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Dec 11

SpecReason: Fast and Accurate Inference-Time Compute via Speculative Reasoning

Recent advances in inference-time compute have significantly improved performance on complex tasks by generating long chains of thought (CoTs) using Large Reasoning Models (LRMs). However, this improved accuracy comes at the cost of high inference latency due to the length of generated reasoning sequences and the autoregressive nature of decoding. Our key insight in tackling these overheads is that LRM inference, and the reasoning that it embeds, is highly tolerant of approximations: complex tasks are typically broken down into simpler steps, each of which brings utility based on the semantic insight it provides for downstream steps rather than the exact tokens it generates. Accordingly, we introduce SpecReason, a system that automatically accelerates LRM inference by using a lightweight model to (speculatively) carry out simpler intermediate reasoning steps and reserving the costly base model only to assess (and potentially correct) the speculated outputs. Importantly, SpecReason's focus on exploiting the semantic flexibility of thinking tokens in preserving final-answer accuracy is complementary to prior speculation techniques, most notably speculative decoding, which demands token-level equivalence at each step. Across a variety of reasoning benchmarks, SpecReason achieves 1.5-2.5times speedup over vanilla LRM inference while improving accuracy by 1.0-9.9\%. Compared to speculative decoding without SpecReason, their combination yields an additional 19.4-44.2\% latency reduction. We open-source SpecReason at https://github.com/ruipeterpan/specreason.

  • 6 authors
·
Apr 10 3

Thinking with Drafts: Speculative Temporal Reasoning for Efficient Long Video Understanding

Long video understanding is essential for human-like intelligence, enabling coherent perception and reasoning over extended temporal contexts. While the emerging thinking-with-frames paradigm, which alternates between global temporal reasoning and local frame examination, has advanced the reasoning capabilities of video multi-modal large language models (MLLMs), it suffers from a significant efficiency bottleneck due to the progressively growing and redundant multi-modal context. To address this, we propose SpecTemp, a reinforcement learning-based Speculative Temporal reasoning framework that decouples temporal perception from reasoning via a cooperative dual-model design. In SpecTemp, a lightweight draft MLLM rapidly explores and proposes salient frames from densely sampled temporal regions, while a powerful target MLLM focuses on temporal reasoning and verifies the draft's proposals, iteratively refining its attention until convergence. This design mirrors the collaborative pathways of the human brain, balancing efficiency with accuracy. To support training, we construct the SpecTemp-80K dataset, featuring synchronized dual-level annotations for coarse evidence spans and fine-grained frame-level evidence. Experiments across multiple video understanding benchmarks demonstrate that SpecTemp not only maintains competitive accuracy but also significantly accelerates inference compared with existing thinking-with-frames methods.

  • 9 authors
·
Nov 30

Speculative Thinking: Enhancing Small-Model Reasoning with Large Model Guidance at Inference Time

Recent advances leverage post-training to enhance model reasoning performance, which typically requires costly training pipelines and still suffers from inefficient, overly lengthy outputs. We introduce Speculative Thinking, a training-free framework that enables large reasoning models to guide smaller ones during inference at the reasoning level, distinct from speculative decoding, which operates at the token level. Our approach is based on two observations: (1) reasoning-supportive tokens such as "wait" frequently appear after structural delimiters like "\n\n", serving as signals for reflection or continuation; and (2) larger models exhibit stronger control over reflective behavior, reducing unnecessary backtracking while improving reasoning quality. By strategically delegating reflective steps to a more capable model, our method significantly boosts the reasoning accuracy of reasoning models while shortening their output. With the assistance of the 32B reasoning model, the 1.5B model's accuracy on MATH500 increases from 83.2% to 89.4%, marking a substantial improvement of 6.2%. Simultaneously, the average output length is reduced from 5439 tokens to 4583 tokens, representing a 15.7% decrease. Moreover, when applied to a non-reasoning model (Qwen-2.5-7B-Instruct), our framework boosts its accuracy from 74.0% to 81.8% on the same benchmark, achieving a relative improvement of 7.8%.

  • 4 authors
·
Apr 12

SpeContext: Enabling Efficient Long-context Reasoning with Speculative Context Sparsity in LLMs

In this paper, we point out that the objective of the retrieval algorithms is to align with the LLM, which is similar to the objective of knowledge distillation in LLMs. We analyze the similarity in information focus between the distilled language model(DLM) and the original LLM from the perspective of information theory, and thus propose a novel paradigm that leverages a DLM as the retrieval algorithm. Based on the insight, we present SpeContext, an algorithm and system co-design for long-context reasoning. (1) At the algorithm level, SpeContext proposes lightweight retrieval head based on the head-level attention weights of DLM, achieving > 90% parameters reduction by pruning the redundancy. (2) At the system level, SpeContext designs an asynchronous prefetch dataflow via the elastic loading strategy, effectively overlapping KV cache retrieval with the LLM computation. (3) At the compilation level, SpeContext constructs the theoretical memory model and implements an adaptive memory management system to achieve acceleration by maximizing GPU memory utilization. We deploy and evaluate SpeContext in two resourceconstrained environments, cloud and edge. Extensive experiments show that, compared with the Huggingface framework, SpeContext achieves up to 24.89x throughput improvement in cloud and 10.06x speedup in edge with negligible accuracy loss, pushing the Pareto frontier of accuracy and throughput.

In Their Own Words: Reasoning Traces Tailored for Small Models Make Them Better Reasoners

Transferring reasoning capabilities from larger language models to smaller ones through supervised fine-tuning often fails counterintuitively, with performance degrading despite access to high-quality teacher demonstrations. We identify that this failure stems from distributional misalignment: reasoning traces from larger models contain tokens that are low probability under the student's distribution, exceeding the internal representation capacity of smaller architectures and creating learning barriers rather than helpful guidance. We propose Reverse Speculative Decoding (RSD), a mechanism for generating student-friendly reasoning traces in which the teacher model proposes candidate tokens but the student model determines acceptance based on its own probability distributions, filtering low probability tokens. When applied to Qwen3-0.6B, direct distillation of s1K-1.1 reasoning trace data degrades average performance across major reasoning benchmarks by 20.5\%, while the same model trained on RSD-generated reasoning traces achieves meaningful improvements of 4.9\%. Our analysis reveals that low probability tokens constitute the critical bottleneck in reasoning ability transfer. However, cross-model experiments demonstrate that RSD traces are model-specific rather than universally applicable, indicating that distributional alignment must be tailored for each student architecture's unique internal representation.

  • 3 authors
·
Sep 26

Arbitrage: Efficient Reasoning via Advantage-Aware Speculation

Modern Large Language Models achieve impressive reasoning capabilities with long Chain of Thoughts, but they incur substantial computational cost during inference, and this motivates techniques to improve the performance-cost ratio. Among these techniques, Speculative Decoding accelerates inference by employing a fast but inaccurate draft model to autoregressively propose tokens, which are then verified in parallel by a more capable target model. However, due to unnecessary rejections caused by token mismatches in semantically equivalent steps, traditional token-level Speculative Decoding struggles in reasoning tasks. Although recent works have shifted to step-level semantic verification, which improve efficiency by accepting or rejecting entire reasoning steps, existing step-level methods still regenerate many rejected steps with little improvement, wasting valuable target compute. To address this challenge, we propose Arbitrage, a novel step-level speculative generation framework that routes generation dynamically based on the relative advantage between draft and target models. Instead of applying a fixed acceptance threshold, Arbitrage uses a lightweight router trained to predict when the target model is likely to produce a meaningfully better step. This routing approximates an ideal Arbitrage Oracle that always chooses the higher-quality step, achieving near-optimal efficiency-accuracy trade-offs. Across multiple mathematical reasoning benchmarks, Arbitrage consistently surpasses prior step-level Speculative Decoding baselines, reducing inference latency by up to sim2times at matched accuracy.

Reasoning Language Model Inference Serving Unveiled: An Empirical Study

The reasoning large language model (RLLM) has been proven competitive in solving complex reasoning tasks such as mathematics, coding, compared to general LLM. However, the serving performance and behavior of RLLM remains unexplored, which may undermine the deployment and utilization of RLLM in real-world scenario. To close this gap, in this paper, we conduct a comprehensive study of RLLM service. We first perform a pilot study on comparing the serving performance between RLLM and traditional LLM and reveal that there are several distinct differences regarding serving behavior: (1) significant memory usage and fluctuations; (2) straggler requests; (3) adaptive running time; (4) domain preference. Then we further investigate whether existing inference optimization techniques are valid for RLLM. Our main takeaways are that model quantization methods and speculative decoding can improve service system efficiency with small compromise to RLLM accuracy, while prefix caching, KV cache quantization may even degrade accuracy or serving performance for small RLLM. Lastly, we conduct evaluation under real world workload modeled by Gamma distribution to verify our findings. Empirical results of real world workload evaluation across different dataset are aligned with our main findings regarding RLLM serving. We hope our work can provide the research community and industry with insights to advance RLLM inference serving.

  • 9 authors
·
Oct 21 1

Small Drafts, Big Verdict: Information-Intensive Visual Reasoning via Speculation

Large Vision-Language Models (VLMs) have achieved remarkable progress in multimodal understanding, yet they struggle when reasoning over information-intensive images that densely interleave textual annotations with fine-grained graphical elements. The main challenges lie in precisely localizing critical cues in dense layouts and multi-hop reasoning to integrate dispersed evidence. We propose Speculative Verdict (SV), a training-free framework inspired by speculative decoding that combines multiple lightweight draft experts with a large verdict model. In the draft stage, small VLMs act as draft experts to generate reasoning paths that provide diverse localization candidates; in the verdict stage, a strong VLM synthesizes these paths to produce the final answer, minimizing computational cost while recovering correct answers. To further improve efficiency and accuracy, SV introduces a consensus expert selection mechanism that forwards only high-agreement reasoning paths to the verdict. Empirically, SV achieves consistent gains on challenging information-intensive and high-resolution visual question answering benchmarks, including InfographicVQA, ChartMuseum, ChartQAPro, and HR-Bench 4K. By synthesizing correct insights from multiple partially accurate reasoning paths, SV achieves both error correction and cost-efficiency compared to large proprietary models or training pipelines. Code is available at https://github.com/Tinaliu0123/speculative-verdict

  • 3 authors
·
Oct 23

Accelerated Test-Time Scaling with Model-Free Speculative Sampling

Language models have demonstrated remarkable capabilities in reasoning tasks through test-time scaling techniques like best-of-N sampling and tree search. However, these approaches often demand substantial computational resources, creating a critical trade-off between performance and efficiency. We introduce STAND (STochastic Adaptive N-gram Drafting), a novel model-free speculative decoding approach that leverages the inherent redundancy in reasoning trajectories to achieve significant acceleration without compromising accuracy. Our analysis reveals that reasoning paths frequently reuse similar reasoning patterns, enabling efficient model-free token prediction without requiring separate draft models. By introducing stochastic drafting and preserving probabilistic information through a memory-efficient logit-based N-gram module, combined with optimized Gumbel-Top-K sampling and data-driven tree construction, STAND significantly improves token acceptance rates. Extensive evaluations across multiple models and reasoning tasks (AIME-2024, GPQA-Diamond, and LiveCodeBench) demonstrate that STAND reduces inference latency by 60-65% compared to standard autoregressive decoding while maintaining accuracy. Furthermore, STAND outperforms state-of-the-art speculative decoding methods by 14-28% in throughput and shows strong performance even in single-trajectory scenarios, reducing inference latency by 48-58%. As a model-free approach, STAND can be applied to any existing language model without additional training, being a powerful plug-and-play solution for accelerating language model reasoning.

  • 7 authors
·
Jun 5

Scaling Laws for Speculative Decoding

The escalating demand for efficient decoding in large language models (LLMs) is particularly critical for reasoning-intensive architectures like OpenAI-o3 and DeepSeek-R1, which depend on extended chain-of-thought reasoning. This study investigates speculative decoding techniques through dense LLM architectures to establish foundational insights for accelerating reasoning tasks. While speculative decoding methods leveraging parallel draft-verification cycles have emerged as promising acceleration techniques, the scaling laws governing decoding efficiency remain under-explored compared to conventional backbone LLMs developed through Pretraining->SFT->RLHF training paradigms. In this work, we discover Log-linear Scaling Laws (Theorem 1.1, 1.2 and 1.3) governing draft model acceptance rate (or decoding speed) across three dimensions: pretraining token volume, draft model capacity, and decoding batch size. Building on these laws, we achieve Scylla, which coordinates multi-dimensional scaling for popular LLMs (Llama2/3, Qwen2.5). Empirical validation shows Scylla achieves 1.5-2.2 higher acceptance rate than EAGLE2 and 0.3 higher than EAGLE3 at temperature T = 0, with peak performance gains on summarization and QA tasks (Figure 2). Industrial inference engine deployments demonstrate 2X decoding throughput improvements over EAGLE2 (Table 5), validating the transformative potential of systematic scaling for efficient LLM inference. Code will be released later.

  • 11 authors
·
May 8

AdaSPEC: Selective Knowledge Distillation for Efficient Speculative Decoders

Speculative Decoding (SD) accelerates large language model inference by employing a small draft model to generate predictions, which are then verified by a larger target model. The effectiveness of SD hinges on the alignment between these models, which is typically enhanced by Knowledge Distillation (KD). However, conventional KD methods aim to minimize the KL divergence between the draft and target models across all tokens, a goal that is misaligned with the true objective of SD, which is to maximize token acceptance rate. Therefore, draft models often struggle to fully assimilate the target model's knowledge due to capacity constraints, leading to suboptimal performance. To address this challenge, we propose AdaSPEC, a novel method that incorporates selective token filtering into the KD process. AdaSPEC utilizes a reference model to identify and filter out difficult-to-fit tokens, enabling the distillation of a draft model that better aligns with the target model on simpler tokens. This approach improves the overall token acceptance rate without compromising generation quality. We evaluate AdaSPEC across diverse tasks, including arithmetic reasoning, instruction-following, coding, and summarization, using model configurations of 31M/1.4B and 350M/2.7B parameters. Our results demonstrate that AdaSPEC consistently outperforms the state-of-the-art DistillSpec method, achieving higher acceptance rates across all tasks (up to 15\%). The code is publicly available at https://github.com/yuezhouhu/adaspec.

LongSpec: Long-Context Lossless Speculative Decoding with Efficient Drafting and Verification

As Large Language Models (LLMs) can now process extremely long contexts, efficient inference over these extended inputs has become increasingly important, especially for emerging applications like LLM agents that highly depend on this capability. Speculative decoding (SD) offers a promising lossless acceleration technique compared to lossy alternatives such as quantization and model cascades. However, most state-of-the-art SD methods are trained on short texts (typically fewer than 4k tokens), making them unsuitable for long-context scenarios. Specifically, adapting these methods to long contexts presents three key challenges: (1) the excessive memory demands posed by draft models due to large Key-Value (KV) cache; (2) performance degradation resulting from the mismatch between short-context training and long-context inference; and (3) inefficiencies in tree attention mechanisms when managing long token sequences. This work introduces LongSpec, a framework that addresses these challenges through three core innovations: a memory-efficient draft model with a constant-sized KV cache; novel position indices that mitigate the training-inference mismatch; and an attention aggregation strategy that combines fast prefix computation with standard tree attention to enable efficient decoding. Experimental results confirm the effectiveness of LongSpec, achieving up to a 3.26x speedup over strong Flash Attention baselines across five long-context understanding datasets, as well as a 2.25x reduction in wall-clock time on the AIME24 long reasoning task with the QwQ model, demonstrating significant latency improvements for long-context applications. The code is available at https://github.com/sail-sg/LongSpec.

  • 7 authors
·
Feb 24

AI Predicts AGI: Leveraging AGI Forecasting and Peer Review to Explore LLMs' Complex Reasoning Capabilities

We tasked 16 state-of-the-art large language models (LLMs) with estimating the likelihood of Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) emerging by 2030. To assess the quality of these forecasts, we implemented an automated peer review process (LLM-PR). The LLMs' estimates varied widely, ranging from 3% (Reka- Core) to 47.6% (GPT-4o), with a median of 12.5%. These estimates closely align with a recent expert survey that projected a 10% likelihood of AGI by 2027, underscoring the relevance of LLMs in forecasting complex, speculative scenarios. The LLM-PR process demonstrated strong reliability, evidenced by a high Intraclass Correlation Coefficient (ICC = 0.79), reflecting notable consistency in scoring across the models. Among the models, Pplx-70b-online emerged as the top performer, while Gemini-1.5-pro-api ranked the lowest. A cross-comparison with external benchmarks, such as LMSYS Chatbot Arena, revealed that LLM rankings remained consistent across different evaluation methods, suggesting that existing benchmarks may not encapsulate some of the skills relevant for AGI prediction. We further explored the use of weighting schemes based on external benchmarks, optimizing the alignment of LLMs' predictions with human expert forecasts. This analysis led to the development of a new, 'AGI benchmark' designed to highlight performance differences in AGI-related tasks. Our findings offer insights into LLMs' capabilities in speculative, interdisciplinary forecasting tasks and emphasize the growing need for innovative evaluation frameworks for assessing AI performance in complex, uncertain real-world scenarios.

  • 3 authors
·
Dec 12, 2024

Boosting Lossless Speculative Decoding via Feature Sampling and Partial Alignment Distillation

Lossless speculative decoding accelerates target large language model (LLM) inference by employing a lightweight draft model for generating tree-structured candidates, which are subsequently verified in parallel by the target LLM. Currently, effective approaches leverage feature-level rather than token-level autoregression within the draft model to facilitate more straightforward predictions and enhanced knowledge distillation. In this paper, we reassess these approaches and propose FSPAD (Feature Sampling and Partial Alignment Distillation for Lossless Speculative Decoding), which introduces two straightforward and effective components within the existing framework to boost lossless speculative decoding. Firstly, FSPAD utilizes token embeddings to sample features of the target LLM in high-dimensional space before feeding them into the draft model, due to the inherent uncertainty of the features preventing the draft model from obtaining the specific token output by the target LLM. Secondly, FSPAD introduces partial alignment distillation to weaken the draft model's connection between features and logits, aiming to reduce the conflict between feature alignment and logit confidence during training. Our experiments include both greedy and non-greedy decoding on the largest and smallest models from the Vicuna and LLaMA3-Instruct series, as well as tasks in multi-turn conversation, translation, summarization, question answering, mathematical reasoning, and retrieval-augmented generation. The results show that FSPAD outperforms the state-of-the-art method across all the aforementioned tasks and target LLMs.

  • 4 authors
·
Aug 28, 2024

OmniDraft: A Cross-vocabulary, Online Adaptive Drafter for On-device Speculative Decoding

Speculative decoding generally dictates having a small, efficient draft model that is either pretrained or distilled offline to a particular target model series, for instance, Llama or Qwen models. However, within online deployment settings, there are two major challenges: 1) usage of a target model that is incompatible with the draft model; 2) expectation of latency improvements over usage and time. In this work, we propose OmniDraft, a unified framework that enables a single draft model to operate with any target model and adapt dynamically to user data. We introduce an online n-gram cache with hybrid distillation fine-tuning to address the cross-vocabulary mismatch across draft and target models; and further improve decoding speed by leveraging adaptive drafting techniques. OmniDraft is particularly suitable for on-device LLM applications where model cost, efficiency and user customization are the major points of contention. This further highlights the need to tackle the above challenges and motivates the ``one drafter for all'' paradigm. We showcase the proficiency of the OmniDraft framework by performing online learning on math reasoning, coding and text generation tasks. Notably, OmniDraft enables a single Llama-68M model to pair with various target models including Vicuna-7B, Qwen2-7B and Llama3-8B models for speculative decoding; and additionally provides up to 1.5-2x speedup.

  • 7 authors
·
Jul 3 2

One Thousand and One Pairs: A "novel" challenge for long-context language models

Synthetic long-context LLM benchmarks (e.g., "needle-in-the-haystack") test only surface-level retrieval capabilities, but how well can long-context LLMs retrieve, synthesize, and reason over information across book-length inputs? We address this question by creating NoCha, a dataset of 1,001 minimally different pairs of true and false claims about 67 recently-published English fictional books, written by human readers of those books. In contrast to existing long-context benchmarks, our annotators confirm that the largest share of pairs in NoCha require global reasoning over the entire book to verify. Our experiments show that while human readers easily perform this task, it is enormously challenging for all ten long-context LLMs that we evaluate: no open-weight model performs above random chance (despite their strong performance on synthetic benchmarks), while GPT-4o achieves the highest accuracy at 55.8%. Further analysis reveals that (1) on average, models perform much better on pairs that require only sentence-level retrieval vs. global reasoning; (2) model-generated explanations for their decisions are often inaccurate even for correctly-labeled claims; and (3) models perform substantially worse on speculative fiction books that contain extensive world-building. The methodology proposed in NoCha allows for the evolution of the benchmark dataset and the easy analysis of future models.

  • 5 authors
·
Jun 23, 2024

ChatPose: Chatting about 3D Human Pose

We introduce ChatPose, a framework employing Large Language Models (LLMs) to understand and reason about 3D human poses from images or textual descriptions. Our work is motivated by the human ability to intuitively understand postures from a single image or a brief description, a process that intertwines image interpretation, world knowledge, and an understanding of body language. Traditional human pose estimation and generation methods often operate in isolation, lacking semantic understanding and reasoning abilities. ChatPose addresses these limitations by embedding SMPL poses as distinct signal tokens within a multimodal LLM, enabling the direct generation of 3D body poses from both textual and visual inputs. Leveraging the powerful capabilities of multimodal LLMs, ChatPose unifies classical 3D human pose and generation tasks while offering user interactions. Additionally, ChatPose empowers LLMs to apply their extensive world knowledge in reasoning about human poses, leading to two advanced tasks: speculative pose generation and reasoning about pose estimation. These tasks involve reasoning about humans to generate 3D poses from subtle text queries, possibly accompanied by images. We establish benchmarks for these tasks, moving beyond traditional 3D pose generation and estimation methods. Our results show that ChatPose outperforms existing multimodal LLMs and task-specific methods on these newly proposed tasks. Furthermore, ChatPose's ability to understand and generate 3D human poses based on complex reasoning opens new directions in human pose analysis.

  • 6 authors
·
Nov 30, 2023

Thought-Path Contrastive Learning via Premise-Oriented Data Augmentation for Logical Reading Comprehension

Logical reading comprehension is a challenging task that entails grasping the underlying semantics of text and applying reasoning to deduce the correct answer. Prior researches have primarily focused on enhancing logical reasoning capabilities through Chain-of-Thought (CoT) or data augmentation. However, previous work constructing chain-of-thought rationales concentrates solely on analyzing correct options, neglecting the incorrect alternatives. Addtionally, earlier efforts on data augmentation by altering contexts rely on rule-based methods, which result in generated contexts that lack diversity and coherence. To address these issues, we propose a Premise-Oriented Data Augmentation (PODA) framework. This framework can generate CoT rationales including analyses for both correct and incorrect options, while constructing diverse and high-quality counterfactual contexts from incorrect candidate options. We integrate summarizing premises and identifying premises for each option into rationales. Subsequently, we employ multi-step prompts with identified premises to construct counterfactual context. To facilitate the model's capabilities to better differentiate the reasoning process associated with each option, we introduce a novel thought-path contrastive learning method that compares reasoning paths between the original and counterfactual samples. Experimental results on three representative LLMs demonstrate that our method can improve the baselines substantially across two challenging logical reasoning benchmarks (ReClor and LogiQA 2.0). The data and code are released at https://github.com/lalalamdbf/TPReasoner.

  • 3 authors
·
Sep 22, 2024

Online Speculative Decoding

Speculative decoding is a pivotal technique to accelerate the inference of large language models (LLMs) by employing a smaller draft model to predict the target model's outputs. However, its efficacy can be limited due to the low predictive accuracy of the draft model, particularly when faced with diverse text inputs and a significant capability gap between the draft and target models. We introduce online speculative decoding (OSD) to address this challenge. The main idea is to continually update (multiple) draft model(s) on observed user query data using the abundant excess computational power in an LLM serving cluster. Given that LLM inference is memory-bounded, the surplus computational power in a typical LLM serving cluster can be repurposed for online retraining of draft models, thereby making the training cost-neutral. Since the query distribution of an LLM service is relatively simple, retraining on query distribution enables the draft model to more accurately predict the target model's outputs, particularly on data originating from query distributions. As the draft model evolves online, it aligns with the query distribution in real time, mitigating distribution shifts. We develop a prototype of online speculative decoding based on online knowledge distillation and evaluate it using both synthetic and real query data on several popular LLMs. The results show a substantial increase in the token acceptance rate by 0.1 to 0.65, which translates into 1.22x to 3.06x latency reduction.

  • 7 authors
·
Oct 11, 2023

Measuring Reasoning Utility in LLMs via Conditional Entropy Reduction

Recent advancements in large language models (LLMs) often rely on generating intermediate reasoning steps to enhance accuracy. However, little work has examined how reasoning utility contributes to the final answer's correctness. Due to the stochastic nature of autoregressive generation, generating more context does not guarantee increased confidence in the answer. If we could predict, during generation, whether a reasoning step will be useful, we could stop early or prune ineffective steps, avoiding distractions in the final decision. We present an oracle study on MATH dataset, using Qwen2.5-32B and GPT-4o to generate reasoning chains, and then employing a separate model (Qwen3-8B) to quantify the utility of these chains for final accuracy. Specifically, we measure the model's uncertainty on the answer span Y at each reasoning step using conditional entropy (expected negative log-likelihood over the vocabulary) with context expanding step by step. Our results show a clear pattern: conditional entropy that decreases over steps is strongly associated with correct answers, whereas flat or increasing entropy often results in wrong answers. We also corroborate that incorrect reasoning paths tend to be longer than correct ones, suggesting that longer reasoning does not necessarily yield better outcomes. These findings serve as a foundation to inspire future work on designing efficient reasoning pipelines that detect and avoid unproductive reasoning early.

  • 1 authors
·
Aug 27

Imitate, Explore, and Self-Improve: A Reproduction Report on Slow-thinking Reasoning Systems

Recently, slow-thinking reasoning systems, such as o1, have demonstrated remarkable capabilities in solving complex reasoning tasks. These systems typically engage in an extended thinking process before responding to a query, allowing them to generate more thorough, accurate, and well-reasoned solutions. These systems are primarily developed and maintained by industry, with their core techniques not publicly disclosed. In response, an increasing number of studies from the research community aim to explore the technical foundations underlying these powerful reasoning systems. Building on these prior efforts, this paper presents a reproduction report on implementing o1-like reasoning systems. We introduce an "imitate, explore, and self-improve" framework as our primary technical approach to train the reasoning model. In the initial phase, we use distilled long-form thought data to fine-tune the reasoning model, enabling it to invoke a slow-thinking mode. The model is then encouraged to explore challenging problems by generating multiple rollouts, which can result in increasingly more high-quality trajectories that lead to correct answers. Furthermore, the model undergoes self-improvement by iteratively refining its training dataset. To verify the effectiveness of this approach, we conduct extensive experiments on three challenging benchmarks. The experimental results demonstrate that our approach achieves competitive performance compared to industry-level reasoning systems on these benchmarks.

  • 14 authors
·
Dec 12, 2024

Detection and Mitigation of Hallucination in Large Reasoning Models: A Mechanistic Perspective

Large Reasoning Models (LRMs) have shown impressive capabilities in multi-step reasoning tasks. However, alongside these successes, a more deceptive form of model error has emerged--Reasoning Hallucination--where logically coherent but factually incorrect reasoning traces lead to persuasive yet faulty conclusions. Unlike traditional hallucinations, these errors are embedded within structured reasoning, making them more difficult to detect and potentially more harmful. In this work, we investigate reasoning hallucinations from a mechanistic perspective. We propose the Reasoning Score, which quantifies the depth of reasoning by measuring the divergence between logits obtained from projecting late layers of LRMs to the vocabulary space, effectively distinguishing shallow pattern-matching from genuine deep reasoning. Using this score, we conduct an in-depth analysis on the ReTruthQA dataset and identify two key reasoning hallucination patterns: early-stage fluctuation in reasoning depth and incorrect backtracking to flawed prior steps. These insights motivate our Reasoning Hallucination Detection (RHD) framework, which achieves state-of-the-art performance across multiple domains. To mitigate reasoning hallucinations, we further introduce GRPO-R, an enhanced reinforcement learning algorithm that incorporates step-level deep reasoning rewards via potential-based shaping. Our theoretical analysis establishes stronger generalization guarantees, and experiments demonstrate improved reasoning quality and reduced hallucination rates.

  • 5 authors
·
May 19

Igniting Language Intelligence: The Hitchhiker's Guide From Chain-of-Thought Reasoning to Language Agents

Large language models (LLMs) have dramatically enhanced the field of language intelligence, as demonstrably evidenced by their formidable empirical performance across a spectrum of complex reasoning tasks. Additionally, theoretical proofs have illuminated their emergent reasoning capabilities, providing a compelling showcase of their advanced cognitive abilities in linguistic contexts. Critical to their remarkable efficacy in handling complex reasoning tasks, LLMs leverage the intriguing chain-of-thought (CoT) reasoning techniques, obliging them to formulate intermediate steps en route to deriving an answer. The CoT reasoning approach has not only exhibited proficiency in amplifying reasoning performance but also in enhancing interpretability, controllability, and flexibility. In light of these merits, recent research endeavors have extended CoT reasoning methodologies to nurture the development of autonomous language agents, which adeptly adhere to language instructions and execute actions within varied environments. This survey paper orchestrates a thorough discourse, penetrating vital research dimensions, encompassing: (i) the foundational mechanics of CoT techniques, with a focus on elucidating the circumstances and justification behind its efficacy; (ii) the paradigm shift in CoT; and (iii) the burgeoning of language agents fortified by CoT approaches. Prospective research avenues envelop explorations into generalization, efficiency, customization, scaling, and safety. This paper caters to a wide audience, including beginners seeking comprehensive knowledge of CoT reasoning and language agents, as well as experienced researchers interested in foundational mechanics and engaging in cutting-edge discussions on these topics. A repository for the related papers is available at https://github.com/Zoeyyao27/CoT-Igniting-Agent.

  • 11 authors
·
Nov 20, 2023

Joint Evaluation of Answer and Reasoning Consistency for Hallucination Detection in Large Reasoning Models

Large Reasoning Models (LRMs) extend large language models with explicit, multi-step reasoning traces to enhance transparency and performance on complex tasks. However, these reasoning traces can be redundant or logically inconsistent, making them a new source of hallucination that is difficult to detect. Existing hallucination detection methods focus primarily on answer-level uncertainty and often fail to detect hallucinations or logical inconsistencies arising from the model's reasoning trace. This oversight is particularly problematic for LRMs, where the explicit thinking trace is not only an important support to the model's decision-making process but also a key source of potential hallucination. To this end, we propose RACE (Reasoning and Answer Consistency Evaluation), a novel framework specifically tailored for hallucination detection in LRMs. RACE operates by extracting essential reasoning steps and computing four diagnostic signals: inter-sample consistency of reasoning traces, entropy-based answer uncertainty, semantic alignment between reasoning and answers, and internal coherence of reasoning. This joint analysis enables fine-grained hallucination detection even when the final answer appears correct. Experiments across datasets and different LLMs demonstrate that RACE outperforms existing hallucination detection baselines, offering a robust and generalizable solution for evaluating LRMs. Our code is available at: https://github.com/bebr2/RACE.

  • 4 authors
·
Jun 5

Turning Trash into Treasure: Accelerating Inference of Large Language Models with Token Recycling

The rapid growth in the parameters of large language models (LLMs) has made inference latency a fundamental bottleneck, limiting broader application of LLMs. Speculative decoding represents a lossless approach to accelerate inference through a guess-and-verify paradigm, leveraging the parallel capabilities of modern hardware. Some speculative decoding methods rely on additional structures to guess draft tokens, such as small models or parameter-efficient architectures, which need extra training before use. Alternatively, retrieval-based train-free techniques build libraries from pre-existing corpora or by n-gram generation. However, they face challenges like large storage requirements, time-consuming retrieval, and limited adaptability. Observing that candidate tokens generated during the decoding process are likely to reoccur in future sequences, we propose Token Recycling. This approach stores candidate tokens in an adjacency matrix and employs a breadth-first search (BFS)-like algorithm on the matrix to construct a draft tree. The tree is then validated through tree attention. New candidate tokens from the decoding process are then used to update the matrix. Token Recycling requires \textless2MB of additional storage and achieves approximately 2x speedup across all sizes of LLMs. It significantly outperforms existing train-free methods by 30\% and even a training method by 25\%. It can be directly applied to any existing LLMs and tasks without the need for adaptation.

  • 8 authors
·
Aug 16, 2024 2

Recursive Speculative Decoding: Accelerating LLM Inference via Sampling Without Replacement

Speculative decoding is an inference-acceleration method for large language models (LLMs) where a small language model generates a draft-token sequence which is further verified by the target LLM in parallel. Recent works have advanced this method by establishing a draft-token tree, achieving superior performance over a single-sequence speculative decoding. However, those works independently generate tokens at each level of the tree, not leveraging the tree's entire diversifiability. Besides, their empirical superiority has been shown for fixed length of sequences, implicitly granting more computational resource to LLM for the tree-based methods. None of the existing works has conducted empirical studies with fixed target computational budgets despite its importance to resource-bounded devices. We present Recursive Speculative Decoding (RSD), a novel tree-based method that samples draft tokens without replacement and maximizes the diversity of the tree. During RSD's drafting, the tree is built by either Gumbel-Top-k trick that draws tokens without replacement in parallel or Stochastic Beam Search that samples sequences without replacement while early-truncating unlikely draft sequences and reducing the computational cost of LLM. We empirically evaluate RSD with Llama 2 and OPT models, showing that RSD outperforms the baseline methods, consistently for fixed draft sequence length and in most cases for fixed computational budgets at LLM.

  • 6 authors
·
Feb 21, 2024

Critical-Questions-of-Thought: Steering LLM reasoning with Argumentative Querying

Studies have underscored how, regardless of the recent breakthrough and swift advances in AI research, even state-of-the-art Large Language models (LLMs) continue to struggle when performing logical and mathematical reasoning. The results seem to suggest that LLMs still work as (highly advanced) data pattern identifiers, scoring poorly when attempting to generalise and solve reasoning problems the models have never previously seen or that are not close to samples presented in their training data. To address this compelling concern, this paper makes use of the notion of critical questions from the literature on argumentation theory, focusing in particular on Toulmin's model of argumentation. We show that employing these critical questions can improve the reasoning capabilities of LLMs. By probing the rationale behind the models' reasoning process, the LLM can assess whether some logical mistake is occurring and correct it before providing the final reply to the user prompt. The underlying idea is drawn from the gold standard of any valid argumentative procedure: the conclusion is valid if it is entailed by accepted premises. Or, to paraphrase such Aristotelian principle in a real-world approximation, characterised by incomplete information and presumptive logic, the conclusion is valid if not proved otherwise. This approach successfully steers the models' output through a reasoning pipeline, resulting in better performance against the baseline and its Chain-of-Thought (CoT) implementation. To this end, an extensive evaluation of the proposed approach on the MT-Bench Reasoning and Math tasks across a range of LLMs is provided.

  • 3 authors
·
Dec 19, 2024

Safe: Enhancing Mathematical Reasoning in Large Language Models via Retrospective Step-aware Formal Verification

Chain-of-Thought (CoT) prompting has become the de facto method to elicit reasoning capabilities from large language models (LLMs). However, to mitigate hallucinations in CoT that are notoriously difficult to detect, current methods such as process reward models (PRMs) or self-consistency operate as opaque boxes and do not provide checkable evidence for their judgments, possibly limiting their effectiveness. To address this issue, we draw inspiration from the idea that "the gold standard for supporting a mathematical claim is to provide a proof". We propose a retrospective, step-aware formal verification framework Safe. Rather than assigning arbitrary scores, we strive to articulate mathematical claims in formal mathematical language Lean 4 at each reasoning step and provide formal proofs to identify hallucinations. We evaluate our framework Safe across multiple language models and various mathematical datasets, demonstrating a significant performance improvement while offering interpretable and verifiable evidence. We also propose FormalStep as a benchmark for step correctness theorem proving with 30,809 formal statements. To the best of our knowledge, our work represents the first endeavor to utilize formal mathematical language Lean 4 for verifying natural language content generated by LLMs, aligning with the reason why formal mathematical languages were created in the first place: to provide a robust foundation for hallucination-prone human-written proofs.

  • 10 authors
·
Jun 4

Should We Fear Large Language Models? A Structural Analysis of the Human Reasoning System for Elucidating LLM Capabilities and Risks Through the Lens of Heidegger's Philosophy

In the rapidly evolving field of Large Language Models (LLMs), there is a critical need to thoroughly analyze their capabilities and risks. Central to our investigation are two novel elements. Firstly, it is the innovative parallels between the statistical patterns of word relationships within LLMs and Martin Heidegger's concepts of "ready-to-hand" and "present-at-hand," which encapsulate the utilitarian and scientific altitudes humans employ in interacting with the world. This comparison lays the groundwork for positioning LLMs as the digital counterpart to the Faculty of Verbal Knowledge, shedding light on their capacity to emulate certain facets of human reasoning. Secondly, a structural analysis of human reasoning, viewed through Heidegger's notion of truth as "unconcealment" is conducted This foundational principle enables us to map out the inputs and outputs of the reasoning system and divide reasoning into four distinct categories. Respective cognitive faculties are delineated, allowing us to place LLMs within the broader schema of human reasoning, thus clarifying their strengths and inherent limitations. Our findings reveal that while LLMs possess the capability for Direct Explicative Reasoning and Pseudo Rational Reasoning, they fall short in authentic rational reasoning and have no creative reasoning capabilities, due to the current lack of many analogous AI models such as the Faculty of Judgement. The potential and risks of LLMs when they are augmented with other AI technologies are also evaluated. The results indicate that although LLMs have achieved proficiency in some reasoning abilities, the aspiration to match or exceed human intellectual capabilities is yet unattained. This research not only enriches our comprehension of LLMs but also propels forward the discourse on AI's potential and its bounds, paving the way for future explorations into AI's evolving landscape.

  • 1 authors
·
Mar 5, 2024

Is Human-Written Data Enough? The Challenge of Teaching Reasoning to LLMs Without RL or Distillation

Reasoning-capable language models achieve state-of-the-art performance in diverse complex tasks by generating long, explicit Chain-of-Thought (CoT) traces. While recent works show that base models can acquire such reasoning traces via reinforcement learning or distillation from stronger models like DeepSeek-R1, previous works demonstrate that even short CoT prompting without fine-tuning is able to improve reasoning. We ask whether long CoT can be induced in a base model using only prompting or minimal tuning. Using just 20 long CoT examples from the reasoning model QwQ-32B-Preview, we lightly fine-tune the base model Qwen2.5-32B. The resulting model outperforms the much larger Qwen2.5-Math-72B-Instruct, showing that a handful of high-quality examples can unlock strong reasoning capabilities. We further explore using CoT data from non-reasoning models and human annotators, enhanced with prompt engineering, multi-pass editing, and structural guidance. However, neither matches the performance of reasoning model traces, suggesting that certain latent qualities of expert CoT are difficult to replicate. We analyze key properties of reasoning data, such as problem difficulty, diversity, and answer length, that influence reasoning distillation. While challenges remain, we are optimistic that carefully curated human-written CoT, even in small quantities, can activate reasoning behaviors in base models. We release our human-authored dataset across refinement stages and invite further investigation into what makes small-scale reasoning supervision so effective.

  • 25 authors
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Jul 13

Are Reasoning Models More Prone to Hallucination?

Recently evolved large reasoning models (LRMs) show powerful performance in solving complex tasks with long chain-of-thought (CoT) reasoning capability. As these LRMs are mostly developed by post-training on formal reasoning tasks, whether they generalize the reasoning capability to help reduce hallucination in fact-seeking tasks remains unclear and debated. For instance, DeepSeek-R1 reports increased performance on SimpleQA, a fact-seeking benchmark, while OpenAI-o3 observes even severer hallucination. This discrepancy naturally raises the following research question: Are reasoning models more prone to hallucination? This paper addresses the question from three perspectives. (1) We first conduct a holistic evaluation for the hallucination in LRMs. Our analysis reveals that LRMs undergo a full post-training pipeline with cold start supervised fine-tuning (SFT) and verifiable reward RL generally alleviate their hallucination. In contrast, both distillation alone and RL training without cold start fine-tuning introduce more nuanced hallucinations. (2) To explore why different post-training pipelines alters the impact on hallucination in LRMs, we conduct behavior analysis. We characterize two critical cognitive behaviors that directly affect the factuality of a LRM: Flaw Repetition, where the surface-level reasoning attempts repeatedly follow the same underlying flawed logic, and Think-Answer Mismatch, where the final answer fails to faithfully match the previous CoT process. (3) Further, we investigate the mechanism behind the hallucination of LRMs from the perspective of model uncertainty. We find that increased hallucination of LRMs is usually associated with the misalignment between model uncertainty and factual accuracy. Our work provides an initial understanding of the hallucination in LRMs.

  • 8 authors
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May 29 2

Modeling Open-World Cognition as On-Demand Synthesis of Probabilistic Models

When faced with novel situations, people are able to marshal relevant considerations from a wide range of background knowledge and put these to use in inferences and predictions. What permits us to draw in globally relevant information and reason over it coherently? Here, we explore the hypothesis that people use a combination of distributed and symbolic representations to construct bespoke mental models tailored to novel situations. We propose a computational implementation of this idea -- a ``Model Synthesis Architecture'' (MSA) -- using language models to implement global relevance-based retrieval and model synthesis and probabilistic programs to implement bespoke, coherent world models. We evaluate our MSA as a model of human judgments on a novel reasoning dataset. The dataset -- built around a `Model Olympics` domain of sports vignettes -- tests models' capacity for human-like, open-ended reasoning by requiring (i) judgments about novel causal structures described in language; (ii) drawing on large bodies of background knowledge; and (iii) doing both in light of observations that introduce arbitrary novel variables. Our MSA approach captures human judgments better than language model-only baselines, under both direct and chain-of-thought generations from the LM that supports model synthesis. These results suggest that MSAs can be implemented in a way that mirrors people's ability to deliver locally coherent reasoning over globally relevant variables, offering a path to understanding and replicating human reasoning in open-ended domains.

  • 11 authors
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Jul 16

Thought Anchors: Which LLM Reasoning Steps Matter?

Reasoning large language models have recently achieved state-of-the-art performance in many fields. However, their long-form chain-of-thought reasoning creates interpretability challenges as each generated token depends on all previous ones, making the computation harder to decompose. We argue that analyzing reasoning traces at the sentence level is a promising approach to understanding reasoning processes. We present three complementary attribution methods: (1) a black-box method measuring each sentence's counterfactual importance by comparing final answers across 100 rollouts conditioned on the model generating that sentence or one with a different meaning; (2) a white-box method of aggregating attention patterns between pairs of sentences, which identified ``broadcasting'' sentences that receive disproportionate attention from all future sentences via ``receiver'' attention heads; (3) a causal attribution method measuring logical connections between sentences by suppressing attention toward one sentence and measuring the effect on each future sentence's tokens. Each method provides evidence for the existence of thought anchors, reasoning steps that have outsized importance and that disproportionately influence the subsequent reasoning process. These thought anchors are typically planning or backtracking sentences. We provide an open-source tool (www.thought-anchors.com) for visualizing the outputs of our methods, and present a case study showing converging patterns across methods that map how a model performs multi-step reasoning. The consistency across methods demonstrates the potential of sentence-level analysis for a deeper understanding of reasoning models.

  • 4 authors
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Jun 23 1

Quiet-STaR: Language Models Can Teach Themselves to Think Before Speaking

When writing and talking, people sometimes pause to think. Although reasoning-focused works have often framed reasoning as a method of answering questions or completing agentic tasks, reasoning is implicit in almost all written text. For example, this applies to the steps not stated between the lines of a proof or to the theory of mind underlying a conversation. In the Self-Taught Reasoner (STaR, Zelikman et al. 2022), useful thinking is learned by inferring rationales from few-shot examples in question-answering and learning from those that lead to a correct answer. This is a highly constrained setting -- ideally, a language model could instead learn to infer unstated rationales in arbitrary text. We present Quiet-STaR, a generalization of STaR in which LMs learn to generate rationales at each token to explain future text, improving their predictions. We address key challenges, including 1) the computational cost of generating continuations, 2) the fact that the LM does not initially know how to generate or use internal thoughts, and 3) the need to predict beyond individual next tokens. To resolve these, we propose a tokenwise parallel sampling algorithm, using learnable tokens indicating a thought's start and end, and an extended teacher-forcing technique. Encouragingly, generated rationales disproportionately help model difficult-to-predict tokens and improve the LM's ability to directly answer difficult questions. In particular, after continued pretraining of an LM on a corpus of internet text with Quiet-STaR, we find zero-shot improvements on GSM8K (5.9%rightarrow10.9%) and CommonsenseQA (36.3%rightarrow47.2%) and observe a perplexity improvement of difficult tokens in natural text. Crucially, these improvements require no fine-tuning on these tasks. Quiet-STaR marks a step towards LMs that can learn to reason in a more general and scalable way.

  • 6 authors
·
Mar 14, 2024 7

Demystifying Scientific Problem-Solving in LLMs by Probing Knowledge and Reasoning

Scientific problem solving poses unique challenges for LLMs, requiring both deep domain knowledge and the ability to apply such knowledge through complex reasoning. While automated scientific reasoners hold great promise for assisting human scientists, there is currently no widely adopted holistic benchmark for evaluating scientific reasoning, and few approaches systematically disentangle the distinct roles of knowledge and reasoning in these tasks. To address these gaps, we introduce SciReas, a diverse suite of existing benchmarks for scientific reasoning tasks, and SciReas-Pro, a selective subset that requires more complex reasoning. Our holistic evaluation surfaces insights about scientific reasoning performance that remain hidden when relying on individual benchmarks alone. We then propose KRUX, a probing framework for studying the distinct roles of reasoning and knowledge in scientific tasks. Combining the two, we conduct an in-depth analysis that yields several key findings: (1) Retrieving task-relevant knowledge from model parameters is a critical bottleneck for LLMs in scientific reasoning; (2) Reasoning models consistently benefit from external knowledge added in-context on top of the reasoning enhancement; (3) Enhancing verbalized reasoning improves LLMs' ability to surface task-relevant knowledge. Finally, we conduct a lightweight analysis, comparing our science-focused data composition with concurrent efforts on long CoT SFT, and release SciLit01, a strong 8B baseline for scientific reasoning.

  • 5 authors
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Aug 26 2

Deductive Verification of Chain-of-Thought Reasoning

Large Language Models (LLMs) significantly benefit from Chain-of-Thought (CoT) prompting in performing various reasoning tasks. While CoT allows models to produce more comprehensive reasoning processes, its emphasis on intermediate reasoning steps can inadvertently introduce hallucinations and accumulated errors, thereby limiting models' ability to solve complex reasoning tasks. Inspired by how humans engage in careful and meticulous deductive logical reasoning processes to solve tasks, we seek to enable language models to perform explicit and rigorous deductive reasoning, and also ensure the trustworthiness of their reasoning process through self-verification. However, directly verifying the validity of an entire deductive reasoning process is challenging, even with advanced models like ChatGPT. In light of this, we propose to decompose a reasoning verification process into a series of step-by-step subprocesses, each only receiving their necessary context and premises. To facilitate this procedure, we propose Natural Program, a natural language-based deductive reasoning format. Our approach enables models to generate precise reasoning steps where subsequent steps are more rigorously grounded on prior steps. It also empowers language models to carry out reasoning self-verification in a step-by-step manner. By integrating this verification process into each deductive reasoning stage, we significantly enhance the rigor and trustfulness of generated reasoning steps. Along this process, we also improve the answer correctness on complex reasoning tasks. Code will be released at https://github.com/lz1oceani/verify_cot.

  • 7 authors
·
Jun 6, 2023

Towards Reasoning Era: A Survey of Long Chain-of-Thought for Reasoning Large Language Models

Recent advancements in reasoning with large language models (RLLMs), such as OpenAI-O1 and DeepSeek-R1, have demonstrated their impressive capabilities in complex domains like mathematics and coding. A central factor in their success lies in the application of long chain-of-thought (Long CoT) characteristics, which enhance reasoning abilities and enable the solution of intricate problems. However, despite these developments, a comprehensive survey on Long CoT is still lacking, limiting our understanding of its distinctions from traditional short chain-of-thought (Short CoT) and complicating ongoing debates on issues like "overthinking" and "test-time scaling." This survey seeks to fill this gap by offering a unified perspective on Long CoT. (1) We first distinguish Long CoT from Short CoT and introduce a novel taxonomy to categorize current reasoning paradigms. (2) Next, we explore the key characteristics of Long CoT: deep reasoning, extensive exploration, and feasible reflection, which enable models to handle more complex tasks and produce more efficient, coherent outcomes compared to the shallower Short CoT. (3) We then investigate key phenomena such as the emergence of Long CoT with these characteristics, including overthinking, and test-time scaling, offering insights into how these processes manifest in practice. (4) Finally, we identify significant research gaps and highlight promising future directions, including the integration of multi-modal reasoning, efficiency improvements, and enhanced knowledge frameworks. By providing a structured overview, this survey aims to inspire future research and further the development of logical reasoning in artificial intelligence.

  • 10 authors
·
Mar 12

A Survey of Reasoning and Agentic Systems in Time Series with Large Language Models

Time series reasoning treats time as a first-class axis and incorporates intermediate evidence directly into the answer. This survey defines the problem and organizes the literature by reasoning topology with three families: direct reasoning in one step, linear chain reasoning with explicit intermediates, and branch-structured reasoning that explores, revises, and aggregates. The topology is crossed with the main objectives of the field, including traditional time series analysis, explanation and understanding, causal inference and decision making, and time series generation, while a compact tag set spans these axes and captures decomposition and verification, ensembling, tool use, knowledge access, multimodality, agent loops, and LLM alignment regimes. Methods and systems are reviewed across domains, showing what each topology enables and where it breaks down in faithfulness or robustness, along with curated datasets, benchmarks, and resources that support study and deployment (https://github.com/blacksnail789521/Time-Series-Reasoning-Survey). Evaluation practices that keep evidence visible and temporally aligned are highlighted, and guidance is distilled on matching topology to uncertainty, grounding with observable artifacts, planning for shift and streaming, and treating cost and latency as design budgets. We emphasize that reasoning structures must balance capacity for grounding and self-correction against computational cost and reproducibility, while future progress will likely depend on benchmarks that tie reasoning quality to utility and on closed-loop testbeds that trade off cost and risk under shift-aware, streaming, and long-horizon settings. Taken together, these directions mark a shift from narrow accuracy toward reliability at scale, enabling systems that not only analyze but also understand, explain, and act on dynamic worlds with traceable evidence and credible outcomes.

  • 11 authors
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Sep 15

CounterBench: A Benchmark for Counterfactuals Reasoning in Large Language Models

Counterfactual reasoning is widely recognized as one of the most challenging and intricate aspects of causality in artificial intelligence. In this paper, we evaluate the performance of large language models (LLMs) in counterfactual reasoning. In contrast to previous studies that primarily focus on commonsense causal reasoning, where LLMs often rely on prior knowledge for inference, we specifically assess their ability to perform counterfactual inference using a set of formal rules. To support this evaluation, we introduce a new benchmark dataset, CounterBench, comprising 1K counterfactual reasoning questions. The dataset is designed with varying levels of difficulty, diverse causal graph structures, distinct types of counterfactual questions, and multiple nonsensical name variants. Our experiments demonstrate that counterfactual reasoning poses a significant challenge for LLMs, with most models performing at levels comparable to random guessing. To enhance LLM's counterfactual reasoning ability, we propose a novel reasoning paradigm, CoIn, which guides LLMs through iterative reasoning and backtracking to systematically explore counterfactual solutions. Experimental results show that our method significantly improves LLM performance on counterfactual reasoning tasks and consistently enhances performance across different LLMs.Our dataset is available at https://huggingface.co/datasets/CounterBench/CounterBench.

  • 4 authors
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Feb 16

LINC: A Neurosymbolic Approach for Logical Reasoning by Combining Language Models with First-Order Logic Provers

Logical reasoning, i.e., deductively inferring the truth value of a conclusion from a set of premises, is an important task for artificial intelligence with wide potential impacts on science, mathematics, and society. While many prompting-based strategies have been proposed to enable Large Language Models (LLMs) to do such reasoning more effectively, they still appear unsatisfactory, often failing in subtle and unpredictable ways. In this work, we investigate the validity of instead reformulating such tasks as modular neurosymbolic programming, which we call LINC: Logical Inference via Neurosymbolic Computation. In LINC, the LLM acts as a semantic parser, translating premises and conclusions from natural language to expressions in first-order logic. These expressions are then offloaded to an external theorem prover, which symbolically performs deductive inference. Leveraging this approach, we observe significant performance gains on FOLIO and a balanced subset of ProofWriter for three different models in nearly all experimental conditions we evaluate. On ProofWriter, augmenting the comparatively small open-source StarCoder+ (15.5B parameters) with LINC even outperforms GPT-3.5 and GPT-4 with Chain-of-Thought (CoT) prompting by an absolute 38% and 10%, respectively. When used with GPT-4, LINC scores 26% higher than CoT on ProofWriter while performing comparatively on FOLIO. Further analysis reveals that although both methods on average succeed roughly equally often on this dataset, they exhibit distinct and complementary failure modes. We thus provide promising evidence for how logical reasoning over natural language can be tackled through jointly leveraging LLMs alongside symbolic provers. All corresponding code is publicly available at https://github.com/benlipkin/linc

  • 7 authors
·
Oct 23, 2023

Reasoning Model is Stubborn: Diagnosing Instruction Overriding in Reasoning Models

Large language models have demonstrated remarkable proficiency in long and complex reasoning tasks. However, they frequently exhibit a problematic reliance on familiar reasoning patterns, a phenomenon we term reasoning rigidity. Despite explicit instructions from users, these models often override clearly stated conditions and default to habitual reasoning trajectories, leading to incorrect conclusions. This behavior presents significant challenges, particularly in domains such as mathematics and logic puzzle, where precise adherence to specified constraints is critical. To systematically investigate reasoning rigidity, a behavior largely unexplored in prior work, we introduce a expert-curated diagnostic set, . Our dataset includes specially modified variants of existing mathematical benchmarks, namely AIME and MATH500, as well as well-known puzzles deliberately redesigned to require deviation from familiar reasoning strategies. Using this dataset, we identify recurring contamination patterns that occur when models default to ingrained reasoning. Specifically, we categorize this contamination into three distinctive modes: (i) Interpretation Overload, (ii) Input Distrust, and (iii) Partial Instruction Attention, each causing models to ignore or distort provided instructions. We publicly release our diagnostic set to facilitate future research on mitigating reasoning rigidity in language models.

  • 5 authors
·
May 22 2

Training Large Language Models to Reason in a Continuous Latent Space

Large language models (LLMs) are restricted to reason in the "language space", where they typically express the reasoning process with a chain-of-thought (CoT) to solve a complex reasoning problem. However, we argue that language space may not always be optimal for reasoning. For example, most word tokens are primarily for textual coherence and not essential for reasoning, while some critical tokens require complex planning and pose huge challenges to LLMs. To explore the potential of LLM reasoning in an unrestricted latent space instead of using natural language, we introduce a new paradigm Coconut (Chain of Continuous Thought). We utilize the last hidden state of the LLM as a representation of the reasoning state (termed "continuous thought"). Rather than decoding this into a word token, we feed it back to the LLM as the subsequent input embedding directly in the continuous space. Experiments show that Coconut can effectively augment the LLM on several reasoning tasks. This novel latent reasoning paradigm leads to emergent advanced reasoning patterns: the continuous thought can encode multiple alternative next reasoning steps, allowing the model to perform a breadth-first search (BFS) to solve the problem, rather than prematurely committing to a single deterministic path like CoT. Coconut outperforms CoT in certain logical reasoning tasks that require substantial backtracking during planning, with fewer thinking tokens during inference. These findings demonstrate the promise of latent reasoning and offer valuable insights for future research.

  • 7 authors
·
Dec 9, 2024 7

The Impossible Test: A 2024 Unsolvable Dataset and A Chance for an AGI Quiz

This research introduces a novel evaluation framework designed to assess large language models' (LLMs) ability to acknowledge uncertainty on 675 fundamentally unsolvable problems. Using a curated dataset of graduate-level grand challenge questions with intentionally unknowable answers, we evaluated twelve state-of-the-art LLMs, including both open and closed-source models, on their propensity to admit ignorance rather than generate plausible but incorrect responses. The best models scored in 62-68% accuracy ranges for admitting the problem solution was unknown in fields ranging from biology to philosophy and mathematics. We observed an inverse relationship between problem difficulty and model accuracy, with GPT-4 demonstrating higher rates of uncertainty acknowledgment on more challenging problems (35.8%) compared to simpler ones (20.0%). This pattern indicates that models may be more prone to generate speculative answers when problems appear more tractable. The study also revealed significant variations across problem categories, with models showing difficulty in acknowledging uncertainty in invention and NP-hard problems while performing relatively better on philosophical and psychological challenges. These results contribute to the growing body of research on artificial general intelligence (AGI) assessment by highlighting the importance of uncertainty recognition as a critical component of future machine intelligence evaluation. This impossibility test thus extends previous theoretical frameworks for universal intelligence testing by providing empirical evidence of current limitations in LLMs' ability to recognize their own knowledge boundaries, suggesting new directions for improving model training architectures and evaluation approaches.

  • 2 authors
·
Nov 19, 2024 3

Is Chain-of-Thought Reasoning of LLMs a Mirage? A Data Distribution Lens

Chain-of-Thought (CoT) prompting has been shown to improve Large Language Model (LLM) performance on various tasks. With this approach, LLMs appear to produce human-like reasoning steps before providing answers (a.k.a., CoT reasoning), which often leads to the perception that they engage in deliberate inferential processes. However, some initial findings suggest that CoT reasoning may be more superficial than it appears, motivating us to explore further. In this paper, we study CoT reasoning via a data distribution lens and investigate if CoT reasoning reflects a structured inductive bias learned from in-distribution data, allowing the model to conditionally generate reasoning paths that approximate those seen during training. Thus, its effectiveness is fundamentally bounded by the degree of distribution discrepancy between the training data and the test queries. With this lens, we dissect CoT reasoning via three dimensions: task, length, and format. To investigate each dimension, we design DataAlchemy, an isolated and controlled environment to train LLMs from scratch and systematically probe them under various distribution conditions. Our results reveal that CoT reasoning is a brittle mirage that vanishes when it is pushed beyond training distributions. This work offers a deeper understanding of why and when CoT reasoning fails, emphasizing the ongoing challenge of achieving genuine and generalizable reasoning.

Whiteboard-of-Thought: Thinking Step-by-Step Across Modalities

When presented with questions involving visual thinking, humans naturally switch reasoning modalities, often forming mental images or drawing visual aids. Large language models have shown promising results in arithmetic and symbolic reasoning by expressing intermediate reasoning in text as a chain of thought, yet struggle to extend this capability to answer text queries that are easily solved by visual reasoning, even with extensive multimodal pretraining. We introduce a simple method, whiteboard-of-thought prompting, to unlock the visual reasoning capabilities of multimodal large language models across modalities. Whiteboard-of-thought prompting provides multimodal large language models with a metaphorical `whiteboard' to draw out reasoning steps as images, then returns these images back to the model for further processing. We find this can be accomplished with no demonstrations or specialized modules, instead leveraging models' existing ability to write code with libraries such as Matplotlib and Turtle. This simple approach shows state-of-the-art results on four difficult natural language tasks that involve visual and spatial reasoning. We identify multiple settings where GPT-4o using chain-of-thought fails dramatically, including more than one where it achieves 0% accuracy, while whiteboard-of-thought enables up to 92% accuracy in these same settings. We present a detailed exploration of where the technique succeeds as well as its sources of error.

  • 3 authors
·
Jun 20, 2024 1

MARS: Benchmarking the Metaphysical Reasoning Abilities of Language Models with a Multi-task Evaluation Dataset

To enable Large Language Models (LLMs) to function as conscious agents with generalizable reasoning capabilities, it is crucial that they possess the reasoning ability to comprehend situational changes (transitions) in distribution triggered by environmental factors or actions from other agents. Despite its fundamental significance, this ability remains underexplored due to the complexity of modeling infinite possible changes in an event and their associated distributions, coupled with the lack of benchmark data with situational transitions. Addressing these gaps, we propose a novel formulation of reasoning with distributional changes as a three-step discriminative process, termed as MetAphysical ReaSoning. We then introduce the first-ever benchmark, MARS, comprising three tasks corresponding to each step. These tasks systematically assess LLMs' capabilities in reasoning the plausibility of (i) changes in actions, (ii) states caused by changed actions, and (iii) situational transitions driven by changes in action. Extensive evaluations with 20 (L)LMs of varying sizes and methods indicate that all three tasks in this process pose significant challenges, even for state-of-the-art LLMs and LMs after fine-tuning. Further analyses reveal potential causes for the underperformance of LLMs and demonstrate that pre-training them on large-scale conceptualization taxonomies can potentially enhance their metaphysical reasoning capabilities. Our data and models are publicly accessible at https://github.com/HKUST-KnowComp/MARS.

  • 2 authors
·
Jun 4, 2024

Beyond Hallucinations: The Illusion of Understanding in Large Language Models

Large language models (LLMs) are becoming deeply embedded in human communication and decision-making, yet they inherit the ambiguity, bias, and lack of direct access to truth inherent in language itself. While their outputs are fluent, emotionally resonant, and coherent, they are generated through statistical prediction rather than grounded reasoning. This creates the risk of hallucination, responses that sound convincing but lack factual validity. Building on Geoffrey Hinton's observation that AI mirrors human intuition rather than reasoning, this paper argues that LLMs operationalize System 1 cognition at scale: fast, associative, and persuasive, but without reflection or falsification. To address this, we introduce the Rose-Frame, a three-dimensional framework for diagnosing cognitive and epistemic drift in human-AI interaction. The three axes are: (i) Map vs. Territory, which distinguishes representations of reality (epistemology) from reality itself (ontology); (ii) Intuition vs. Reason, drawing on dual-process theory to separate fast, emotional judgments from slow, reflective thinking; and (iii) Conflict vs. Confirmation, which examines whether ideas are critically tested through disagreement or simply reinforced through mutual validation. Each dimension captures a distinct failure mode, and their combination amplifies misalignment. Rose-Frame does not attempt to fix LLMs with more data or rules. Instead, it offers a reflective tool that makes both the model's limitations and the user's assumptions visible, enabling more transparent and critically aware AI deployment. It reframes alignment as cognitive governance: intuition, whether human or artificial, must remain governed by human reason. Only by embedding reflective, falsifiable oversight can we align machine fluency with human understanding.

  • 4 authors
·
Oct 16

ViSpec: Accelerating Vision-Language Models with Vision-Aware Speculative Decoding

Speculative decoding is a widely adopted technique for accelerating inference in large language models (LLMs), yet its application to vision-language models (VLMs) remains underexplored, with existing methods achieving only modest speedups (<1.5x). This gap is increasingly significant as multimodal capabilities become central to large-scale models. We hypothesize that large VLMs can effectively filter redundant image information layer by layer without compromising textual comprehension, whereas smaller draft models struggle to do so. To address this, we introduce Vision-Aware Speculative Decoding (ViSpec), a novel framework tailored for VLMs. ViSpec employs a lightweight vision adaptor module to compress image tokens into a compact representation, which is seamlessly integrated into the draft model's attention mechanism while preserving original image positional information. Additionally, we extract a global feature vector for each input image and augment all subsequent text tokens with this feature to enhance multimodal coherence. To overcome the scarcity of multimodal datasets with long assistant responses, we curate a specialized training dataset by repurposing existing datasets and generating extended outputs using the target VLM with modified prompts. Our training strategy mitigates the risk of the draft model exploiting direct access to the target model's hidden states, which could otherwise lead to shortcut learning when training solely on target model outputs. Extensive experiments validate ViSpec, achieving, to our knowledge, the first substantial speedup in VLM speculative decoding. Code is available at https://github.com/KangJialiang/ViSpec.

  • 5 authors
·
Sep 17

Adaptive Multi-Agent Reasoning via Automated Workflow Generation

The rise of Large Reasoning Models (LRMs) promises a significant leap forward in language model capabilities, aiming to tackle increasingly sophisticated tasks with unprecedented efficiency and accuracy. However, despite their impressive performance, recent studies have highlighted how current reasoning models frequently fail to generalize to novel, unseen problems, often resorting to memorized solutions rather than genuine inferential reasoning. Such behavior underscores a critical limitation in modern LRMs, i.e., their tendency toward overfitting, which in turn results in poor generalization in problem-solving capabilities. In this paper, we introduce Nexus Architect, an enhanced iteration of our multi-agent system framework, Nexus, equipped with a novel automated workflow synthesis mechanism. Given a user's prompt and a small set of representative examples, the Architect autonomously generates a tailored reasoning workflow by selecting suitable strategies, tool integrations, and adversarial techniques for a specific problem class. Furthermore, the Architect includes an iterative prompt refinement mechanism that fine-tunes agents' system prompts to maximize performance and improve the generalization capabilities of the system. We empirically evaluate Nexus Architect by employing an off-the-shelf, non-reasoning model on a custom dataset of challenging logical questions and compare its performance against state-of-the-art LRMs. Results show that Nexus Architect consistently outperforms existing solutions, achieving up to a 66% increase in pass rate over Gemini 2.5 Flash Preview, nearly 2.5times against Claude Sonnet 4 and DeepSeek-R1, and over 3times w.r.t. Llama 4 Scout.

  • 4 authors
·
Jul 18

A Survey of Frontiers in LLM Reasoning: Inference Scaling, Learning to Reason, and Agentic Systems

Reasoning is a fundamental cognitive process that enables logical inference, problem-solving, and decision-making. With the rapid advancement of large language models (LLMs), reasoning has emerged as a key capability that distinguishes advanced AI systems from conventional models that empower chatbots. In this survey, we categorize existing methods along two orthogonal dimensions: (1) Regimes, which define the stage at which reasoning is achieved (either at inference time or through dedicated training); and (2) Architectures, which determine the components involved in the reasoning process, distinguishing between standalone LLMs and agentic compound systems that incorporate external tools, and multi-agent collaborations. Within each dimension, we analyze two key perspectives: (1) Input level, which focuses on techniques that construct high-quality prompts that the LLM condition on; and (2) Output level, which methods that refine multiple sampled candidates to enhance reasoning quality. This categorization provides a systematic understanding of the evolving landscape of LLM reasoning, highlighting emerging trends such as the shift from inference-scaling to learning-to-reason (e.g., DeepSeek-R1), and the transition to agentic workflows (e.g., OpenAI Deep Research, Manus Agent). Additionally, we cover a broad spectrum of learning algorithms, from supervised fine-tuning to reinforcement learning such as PPO and GRPO, and the training of reasoners and verifiers. We also examine key designs of agentic workflows, from established patterns like generator-evaluator and LLM debate to recent innovations. ...

  • 12 authors
·
Apr 11

General Reasoning Requires Learning to Reason from the Get-go

Large Language Models (LLMs) have demonstrated impressive real-world utility, exemplifying artificial useful intelligence (AUI). However, their ability to reason adaptively and robustly -- the hallmarks of artificial general intelligence (AGI) -- remains fragile. While LLMs seemingly succeed in commonsense reasoning, programming, and mathematics, they struggle to generalize algorithmic understanding across novel contexts. Our experiments with algorithmic tasks in esoteric programming languages reveal that LLM's reasoning overfits to the training data and is limited in its transferability. We hypothesize that the core issue underlying such limited transferability is the coupling of reasoning and knowledge in LLMs. To transition from AUI to AGI, we propose disentangling knowledge and reasoning through three key directions: (1) pretaining to reason using RL from scratch as an alternative to the widely used next-token prediction pretraining, (2) using a curriculum of synthetic tasks to ease the learning of a reasoning prior for RL that can then be transferred to natural language tasks, and (3) learning more generalizable reasoning functions using a small context window to reduce exploiting spurious correlations between tokens. Such a reasoning system coupled with a trained retrieval system and a large external memory bank as a knowledge store can overcome several limitations of existing architectures at learning to reason in novel scenarios.

  • 4 authors
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Feb 26 2