to each new disease and condition. We evaluate WESPAD on both an established publicly available Flu detection benchmark, and on a new dataset that we have constructed with mentions of multiple health conditions. Our experiments show that WESPAD outperforms the baselines and state-of-the-art methods, especially in cases when the number and proportion of true health mentions in the training data is small.
MSPM: A Multi-Site Physiological Monitoring Dataset for Remote Pulse, Respiration, and Blood Pressure Estimation
Visible-light cameras can capture subtle physiological biomarkers without physical contact with the subject. We present the Multi-Site Physiological Monitoring (MSPM) dataset, which is the first dataset collected to support the study of simultaneous camera-based vital signs estimation from multiple locations on the body. MSPM enables research on remote photoplethysmography (rPPG), respiration rate, and pulse transit time (PTT); it contains ground-truth measurements of pulse oximetry (at multiple body locations) and blood pressure using contacting sensors. We provide thorough experiments demonstrating the suitability of MSPM to support research on rPPG, respiration rate, and PTT. Cross-dataset rPPG experiments reveal that MSPM is a challenging yet high quality dataset, with intra-dataset pulse rate mean absolute error (MAE) below 4 beats per minute (BPM), and cross-dataset pulse rate MAE below 2 BPM in certain cases. Respiration experiments find a MAE of 1.09 breaths per minute by extracting motion features from the chest. PTT experiments find that across the pairs of different body sites, there is high correlation between remote PTT and contact-measured PTT, which facilitates the possibility for future camera-based PTT research.
A Bayesian approach to the g-formula
Epidemiologists often wish to estimate quantities that are easy to communicate and correspond to the results of realistic public health scenarios. Methods from causal inference can answer these questions. We adopt the language of potential outcomes under Rubin's original Bayesian framework and show that the parametric g-formula is easily amenable to a Bayesian approach. We show that the frequentist properties of the Bayesian g-formula suggest it improves the accuracy of estimates of causal effects in small samples or when data may be sparse. We demonstrate our approach to estimate the effect of environmental tobacco smoke on body mass index z-scores among children aged 4-9 years who were enrolled in a longitudinal birth cohort in New York, USA. We give a general algorithm and supply SAS and Stan code that can be adopted to implement our computational approach in both time-fixed and longitudinal data.
Improving Out-of-distribution Human Activity Recognition via IMU-Video Cross-modal Representation Learning
Human Activity Recognition (HAR) based on wearable inertial sensors plays a critical role in remote health monitoring. In patients with movement disorders, the ability to detect abnormal patient movements in their home environments can enable continuous optimization of treatments and help alert caretakers as needed. Machine learning approaches have been proposed for HAR tasks using Inertial Measurement Unit (IMU) data; however, most rely on application-specific labels and lack generalizability to data collected in different environments or populations. To address this limitation, we propose a new cross-modal self-supervised pretraining approach to learn representations from large-sale unlabeled IMU-video data and demonstrate improved generalizability in HAR tasks on out of distribution (OOD) IMU datasets, including a dataset collected from patients with Parkinson's disease. Specifically, our results indicate that the proposed cross-modal pretraining approach outperforms the current state-of-the-art IMU-video pretraining approach and IMU-only pretraining under zero-shot and few-shot evaluations. Broadly, our study provides evidence that in highly dynamic data modalities, such as IMU signals, cross-modal pretraining may be a useful tool to learn generalizable data representations. Our software is available at https://github.com/scheshmi/IMU-Video-OOD-HAR.
Structural Positional Encoding for knowledge integration in transformer-based medical process monitoring
Predictive process monitoring is a process mining task aimed at forecasting information about a running process trace, such as the most correct next activity to be executed. In medical domains, predictive process monitoring can provide valuable decision support in atypical and nontrivial situations. Decision support and quality assessment in medicine cannot ignore domain knowledge, in order to be grounded on all the available information (which is not limited to data) and to be really acceptable by end users. In this paper, we propose a predictive process monitoring approach relying on the use of a {\em transformer}, a deep learning architecture based on the attention mechanism. A major contribution of our work lies in the incorporation of ontological domain-specific knowledge, carried out through a graph positional encoding technique. The paper presents and discusses the encouraging experimental result we are collecting in the domain of stroke management.
Exploring Personalized Health Support through Data-Driven, Theory-Guided LLMs: A Case Study in Sleep Health
Despite the prevalence of sleep-tracking devices, many individuals struggle to translate data into actionable improvements in sleep health. Current methods often provide data-driven suggestions but may not be feasible and adaptive to real-life constraints and individual contexts. We present HealthGuru, a novel large language model-powered chatbot to enhance sleep health through data-driven, theory-guided, and adaptive recommendations with conversational behavior change support. HealthGuru's multi-agent framework integrates wearable device data, contextual information, and a contextual multi-armed bandit model to suggest tailored sleep-enhancing activities. The system facilitates natural conversations while incorporating data-driven insights and theoretical behavior change techniques. Our eight-week in-the-wild deployment study with 16 participants compared HealthGuru to a baseline chatbot. Results show improved metrics like sleep duration and activity scores, higher quality responses, and increased user motivation for behavior change with HealthGuru. We also identify challenges and design considerations for personalization and user engagement in health chatbots.
Reasoning Is Not All You Need: Examining LLMs for Multi-Turn Mental Health Conversations
Limited access to mental healthcare, extended wait times, and increasing capabilities of Large Language Models (LLMs) has led individuals to turn to LLMs for fulfilling their mental health needs. However, examining the multi-turn mental health conversation capabilities of LLMs remains under-explored. Existing evaluation frameworks typically focus on diagnostic accuracy and win-rates and often overlook alignment with patient-specific goals, values, and personalities required for meaningful conversations. To address this, we introduce MedAgent, a novel framework for synthetically generating realistic, multi-turn mental health sensemaking conversations and use it to create the Mental Health Sensemaking Dialogue (MHSD) dataset, comprising over 2,200 patient-LLM conversations. Additionally, we present MultiSenseEval, a holistic framework to evaluate the multi-turn conversation abilities of LLMs in healthcare settings using human-centric criteria. Our findings reveal that frontier reasoning models yield below-par performance for patient-centric communication and struggle at advanced diagnostic capabilities with average score of 31%. Additionally, we observed variation in model performance based on patient's persona and performance drop with increasing turns in the conversation. Our work provides a comprehensive synthetic data generation framework, a dataset and evaluation framework for assessing LLMs in multi-turn mental health conversations.
Healthsheet: Development of a Transparency Artifact for Health Datasets
Machine learning (ML) approaches have demonstrated promising results in a wide range of healthcare applications. Data plays a crucial role in developing ML-based healthcare systems that directly affect people's lives. Many of the ethical issues surrounding the use of ML in healthcare stem from structural inequalities underlying the way we collect, use, and handle data. Developing guidelines to improve documentation practices regarding the creation, use, and maintenance of ML healthcare datasets is therefore of critical importance. In this work, we introduce Healthsheet, a contextualized adaptation of the original datasheet questionnaire ~gebru2018datasheets for health-specific applications. Through a series of semi-structured interviews, we adapt the datasheets for healthcare data documentation. As part of the Healthsheet development process and to understand the obstacles researchers face in creating datasheets, we worked with three publicly-available healthcare datasets as our case studies, each with different types of structured data: Electronic health Records (EHR), clinical trial study data, and smartphone-based performance outcome measures. Our findings from the interviewee study and case studies show 1) that datasheets should be contextualized for healthcare, 2) that despite incentives to adopt accountability practices such as datasheets, there is a lack of consistency in the broader use of these practices 3) how the ML for health community views datasheets and particularly Healthsheets as diagnostic tool to surface the limitations and strength of datasets and 4) the relative importance of different fields in the datasheet to healthcare concerns.
People readily follow personal advice from AI but it does not improve their well-being
People increasingly seek personal advice from large language models (LLMs), yet whether humans follow their advice, and its consequences for their well-being, remains unknown. In a longitudinal randomised controlled trial with a representative UK sample (N = 2,302), 75% of participants who had a 20-minute discussion with GPT-4o about health, careers or relationships subsequently reported following its advice. Based on autograder evaluations of chat transcripts, LLM advice rarely violated safety best practice. When queried 2-3 weeks later, participants who had interacted with personalised AI (with access to detailed user information) followed its advice more often in the real world and reported higher well-being than those advised by non-personalised AI. However, while receiving personal advice from AI temporarily reduced well-being, no differential long-term effects compared to a control emerged. Our results suggest that humans readily follow LLM advice about personal issues but doing so shows no additional well-being benefit over casual conversations.
Explainable Depression Symptom Detection in Social Media
Users of social platforms often perceive these sites as supportive spaces to post about their mental health issues. Those conversations contain important traces about individuals' health risks. Recently, researchers have exploited this online information to construct mental health detection models, which aim to identify users at risk on platforms like Twitter, Reddit or Facebook. Most of these models are centred on achieving good classification results, ignoring the explainability and interpretability of the decisions. Recent research has pointed out the importance of using clinical markers, such as the use of symptoms, to improve trust in the computational models by health professionals. In this paper, we propose using transformer-based architectures to detect and explain the appearance of depressive symptom markers in the users' writings. We present two approaches: i) train a model to classify, and another one to explain the classifier's decision separately and ii) unify the two tasks simultaneously using a single model. Additionally, for this latter manner, we also investigated the performance of recent conversational LLMs when using in-context learning. Our natural language explanations enable clinicians to interpret the models' decisions based on validated symptoms, enhancing trust in the automated process. We evaluate our approach using recent symptom-based datasets, employing both offline and expert-in-the-loop metrics to assess the quality of the explanations generated by our models. The experimental results show that it is possible to achieve good classification results while generating interpretable symptom-based explanations.
Large Language Model for Mental Health: A Systematic Review
Large language models (LLMs) have received much attention and shown their potential in digital health, while their application in mental health is subject to ongoing debate. This systematic review aims to summarize and characterize the use of LLMs in mental health by investigating the strengths and limitations of the latest work in LLMs and discusses the challenges and opportunities for early screening, digital interventions, and other clinical applications in mental health. Following PRISMA guidelines, we examined English articles from PubMed, DBLP Computer Science Bibliography, and IEEE Xplore, published between 1 January 2017, and 1 September 2023, focusing on mental health and LLMs. The review analyzed 32 articles, including mental health analysis using social media datasets (n=13), mental health chatbots (n=10), and other mental health applications (n=9). Findings reveal LLMs' effectiveness in mental health issue detection and the enhancement of telepsychological services through personalised healthcare. Nonetheless, risks like text inconsistencies, hallucinatory content, and the lack of an ethical framework raise concerns about their clinical use. Despite these challenges, the advancement of LLMs underscores their potential as innovative clinical tools, necessitating further research and development. The review emphasizes that LLMs should complement, not replace, professional mental health services.
RECAP: Towards Precise Radiology Report Generation via Dynamic Disease Progression Reasoning
Automating radiology report generation can significantly alleviate radiologists' workloads. Previous research has primarily focused on realizing highly concise observations while neglecting the precise attributes that determine the severity of diseases (e.g., small pleural effusion). Since incorrect attributes will lead to imprecise radiology reports, strengthening the generation process with precise attribute modeling becomes necessary. Additionally, the temporal information contained in the historical records, which is crucial in evaluating a patient's current condition (e.g., heart size is unchanged), has also been largely disregarded. To address these issues, we propose RECAP, which generates precise and accurate radiology reports via dynamic disease progression reasoning. Specifically, RECAP first predicts the observations and progressions (i.e., spatiotemporal information) given two consecutive radiographs. It then combines the historical records, spatiotemporal information, and radiographs for report generation, where a disease progression graph and dynamic progression reasoning mechanism are devised to accurately select the attributes of each observation and progression. Extensive experiments on two publicly available datasets demonstrate the effectiveness of our model.
Context Clues: Evaluating Long Context Models for Clinical Prediction Tasks on EHRs
Foundation Models (FMs) trained on Electronic Health Records (EHRs) have achieved state-of-the-art results on numerous clinical prediction tasks. However, most existing EHR FMs have context windows of <1k tokens. This prevents them from modeling full patient EHRs which can exceed 10k's of events. Recent advancements in subquadratic long-context architectures (e.g., Mamba) offer a promising solution. However, their application to EHR data has not been well-studied. We address this gap by presenting the first systematic evaluation of the effect of context length on modeling EHR data. We find that longer context models improve predictive performance -- our Mamba-based model surpasses the prior state-of-the-art on 9/14 tasks on the EHRSHOT prediction benchmark. For clinical applications, however, model performance alone is insufficient -- robustness to the unique properties of EHR is crucial. Thus, we also evaluate models across three previously underexplored properties of EHR data: (1) the prevalence of "copy-forwarded" diagnoses which creates artificial repetition of tokens within EHR sequences; (2) the irregular time intervals between EHR events which can lead to a wide range of timespans within a context window; and (3) the natural increase in disease complexity over time which makes later tokens in the EHR harder to predict than earlier ones. Stratifying our EHRSHOT results, we find that higher levels of each property correlate negatively with model performance, but that longer context models are more robust to more extreme levels of these properties. Our work highlights the potential for using long-context architectures to model EHR data, and offers a case study for identifying new challenges in modeling sequential data motivated by domains outside of natural language. We release our models and code at: https://github.com/som-shahlab/long_context_clues
Benchmarking Waitlist Mortality Prediction in Heart Transplantation Through Time-to-Event Modeling using New Longitudinal UNOS Dataset
Decisions about managing patients on the heart transplant waitlist are currently made by committees of doctors who consider multiple factors, but the process remains largely ad-hoc. With the growing volume of longitudinal patient, donor, and organ data collected by the United Network for Organ Sharing (UNOS) since 2018, there is increasing interest in analytical approaches to support clinical decision-making at the time of organ availability. In this study, we benchmark machine learning models that leverage longitudinal waitlist history data for time-dependent, time-to-event modeling of waitlist mortality. We train on 23,807 patient records with 77 variables and evaluate both survival prediction and discrimination at a 1-year horizon. Our best model achieves a C-Index of 0.94 and AUROC of 0.89, significantly outperforming previous models. Key predictors align with known risk factors while also revealing novel associations. Our findings can support urgency assessment and policy refinement in heart transplant decision making.
Improving Medical Predictions by Irregular Multimodal Electronic Health Records Modeling
Health conditions among patients in intensive care units (ICUs) are monitored via electronic health records (EHRs), composed of numerical time series and lengthy clinical note sequences, both taken at irregular time intervals. Dealing with such irregularity in every modality, and integrating irregularity into multimodal representations to improve medical predictions, is a challenging problem. Our method first addresses irregularity in each single modality by (1) modeling irregular time series by dynamically incorporating hand-crafted imputation embeddings into learned interpolation embeddings via a gating mechanism, and (2) casting a series of clinical note representations as multivariate irregular time series and tackling irregularity via a time attention mechanism. We further integrate irregularity in multimodal fusion with an interleaved attention mechanism across temporal steps. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first work to thoroughly model irregularity in multimodalities for improving medical predictions. Our proposed methods for two medical prediction tasks consistently outperforms state-of-the-art (SOTA) baselines in each single modality and multimodal fusion scenarios. Specifically, we observe relative improvements of 6.5\%, 3.6\%, and 4.3\% in F1 for time series, clinical notes, and multimodal fusion, respectively. These results demonstrate the effectiveness of our methods and the importance of considering irregularity in multimodal EHRs.
Conceptualizing Suicidal Behavior: Utilizing Explanations of Predicted Outcomes to Analyze Longitudinal Social Media Data
The COVID-19 pandemic has escalated mental health crises worldwide, with social isolation and economic instability contributing to a rise in suicidal behavior. Suicide can result from social factors such as shame, abuse, abandonment, and mental health conditions like depression, Post-Traumatic Stress Disorder (PTSD), Attention-Deficit/Hyperactivity Disorder (ADHD), anxiety disorders, and bipolar disorders. As these conditions develop, signs of suicidal ideation may manifest in social media interactions. Analyzing social media data using artificial intelligence (AI) techniques can help identify patterns of suicidal behavior, providing invaluable insights for suicide prevention agencies, professionals, and broader community awareness initiatives. Machine learning algorithms for this purpose require large volumes of accurately labeled data. Previous research has not fully explored the potential of incorporating explanations in analyzing and labeling longitudinal social media data. In this study, we employed a model explanation method, Layer Integrated Gradients, on top of a fine-tuned state-of-the-art language model, to assign each token from Reddit users' posts an attribution score for predicting suicidal ideation. By extracting and analyzing attributions of tokens from the data, we propose a methodology for preliminary screening of social media posts for suicidal ideation without using large language models during inference.
Synthetic Observational Health Data with GANs: from slow adoption to a boom in medical research and ultimately digital twins?
After being collected for patient care, Observational Health Data (OHD) can further benefit patient well-being by sustaining the development of health informatics and medical research. Vast potential is unexploited because of the fiercely private nature of patient-related data and regulations to protect it. Generative Adversarial Networks (GANs) have recently emerged as a groundbreaking way to learn generative models that produce realistic synthetic data. They have revolutionized practices in multiple domains such as self-driving cars, fraud detection, digital twin simulations in industrial sectors, and medical imaging. The digital twin concept could readily apply to modelling and quantifying disease progression. In addition, GANs posses many capabilities relevant to common problems in healthcare: lack of data, class imbalance, rare diseases, and preserving privacy. Unlocking open access to privacy-preserving OHD could be transformative for scientific research. In the midst of COVID-19, the healthcare system is facing unprecedented challenges, many of which of are data related for the reasons stated above. Considering these facts, publications concerning GAN applied to OHD seemed to be severely lacking. To uncover the reasons for this slow adoption, we broadly reviewed the published literature on the subject. Our findings show that the properties of OHD were initially challenging for the existing GAN algorithms (unlike medical imaging, for which state-of-the-art model were directly transferable) and the evaluation synthetic data lacked clear metrics. We find more publications on the subject than expected, starting slowly in 2017, and since then at an increasing rate. The difficulties of OHD remain, and we discuss issues relating to evaluation, consistency, benchmarking, data modelling, and reproducibility.
Enhancing End Stage Renal Disease Outcome Prediction: A Multi-Sourced Data-Driven Approach
Objective: To improve prediction of Chronic Kidney Disease (CKD) progression to End Stage Renal Disease (ESRD) using machine learning (ML) and deep learning (DL) models applied to an integrated clinical and claims dataset of varying observation windows, supported by explainable AI (XAI) to enhance interpretability and reduce bias. Materials and Methods: We utilized data about 10,326 CKD patients, combining their clinical and claims information from 2009 to 2018. Following data preprocessing, cohort identification, and feature engineering, we evaluated multiple statistical, ML and DL models using data extracted from five distinct observation windows. Feature importance and Shapley value analysis were employed to understand key predictors. Models were tested for robustness, clinical relevance, misclassification errors and bias issues. Results: Integrated data models outperformed those using single data sources, with the Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) model achieving the highest AUC (0.93) and F1 score (0.65). A 24-month observation window was identified as optimal for balancing early detection and prediction accuracy. The 2021 eGFR equation improved prediction accuracy and reduced racial bias, notably for African American patients. Discussion: Improved ESRD prediction accuracy, results interpretability and bias mitigation strategies presented in this study have the potential to significantly enhance CKD and ESRD management, support targeted early interventions and reduce healthcare disparities. Conclusion: This study presents a robust framework for predicting ESRD outcomes in CKD patients, improving clinical decision-making and patient care through multi-sourced, integrated data and AI/ML methods. Future research will expand data integration and explore the application of this framework to other chronic diseases.
Analyzing Wearables Dataset to Predict ADLs and Falls: A Pilot Study
Healthcare is an important aspect of human life. Use of technologies in healthcare has increased manifolds after the pandemic. Internet of Things based systems and devices proposed in literature can help elders, children and adults facing/experiencing health problems. This paper exhaustively reviews thirty-nine wearable based datasets which can be used for evaluating the system to recognize Activities of Daily Living and Falls. A comparative analysis on the SisFall dataset using five machine learning methods i.e., Logistic Regression, Linear Discriminant Analysis, K-Nearest Neighbor, Decision Tree and Naive Bayes is performed in python. The dataset is modified in two ways, in first all the attributes present in dataset are used as it is and labelled in binary form. In second, magnitude of three axes(x,y,z) for three sensors value are computed and then used in experiment with label attribute. The experiments are performed on one subject, ten subjects and all the subjects and compared in terms of accuracy, precision and recall. The results obtained from this study proves that KNN outperforms other machine learning methods in terms of accuracy, precision and recall. It is also concluded that personalization of data improves accuracy.
Temporal-spatial Correlation Attention Network for Clinical Data Analysis in Intensive Care Unit
In recent years, medical information technology has made it possible for electronic health record (EHR) to store fairly complete clinical data. This has brought health care into the era of "big data". However, medical data are often sparse and strongly correlated, which means that medical problems cannot be solved effectively. With the rapid development of deep learning in recent years, it has provided opportunities for the use of big data in healthcare. In this paper, we propose a temporal-saptial correlation attention network (TSCAN) to handle some clinical characteristic prediction problems, such as predicting death, predicting length of stay, detecting physiologic decline, and classifying phenotypes. Based on the design of the attention mechanism model, our approach can effectively remove irrelevant items in clinical data and irrelevant nodes in time according to different tasks, so as to obtain more accurate prediction results. Our method can also find key clinical indicators of important outcomes that can be used to improve treatment options. Our experiments use information from the Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care (MIMIC-IV) database, which is open to the public. Finally, we have achieved significant performance benefits of 2.0\% (metric) compared to other SOTA prediction methods. We achieved a staggering 90.7\% on mortality rate, 45.1\% on length of stay. The source code can be find: https://github.com/yuyuheintju/TSCAN.
LesionLocator: Zero-Shot Universal Tumor Segmentation and Tracking in 3D Whole-Body Imaging
In this work, we present LesionLocator, a framework for zero-shot longitudinal lesion tracking and segmentation in 3D medical imaging, establishing the first end-to-end model capable of 4D tracking with dense spatial prompts. Our model leverages an extensive dataset of 23,262 annotated medical scans, as well as synthesized longitudinal data across diverse lesion types. The diversity and scale of our dataset significantly enhances model generalizability to real-world medical imaging challenges and addresses key limitations in longitudinal data availability. LesionLocator outperforms all existing promptable models in lesion segmentation by nearly 10 dice points, reaching human-level performance, and achieves state-of-the-art results in lesion tracking, with superior lesion retrieval and segmentation accuracy. LesionLocator not only sets a new benchmark in universal promptable lesion segmentation and automated longitudinal lesion tracking but also provides the first open-access solution of its kind, releasing our synthetic 4D dataset and model to the community, empowering future advancements in medical imaging. Code is available at: www.github.com/MIC-DKFZ/LesionLocator
Decade of Natural Language Processing in Chronic Pain: A Systematic Review
In recent years, the intersection of Natural Language Processing (NLP) and public health has opened innovative pathways for investigating various domains, including chronic pain in textual datasets. Despite the promise of NLP in chronic pain, the literature is dispersed across various disciplines, and there is a need to consolidate existing knowledge, identify knowledge gaps in the literature, and inform future research directions in this emerging field. This review aims to investigate the state of the research on NLP-based interventions designed for chronic pain research. A search strategy was formulated and executed across PubMed, Web of Science, IEEE Xplore, Scopus, and ACL Anthology to find studies published in English between 2014 and 2024. After screening 132 papers, 26 studies were included in the final review. Key findings from this review underscore the significant potential of NLP techniques to address pressing challenges in chronic pain research. The past 10 years in this field have showcased the utilization of advanced methods (transformers like RoBERTa and BERT) achieving high-performance metrics (e.g., F1>0.8) in classification tasks, while unsupervised approaches like Latent Dirichlet Allocation (LDA) and k-means clustering have proven effective for exploratory analyses. Results also reveal persistent challenges such as limited dataset diversity, inadequate sample sizes, and insufficient representation of underrepresented populations. Future research studies should explore multimodal data validation systems, context-aware mechanistic modeling, and the development of standardized evaluation metrics to enhance reproducibility and equity in chronic pain research.
Application of CARE-SD text classifier tools to assess distribution of stigmatizing and doubt-marking language features in EHR
Introduction: Electronic health records (EHR) are a critical medium through which patient stigmatization is perpetuated among healthcare teams. Methods: We identified linguistic features of doubt markers and stigmatizing labels in MIMIC-III EHR via expanded lexicon matching and supervised learning classifiers. Predictors of rates of linguistic features were assessed using Poisson regression models. Results: We found higher rates of stigmatizing labels per chart among patients who were Black or African American (RR: 1.16), patients with Medicare/Medicaid or government-run insurance (RR: 2.46), self-pay (RR: 2.12), and patients with a variety of stigmatizing disease and mental health conditions. Patterns among doubt markers were similar, though male patients had higher rates of doubt markers (RR: 1.25). We found increased stigmatizing labels used by nurses (RR: 1.40), and social workers (RR: 2.25), with similar patterns of doubt markers. Discussion: Stigmatizing language occurred at higher rates among historically stigmatized patients, perpetuated by multiple provider types.
Large Language Models for Cuffless Blood Pressure Measurement From Wearable Biosignals
Large language models (LLMs) have captured significant interest from both academia and industry due to their impressive performance across various textual tasks. However, the potential of LLMs to analyze physiological time-series data remains an emerging research field. Particularly, there is a notable gap in the utilization of LLMs for analyzing wearable biosignals to achieve cuffless blood pressure (BP) measurement, which is critical for the management of cardiovascular diseases. This paper presents the first work to explore the capacity of LLMs to perform cuffless BP estimation based on wearable biosignals. We extracted physiological features from electrocardiogram (ECG) and photoplethysmogram (PPG) signals and designed context-enhanced prompts by combining these features with BP domain knowledge and user information. Subsequently, we adapted LLMs to BP estimation tasks through fine-tuning. To evaluate the proposed approach, we conducted assessments of ten advanced LLMs using a comprehensive public dataset of wearable biosignals from 1,272 participants. The experimental results demonstrate that the optimally fine-tuned LLM significantly surpasses conventional task-specific baselines, achieving an estimation error of 0.00 pm 9.25 mmHg for systolic BP and 1.29 pm 6.37 mmHg for diastolic BP. Notably, the ablation studies highlight the benefits of our context enhancement strategy, leading to an 8.9% reduction in mean absolute error for systolic BP estimation. This paper pioneers the exploration of LLMs for cuffless BP measurement, providing a potential solution to enhance the accuracy of cuffless BP measurement.
Almanac Copilot: Towards Autonomous Electronic Health Record Navigation
Clinicians spend large amounts of time on clinical documentation, and inefficiencies impact quality of care and increase clinician burnout. Despite the promise of electronic medical records (EMR), the transition from paper-based records has been negatively associated with clinician wellness, in part due to poor user experience, increased burden of documentation, and alert fatigue. In this study, we present Almanac Copilot, an autonomous agent capable of assisting clinicians with EMR-specific tasks such as information retrieval and order placement. On EHR-QA, a synthetic evaluation dataset of 300 common EHR queries based on real patient data, Almanac Copilot obtains a successful task completion rate of 74% (n = 221 tasks) with a mean score of 2.45 over 3 (95% CI:2.34-2.56). By automating routine tasks and streamlining the documentation process, our findings highlight the significant potential of autonomous agents to mitigate the cognitive load imposed on clinicians by current EMR systems.
Active Learning for Forecasting Severity among Patients with Post Acute Sequelae of SARS-CoV-2
The long-term effects of Postacute Sequelae of SARS-CoV-2, known as PASC, pose a significant challenge to healthcare systems worldwide. Accurate identification of progression events, such as hospitalization and reinfection, is essential for effective patient management and resource allocation. However, traditional models trained on structured data struggle to capture the nuanced progression of PASC. In this study, we introduce the first publicly available cohort of 18 PASC patients, with text time series features based on Large Language Model Llama-3.1-70B-Instruct and clinical risk annotated by clinical expert. We propose an Active Attention Network to predict the clinical risk and identify progression events related to the risk. By integrating human expertise with active learning, we aim to enhance clinical risk prediction accuracy and enable progression events identification with fewer number of annotation. The ultimate goal is to improves patient care and decision-making for SARS-CoV-2 patient.
CAPTURE-24: A large dataset of wrist-worn activity tracker data collected in the wild for human activity recognition
Existing activity tracker datasets for human activity recognition are typically obtained by having participants perform predefined activities in an enclosed environment under supervision. This results in small datasets with a limited number of activities and heterogeneity, lacking the mixed and nuanced movements normally found in free-living scenarios. As such, models trained on laboratory-style datasets may not generalise out of sample. To address this problem, we introduce a new dataset involving wrist-worn accelerometers, wearable cameras, and sleep diaries, enabling data collection for over 24 hours in a free-living setting. The result is CAPTURE-24, a large activity tracker dataset collected in the wild from 151 participants, amounting to 3883 hours of accelerometer data, of which 2562 hours are annotated. CAPTURE-24 is two to three orders of magnitude larger than existing publicly available datasets, which is critical to developing accurate human activity recognition models.
Pain level and pain-related behaviour classification using GRU-based sparsely-connected RNNs
There is a growing body of studies on applying deep learning to biometrics analysis. Certain circumstances, however, could impair the objective measures and accuracy of the proposed biometric data analysis methods. For instance, people with chronic pain (CP) unconsciously adapt specific body movements to protect themselves from injury or additional pain. Because there is no dedicated benchmark database to analyse this correlation, we considered one of the specific circumstances that potentially influence a person's biometrics during daily activities in this study and classified pain level and pain-related behaviour in the EmoPain database. To achieve this, we proposed a sparsely-connected recurrent neural networks (s-RNNs) ensemble with the gated recurrent unit (GRU) that incorporates multiple autoencoders using a shared training framework. This architecture is fed by multidimensional data collected from inertial measurement unit (IMU) and surface electromyography (sEMG) sensors. Furthermore, to compensate for variations in the temporal dimension that may not be perfectly represented in the latent space of s-RNNs, we fused hand-crafted features derived from information-theoretic approaches with represented features in the shared hidden state. We conducted several experiments which indicate that the proposed method outperforms the state-of-the-art approaches in classifying both pain level and pain-related behaviour.
Patient-Specific Autoregressive Models for Organ Motion Prediction in Radiotherapy
Radiotherapy often involves a prolonged treatment period. During this time, patients may experience organ motion due to breathing and other physiological factors. Predicting and modeling this motion before treatment is crucial for ensuring precise radiation delivery. However, existing pre-treatment organ motion prediction methods primarily rely on deformation analysis using principal component analysis (PCA), which is highly dependent on registration quality and struggles to capture periodic temporal dynamics for motion modeling.In this paper, we observe that organ motion prediction closely resembles an autoregressive process, a technique widely used in natural language processing (NLP). Autoregressive models predict the next token based on previous inputs, naturally aligning with our objective of predicting future organ motion phases. Building on this insight, we reformulate organ motion prediction as an autoregressive process to better capture patient-specific motion patterns. Specifically, we acquire 4D CT scans for each patient before treatment, with each sequence comprising multiple 3D CT phases. These phases are fed into the autoregressive model to predict future phases based on prior phase motion patterns. We evaluate our method on a real-world test set of 4D CT scans from 50 patients who underwent radiotherapy at our institution and a public dataset containing 4D CT scans from 20 patients (some with multiple scans), totaling over 1,300 3D CT phases. The performance in predicting the motion of the lung and heart surpasses existing benchmarks, demonstrating its effectiveness in capturing motion dynamics from CT images. These results highlight the potential of our method to improve pre-treatment planning in radiotherapy, enabling more precise and adaptive radiation delivery.
Foundation models for electronic health records: representation dynamics and transferability
Foundation models (FMs) trained on electronic health records (EHRs) have shown strong performance on a range of clinical prediction tasks. However, adapting these models to local health systems remains challenging due to limited data availability and resource constraints. In this study, we investigated what these models learn and evaluated the transferability of an FM trained on MIMIC-IV to an institutional EHR dataset at the University of Chicago Medical Center. We assessed their ability to identify outlier patients and examined representation-space patient trajectories in relation to future clinical outcomes. We also evaluated the performance of supervised fine-tuned classifiers on both source and target datasets. Our findings offer insights into the adaptability of FMs across different healthcare systems, highlight considerations for their effective implementation, and provide an empirical analysis of the underlying factors that contribute to their predictive performance.
PPGFlowECG: Latent Rectified Flow with Cross-Modal Encoding for PPG-Guided ECG Generation and Cardiovascular Disease Detection
In clinical practice, electrocardiography (ECG) remains the gold standard for cardiac monitoring, providing crucial insights for diagnosing a wide range of cardiovascular diseases (CVDs). However, its reliance on specialized equipment and trained personnel limits feasibility for continuous routine monitoring. Photoplethysmography (PPG) offers accessible, continuous monitoring but lacks definitive electrophysiological information, preventing conclusive diagnosis. Generative models present a promising approach to translate PPG into clinically valuable ECG signals, yet current methods face substantial challenges, including the misalignment of physiological semantics in generative models and the complexity of modeling in high-dimensional signals. To this end, we propose PPGFlowECG, a two-stage framework that aligns PPG and ECG in a shared latent space via the CardioAlign Encoder and employs latent rectified flow to generate ECGs with high fidelity and interpretability. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first study to experiment on MCMED, a newly released clinical-grade dataset comprising over 10 million paired PPG-ECG samples from more than 118,000 emergency department visits with expert-labeled cardiovascular disease annotations. Results demonstrate the effectiveness of our method for PPG-to-ECG translation and cardiovascular disease detection. Moreover, cardiologist-led evaluations confirm that the synthesized ECGs achieve high fidelity and improve diagnostic reliability, underscoring our method's potential for real-world cardiovascular screening.
Leveraging Large Language Models for Analyzing Blood Pressure Variations Across Biological Sex from Scientific Literature
Hypertension, defined as blood pressure (BP) that is above normal, holds paramount significance in the realm of public health, as it serves as a critical precursor to various cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) and significantly contributes to elevated mortality rates worldwide. However, many existing BP measurement technologies and standards might be biased because they do not consider clinical outcomes, comorbidities, or demographic factors, making them inconclusive for diagnostic purposes. There is limited data-driven research focused on studying the variance in BP measurements across these variables. In this work, we employed GPT-35-turbo, a large language model (LLM), to automatically extract the mean and standard deviation values of BP for both males and females from a dataset comprising 25 million abstracts sourced from PubMed. 993 article abstracts met our predefined inclusion criteria (i.e., presence of references to blood pressure, units of blood pressure such as mmHg, and mention of biological sex). Based on the automatically-extracted information from these articles, we conducted an analysis of the variations of BP values across biological sex. Our results showed the viability of utilizing LLMs to study the BP variations across different demographic factors.
Enhancing Spatiotemporal Disease Progression Models via Latent Diffusion and Prior Knowledge
In this work, we introduce Brain Latent Progression (BrLP), a novel spatiotemporal disease progression model based on latent diffusion. BrLP is designed to predict the evolution of diseases at the individual level on 3D brain MRIs. Existing deep generative models developed for this task are primarily data-driven and face challenges in learning disease progressions. BrLP addresses these challenges by incorporating prior knowledge from disease models to enhance the accuracy of predictions. To implement this, we propose to integrate an auxiliary model that infers volumetric changes in various brain regions. Additionally, we introduce Latent Average Stabilization (LAS), a novel technique to improve spatiotemporal consistency of the predicted progression. BrLP is trained and evaluated on a large dataset comprising 11,730 T1-weighted brain MRIs from 2,805 subjects, collected from three publicly available, longitudinal Alzheimer's Disease (AD) studies. In our experiments, we compare the MRI scans generated by BrLP with the actual follow-up MRIs available from the subjects, in both cross-sectional and longitudinal settings. BrLP demonstrates significant improvements over existing methods, with an increase of 22% in volumetric accuracy across AD-related brain regions and 43% in image similarity to the ground-truth scans. The ability of BrLP to generate conditioned 3D scans at the subject level, along with the novelty of integrating prior knowledge to enhance accuracy, represents a significant advancement in disease progression modeling, opening new avenues for precision medicine. The code of BrLP is available at the following link: https://github.com/LemuelPuglisi/BrLP.
A novel music-based game with motion capture to support cognitive and motor function in the elderly
This paper presents a novel game prototype that uses music and motion detection as preventive medicine for the elderly. Given the aging populations around the globe, and the limited resources and staff able to care for these populations, eHealth solutions are becoming increasingly important, if not crucial, additions to modern healthcare and preventive medicine. Furthermore, because compliance rates for performing physical exercises are often quite low in the elderly, systems able to motivate and engage this population are a necessity. Our prototype uses music not only to engage listeners, but also to leverage the efficacy of music to improve mental and physical wellness. The game is based on a memory task to stimulate cognitive function, and requires users to perform physical gestures to mimic the playing of different musical instruments. To this end, the Microsoft Kinect sensor is used together with a newly developed gesture detection module in order to process users' gestures. The resulting prototype system supports both cognitive functioning and physical strengthening in the elderly.
Label Dependent Attention Model for Disease Risk Prediction Using Multimodal Electronic Health Records
Disease risk prediction has attracted increasing attention in the field of modern healthcare, especially with the latest advances in artificial intelligence (AI). Electronic health records (EHRs), which contain heterogeneous patient information, are widely used in disease risk prediction tasks. One challenge of applying AI models for risk prediction lies in generating interpretable evidence to support the prediction results while retaining the prediction ability. In order to address this problem, we propose the method of jointly embedding words and labels whereby attention modules learn the weights of words from medical notes according to their relevance to the names of risk prediction labels. This approach boosts interpretability by employing an attention mechanism and including the names of prediction tasks in the model. However, its application is only limited to the handling of textual inputs such as medical notes. In this paper, we propose a label dependent attention model LDAM to 1) improve the interpretability by exploiting Clinical-BERT (a biomedical language model pre-trained on a large clinical corpus) to encode biomedically meaningful features and labels jointly; 2) extend the idea of joint embedding to the processing of time-series data, and develop a multi-modal learning framework for integrating heterogeneous information from medical notes and time-series health status indicators. To demonstrate our method, we apply LDAM to the MIMIC-III dataset to predict different disease risks. We evaluate our method both quantitatively and qualitatively. Specifically, the predictive power of LDAM will be shown, and case studies will be carried out to illustrate its interpretability.
EHRMamba: Towards Generalizable and Scalable Foundation Models for Electronic Health Records
Transformers have significantly advanced the modeling of Electronic Health Records (EHR), yet their deployment in real-world healthcare is limited by several key challenges. Firstly, the quadratic computational cost and insufficient context length of these models pose significant obstacles for hospitals in processing the extensive medical histories typical in EHR data. Additionally, existing models employ separate finetuning for each clinical task, complicating maintenance in healthcare environments. Moreover, these models focus exclusively on either clinical prediction or EHR forecasting, lacking the flexibility to perform well across both. To overcome these limitations, we introduce EHRMamba, a robust foundation model built on the Mamba architecture. EHRMamba can process sequences up to four times longer than previous models due to its linear computational cost. We also introduce a novel approach to Multitask Prompted Finetuning (MTF) for EHR data, which enables EHRMamba to simultaneously learn multiple clinical tasks in a single finetuning phase, significantly enhancing deployment and cross-task generalization. Furthermore, our model leverages the HL7 FHIR data standard to simplify integration into existing hospital systems. Alongside EHRMamba, we open-source Odyssey, a toolkit designed to support the development and deployment of EHR foundation models, with an emphasis on data standardization and interpretability. Our evaluations on the MIMIC-IV dataset demonstrate that EHRMamba advances state-of-the-art performance across 6 major clinical tasks and excels in EHR forecasting, marking a significant leap forward in the field.
Leveraging Natural Language Processing For Public Health Screening On YouTube: A COVID-19 Case Study
Background: Social media platforms have become a viable source of medical information, with patients and healthcare professionals using them to share health-related information and track diseases. Similarly, YouTube, the largest video-sharing platform in the world contains vlogs where individuals talk about their illnesses. The aim of our study was to investigate the use of Natural Language Processing (NLP) to identify the spoken content of YouTube vlogs related to the diagnosis of Coronavirus disease of 2019 (COVID-19) for public health screening. Methods: COVID-19 videos on YouTube were searched using relevant keywords. A total of 1000 videos being spoken in English were downloaded out of which 791 were classified as vlogs, 192 were non-vlogs, and 17 were deleted by the channel. The videos were converted into a textual format using Microsoft Streams. The textual data was preprocessed using basic and advanced preprocessing methods. A lexicon of 200 words was created which contained words related to COVID-19. The data was analyzed using topic modeling, word clouds, and lexicon matching. Results: The word cloud results revealed discussions about COVID-19 symptoms like "fever", along with generic terms such as "mask" and "isolation". Lexical analysis demonstrated that in 96.46% of videos, patients discussed generic terms, and in 95.45% of videos, people talked about COVID-19 symptoms. LDA Topic Modeling results also generated topics that successfully captured key themes and content related to our investigation of COVID-19 diagnoses in YouTube vlogs. Conclusion: By leveraging NLP techniques on YouTube vlogs public health practitioners can enhance their ability to mitigate the effects of pandemics and effectively respond to public health challenges.
Coefficient of Variation Masking: A Volatility-Aware Strategy for EHR Foundation Models
Masked autoencoders (MAEs) are increasingly applied to electronic health records (EHR) for learning general-purpose representations that support diverse clinical tasks. However, existing approaches typically rely on uniform random masking, implicitly assuming all features are equally predictable. In reality, laboratory tests exhibit substantial heterogeneity in volatility: some biomarkers (e.g., sodium) remain stable, while others (e.g., lactate) fluctuate considerably and are more difficult to model. Clinically, volatile biomarkers often signal acute pathophysiology and require more sophisticated modeling to capture their complex temporal patterns. We propose a volatility-aware pretraining strategy, Coefficient of Variation Masking (CV-Masking), that adaptively adjusts masking probabilities according to the intrinsic variability of each feature. Combined with a value-only masking objective aligned with clinical workflows, CV-Masking yields systematic improvements over random and variance-based strategies. Experiments on a large panel of laboratory tests show that CV-Masking enhances reconstruction, improves downstream predictive performance, and accelerates convergence, producing more robust and clinically meaningful EHR representations.
Real-time respiratory motion forecasting with online learning of recurrent neural networks for accurate targeting in externally guided radiotherapy
In lung radiotherapy, infrared cameras can track reflective objects on the chest to estimate tumor motion due to breathing, but treatment system latencies hinder radiation beam precision. Real-time recurrent learning (RTRL) is a potential solution that can learn patterns within non-stationary respiratory data but has high complexity. This study assesses the capabilities of resource-efficient online RNN algorithms, namely unbiased online recurrent optimization (UORO), sparse-1 step approximation (SnAp-1), and decoupled neural interfaces (DNI) to forecast respiratory motion during radiotherapy treatment accurately. We use time series containing the 3D positions of external markers on the chest of healthy subjects. We propose efficient implementations for SnAp-1 and DNI that compress the influence and immediate Jacobian matrices and accurately update the linear coefficients used in credit assignment estimation, respectively. Data was originally sampled at 10Hz; we resampled it at 3.33Hz and 30Hz to analyze the effect of the sampling rate on performance. We use UORO, SnAp-1, and DNI to forecast each marker's 3D position with horizons h<=2.1s (the time interval in advance for which the prediction is made) and compare them with RTRL, least mean squares, kernel support vector regression, and linear regression. RNNs trained online achieved similar or better accuracy than most previous works using larger training databases and deep learning, even though we used only the first minute of each sequence to predict motion within that exact sequence. SnAp-1 had the lowest normalized root mean square errors (nRMSEs) averaged over the horizon values considered, equal to 0.335 and 0.157, at 3.33Hz and 10.0Hz, respectively. Similarly, UORO had the lowest nRMSE at 30Hz, equal to 0.086. DNI's inference time (6.8ms per time step at 30Hz, Intel Core i7-13700 CPU) was the lowest among the RNN methods.
Individual Survival Curves with Conditional Normalizing Flows
Survival analysis, or time-to-event modelling, is a classical statistical problem that has garnered a lot of interest for its practical use in epidemiology, demographics or actuarial sciences. Recent advances on the subject from the point of view of machine learning have been concerned with precise per-individual predictions instead of population studies, driven by the rise of individualized medicine. We introduce here a conditional normalizing flow based estimate of the time-to-event density as a way to model highly flexible and individualized conditional survival distributions. We use a novel hierarchical formulation of normalizing flows to enable efficient fitting of flexible conditional distributions without overfitting and show how the normalizing flow formulation can be efficiently adapted to the censored setting. We experimentally validate the proposed approach on a synthetic dataset as well as four open medical datasets and an example of a common financial problem.
EHRSHOT: An EHR Benchmark for Few-Shot Evaluation of Foundation Models
While the general machine learning (ML) community has benefited from public datasets, tasks, and models, the progress of ML in healthcare has been hampered by a lack of such shared assets. The success of foundation models creates new challenges for healthcare ML by requiring access to shared pretrained models to validate performance benefits. We help address these challenges through three contributions. First, we publish a new dataset, EHRSHOT, which contains deidentified structured data from the electronic health records (EHRs) of 6,739 patients from Stanford Medicine. Unlike MIMIC-III/IV and other popular EHR datasets, EHRSHOT is longitudinal and not restricted to ICU/ED patients. Second, we publish the weights of CLMBR-T-base, a 141M parameter clinical foundation model pretrained on the structured EHR data of 2.57M patients. We are one of the first to fully release such a model for coded EHR data; in contrast, most prior models released for clinical data (e.g. GatorTron, ClinicalBERT) only work with unstructured text and cannot process the rich, structured data within an EHR. We provide an end-to-end pipeline for the community to validate and build upon its performance. Third, we define 15 few-shot clinical prediction tasks, enabling evaluation of foundation models on benefits such as sample efficiency and task adaptation. Our model and dataset are available via a research data use agreement from the Stanford AIMI Center. Code to reproduce our results are available at our Github repo: https://github.com/som-shahlab/ehrshot-benchmark
Towards Interpretable Counterfactual Generation via Multimodal Autoregression
Counterfactual medical image generation enables clinicians to explore clinical hypotheses, such as predicting disease progression, facilitating their decision-making. While existing methods can generate visually plausible images from disease progression prompts, they produce silent predictions that lack interpretation to verify how the generation reflects the hypothesized progression -- a critical gap for medical applications that require traceable reasoning. In this paper, we propose Interpretable Counterfactual Generation (ICG), a novel task requiring the joint generation of counterfactual images that reflect the clinical hypothesis and interpretation texts that outline the visual changes induced by the hypothesis. To enable ICG, we present ICG-CXR, the first dataset pairing longitudinal medical images with hypothetical progression prompts and textual interpretations. We further introduce ProgEmu, an autoregressive model that unifies the generation of counterfactual images and textual interpretations. We demonstrate the superiority of ProgEmu in generating progression-aligned counterfactuals and interpretations, showing significant potential in enhancing clinical decision support and medical education. Project page: https://progemu.github.io.
